Download ESRG Presentation - Press Briefing February 2017

Economic Statistics Review
Group Report
February 3, 2017
Briefing on Report and CSO Response
www.cso.ie
ESRG – Report
• Report welcomed
• 13 recommendations across 5 main themes
–
–
–
–
–
Level Indicators
Structural Indicators
Cyclical Indicators
Communications
Co-operation
• Focus on insight into domestic economic activity
www.cso.ie
2
Implementation
• Multi-year programme to deliver recommendations
– Short-term (during 2017) and longer-term deliverables
• CSO will take incremental approach – initial
development, focusing on annual analyses and then
review
• Focus in 2017 will be on:
– Modified Gross National Income indicator GNI*
– Large Case vs Other firms view in Sector Accounts
– Additional detail on intellectual property products (IPP),
aircraft leasing & contract manufacturing
www.cso.ie
3
Level Indicator
• Gross National Income* (GNI*)
– GNI adjusted for retained earnings of re-domiciled firms and
depreciation on foreign-owned domestic capital assets
• Modified measure of the size or level of economy
• Additional and useful input to economic modelling and
analysis, including use “under the line” for ratio analysis
• Top-down approach to developing GNI*
‒ Annual series initially in mid-2017, with focus on re-domiciled
firms and depreciation related to intellectual property
products
‒ Longer-term: quarterly series at current and constant prices
www.cso.ie
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Level Indicator - Illustration
GNI * Proxy: GNI less Depreciation for Large Case firms
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3
GDP
NFF
LCU
GNI*
GDP
Structural Indicators
• Insight into foreign-owned MNE vs Domestic ownership
view of the economy
• Initially, CSO to include breakdown of the non-financial
sector into Large Case and Other firms in October 2017
annual sector accounts
– Large Case firms dominate the non-financial MNEs
• Longer-term:
– Expand the breakdown for foreign-owned MNEs beyond the
Large Cases firms
– Expand the breakdown into other presentations of the
national accounts data
www.cso.ie
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Example:
Extended Sector Accounts
S11
S11
NonFinancial
Foreignowned
MNEs
incl. Large
Case firms
S11
Domestic
incl. Irish
MNEs
S12
Financial
Corporations
Corporations
www.cso.ie
S13
Government
S1M
S2
Households
Rest of
World
and NPISH
MNE & LCU Dominance
2015 Data
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Turnover
Goods
Exports
Goods
Imports
www.cso.ie
Services
Exports
Services
Imports
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Structural Indicators
MNE vs Domestic
• Foreign-owned vs domestic view of economic structure
• Initially use Large Case vs Other firms split
• Ultimately build up from the micro (company) data for
all foreign-owned firms
Estimated split of foreign/domestic value added (2014) based on sources of foreign marker
Total Gross Value Added
(€bn)
Foreign-owned firms
(€bn)
Domestic firms
(€bn)
% Foreignowned
177
42 (Large Case firms)
135
24.0%
119
32.9%
177
58 (Large Case + all other firms
with foreign marker)
www.cso.ie
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Cyclical Indicators
• Expanded component analysis of Expenditure side of
National Accounts
– Additional detail on globalisation-related activities
• To support development of additional measures of
underlying investment, additional detail in mid-2017 on
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–
–
–
Intellectual property product relocations
Aircraft leasing
Re-domiciled firms
Contract manufacturing in Exports and Imports data
• With the Structural Indicators, will give good information of
effect of globalisation on Irish economy
• Longer-term work: annual and quarterly Net National Product
(NNP) at current and constant prices
www.cso.ie
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Net National Product
GNP and NNP
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
NNP Total Economy
www.cso.ie
GNP Total Economy
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Key Messages
• CSO welcomes report and thanks the Chair and members
• Focus of the Group - analyses or indicators that would provide a
better understanding of the domestic components of highly
globalised Irish economy
• GDP and GNP continue to be the international standard indicators
• GNI* proposed to address the specific nature of the Irish economy
• Additional structural and cyclical measures recommended to give
users more broad-based information on the Irish economy
• Implementation will be incremental with some of the new measures
available in mid-2017 at time of annual National Income and
Expenditure results
• Progress will be kept under review and feedback will be sought from
users on developments
www.cso.ie
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