Download Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program Adaptive

Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program Adaptive Management Opportunities:
What regional simulations suggest about the risks and rewards of the
first ten proposed restoration projects
Jim Vearil1, Elmar Kurzbach1, Agnes Mclean2, Steve Traxler3, Andy Gottlieb4, Rebecca Elliott5, Tom St. Clair6, Jed Redwine6, and Andy Loschaivo1
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US Army Corps of Engineers, 701 San Marco BLVD., Jacksonville, FL 32207
2
Everglades National Park, 850 Krome Ave. Miami, FL, USA
3
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service South Florida Field Office, 1339 20th St., Vero Beach, FL 32960
4
South Florida Water Management District, Everglades Restoration Planning Offices
3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33406
5
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, 3301 Gun Club Rd, West Palm Beach, FL 33416
6
EPJV, 701 San Marco BLVD. Suite 1201, Jacksonville, FL 32207
1
Background
The Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) Planning Team was able to use simulation models to
systematically optimize operations of the regional watershed in order to maximize the environmental benefits delivered
by the first ten proposed projects. These simulations revealed significant environmental benefits associated with these
projects, which exceeded the estimated benefits that any project yields when simulated individually. The simulations
provide estimates of the location and magnitude of challenges facing the system, and are also effective for checking in
on the current status of the existing system. This was useful for predicting the likelihood that Band One projects, using a
post Herbert Hoover Dike repair operating scenario, will be able to supply regional water to support increased demands
in the Lower East Coast (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County). All large scale ecosystem restoration programs are
likely to face challenges analogous to those faced by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP).
Clearly restoration is necessary because at least one critical requirement for ecosystem function has been systematically
affected by humans. Simulation models are effective, low risk, ways to determine wha type of regional performance is
possible given a variety of alternative configurations of the regional system. By rigorously exploring what is possible,
planners are able to develop cause-effect relationships between projects, operations and performance. Further exploration
of these cause-effect relationships can then be conducted in the context of a hypothesis testing framework, and these
zinvestigations can lead to the development of a set of options which managers may wish to implement in order to reduce
or eliminate the perceived risks to the system.
All of these steps together represent the effective use of the Adaptive Management framework for system-wide planning.
Figure 1.
Proposed location and scale of the
Decompartmetalization Physical Model Active AM study and the areas being considered for Levee modification and
canal backfilling.
Five Areas of concern indicated by
the Band 1 simulations
Hypothesized Causes for these concerns
Possible solutions for addressing
these concerns
• If only Band One projects are built, Lower East Coast water supply demand increases are likely to result in water restrictions
every five years.
Demands have increased in a manner similar to the predictions made by CERP, but the implementation of projects has not
proceeded along the expected timeline. CERP projects are not likely to reduce the frequency of water restrictions by 2020
as predicted.
Non-regional alternative water supply sources and projects including water conservation programs, water re-use facilities, and
desalinization plants.
Figure 2.
Cumulative drought intensity comparison of Band 1 modeling scenarios. Improvements to the drought intensity condition
of each SFWMM cell of the 2015CP scenario compared to 2015BS scenario are indicated by a blue dot. Locations
where drought intensity has increased are indicated by a black dot. The size of the dot is proportional to the magnitude
of the change.
2015 BS vs. 2015 CP
Cumulative Drought Intensity
Relative to Target Dry
Conditions Simulated Period
of Record
• B
alancing the health of Lake Okeechobee with estuarine health and the Lake’s ability to increase hydroperiods throughout the
Everglades wetlands.
Okeechobee operational schedule adapted from an existing Water Supply / Environmental (WSE) approach interacting with
increase in Natural System Deliveries from STA 3/4 to WCA3A, and optimized operations strategy.
Increasing storage volume in/around Lake Okeechobee by building storage reservoirs, or adding Aquifer storage and recovery
wells. These solutions are intimately influenced by efforts to maintain appropriate water quality.
• T
he intensity of extreme droughts may increase across the system.
Likely caused by the operations optimization process.
A less aggressive operational schedule could be used with the Band 1 projects, or the construction of additional storage reservoirs
planned for subsequent phases of CERP could be implemented early.
