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Briefing on the United States Presidential Elections November, 2016 Republican nominee for President of the United States, Donald Trump, wins the race for the White House. After a dramatic campaign, Election Day was characterized in much the same way. President-Elect, Donald Trump, took to the stage in his home state of New York to thank his supporters, his family and his team after receiving a phone call from Secretary Clinton who conceded the race. With surprising victories for the Republican Presidential candidate in traditionally Democratic strongholds such as Wisconsin, the path to the all-important 270 Electoral College votes was open only to Donald Trump. The President-Elect will be sworn in on January 20th 2017, but let’s reflect on the events of Election Day. While many pundits thought this election would be wrapped up before midnight, at 2:00 am Eastern Time the election still hadn’t been called. However, it was increasingly clear that the Republican nominee for President of the United States of America, Donald Trump was on the path to victory. Controversially, Secretary Clinton’s camp chose not to make a concessionary speech on the night, and instead spoke the following morning. Soon after, the results were called in some crucial states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, pushing President-Elect Donald Trump over the 270 Electoral College votes threshold required to win the election. At the time of writing it looks as though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but the design of the U.S. electoral system means that it is the Electoral College, which more often than not reflects the popular vote, that determines the winner of the race for the White House. Many states have strong traditions of voting for one party in every election, meaning that in reality it is around 12 states that really decide the balance of power on Election Day. In this election, some states that don’t usually feature in this ‘swing state’ category produced some surprise results, clearing the way for Donald Trump’s victory. Let’s take a look at some of those swing states. States that were expected to go to the Republican BRIEFING ON THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: November 2016 nominee included Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Utah, all of which went Trump’s way on the night. Clinton was expected to take Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, and did so on the night. But, Clinton was also expected to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too, which ultimately went to Trump. And, in those races which were too close to call ahead of Election Day, such as Florida and North Carolina, Trump pulled it out of the bag for the Republicans. While, at the time of writing, the vote is still being counted in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, Donald Trump won enough of the battlegrounds to put him over the top, and the President-Elect gave a speech to supporters in New York shortly after Hillary Clinton called him to congratulate him on his victory and concede the race. could have a crucial impact on key policy issues including the future of ‘Obamacare’. This Republican sweep, also reflected in the gubernatorial elections, will have a strong influence on the way Trump conducts the first two years of his Presidency at least, before the midterm elections take place. So what does this mean for the business community? The race for the White House has been of great interest to British business, whose operating environment can be directly impacted by the policy priorities of the administration. The administration’s priorities for trade, tax, financial services regulation, education, and energy, to name a few, will be closely considered by the business community. This election cycle has been shocking from the beginning to the very end. And in the end it seems as if the vote was much less about party affiliation and much more about class and anti-establishment sentiment. Although the full demographics of how the electorate voted are yet to be released, it is clear that many voters who almost certainly voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012, voted for Donald Trump in 2016. The UK is the largest foreign investor in America, and British companies support over 1 million jobs in the U.S., across all 50 States, about a quarter of which are in the manufacturing sector. As of 2014, UK companies and affiliates have invested over $449 billion in the United States, representing 15% of all foreign direct investment (FDI). The UK has also invested heavily in R&D in the United States, spending $7bn in 2013, and supporting 25,200 skilled jobs nationwide. The result of this election will be baffling for both pollsters and political pundits. Pundits will have to examine how they were gauging the election in the weeks leading up to the vote. Democrats felt very strong coming off of early voting results and what seemed to be record turnout from minorities and women. However, at the end of the day the Republicans still hold the House and the Senate, so clearly the math was off. As the UK and the USA’s economic ‘special relationship’ continues to go from strength to strength, we hope that the President-Elect is committed to building on, and developing this unique political and trading partnership. Importantly, following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, we need to do everything we can to make it easier to trade, invest and drive prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic. With a Republican Executive, Legislature and an empty seat on the Supreme Court that will decide the balance of Conservatives and Liberals at the highest level of the Judiciary, speculation about what to expect during the ‘lame duck’ intensifies. It is highly likely the Senate will wait for Trump’s nomination to the Supreme Court, which the candidate promised would be in the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s image. Moreover, the passage of the Trans Pacific Partnership looks increasingly unlikely, and there will be a further heated debate about an Omnibus Bill or another Continuing Resolution to fund the Federal Government, which To achieve this, the top priority for the British business community will be the trade agenda – where a more positive approach than we’ve heard on the campaign trail is vitally important. Although, this seems very challenging, it’s time to move forward with the trade agenda for the benefit of businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. Business across the world will be looking for progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and the European Union as the next administration gets underway. 2 BRIEFING ON THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: November 2016 Business will also want to see action on muchneeded tax reform. Bipartisan efforts to address the complex tax system will be required, including the 35% corporate tax rate, one of the highest in the world. Finally, business hopes for an open and forthcoming dialogue with the new administration on a range of vitally important policy issues, to ensure prosperity for the business community and citizens in the United States and abroad. For further information or a copy in large text format, please contact: John Dickerman, Head of Group, CBI Washington E: [email protected] [email protected] © Copyright CBI 2016 The content may not be copied, distributed, reported or dealt with in whole or in part without prior consent of the CBI. Annie Crawford, Senior policy adviser E: [email protected] www.cbi.org.uk @cbitweets linkedin.com/company/cbi 3