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INDUSTRY REPORT //Borates INITIATING SECTOR COVERAGE STORMCROW April 21, 2015 Borates – Essential and Increasingly Hard to Get Essential and Critical: Boron is a rare element necessary for the production of E-glass and other borosilicate glasses used to make fiberglass mats and insulation, and labware or cookware that is resistant to thermal shock. Without boron, sourced primarily from four minerals, our modern world would be meaningfully different. At First Glance, There is Plenty: Annual production levels currently mean that Jon Hykawy, PhD President [email protected] Tom Chudnovsky Managing Partner [email protected] there is a global reserve of borates totaling many decades. But at the same time as demand is trending higher due to increasing levels of disposable income in countries such as China and India, tighter environmental laws are incenting the use of increasingly clean borate deposits, especially those containing minimal amounts of arsenic. These clean deposits are harder to come by, but there are examples of what would otherwise have been strong borate deposits that have been bypassed for development due to arsenic content. All Minerals are Not Equal: Of the four main minerals harvested to produce boron chemicals, only one of them contains minimal amounts of sodium. When making borosilicon glass, the level of sodium must be kept low, or the glass will lose its ability to tolerate thermal shock. Clean Colemanite is Cool: Our conclusion is that while demand will increase in coming years to the point that at least one additional mine equivalent to the largest in the world will be required, it would be advantageous for this supply to be composed primarily of low-arsenic colemanite, from a high grade and consequently low-cost source. Whether such a supply can be identified is something that we will discuss in later reports. See the end of report for important disclosures STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Borates – Essential and Increasingly Hard to Get Boron is a light metal that very few outside the chemical industry recognize, but one that is essential in our modern society. Truly rare within the Earth’s crust, at the same time that demand for its products is rising, the bulk of supply comes from only two geopolitical regions, and one of those will arguably become increasingly unstable in years to come. The largest use, globally, for boron is for glass. Boron is a critical and irreplaceable component in the fiberglass used in insulation and composites, and is also essential to making borosilicate glass that is resistant to thermal shock and high temperatures. Demand increases are due to growing global use of refrigeration, residential and commercial climate control, and consumer goods such as cookware. We will present an analysis of the borate industry, and our best estimates for the prices of basic materials such as minerals containing boron and boric acid. Boron – Definitely Not Boring If you are a scientist, then boron is not boring. Boron is a rare element, one that is produced in a very unusual fashion. Many of the light elements, like hydrogen and helium, were products of our early universe, condensing out of the primordial soup of basic particles as the very early universe cooled following the Big Bang. Other heavier elements were produced after stars completed their cycle of burning and some exploded into novae and supernovae, seeding their galaxies with elements like iron and gold. Boron has no simple way to be produced via these mechanisms. STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 2 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibit 1 – Elemental Abundance on Earth Source: USGS Instead, boron is produced mainly through a mechanism called cosmic ray spallation. Helium nuclei, for example, are accelerated to very high speeds by certain stellar processes and a few of these alpha particles eventually crash into another heavier nucleus here on Earth. The resulting collision can spall off pieces of the heavy nucleus, some of these eventually becoming stable isotopes of boron. Boron is essentially a byproduct of collisions between nuclei that resemble those conducted in particle accelerators here on Earth. And if you are an investor, then boron should not bore you, either. Boron is used in a wide variety of products, demand for many of which are growing rapidly as societies become more affluent and demand larger amounts of simple products such as insulation and glassware. STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 3 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibit 2 – Boron End Uses (2012) Source: ETi Mine Works Detergents and bleaches are perhaps the oldest and the most pedestrian of modern boron applications, exemplified by the iconic “20 Mule Team Borax”. There are significant numbers of substitute chemicals and chemistries available to achieve similar results. This is perhaps the most sensitive end-use market with respect to boron price; if boron prices markedly rise, then substitutes will replace boron. Agriculture composes some 14% of use, and involves boron being added to fertilizers as an essential micronutrient. All major crop types, globally, are susceptible to boron deficiency, and all fertilization programs, of necessity, involve boron. There is no substitute. The alternative is to allow yield per hectare to fall as a result of boron deficiency in the crop. Avoidance of boron use thus involves a calculation that incorporates price being paid for the final crop and the loss that can be suffered before treatment is economically preferable. Numerous ceramics contain boron. Two of the hardest