• A
90 mile2 wetland landscape contained in Water Conservation Area 3B appears likely to experience a very different hydropattern
than exists currently, or than existed historically. A strategy to manage the transition of this landscape is advisable.
Caused by the transfer of water across the L-67 canals combined with existing elevation patterns which have resulted from a lack
of inundation duration over the last four decades.
Both active and passive AM strategies are being used to address this concern. The Decompartmentalization (Decomp) Physical
Model (DPM) is planned to create a controllable, 3 km wide flow field across the L-67 levy in order to test the mechanisms
hypothesized to control the development of the ridge and slough pattern that was characteristic of the historical, long hydroperiod
regions of WCA 3A. This experiment will be used to parameterize at least three local scale hydro-ecological models which will
describe nutrient flux and soil development processes in a manner that allows scaling up the results of the DPM to the broader
array of nutrient and hydrologic conditions that are found throughout WCA 3B, northern WCA 3A, and WCA 2.
Passive AM strategies for management of WCA 3B are associated with RECOVER Monitoring and Assessment Program (MAP)
http://www.evergladesplan.org/pm/recover/recover_map_2008.aspx
• O
perations along the northern (upstream) boundary of Water Conservation Area 3A (the current interface with the Everglades
Agricultural Area) need to be optimized so that this area does not experience increased frequency and intensity of drought
conditions. This issue is integrally related to the operations and compliance methods used to address existing water quality issues.
Likely caused by the upstream boundary effect that exists in all of the Water Conservation Areas (impoundments) interacting with
the operations optimization process.
The northern WCA 3A boundary is among the most difficult areas in CERP. Reducing cumulative drought intensity in this region is
clearly necessary in order to halt the loss of peat soil which is altering the historic elevation profile of the River of Grass. This region
borders on the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA), and reintroduction of historic water flows can only occur when there is sufficient
treatment capacity to deliver water with the appropriate nutrient concentrations. Adaptive implementation of Stormwater Treatment
Areas in the EAA is occurring, and the State of Florida is engaged in planning for a River of Grass initiative which is intended to
reconnect the Lake Okeechobee basin with the Everglades Protection Area. Passive AM strategies are being conducted by the
RECOVER Monitoring and Assessment Program (MAP), but clearly defined active AM approaches for improving the function of the
WCA 3A/EAA boundary have not yet been developed.
Technical Conclusions
• B
and one projects are not sufficient to deliver water supply benefits to the Lower East Coast (LEC) and the uncertainty associated
with future phases of CERP implementation requires that water supply strategies be updated accordingly during the LEC’s Regional
Water Supply Plan process.
• B
and 1 projects improve the ecological condition of the regional ecosystem, but are not sufficient for optimizing the ecological health
of Lake Okeechobee.
• W
ith the Band 1 projects, severe droughts remain problematic, and therefore enhancing water storage and treatment is a clear
priority for next steps in CERP.
• A
ctive and passive AM strategies focused on optimizing vegetation patterns in WCA 3B are underway, and are likely to yield clear
guidance for how to optimize the existing engineered boundaries in the Water Conservation Areas.
Figure 2 compares potential ecological lift associated with the Band 1 projects. This figure depicts only the portion of
simulations where water is below ground surface. The graphic contains no information about the patterns of inundation of
these areas. In addition, SFWMM cells that are on top of or within one cell of a structure or canal need to be viewed with
caution since abstractions exist within the model that define the behavior of that cell and often influences adjacent cells.
These abstractions are necessary for the model to be accurate across regions, but preclude accurate characterization of
a cell’s ecological condition where abstractions are located. The behavior of cells immediately upstream and downstream
of the Tamiami Trail should be viewed cautiously due to the presence of a large number of model abstractions along this
feature of the landscape. Blank cells are areas where the system is already wetter than the NSM condition. Cells with
dots are cells that are drier than the NSM condition and are either becoming drier (black) or wetter (blue).
Presenting author: Jed Redwine, PBS&J/EPJV, 701 San Marco Blvd. Suite 1201, Jacksonville, FL 32207.
Office phone: 904 232-1181, cell: 904 253-0213, fax: 904 232-1056, e-mail: [email protected]
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