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Regional Economic Policies Prof. Cristina Brasili 2014-2015 Growth Theory Economic Growth and the factors which contribute to it 1.Economic Growth We would like to respond to the question posed by Helpman in 2004: “What makes some countries rich and others poor?” 1.Economic Growth In the pre-industrial period production and population growth followed a malthusian model “extensive” economic growth: Growth close to 0 Unchanged standard of living 1. Economic Growth World per capita GDP over the last 2000 years in 1990 dollars 7000 6.012 6000 5000 4000 3000 445 667 2000 1000 0 Source: an elaboration of Maddison's data Economic Growth The phases of economic development after the start of the industrial revolution “Intensive” modern growth began with the industrial revolution: -production grew more than the population which meant that there was An increase in productivity Around 1820 the world's population reached one billion 1. Economic Growth Maddison identified five phases of economic development after the start of the industrial revolution: 1. 1820-1870 2. 1870-1913 3. 1913-1950 4. 1950-1973 5. 1973 to today 1.Economic Growth There are four principal causes of growth: 1. Technological progress 1. The accumulation of physical capital 1. The growth of knowledge 1. The progressive integration of the world economy Structural changes in the economy and the availability of natural resources have also played important roles in growth 1.Economic Growth The motors of economic growth: Technological progress The industrial revolution involved changes in productivity, resources and the productive processes. - Mechanisation of work - Natural vegetal, animal and mineral resources and raw materials, later replaced by artificial ones - The substitution of natural sources of energy by artificial ones (Watt's steam engine, mechanical energy obtained from coal) 1.Economic Growth - Between 1820 and 1990 income increased 14 fold in real terms, while energy consumption increased 7 fold. - However there was a 14 fold increase in useful energy consumption 1.Economic Growth Technological innovation takes place at different scales: - incremental improvements (or learning by doing) - Completely new inventions (or changing the technological paradigms Rossi S. 2009) and their general use 1.Economic Growth The wave of technological progress - textiles 1762-94 -railways 1830-47 -mass production techniques and the automobile industry, late19th - early 20th Century -Information technology 19611981 1.Economic Growth Modern economic growth is characterised by: Rapid growth in per capita productivity Increase in the productivity of the workforce Profund changes in the economic structure Changes in the social structure and the governing ideology The more developed nations tend to take over other countries Economic growth only affects a limited area 1.Economic Growth Modern growth causes a significant increase in international inequality. The present inequalities have their origin in the period of sustained growth. 1.Economic Growth In 1820 there were similar conditions for development, but the per capita GDP in Europe was three times that of Africa, while today it is 13 times greater. 1.Economic Growth Long term growth and the economic cycle Reasonably large fluctuations in growth inside the long term trends of a period. Gap between actual and potential production 1.Economic Growth Economic cycle Fluctuations due to shocks which impact the aggregate demand for consumption and investment (as in the present crisis) or shocks which affect the total supply (increases in the price of the productive factors) 1.Economic Growth Growth and the economic cycle: the cases of the USA, Japan and the Congo - USA: a regular annual growth rate of 1.9%. Today a US citizen has a standard of living which is 12 times greater than that of a US citizen in 1870 - Japan: slow growth until 1950. After WWII an annual growth rate of 4.5%. For a man of 70 his standard of living has increased more than eight fold during his lifetime 1.Economic Growth Growth and the economic cycle: the cases of the USA, Japan and the Congo - Congo: the population grew very rapidly between 1950 and 2003, at 2.7% per year, while production only grew by 0.8% annually. This means that the per capita GDP fell by -1.9% per year and was halved over a period of 38 years 1.Economic Growth Growth and the economic cycle: over a long period of time small differences in the annual growth rate result in great differences in income 1.Economic Growth Economic growth: Past rates of economic growth explain at a statistically significant level (correlation 0.65) the present levels of development (for the period between 1960 and 2003 for 156 countries) However the conditions have changed in many countries with the passage of time 1.Economic Growth Economic growth: it is important to study paths of growth If however the levels of growth are compared with the rates of growth, there were high levels of instability in the periods between 1960 and 1980 and between 1980 and 2003 1.Economic Growth -Human development An alternative approach to using per capita income -Proposed by Amartya Sen 1.Economic Growth Let us return to the original question: “What makes some countries rich and others poor?” Basically we can reply that the difference depends on their different “productivity” 2. Growth Factors GDP____= GDP___ * Popolation employed employed ___ * total workforce total workforce popolation -productivity of the work -employment rate -economic activity rate Contribute to each component of the per capita GDP Growth factors The most relevant differences in per capita GDP are connected to important differences in productivity. 2. Growth Factors Accumulation of capital plays a central role in the neo-classical approach: differences in development are due to the rate of savings, the structure of individual preferences and the total productivity of the different factors. 2. Growth Factors The theory of endogenous growth emphasises the importance of the accumulation of human capital and technological progress. Furthermore, accumulation of capital, technological progress and increasing knowledge do not “contribute” to growth but are, indeed, GROWTH itself. 2. Growth Factors: Immediate and fundamental income Endogenous Partially endogenous Exogenous endowment of the production factors international integration geographical characteristics Fonte: Rodrik, Princeton University Press, 2003 productivity istitutions Useful indicators of economic development INDICATORS SOURCE Per Capita GDP in ppp National statistical institutions (ISTAT for Italy), EUROSTAT, ONU, WB, PWT, OECD HDI indices for human development UNDP (Human Development Report) Gini indices National statistical institutions, EUROSTAT, ONU, WB, PWT, OECD Poverty indices UNDP (Human Development Report) Employment rate National statistical institutions, EUROSTAT, ONU, WB, PWT, OECD Activity rate National statistical institutions, ONU, WB, EUROSTAT, PWT, OECD Unemployment rate National statistical institutions, ONU, WB, EUROSTAT, PWT, OECD Structure of the production system National statistical institutions, WB EUROSTAT, ONU, OECD Openness of the system National statistical institutions, WB EUROSTAT, Useful indicators of economic development (continued) INDICATORS SOURCES Indicators on FDI National statistical institutions Indicators on education and training National statistical institutions, ONU, WB, EUROSTAT, UNESCO OECD Indicators on R&D and economic creativity National statistical institutions, ONU, WB, EUROSTAT, OECD Indicators on savings National statistical institutions, WB Indicators on investment National statistical institutions, WB Environmental indicators ONU, WB, UNDP, HDU, OECD Health indicators OMS, ONU, WB demographic indicators OMS, OIL, WB Institutional indicators ONU, WB, Trasparency International etc. BEYOND GDP: A NEW WELL-BEING INDEX Presentation and discussion of the “Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi” report, Bologna, December 2009 At the conference “Beginning with “beyond GDP”, Enrico Giovannini, the president of Istat, stated: In Istanbul the Prime Minister of Bhutan, Lyonpyo Jigmi y Thinley, stated: “We have used GDP to determine wrongfully what is in fact the state of well-being of a country … GDP is necessary but inadequate, and we need to develop additional indices that would tell a more comprehensive, a more holistic story about how human society is progressing … The human being has two needs, the needs of the body and the needs of the mind, and what we have focused on so far is mostly the body, perhaps only the body … So, it’s a paradigm shift that we need to make”. In some ways we have concentrated too much on material wellbeing and not enough on immaterial factors. Thus we need to change the paradigms.” To study: Capitoli Primo e Secondo, pp.9-64 Capitolo Ottavo pp.196-229 La crescita delle nazioni, fatti e teorie di Vittorio Daniele, Rubbettino Editore, 2008 Fonte: nostre elaborazioni su dati ISTAT-COEWEB