and most resilient materials in the modern engineering arsenal are boron nitride and boron carbide. The softest type of boron nitride is its hexagonal form, and this material is used as a graphite replacement in lubricants (especially where the chemical and thermal stability of graphite is insufficient) and in cosmetics. Cubic boron nitride is only slightly softer than diamond, but with better thermal and electrical STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 4 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT properties. In fact, cubic boron nitride is used as a grinding medium for steels and other ferrous metals, because using diamond for the same task would result in carbon being dissolved into the metal and changing its properties. Boron nitride, on the other hand, is insoluble in steels and ferrous alloys. Boron carbide is slightly softer than either diamond or cubic boron nitride, but much easier and less expensive to manufacture than cubic boron nitride, and so is widely used in many applications including abrasives and even ballistic armor. Boron has a strong ability to absorb thermal neutrons within a nuclear reactor. In fact, the propensity of materials used in nuclear reactors to absorb neutrons is usually compared to boron, as boron equivalency in parts per million. Boron carbide is often used as a material within nuclear reactors, because it is hard and strong and capable of withstanding extreme temperatures. When boron does absorb a neutron, the 7B (since 7B is the only natural isotope of boron) momentarily becomes 8B, and then the 8B decays to an excited state of 8Be which then quickly falls apart into two He nuclei. There are no long-lived radioactive byproducts that result from neutrons being absorbed by boron, so not only is the reaction very clean but boron acts as a “neutron poison” and thus provides a mechanism to shut down a reactor rapidly, should this become necessary. Whether used as a structural material within the reactor or as a “neutron poison”, these uses of boron would be contained within the “Other” category in the figure above. However, by far the largest use of boron is in glass, either as a part of the making of glass fiber, or, to a lesser degree, the manufacture of borosilicate glass. The two are not equivalent. When making glass fibers, a small amount of either boron oxide or borax pentahydrate is added to the melt to control certain properties. The most common glass fiber in use today, E-glass, contains a substantial amount of boron. E-glass (named because it was originally developed for applications in electronics) is commonly used as the glass fibers in glass fiberreinforced polymers, or fiberglass composites. According to glassproperties.com, a typical E-glass contains about 55% SiO2 by mass, and 7% B2O3. There are a variety of other types of glass fiber produced, for specialty applications, but E-glass is the bulk of modern glass fiber production and is the largest source of demand for boron, worldwide. A typical borosilicate glass contains 12-15% B2O3, 80% SiO2 and the balance other oxides, primarily Al2O3. Boron is an essential component of the final product, giving the borosilicate glass its famed strength and its ability to resist thermal shock. A commonly known brand name for borosilicate is PYREX® by Corning. While there has been some controversy recently regarding the current STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 5 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT formulation of PYREX® and its present ability to withstand thermal shocks, many other manufacturers continue to produce borosilicate for both laboratory and home use. This demand for borosilicate is growing at rates much higher than GDP, as disposable incomes in developing economies such as China and India serve to allow the purchase of luxury items by a burgeoning middle class. A further growth area, encompassed within the category of borosilicate glass, is the use of borosilicates as flat panel display glass. While newer materials such as Dow’s Gorilla Glass (which contains no meaningful amount of boron) are used as the front surface for touchscreens and displays, Corning has also previously announced Willow Glass, a borosilicate formulation that can be made to be very thin and flexible and is used as a backplane material in displays. Corning has also stated that Willow Glass is targeted at lighting and solar photovoltaic applications. Boron Demand – Rare Material Meets Growing Demand We believe that we can fairly readily predict demand for boron by evaluating each of the demand segments for the element. All things equal, most especially price, we believe that the growth in boron demand from detergents is best described by global GDP. At present, the latest data from the World Bank predicts the following: Exhibit 3 – Global GDP Results and Forecasts Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth 2.5% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% Source: World Bank Agriculture use should scale with global agricultural output. Boron is a nonsubstitutable micronutrient in all crop types, so there is no danger of boron use in this application declining markedly if, say, the world were suddenly to shift more heavily to rice production, as an example. The OECD and the FAO of the United Nations publish their forecasts for various agricultural commodities. The growth they forecast through 2023 regarding total agricultural outputs (including all cereals and oilseeds) is as below: STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 6 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibit 4 – Global Agricultural Crop Output Growth, by year Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Growth 7.68% 0.16% 0.77% 1.16% 1.51% 1.57% 1.58% 1.48% 1.32% 1.33% 1.36% Source: OECD and FAO We believe that the above data should allow us to estimate boron demand for agriculture and detergents fairly well. Ceramics containing boron are largely used in abrasives and cutting tools, and the manufacturing of steel. It would seem to us that growth in steel output is the best proxy for growth in ceramic demand, especially ceramics containing boron. The World Steel Association published data showing that growth in steel output in 2013 was 5.8% higher than 2012, but 2014 output was only 1.2% higher than 2013 levels. Forecasts for 2015 call for 2% growth, but the WSA does not publish longer term forecasts. We will assume a much cooler demand picture for steel in China, and use 1.5% as our CAGR beyond 2015 Finally, we need to consider growth in glass demand for boron. Glass demand arises from two sources, namely E-glass (and similar fibers) used for fiberglass that is predominantly used in making composite materials such as fiberglassreinforced plastics, and borosilicate glass used in making labware and cookware. Rio Tinto has published data that suggest the firm believes that about 18% of demand for boron in glassmaking is due to borosilicate glass, the balance from making fiber. The growth in the fiberglass sector is easier for us to estimate. Firms such as Lucintel (with a February 2015 report) and Research and Markets (with a report dated 2012) variously estimate growth rates for fiberglass consumption in the range of 4.7% to 6.3% CAGR, with end points of 2019. We will assume the lower range of 4.7% and extend that CAGR to 2023 for our purposes. We believe that global borosilicate glass consumption is going to be related more closely to the rise in disposable income. Trading Economics maintains an ongoing database of ARIMA-modelled forecasts for disposable personal income across a broad swath of nations, globally. By using existing data from 2013 and 2014 as well as forecasts to 2020, we have calculated an average growth rate for global disposable income of some 6.9%. This is far healthier than GDP levels, and STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 7 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT supports the levels of growth seen in such markets as electronics and fashion goods. To summarize then, we take the breakdown in boron demand shown graphically in Exhibit 2, and apply the market size as estimated by data from ETi Mine Works, the USGS and Rio Tinto for 2012, namely 1.92 million tonnes of B2O3 equivalent, and we can calculate the relevant usage of boron in each of the categories in 2012. We then apply growth rates, such as global GDP to the “Other” and “Detergents” category, global agricultural growth to the “Agricultural” category, and global disposable income to the subcategory of borosilicate glass, and we determine future demand for boron. Exhibit 5 – Calculated Boron Demand Forecasts (in B2O3 tonnes) Source: Stormcrow Boron Supply – Oligopoly, Meet Pending Scarcity The current market in boron is supplied by essentially two firms. Rio Tinto, mainly through its Boron Mine located near, perhaps unsurprisingly, Borax, CA. The Boron Mine is the single largest mine source for boron minerals and, in fact, is the largest open-pit mine in California. The boron in this project is of such high grade and quality that it was originally mistaken for a gypsum mine. Roughly 25% of global boron production, primarily in the form of borax and kernite, came STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 8 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT from this one production source in 2012, according to data from Rio Tinto and ETi Mine Works. The bulk of remaining global boron comes from the ETi Mine Works, a Turkish state-owned company with the exclusive, nation-wide mining rights to boroncontaining minerals. With Turkey having roughly 72% of global boron reserves, there is little question that ETi will remain the leader in the industry. ETi produced just less than half of global boron output from 2012 to 2014, according to data from Rio Tinto, ETi and the USGS. The balance of production is from various suppliers in China, South America (predominantly Argentina and Chile) and Russia. None of these suppliers is capable of dramatic expansions in production capacity, none of these various suppliers is particularly large or maintains a dramatically lower cost base than others, most especially compared to Rio Tinto. Because the processing of a borate concentrate is relatively simple, if should be unsurprising that grade is a consistently important feature among producing mines. In the minor metals, especially those that are either higher priced or that require more extensive processing, it is not unusual to see deposits of lower grade enter the market. This can be because of a need to diversify sources of supply or because a particular mineral may allow for less expensive processing, in spite of lower grade. However, in the case of borates, the emphasis has always been on grade within the more commonly available minerals, all of which are roughly equivalent in terms of processing requirements. Exhibit 6 – Boron Producers (2010) Source: Roskill “Boron: Global Industry Markets and Outlook”, 12th Edition, 2010 STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 9 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Along with its producing properties, Rio Tinto does possess one other interesting asset in the space. The company holds claim over a project in Serbia, located near the town of Loznica, which is itself about 100 km from Belgrade. The project contains a lithium-boron