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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
CLIMAR
Evaluation of climate change impacts and
adaptation responses for marine activities
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
CLIMAR
Evaluation of climate change impacts and
adaptation responses for marine activities
Project funded by Belgian Science Policy
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models:
José Ozer, Stéphanie Ponsar, Dries Van den Eynde
Arcadis Belgium: Renaat De Sutter, Annemie Volckaert,
Lieven De Smet
Flanders Hydraulics Research: Toon Verwaest, Katrien Van
der Biest
ILVO – Fisheries: Hans Polet, Els Vanderperren
Maritime Institute, University Gent: Frank Maes, Marian
Willekens
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Marbaix et al., 2004
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Stern, 2006
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
WP1
Definition and modelling of
climate change induced primary
impacts at North Sea scale
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased
storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc..
Definition and modelling
WP2
Deduction of climate change
induced secondary impacts
Case study - Coastal flooding
Modelling
Secondary impacts on the marine
ecosystem in general and related
socio-economic activities
Identification and
classifications
Case study – Fisheries sector
Impact assessment
WP3
Identification of adaptation
scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding
Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Marine ecosystem in general and
related socio-economic activities.
extrapolation of adaptation
scenario’s/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector
Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
WP4
Evaluation of adaptation
scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding
Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Marine ecosystem in general and
related socio-economic activities.
Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector
Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Elaboration of an evaluation
framework for adaptation
scenario’s/measures as a response to
climate induced impacts (North Sea)
Integrated
sustainability assessment
of adaptation
scenario's/measures
Evaluation of the effects of the
proposed adaptive strategies
(embedding in policy, practical
integration, implementation )
Formulation of recommendations
towards North Sea future policy and
its different socio-economical
activities.
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Primary impacts
Literature study
Analysis of measurements
–
Sea Level Rise
–
Waves
–
Wind speed and direction
–
Sea water temperature
Set up of climate change scenarios for Belgium
Use of numerical models to look at change in hydrodynamical
and sedimentological parameters
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea level rise
Data sets
–
–
–
1937-2003: monthly and yearly mean values of the Permanent Service
for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)
1980-2006: hourly values of the Flemish Governement, Maritieme
Dienstverlening en Kust (MDK)
1925-1979: high and low waters of MDK
Yearly mean values for 1927 – 2006
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Yearly mean values for 1927 - 2006
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Results
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Results
Constant trend: 1.69 mm/year
– Higher then Van Cauwenberghe for the period 1925 – 1998, i.e.
1.44 mm/year
Trend varying by step
– 1.41 mm/year before 1992
– 4.41 mm/year after 1992
Constant acceleration of the trend (2nd order polynomial)
– 0.72 mm/year in 1927
– 2.63 mm/year in 2006
Linear acceleration of the trend (3th order polynomial)
– 3.31 mm/year in 1927
– 0.93 mm/year in 1962
– 5.15 mm/year in 2006
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Predictions
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Conclusion
Rise of sea level at Oostende over the last 80 years is around
(at least) 1.69 mm/year
The rise of the sea level seems to increase, but more data are
necessary to confirm this
Global observations – literature
– In 20th century, the global sea level rise is estimated at 1.7±0.5
mm/year
– Using satellite measurements (altimeter), the sea level rise is
estimated at 3.1±0.7 mm/year over the period 1993-2003
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of waves
Data sets
–
Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust
Bol van Heist – 1978-2007
–
Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland
3 stations – Scheur West – 1980 (1985) – 2007
Time series
–
Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cyclus (+ residue)
Lineair regression
–
–
Maximal wave heights
Percentage of high wave heights
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Analysis of waves
1.4
bvh
bhg2
delo
schw
0.2
1.2
Significante golfhoogte (m)
0.1
0.8
0
-0.1
0.6
-0.2
0.4
jan
feb
mrt
apr
mei
jun
jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
1.1
bvh
bhg2
delo
schw
0.2
1.05
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
1
Significante golfhoogte (m)
Significante golfhoogte (m)
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Analysis of high waves
25
4.5
hs > 2m
hsmax
4
20
3.5
3
15
2.5
10
2
1.5
5
1
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0.5
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of waves
Lineair regression – different results
Bol van Heist: -0.0013 m/year
Brouwershavensche Gat 2: -0.0027 m/year
Deurlo: +0.0004 m/year
Scheur West: +0.0024 m/year
Lineair regression of high waves
–
–
Percentage high waves decreases
Maximal wave height dependent on the station
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of wind speed
Data sets
–
Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust
Westhinder – 1994-2007
–
Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland
2 stations – 1980 (1988) – 2007
–
Meteorological predictions of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Westhinder – 1955 - 2006
Time series
–
Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)
