Download Lecture 06: Factor Pricing

Eco525: Financial Economics I
Lecture 06: Factor Pricing
Prof. Markus K. Brunnermeier
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-1
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Overview
• Theory of Factor Pricing (APT)
¾ Merits of Factor Pricing
¾ Exact Factor Pricing and Factor Pricing Errors
¾ Factor Structure and Pricing Error Bounds
¾ Single Factor and Beta Pricing (and CAPM)
¾ (Factor) Mimicking Portfolios
¾ Unobserved Factor Models
¾ Multi-period outlook
• Empirical Factor Pricing Models
¾ Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) Factors
¾ The Fama-French Factor Model + Momentum
¾ Factor Models from the Street
• Salomon Smith Barney’s and Morgan Stanley’s Model
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-2
Eco525: Financial Economics I
The Merits of Factor Models
• Without any structure one has to estimate
¾ J expected returns E[Rj] (for each asset j)
¾ J standard deviations
¾ J(J-1)/2 co-variances
• Assume that the correlation between any two assets is
explained by systematic components/factors, one can
restrict attention to only K (non-diversifiable) factors
¾ Advantages: d Drastically reduces number of input variables
d Models expected returns (priced risk)
d Allows to estimate systematic risk
(even if it is not priced, i.e. uncorrelated with SDF)
d Analysts can specialize along factors
¾ Drawbacks: d Purely statistical model (no theory)
(does not explain why factor deserves compensation: risk vs mispricing)
d relies on past data and assumes stationarity
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-3
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Factor Pricing Setup …
• K factors f1, f2, …, fK
¾ E[fk]=0
¾ K is small relative to dimension of M
¾ fk are not necessarily in M
• F space spanned by f1,…,fK,e
• in payoffs
¾ bj,k factor loading of payoff xj
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-4
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…Factor Pricing Setup
• in returns
• Remarks:
¾One can always choose orthogonal factors Cov[fk, fk’]=0
¾Factors can be observable or unobservable
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-5
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Factor Structure
• Definition of “factor structure:”
• ⇒ risk can be split in systematic risk and
idiosyncratic (diversifiable) risk
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-6
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Exact vs. Approximate Factor Pricing
• Multiplying (1) by kq and taking expectations
• Rearranging
• Exact factor pricing:
¾ error: ψj = 0 (i.e. εj s orthogonal to kq )
¾ e.g. if kq ∈ F
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-7
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Bound on Factor Pricing Error…
• Recall error
¾ Note, if ∃ risk-free asset and all fk ∈ M, then …
• If kq ∈ F, then factor pricing is exact
• If kq ∉ F, then
¾ Let’s make use of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality
(which holds for any two random variables z1 and z2)
¾ Error-bound
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-8
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Error-Bound if Factor Structure Holds
• Factor structure ⇒ split idiosyncratic from systematic risk
• ⇒ all idiosyncratic risk εj are linearly independent and
span space orthogonal to F. Hence,
• Note
• Error
• Pythagorean Thm: If {z1, …, zn} is orthogonal system in
Hilbert space, then
¾ Follows from def. of inner product and orthogonality
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-9
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Error-Bound if Factor Structure Holds
Applying Pythagorean Thm to
implies
Multiply by
use of
……
and making
RHS is constant for constant max[σ2(εj)].
⇒ For large J, most securities must have small pricing error
• Intuition for Approximate Factor Pricing:
Idiosyncratic risk can be diversified away
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-10
Eco525: Financial Economics I
One Factor Beta Model…
• Let r be a risky frontier return and set
f = r – E[r] (i.e. f has zero mean)
¾ q(f) = q(r) – q(E[r])
_
• Risk free asset exists with gross return of r
_
¾ q(f)_= 1 – E[r]/r
• f and r span E and hence kq ∈ F
⇒ Exact Factor Pricing
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-11
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…One Factor Beta Model
• Recall
_
_
¾ E[rj] = _r - βj r q(f) _
¾ E[rj] = r - βj {E[r] - r}
• Recall
¾ βj = Cov[rj, f] / Var[f] = Cov[rj, r] / Var[r]
• If rm ∈ E then CAPM
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-12
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Mimicking Portfolios…
• Regress on factor directly or on portfolio that mimics factor
¾ Theoretical justification: project factor on M
¾ Advantage: portfolios have smaller measurement error
• Suppose portfolio contains shares α1, …, αJ with ∑jJ αj = 1.