mineral they called jadarite. In a strange coincidence, the chemical formula for jadarite, LiNaSiB3O7(OH), is very close to that of the fictional material kryptonite, the bane of Superman! That aside, jadarite could prove to be a useful source for both lithium and boron in years to come. However, at present, the project is at the pre-feasibility stage, and Rio Tinto projects that it would take six years to move it to production, post any decision to do so. The deposit, at present, contains some 2.25 million tonnes of Li 2O and 16.3 million tonnes of B2O3. Needless to say, we are not likely to run out of either lithium or boron soon, given this is only for one zone in the overall deposit area. Almost all global boron production comes from four minerals. These four are: 1. Colemanite (Ca2B6O11·5 H2O), which is an alteration product of ulexite 2. Ulexite ((NaCaB5O6(OH)6·5(H2O)), also known as “TV stone” for its optical properties 3. Tincal/borax (Na2[B4O5(OH)4]·8H2O) 4. Kernite (Na2B4O6(OH)2·3(H2O)) All of the mineral forms can be used commercially, and many of them can appear in a single deposit, as their formation can depend on local conditions and alteration effects. However, the above presents an interesting opportunity. With kernite and borax strongly dominating the production from the Boron Mine, and with Turkish production spread across all minerals, there is a preponderance of sodium borates in production today. However, the production of both E-glass and borosilcate glass requires low levels of sodium, so that additional colemanite production would be advantageous. Of course, this new colemanite production also needs to have low arsenic levels, or the lower cost of producing E-glass from colemanite will be offset by higher tailings disposal costs. In 2012, various sources (the USGS, ETi Mine Works, Rio Tinto) estimated that global production capacity for borates, in B2O3 equivalent form, was some 2.2 million tonnes per year, up from just under 2.0 million tonnes per year in 2008 (Roskill). ETi Mine Works planned expansion of its own production capacity by only 3,000-4,000 tonnes in 2013, while Rio Tinto has previously described the potential to increase production from its Boron Mine by at least 200,000 tpa by 2017, if required. Along with other production increases from other global players, it seems feasible that global production could rise as high as 2.6 million STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 10 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT tonnes per year in the medium term (by 2018), solely due to production expansion of existing projects. A major limiting factor in greater potential production growth is a contaminant commonly found in boron deposits, arsenic. Arsenic is, obviously, toxic to humans and animals, and is subject to increasingly stringent regulation regarding its emission and long-term disposal. Those processing boron-containing minerals and making boric acid or other chemicals now need to concern themselves with increasing costs owing to the arsenic in their feedstock supply. Naturally, if possible, they would rather obtain boron-bearing minerals that have as low an arsenic content as possible. Failing that, many chemical manufacturers in developed areas of the world would rather receive a chemical feedstock, rather than minerals. In effect, they have transferred the arsenic problem to the entity producing those chemicals. As an example, US Borax co-owned a colemanite property near Magdalena, Mexico, with Vitro, the largest glassmaker in Mexico at the time. Mine construction at this high-grade property has been postponed repeatedly, owing to high arsenic content. Thus, there is little concern regarding global boron supply until about 2019, in our view. However, with major projects such as Rio Tinto’s Jadar Mine requiring at least six years of development, there may well prove to be a gap in supply and demand, for at least a few years. Bridging this gap is not being assisted by the current poor junior mining market, which is making it increasingly difficult for new deposits to be developed. As far as potential investors in this space are concerned, however, they should note that a good boron project is not merely one with high grades or strong existing infrastructure. A good project requires those, plus either a relative scarcity of arsenic in their ore or the ability to deal with the arsenic issue locally and inexpensively. Price Projections – Oligopoly Now and Into the Future The market for boron minerals is a hard one to study. Even most paid sources for industrial minerals pricing do not carry data regarding minerals such as colemanite or kernite. The boron market is not huge, albeit it is critical to various industries including fiberglass and agriculture. Splitting that small market into multiple minerals makes for a very difficult study. However, one common feedstock chemical for industry is boric acid. Substantial amounts of borates are converted to boric acid, largely through the application of either sulfuric acid or hydrochloric acid, and heat in the form of recycled STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 11 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT production liquor that already contains some boric acid. The products include sulfates as waste. We have obtained data regarding boric acid pricing over the last six years: Exhibit 6 – Boric Acid Pricing Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Price (US$/t) 660 640 960 920 790 730 Source: Borax Argentina/Orocobre The other major contributor to boric acid cost is sulfuric acid. These prices have tracked as follows: Exhibit 7 – Sulfuric Acid Pricing Year Price (US$/t) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 91 191 195 174 159 Source: US Department of Labor These two prices have a correlation coefficient of 0.816. That is, roughly 67% of their price movement over the years is related to the price movement of the other. We examined offset correlations between boric and sulfuric acid prices (that is, we examined, for example, whether boric acid prices were better explained by sulfuric acid prices for the preceding year), but were unable to improve the correlation. Sulfuric acid’s contribution to the cost of boric acid is meaningful, so a correlation makes sense. For example, when producing boric acid from colemanite, stoichiometrically, or in perfect chemical ratio, each tonne of boric acid produced requires 529 kg of sulfuric acid, as the formula for making boric acid is: Ca2B6O11 · 5 H2O + 2 H2SO4 + 6 H2O → 2 CaSO4 · 2 H2O + 6 H3BO3 There will, naturally, be some waste, so the amount of sulfuric acid is likely marginally larger than indicated. Nevertheless, in 2014 only about US$84/t of the price paid for boric acid of US$730/t was consumed by sulfuric acid costs. STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 12 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT As well, based on the chemical formulae of the anhydrous boron minerals, each tonne of boric acid requires: 1.01 tonnes of colemanite 1.02 tonnes of ulexite 0.96 tonnes of tincal 0.89 tonnes of kernite The best projections that we can develop on boric acid pricing are based on the correlation to sulfuric acid. In plotting the prices of sulfuric and boric acid against one another, we note that the appearance of the two resembles a power curve. Thus, we performed a least-squares regression between the two, fitting a curve of the form: 𝐵 𝑃𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐 = 𝐴 (𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑐 ) + 𝐶 Fitting the data from Exhibits 6 and 7 to the above equation yields A = 2.05x10-8, B = 4.438 and C = 634.1. These data give a strong fit to the existing data through the late global recession and to the present day. Exhibit 7 – Actual (bue) versus Fitted (orange) Data, Boric vs. Sulfuric Acid Prices Source: Stormcrow STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 13 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT If we now apply the above formula to future estimates of sulfuric acid pricing, we can derive our projections for future boric acid pricing. Because sulfuric acid is such an important chemical commodity, there are a number of long-term forecasts available. We have chosen one such, produced by Nexant for their client, Tenaska Taylorville. The forecast we apply is corrected to give the same historical results as reported by the US Department of Labor figures, above. The resulting Nexant forecast for sulfuric acid prices is thus: Exhibit 8 – Projections for Sulfuric Acid Pricing Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Price (US$/t) 134 137 140 144 147 150 154 157 161 Source: Nexant, Stormcrow Applying the above formula to the sulfuric acid price projections above yields the following price projections for boric acid: Exhibit 9 – Stormcrow Projections for Boric Acid Pricing Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Price (US4/t) 691 696 703 712 719 727 739 748 762 Source: Stormcrow These data also allow us to calculate boron mineral prices, if we so wish. For example, let us calculate the pricing of one of the more commonly used boronbearing minerals, colemanite. We have previously determined that making a tonne of boric acid requires 0.53 tonnes of sulfuric acid. We also know that making a tonne of boric acid requires at least 1.01 tonnes of colemanite. Without allowing for any profit margin to the boric acid maker, then, the allowed margin available to buy colemanite is given by: 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 = 𝑃𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐 − 0.53 𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑐 1.01 It should be clear that we are likely underestimating the price that can be paid for colemanite using this method. Anyone making boric acid by this route is likely STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 14 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT making their own sulfuric acid from sulfur, or perhaps even has excess sulfuric acid from another process or source. However, this process may show us a useful trend in what is likely to occur to colemanite, and to the other boron minerals. Exhibit 10 – Trend for Available Colemanite Pricing due to Margin Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Sulfuric (US$/t) 134 137 140 144 147 150 154 157 161 Boric (US$/t) 691 696 703 712 719 727 739 748 762 Margin (US$/t) 614 618 622 629 635 642 651 659 670 Source: Stormcrow In order to correct for the problem that boric acid manufacturers may be making their own sulfuric acid at much lower cost, and thus freeing up margin that can pay for scarce arsenic-free colemanite or other boron minerals, we can look at past colemanite pricing, and scale those values accordingly. Obviously, boric acid prices vary from region to region, since both sulfuric acid and boric acid are regional commodities that are not shipped huge distances owing to their relatively low prices. The Indian website www.zauba.com quotes values for 40% B2O3 content colemanite from Turkey at averages of US$496/t in 2013 and US$497/t in 2014. Once again, we must scale our units properly, as 40% B2O3 is the equivalent of 60% colemanite concentrate, but we believe that this suggests that pure colemanite concentrate would have been priced at US$826/t in these two years. Local