Download Lake Tahoe Real Estate Report Quarter Three, 2013

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Report
Quarter Three, 2013
Quarter-three 2013 compared to Quarter-two, 2013
Y-O-Y comparison between quarter-three 2013
and quarter-three 2012
Notes and analysis for each region
median sales price timelines from 2006 through Quarter-three, 2013
for prominent regions at North Lake Tahoe
Prepared by Bill Dietz
President of Tahoe Luxury Properties – Sales
Direct: 530.584.3454
Main: 800.581.8828
Email: [email protected]
Website: tluxp.com
Main: 800.581.8828
CA License #01431063
Website: tluxp.com
NV License #B0027100
This report allows us to examine the third quarter year-over-year as well as
quarter-one through quarter-three, 2013. In summary, the Tahoe market
continues to see overall positive growth, strengthening median sales prices,
and sales volume.
The median sales timeline report denotes trends from 2006 to present-date.
Please feel free to contact Tahoe Luxury Properties for additional information
about the current state of the Tahoe market.
Incline Village/Crystal Bay, Truckee, Tahoe Sierra MLS,
& California’s side of the Lake Tahoe Basin.
Includes a comparison among single-family homes in
North Lake Tahoe regions including:
Incline Village & Crystal Bay, NV (lakefront and non-lakefront homes);
Downtown Truckee, Glenshire, Prosser, Tahoe Donner, Doner Lake, Donner
Summit, Sierra Meadows, Lahontan, Old Greenwood, and Martis Camp;
Lake Tahoe, CA’s north and west shores; Truckee and Donner Lake, CA; and ski
resort communities in the North Lake Tahoe area;
Homes on the California side of the Lake Tahoe Basin.
Summary
Median Price
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
$1,000,000
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Q3, 2012
Q2, 2013
Q3, 2013
Incline & Truckee
Entire
Crystal Bay
Tahoe MLS
Tahoe
Basin
(CA Side)
Sales Volume
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y. Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
350
292 290
300
307
250
200
161 172 174
150
100
Q3, 2012
117
110
76
57 60 56
50
0
Incline &
Crystal Bay
Truckee
Entire Tahoe Tahoe Basin
MLS
(CA Side)
Q2, 2013
Q3, 2013
Lake Tahoe’s Nevada side continues to
impress with five lakefront closings in
Q3 of 2013, compared to only 1 in
2012. The high sale of Q3 was the
$19,750,000 residence closing at 915
Lakeshore in Incline Village. This is the
second-highest sale of the year. Expect
median price and sales volume to head
in this upward trend through the end of
the year and then pick up again in late
spring.
Median price continues to push upward
across most segments. The only
quarter-over-quarter decrease was in
Incline Village/Crystal Bay. That
decrease was a result of the meteoric rise
in that median price in Q2. The yearover-year median price still increased
23% in Incline/Crystal Bay - the largest
gain of any segment. The NV price
increases continue to be driven by a
favorable tax climate in the state,
especially as compared to neighboring
California. Sales volume is generally up
in most segments but expect to see sales
volume slow as the inventory continues
to slim down. This should continue to
put upward pressure on prices.
Increasing interest rates on loans may
temper the sales activity and prices
gains, but Tahoe is a big cash market so
I don't expect to have a major influence.
Sources: Tahoe Luxury Properties,
Tahoe Sierra MLS, and Incline Village
MLS
Lakefronts
Includes single-family Tahoe lakefront homes and estates
located at California's north and west shores; and
Nevada's Incline Village and Crystal Bay.
Summary:
Median Price
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
$6,000,000
$4,650,000
$5,000,000
The third quarter experienced
solid movement in the lakefront
segment. While the data sample is
relatively small, a 43% increase of
the median price year-over-year
for Q3 is impressive.
$5,300,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$3,025,000
Q3, 2012
Q2, 2013
$2,000,000
Q3, 2013
$1,000,000
Sources: Tahoe Luxury
Properties; Tahoe Sierra MLS;
Incline Village MLS.
