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Vietnam’s Geopolitical Imperatives The Vietnamese Geography Vietnam is a slender finger of a country running from the Chinese border south to the Gulf of Thailand, occupying the eastern edge of the Indochinese Peninsula. Much of the country consists of densely forested highlands that fall to a coastal plain along the South China Sea. A unified nation state only since 1975, when North Vietnam conquered South Vietnam, the country continues to have two “heartlands” – a political core centered around Hanoi and Haiphong in the north and a commercial core centered around Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon) in the south. Most Vietnamese inhabit the narrow coastal plain, which extends from the Red River Delta in the north to the country’s southern tip. Vietnam is divided into three general regions – the Red River Delta and enveloping northern highlands (Tongking on French colonial-era maps), the central mountains (Annam, for Chaîne Annamitique), and the Mekong River Delta in the south (Cochin-China). The Delta region southwest of Ho Chi Minh City and extending to the country’s southern tip is a vast canal-laced plain barely above sea level that is one of the largest rice-growing regions in the world. Mountainous borders with China and Laos have provided natural barriers to invasion from the north and west, although the country’s narrow waist near Dong Hoi (only 40 kilometers across) is conducive to its being cut in half by an invading force from the east. An extensive coastline (some 3,500 kilometers, or Vietnam’s entire eastern and southern profile) has created both vulnerabilities to foreign encroachment and opportunities for a maritime presence. Vietnamese Geopolitical Imperatives Should the first imperative be maintaining the connection between the north highlands and the southern plains? A new and primarily defensive power, Vietnam must, above all, avoid being gobbled up by China. This is its grand strategy. For centuries in China’s orbit, Vietnam has long been a place of struggle against foreign domination. A millennium of Chinese rule was thrown off in the 9th century, when Vietnam first gained its own national identity, which the colonial French would try to subdue from the late 1850s until the mid-1950s. China has been periodically assertive in the years since, though it continues to serve as more of a role model for Vietnam than a regional adversary. To defend its sovereignty and quell internal dissent, Vietnam must modernize its large and formidable light-infantry army and develop a capable air force and navy without provoking China. Vietnam is relatively secure to the west due to the mountains and buffers of laos and Cambodia. It is vulnerable somewhat in the North to continued Chinese encroachment. But you miss the significance of its seas to the East. Vietnam has a need to strongly develop its domestic port system for coastal trade – the transportation infrastructure and weakness of the narrow waist is a vulnerability both to foreign action and to continued domestic differences between South and North. Vietnam has aggressively defended its claims to islands in the South China Sea as well – going so far as to engage the Chinese in firefights in the last decade. Protecting this sea approach is important. Vietnam may not be able to press too far outward, but it must protect coastal trade and near-in maritime approaches. Ensure that its neighbors to the west – Laos and Cambodia – remain submissive and nonthreatening (Laos is a much weaker “reforming Leninist society” while Cambodia is a failing state – a decade ago Cambodia may have been a failing state, but now it is a budding state, politically unified and entering the global economic and political community.). A member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since 1995, Vietnam must also position itself as a regional player among other ASEAN member states. Keep reaching outward. The country’s constant challenge has been to learn from as well as guard against the outside world. Once insulated by mountains and seas, Vietnam realized in the 20th century that it must become more internationalized if it wanted to progress. Ho Chi Minh learned about Marxism in France and lifted key portions of the U.S. Declaration of Independence in creating North Vietnam’s declaration. Since 1975, after generations of war, Vietnam has followed China’s lead in opening itself up to foreign investment and moving toward a more marketoriented economy. Reach inward as well. While Vietnam continues to liberalize its economy, it must also consolidate its bifurcated society and accommodate its growing population, now some 85 million people in a land area smaller than California. Two persistent cores could provide either balance or instability (if the central Annam region went one way or the other). Vietnam must also break down the domestic walls between rural and urban life. Outside the cities, village identity – steeped in Confucianism – has traditionally trumped national identity, and the country must address the growing economic disparity between rural and urban areas. This competing cores seems like the first and foremost imperative, with protection of borders from neighbors and protection of sea routes coming next. Who are the Vietnamese? The Vietnamese may seem united and warlike, given their stubborn resistance against the Chinese, French, Japanese and Americans. While 90 percent of the population is ethnic Vietnamese, there are lingering differences between stern northerners and freewheeling southerners. The remaining 10 percent is a mix of minorities, including Montagnard tribesmen who inhabit the highlands and are not fully integrated into society (the government has cracked down on these legendary hill people, many of whom are Christian and anti-Communist). Since 1975, an entire generation of Vietnamese has grown to maturity without experiencing the devastation of war. This has done much to heal wounds from 20th-century conflicts. From north to south and hamlet to city, the Vietnamese people for the most part are industrious, literate and optimistic about their country’s future. What role does the Mekong River play in Vietnam’s development? Just the rice culture, or transportation infrastructure?may want to emphasize two independent river deltas that form the basis for the development of two separate Vietnams. Also, is there any history of confrontation or conflict with Siam/Thailand, the other core power, or with Kampuchia/Cambodia?