technical grade boric acid pricing was US$839/t in 2014 and US$828/t in 2013, both according to www.zauba.com. To us, this means that we can simply scale the colemanite pricing of 2014 and 2015 with the change in margin available from Exhibit 10, above. Thus, our medium-term forecast for boric acid and colemanite is: STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 15 STORMCROW BORATES INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibit 11 – Medium-Term Colemanite (40% B2O3) Forecasts, Boric Acid (99.9+%) and Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Boric (US$/t) 691 696 703 712 719 727 739 748 762 Colemanite (US$/t) 505 509 512 519 524 531 539 547 558 Source: Stormcrow Conclusion – Borates Boast Bountiful Bottom-line It would appear clear to us, from our examination of the industry, that the entry of one or even a few smaller players into the boron market, to break the effective Rio Tinto/ETi oligopoly, would be welcome, both to buyers and to the financial markets. In most commodity markets, having at least four or five suppliers is desirable, but at present in the boron space the number of truly meaningful suppliers has been limited to just two. On the other hand, the market pricing we have determined above describes a space that is well supplied, but not one in which excessive supply is trying to find a home. It would appear that the borate market will require additional supply by 2019 or 2020, and will require new supply of at least 300,000 tonnes per year by 2023. There is ample room for new suppliers to enter the market, each with output of 5-10% of current global production, within the next several years. However, any new entrants to the market must contend with a pricing environment which is unlikely to rocket higher, and they must produce a product that is increasingly clean of arsenic and other toxins. This means that either the new producing deposit must be arsenic free, a rare beast in the boron space, or the junior company must possess technology that allows them to remove arsenic efficiently and inexpensively. It is clear, at prices of more than US$500/t, that a junior miner producing high quality and clean boron mineral concentrates from a high-grade deposit, preferably in the form of calcium borates such as colemanite due to its applicability in the manufacturing of E-glass, and in quantities of 100,000 to 200,000 tpa, can make money. The trick for investors, and for us in our future work, will be to identify the companies that can meet this fairly rigorous set of requirements. STORMCROW.CA | PAGE 16 Keywords Industry Boron, Borates, Critical Materials, Mining, Industrial Minerals, Borosilicate Relevant Rio Tinto plc – RIO:LON Companies Eti Mine Works – Private Orocobe Minerals – ORL:TSX Erin Ventures – EV:TSXV Bacanora Minerals Ltd – BCN:TSXV Why do we use keywords? We feel people who could stand to benefit from the contents of this report, are not solely ones who already follow the specific company or sector discussed herein. As such, we hope to provide this free service to as wide an audience as possible—and keywords help to this end. Important Disclosures Stormcrow Capital Ltd. (“Stormcrow”) is a financial and technical/scientific consulting firm that provides its clients with some or all of the following services: (i) an assessment of the client’s industry, business plans and operations, market positioning, economic situation and prospects; (ii) certain technical and scientific commentary, analysis and advice that is within the expertise of Stormcrow’s staff; (iii) advice regarding optimization strategies for the client’s business and capital structure; and (iv) opinions regarding the future expected value of the client’s equity securities so as to allow the client to then make capital market, capital budgeting and capital structure plans. Stormcrow does publish research reports for general and regular circulation. 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Stormcrow intends to provide regular market updates on the affairs of the Company (at Stormcrow’s discretion) and make these updates publicly available at www.stormcrow.ca. Readers who wish to receive notice when such updates become available, should browse to www.stormcrow.ca/research and click the “Subscribe to Research Distributions” link. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that Stormcrow believes to be reliable. Stormcrow does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information found in this report and Stormcrow may not have undertaken any independent investigation to confirm or verify such information. Opinions contained in this report represent the true opinion of Stormcrow and the author(s) at the time of publication. Any securities described in this research report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. 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No representation is being made that any investment or security will or is likely to achieve the return or performance estimated herein. There can be sharp differences between expected performance results and the actual results. Dissemination of Research This research report is widely available to the public via its website: www.stormcrow.ca/research Investment Rating Criteria We do not provide an investment rating, beyond indicating whether the target price exceeds current trading ranges by a reasonable range, indicated as “Positive”, or whether the target price is either below or roughly equivalent to the current trading range, indicated as “Negative”. Each investor has an individual target return in mind, we leave it to the individual investor to determine how our target and the current price fit in their portfolio.