$0
Lakefronts
Sales Volume
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y. Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
14
13
13
13
12
12
12
Q3, 2012
Q2, 2013
11
Q3, 2013
11
11
10
Lakefronts
Q4 in 2012 saw healthy sales
activity with 18 lakefront closings
and I expect similar sales activity
through the balance of 2013.
Northstar, CA
Includes single-family homes in Northstar, CA.
Median Price
Summary:
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
$768,000
$770,000
$765,000
$760,000
Q3, 2012
$755,000
$750,000
$750,000
$750,000
Q2, 2013
Q3, 2013
$745,000
$740,000
Northstar
Sales Volume
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y. Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
9
8
8
8
7
6
Flat is the story in Northstar.
Northstar continues to be
affected by the increased
competition from the
surrounding communities of
Martis Camp, Lahontan, and
Shaffer's Mill. Those areas
have distracted buyers’
attention away from Northstar
proper and made for a sluggish
recovery. Northstar is a sound
place for winter sports
enthusiasts who like to be close
to the action. The Northstar
Resort is doing a good job of
making a four-season
destination - not just a ski area
anymore.
Sources: Tahoe Luxury
Properties; Tahoe Sierra MLS.
6
5
Q3, 2012
4
Q2, 2013
3
Q3, 2013
2
1
0
Northstar
Squaw Valley & Alpine Meadows
Includes single-family homes in Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows.
Median Price
Summary:
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
$778,000
$725,000
$600,000
Q3, 2012
Q2, 2013
Q3, 2013
A new bar for top range pricing
was set in Q3 in Squaw with the
$8.5M closing of the Bryan
residence under the tram at 854
Granite Chief Rd. The prior high
sale was Tahoe Luxury Properties'
sale of the Dorland residence at
3080 Broken Arrow Pl for $5.85M
back in 2008.
Squaw Valley & Alpine Meadows
Sales Volume
Quarter-Three Y.O.Y. Comparison
Quarter-Three & Quarter-Two, 2013 Compared
14
12
13
11
10
8
8
Q3, 2012
Q2, 2013
6
Q3, 2013
4
2
0
Squaw Valley & Alpine Meadows
Decreased supply is positively
affecting the median price in
Squaw and Alpine. After trailing
behind the market recovery in
other regions, Squaw and Alpine
are finally responding to positive
market forces. Even though the
sales volume is down, a median
price gain of 23% year-over-year is
a solid trend.
As we head toward snow season,
expect these ski area communities
to remain active with upward
pressure on prices.
Sources: Tahoe Luxury
Properties; Tahoe Sierra MLS.
Median Sales Price Timeline
Includes a look at median sales prices from 2006 through 2012,
as well as through the third quarter of 2013.
Although we’ve cleared only three quarters in 2013, this year to date has delivered stronger
median prices than some previous years’ four quarters in their entirety. Again, the information
for 2013 solely denotes data for the first, second, and third quarters.
One of the most popular questions among buyers and sellers continues to be, “how do sales
prices compare with those during the mid-2000s?” Many deem that time period as significant, in
that the market at was very robust and active. The depicted timelines offer a snapshot
comparison of how today’s median prices compare to the past six years.
Tahoe Sierra MLS Timeline
$800,000.00
$700,000.00
$600,000.00
$500,000.00
$400,000.00
Median Sales Price
$300,000.00
$200,000.00
$100,000.00
$0.00
Truckee Timeline
$700,000.00
$600,000.00
$500,000.00
$400,000.00
$300,000.00
$200,000.00
$100,000.00
$0.00
Median Sales Price
Lakefronts - Median Sales Price Timeline
$6,000,000.00
$5,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,000,000.00
Median Sales Price
$2,000,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$0.00
Incline Village & Crystal Bay Timeline
$1,400,000.00
$1,200,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$800,000.00
$600,000.00
$400,000.00
$200,000.00
$0.00
Median Sales Price
Northstar Timeline
$1,600,000.00
$1,400,000.00
$1,200,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$800,000.00
$600,000.00
Median Sales Price
$400,000.00
$200,000.00
$0.00
Squaw Valley / Alpine Meadows Timeline
$1,400,000.00
$1,200,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$800,000.00
$600,000.00
$400,000.00
$200,000.00
$0.00
Median Sales Price