• Sensitivity of portfolio w.r.t. to factor fk is γk = ∑j αj βjk
• Idiosyncratic risk of portfolio is ν = ∑j α εj
¾ σ2 (ν) = ∑j α2 σ(εj)
¾ diversification
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-13
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…Mimicking Portfolios
• Portfolio is only sensitive to factor k0 (and
idiosyncratic risks) if for each k ≠ k0 γk=∑ αj
βjk=0, and γk0=∑ αj βjk0≠ 0.
• The dimension of the space of portfolios
sensitive to a particular factor is J-(K-1).
• A portfolio mimics factor k0 if it is the portfolio
with smallest idiosyncratic risk among portfolios
that are sensitive only to k0.
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-14
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Observable vs. Unobservable Factors…
• Observable factors: GDP, inflation etc.
• Unobservable factors:
¾ Let data determine “abstract” factors
¾ Mimic these factors with “mimicking portfolios”
¾ Can always choose factors such that
• factors are orthogonal, Cov[fk, fk’]=0 for all k ≠ k’
• Factors satisfy “factor structure” (systemic & idiosyncratic risk)
• Normalize variance of each factor to ONE
⇒ pins down factor sensitivity (but not sign, - one can always change sign of factor)
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-15
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…Unobservable Factors…
• Empirical content of factors
¾Cov[ri,rj] = ∑k βikβjkσ2(fk)
¾ σ2(rj) =∑k βjkβjkσ2(fk)+σ2(εj)
¾ σ(fk)=1 for k=1,L,K. (normalization)
¾In matrix notation
• Cov[r,r‘] = ∑kβk’βkσ2(fk) + D,
– where βk = (β1k,…,βJk).
• Ω= B B’ + D,
– where Bjk=βjk, and D diagonal.
– For PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS assume D=0
(if D contains the same value along the diagonal it does affect
eigenvalues but not eigenvectors – which we are after)
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-16
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…Unobservable Factors…
• For any symmetric JxJ matrix A (like BB’), which is semipositive definite, i.e. y’Ay ≥ 0, there exist numbers λ1 ≥ λ2
≥…≥ lambdaJ ≥ 0 and non-zero vectors y1, …, yJ such that
¾ yj is an eigenvector of A assoc. w/ eigenvalue λj, that is A yj = λj yj
¾ ∑jJ yij yij’ = 0 for j ≠ j’
¾ ∑jJ yij yij = 1
¾ rank (A) = number of non-zero λ ‘s
¾ The yj ‘s are unique (except for sign) if the λi ‘s are distinct
• Let Y be the matrix with columns (y1,…,yJ), and
let Λ the diagonal matrix with entries λi then
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-17
Eco525: Financial Economics I
…Unobservable Factors
• If K-factor model is true, BB' is a symmetric positive
semi-definite matrix of rank $K.$
¾ Exactly K non-zero eigenvalues λ1,…,λk and associated
eigenvectors y1,…,yK
¾ YK the matrix with columns given by y1,…,yK ΛK the diagonal
matrix with entries λj, j=1,…, K.
¾ BB'= K
Hence,
• Factors are not identified but sensitivities are (except for sign.)
• In practice choose K so that λk is small for k>K.
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-18
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Why more than ONE mimicking
portfolio?
• Mimic (un)observable factors with portfolios
[Projection of factor on asset span]
• Isn’t a single portfolio which mimics pricing kernel
sufficient ⇒ ONE factor
• So why multiple factors?
¾ Not all assets are included (real estate, human capital …)
¾ Other factors capture dynamic effects
[since e.g. conditional ≠ unconditional. CAPM]
(more later to this topic)
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-19
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Overview
• Theory of Factor Pricing (APT)
¾ Merits of Factor Pricing
¾ Exact Factor Pricing and Factor Pricing Errors
¾ Factor Structure and Pricing Error Bounds
¾ Single Factor and Beta Pricing (and CAPM)
¾ (Factor) Mimicking Portfolios
¾ Unobserved Factor Models
¾ Multi-period outlook
• Empirical Factor Pricing Models
¾ Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) Factors
¾ The Fama-French Factor Model + Momentum
¾ Factor Models from the Street
• Salomon Smith Barney’s and Morgan Stanley’s Model
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-20
Eco525: Financial Economics I
APT Factors of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986)
1. Industrial production
(reflects changes in cash flow expectations)
2. Yield spread btw high risk and low risk corporate bonds
(reflects changes in risk preferences)
3. Difference between short- and long-term interest rate
(reflects shifts in time preferences)
4. Unanticipated inflation
5. Expected inflation (less important)
Note: The factors replicate market portfolio.
