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Bull Market Runs through Autumn Four Long Economic Waves in the US June 1789 through March 2010 1000 S&P 1 300 2 3 1000 S&P 4 300 Spring 1789-1803 1845-1859 1896-1907 1949-1966 Summer 1803-1821 1859-1865 1908-1920 1966-1981 Autumn 1821-1836 1866-1873 1921-1929 1982-2000 Winter 1837-1845 1873-1896 1929-19492000-2020? 100 US Stock Prices 1921-1929 Prepared for LongWaveGroup.com • (778) 294-4288 by • (303) 440-0157 • chartguy.com Copyright © 2010 • All rights reserved 100 1982-2000 20 HM 10 Bull Market Runs through Autumn 30 10 (S&P 500) 1864-1873 1816-1835 5 100 Bull Market Runs through Autumn Bull Market Runs through Autumn Homestake Mining 3 2 PPI (currently ABX) 1 1 30 US Prices PPI PPI PPI before 1949, PPI 350% ½ 300% 250% US Total Debt CRB after (percent of GDP) 200% 10 150% Aaa 10% Aaa Corp. Bond Yield 1850 m er mm er m m Su Su 1900 Winter Ends Spring Begins ing Spr 1949 1950 Winter 1982 Begins Primary Recession after Summer Peak r 1845 r Sp Primary Recession 1907 after Summer Peak Summer begins (1908) with sharply rising prices and interest rates, which peak at summer’s end (corresponding to World War I). Autumn 2000 nte Sp Winter 1921 Begins ing 1981 1929 Wi 1800 r ing Autumn 1919 ter 1789 1803 Summer begins (1803) with sharply rising prices and interest rates, which peak at summer’s end (corresponding to War of 1812). Winter Begins Primary Recession Winter Ends after Spring Summer Begins Peak Summer begins (1859) with sharply rising prices and interest 1896 rates, which peak at summer’s end (corresponding to Civil War). 1859 T-Bond 1873 T-Bond Win Sp Winter Ends Spring Begins 1866 ter g rin Winter Begins Primary Recession after Summer Peak 1821 1865 Win Revolutionary War Autumn 1837 Autumn Winter er 1819 Sum mer 3% Interest Rate Spike T-Bond m US Treasury Bond Yield 5% 4% Aaa Su 7% 1966 Summer begins (1966) with sharply rising prices and interest rates, which peak at summer’s end (corresponding to Viet Nam War). 30 2000 2020? 10