Lineair regression
–
–
Maximal wind speed
Percentage of high wind speeds
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Analysis of the wind speed
10
25
bhg2
vlra
whix
whid
8 Bft.
9.5
20
15
Percentage
Windsnelheid (m/s)
9
8.5
10
8
5
7.5
7
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Analysis of wind direction
1955-1964
1965-1974
1975-1984
1985-1994
1995-2004
2005-
200
100
0
-100
-200
-200
-100
0
100
200
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of wind speed and direction
Lineair regression – different results
Westhinder – NMI: -0.003 m/s/year
Vlakte van de Raan: wind speed increases
General: on the Belgian Continental Shelf: wind speed seems to
decrease
Report KMI – not yet available
Lineair regression of high wind speeds
Most results seems to indicate an increase in the high wind
speeds
Wind direction
Increase of winds from the West to West-south-west
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea water temperature
Data sets
–
–
British Oceanographic Data Centre
World Ocean Data Base 2005
Time series
–
–
Different boxes
Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)
Lineair regression
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea water temperature
12
’long.44’ using 1:2
’statout.44’ using 1:3
11.5
11
10.5
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
12
’long.22’ using 1:2
’statout.22’ using 1:3
11.5
11
10.5
10
9.5
9
8.5
– Increase temperature : 0.018 °C/year to 0.051 °C/year
– cfr. literature: +2-4°C in 2100
8
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Scenarios 2100
M
M+
W
W+
Worst
+2 °C
+2 °C
+4 °C
+4 °C
+4 °C
Change of circulation
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Winter precipitation
+8 %
+14 %
+16 %
+28 %
+28 %
Summer precipitation
+6 %
-20 %
+12 %
-40 %
-40 %
Wind speed
+0 %
+4 %
-2 %
+8 %
+8 %
+3,5 °C
+3,5 °C
Air temperature
Sea water temperature
+2,5 °C +2,5 °C +3,5 °C
Sea Level
+60 cm +60 cm +93 cm +93 cm +200 cm
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Changes in the hydrodynamic climate
Using the different scenarios for 2100
– Sea level rise
– Higher wind speeds
Use of different numerical models
– Hydrodynamic models: changes in currents, bottom stress, …
– Wave models: changes in significant wave height, erosion of the
beaches,…
– Sediment transport models: changes in erosion and
sedimentation patterns, …
Link with the Quest4D project
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on hydrodynamic climate
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on hydrodynamic climate
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on wave climate
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on wave climate
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Tourism – TCI indicator for attractiveness
of the coast
The TCI index is weighted and computed as follows (Amelung et al., 2007):
TCI = 2 * (4CID + CIA + 2R + 2S + W)
Subindex
Daytim e com fort Index (CID)
Daily com fort Index (CIA)
Precipitation (R)
Sunshine (S)
W ind speed (W )
Variable(s)
Maxim um daily tem perature
(°C)
Minim um
daily
relative
hum idity (%)
Mean daily tem perature
(°C)
Mean daily relative hum idity
(%)
Precipitation (m m )
Daily duration of sunshine
(hours)
W ind speed (m /s or km /hr)
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
Tourism – TCI indicator for attractiveness
of the coast
TCI- rating
Spring (March, April, May)
Summer (June, July, August)
Current
situation
Marginal
Mostly
very good
Autumn (September, October, Marginal
November)
# of months per year exhibiting 2
“very good” or better (TCI ?
70) climatic conditions
2020s
2050s
2080s
A1F: marginal
B1: marginal
A1F: very good
A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptable
B1: acceptable
B1: acceptable
A1F: excellent
A1F: excellent
B1: very good
B1: very good
B1: excellent
A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptable A1F: good
to good
B1: acceptable
B1: marginal
B1: acceptable
A1F: 3
A1F: 4-5
A1F: 5-6
B1: 2 - 3
B1: 4
B1: 4-5
(A1F rapid economic growth – B1 more sustainable growth)
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense – secondary impacts
Ecological impacts
– Change in habitat & biodiversity
Coastal erosion
Beach nourisment
Hard defences
Managed retreat
Economic impacts
– Losses - coastal structures, buildings, industry
Social impacts
–
Security
Victims of floodings
– Attractiveness of the coast
Higher natural value by managed retreat
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense – quantification
Risk calculations
–
–
–
–
Changes in beach profiles during storm
Chances for breakthrough of the dunes
Flooding
Damages and victims
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Good overview of the fisheries sector
–
–
–
–
Magnitude of fleet
Fishing grounds
Commercial species
External factors
Fuel prices
National and international regulations
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Secondary impacts of climate changes
– Ecological impacts
Geographical shift of species
Habitat change
Food availability
Growth - mortality - recruitment
COMPLEX – not only termperature is important
For different fish species effects are evaluated
– Economic impacts
Productivity
Risks for damages
– Social impacts
Employment
Safety
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Sole
– Commercial important
– Expected climate change effects
Higher temperature
–
–
–
–
Higher survival of demersale stadium
Decrease of winter mortality
Earlier spawning
Higher growth rate
Precipitation
– Possible change of the quality of the nursing grounds
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Adaptation strategies
– Other commercial species
– Other fishing techniques
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models
MUMM | BMM | UGMM
SEAMOCS Conference
Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statistics
Sliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Conclusions
CLIMAR
– Work in progress
– Results available on website:
http://www.arcadisbelgium.be/climar
http://www.mumm.ac.be/