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-21
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Fama-MacBeth 2 Stage Method
• Stage 1: Use time series data to obtain estimates for
each individual stock’s βj
(e.g. use monthly data for last 5 years)
Note: is just an estimate [around true βj ]
• Stage 2: Use cross sectional data and estimated βjs to
estimate SML
b=market risk premium
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-22
Eco525: Financial Economics I
CAPM β−Τesting Fama French (1992)
• Using newer data slope of SML b is not significant (adding size and B/M)
• Dealing with econometrics problem:
¾
s are only noisy estimates, hence estimate of b is biased
¾ Solution:
– Group stocks in 10 x 10 groups
sorted to size and estimated βj
– Conduct Stage 1 of Fama-MacBeth for portfolios
– Assign all stocks in same portfolio same β
– Problem: Does not resolve insignificance
size
• Standard Answer: Find instrumental variable
• Answer in Finance: Derive estimates for portfolios
Portfolio
• CAPM predictions: b is significant, all other variables insignificant
• Regressions: size and B/M are significant, b becomes insignificant
¾ Rejects CAPM
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-23
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Book to Market and Size
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-24
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Fama French Three Factor Model
• Form 2x3 portfolios
book/market
¾Size factor (SMB)
¾Book/Market factor (HML)
size
• Return of small minus big
• Return of high minus low
• For …
αs are big and βs do not vary much
• For …
(for each portfolio p using time series data)
αs are zero, coefficients significant, high R2.
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-25
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Fama French Three Factor Model
• Form 2x3 portfolios
book/market
¾Size factor (SMB)
¾Book/Market factor (HML)
size
• Return of small minus big
• Return of high minus low
• For …
αs are big and βs do not vary much
• For …
(for each portfolio p using time series data)
αps are zero, coefficients significant, high R2.
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-26
Book to Market as a Predictor of Return
Annualized Rate of Return
25%
20%
15%
10%
Value
5%
Growth
0%
1
2
High Book/Market
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Low Book/Market
Book to Market Equity of Portfolios Ranked by Beta
Book to Market Equity
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Beta
1.4
1.6
1.8
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Adding Momentum Factor
• 5x5x5 portfolios
• Jegadeesh & Titman 1993 JF rank stocks
according to performance to past 6 months
¾Momentum Factor
Top Winner minus Bottom Losers Portfolios
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-29
Monthly Difference Between Winner and
Loser Portfolios
Monthly Difference Between Winner and
Loser Portfolios at Announcement Dates
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
Months Following 6 Month Performance Period
29
31
33
35
Cumulative Difference Between
Winner and Loser Portfolios
Cumulative Difference Between Winner and
Loser Portfolios at Announcement Dates
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1% 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Months Following 6 Month Performance Period
29
31
33
35
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Morgan Stanley’s Macro Proxy Model
• Factors
¾ GDP growth
¾ Long-term interest rates
¾ Foreign exchange (Yen, Euro, Pound basket)
¾ Market Factor
¾ Commodities or oil price index
• Factor-mimicking portfolios (“Macro Proxy”)
¾ Stage 1: Regress individual stocks on macro factors
¾ Stage 2: Create long-short portfolios of most and least
sensitive stocks [5 quintiles]
• Macro Proxy return predicts macro factor
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-32
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Salomon Smith Barney Factor Model
• Factors
¾Market trend (drift)
¾Economic growth
¾Credit quality
¾Interest rates
¾Inflation shocks
¾Small cap premium
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-33
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Haugen’s view: The Evolution of Academic Finance
The Old Finance
1930’s
40’s
50’s
60’s
70’s
80’s
90’s
beyond
Modern Finance
Modern Finance
Theme:
Paradigms:
Valuation Based on Rational Economic Behavior
Optimization
Irrelevance
CAPM
(Markowitz)
(Modigliani & Miller)
EMH
(Sharpe, Lintner & Mossen) (Fama)
Foundation: Financial Economics
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-34
Eco525: Financial Economics I
Haugen’s view: The Evolution of Academic Finance
The Old Finance
1930’s
40’s
50’s
The New Finance
60’s
70’s
80’s
90’s
beyond
Modern Finance
The New Finance
Theme:
Paradigms:
Inefficient Markets
Inductive ad hoc Factor Models
Expected Return
Risk
Behavioral Models
Foundation: Statistics, Econometrics, and Psychology
09:55 Lecture 06
Factor Pricing
Slide 06-35