Download India Meteorological Department

India Meteorological Department
FDP STORM Bulletin No. 02 (07-03-2017)
S. No.
CURRENT
1.
SYNOPTIC
SITUATION at 03
UTC of 07-03-2017
STORM area of interest (All India)
SYNOPTIC FEATURES:
The Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over north Pakistan & neighbourhood and
extends upto 3.6 km above mean sea level. An induced upper air cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan
and adjoining west Rajasthan and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.
A fresh Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Iran & neighbourhood and
extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. The trough from Sub-Himalayan West Bengal to South interior
Odisha across Gangetic West Bengal now runs from west Assam to north Coastal Andhra Pradesh across
Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood extending upto 1.5 Km above mean
sea level persists. The trough from Lakshadweep area to North Interior Karnataka has become less marked.
An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Interior Karnataka & neighbourhood and extends upto 1.5 Km
above mean sea level.
An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Kutch & neighbourhood between 1.5 Km and 3.1 Km above mean sea
level.
The trough of low at mean sea level over Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has
become less marked.
The trough at mean sea level from Lakshadweep area to North Interior Karnataka across interior Tamilnadu &
Telangana has become less marked.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS during past 24 hrs and current observation (Based on 0600 UTC Imagery of
INSAT -3D):
Scattered multi-layered clouds over J & K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, adjoining Haryana and northeast Rajasthan in
association with western disturbance over the area.
Scattered low/medium clouds over rest Haryana, north Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, rest Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,
east Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sikkim, Meghalaya, northeast Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, north-eastern states,
Kerala, Tamilnadu and Nicobar Islands.
Arabian Sea:Isolated low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over southeast Arabian Sea.
Bay Of Bengal & Andaman Sea:- Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection
over southeast Bay of Bengal, and south Andaman Sea.
Trough at middle level based on WV imagery and upper level winds: Trough in westerly lies at 65 E.
Core of Jet stream: Around 25 N Latitude and 75 - 80 E Longitude
Relative Vorticity at 850 hPa (Distribution): 50-100 vorticity in the parts of Rajasthan and Goa.
Divergence at 200 hPa: Negative divergence upto -10 was observed over costal Maharashtra and Goa and upto -5 in NE
J & K. Positive divergence upto 10 was observed over Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and SE J & K.
Convergence at 850 hPa: negative upto -20 was observed over the Himalayan region, up to -10 over
Marathawada Region and positive upto 10 was observed over Central India, North Kerala and Rajasthan.
Vertical wind shear (200-850 hPa): Upto 100 kt was observed in extreme NW and NE parts of the country.
TPWV Distribution: Maximum (>35mm and up to 65mm) over AP, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Kerala and South
Karnataka.
Rainfall: IMR: Up to 50 mm rainfall was recorded over Kerala adjacent Tamilnadu and up to 30 mm was recorded
over J & K, Himachal Pradesh and North Punjab
HEM: Up to 130 mm rainfall was recorded over central Kerala and adjacent Tamilnadu. Up to 7 mm rainfall was recorded
over parts of Punjab and J & K.
RADAR observation during past 24 hrs and current observation based on 0300 UTC
Convection appears to be in progress over Orissa around 28 dBz
2.
NWP
GUIDANCE
Environmental condition (dust etc) and its forecast based on 00 UTC of date
Higher dust concentration is observed over Arabian Peninsula. Dust concentration is likely to increase from
March 8 onwards over Rajasthan, Gujarat and adjoining areas. (WMO SDS-WAS Asian Centre)
MODEL NCMRWF (NCUM)
1. Weather Systems: Weak CYCIR (850hPa) over NW India over Rajasthan and Pakistan from Day-1-Day-4, Feeble trough
forecasts Day-0 to Day-2 at MSLP over J&K, Wind discontinuity at 925 and 850 hPa extends from parts of AP, Maharashtra,
MP, Chhattisgarh and parts of Bihar Day-0 to Day-2, WD W of J&K in Day-3 - Day-5, Anti-cyclonic flow over Arabian Sea
and Bay of Bengal.
2. Location of jet and jet core at 500 hPa:- 500hPa Jet core (>60kt) Over Assam in Day-3 to Day-5, Over Rajasthan,
Gujarat and MP in Day2 and 3, extending to large parts of central India in Day4 and 5.
3. Convergence at 850 hPa: Weak noisy low level convergence at several places over India.
4. Low level Vorticity:- Positive Vorticity (>15 x 10-5/s) over different regions at around 00UTC (not prominent at 12UTC)
5. Showalter Index: Showalter Index: -3 to -4[Very Unstable] K-Index: >35 [Very Unstable thunderstorm likely]:
in Day-0 over AP, Odisha, MP and Chhattisgarh, in Day-1 over Tripura, Manipur and Mizoram, in Day-2 over TN, parts of
Kerala, in Day-3 over TN, parts of Kerala, UP, Bihar, Odisha, WB, Bangladesh, Manipur, Tripura, Mizoram, in Day-4 over
WB, Bangladesh, Manipur, Tripura, Mizoram.
6. TTI:- TTI>50 in over NW India on all days, Day0 AP and Odisha Day-3 to Day-5 HP, Uttarakhand, Eastern and NE India.
7. Rainfall and thunderstorm activity:- Day-1: TN, Kerala and Karnataka (2cm/day), Day-2-3 & 5: HP Uttarakhand (24cm), Arunachal, Tripura-Mizoram (>2cm/day), Day-4-: Rainfall > 16cm/day Meghalaya-Bangladesh region.
IMD GFS(T1534)
1.Weather systems:At 10m: A feeble CYCIR over Karnataka and adjoining regions and a trough extends from this system to northern parts of
Kerala in Day-1 and Day-2.
At 850hPa:- A feeble CYCIR over Karnataka and adjoining regions in analysis and a trough extends from this system to
northern parts of Kerala. A feeble CYCIR over Panjab and adjoining areas and a trough extends from this system to Odisha
through MP on Day-1 and the trough shifts northward during next 4 days and it extends from the CYCIR over Panjab to
Bihar through UP on Day-5. Another quasi-stationary trough line at 850 hPa extends from MP to south peninsula from Day-1
to Day-4.
An anticyclone persists over Bay of Bengal at 850 hPa from Day-1 to Day-5.
At 500 hPa: Contour at 500 hPa shows approaching of a WD over the northern parts of the India from Day-2 to Day-5.2
2. Location of jet and jet core at 500 hPa:500hPa Jet core (>60kt): A Jet at 500 hPa would establish over India
along around 25 deg. N latitude during next 5 days.
3. Spatial distribution of Low level Vorticity850hPa Positive Vorticity (>12 x 10-1/s): Along foothills of Himalaya
and over Karnataka in the analysis field. Over NW India and along the longitude about 78 deg E from west MP to Karnataka
through Maharashtra on Day-1 and along the east-west and north-south trough from Day-2 to Day-4.
4. Spatial distribution of T-storm Initiation Index, Lifted Index, Total Total Index, CAPE, SIN and Sweat Index(High
potential for thunderstorm):T-Storm Initiation Index( > 4): Less than the threshold value all over the country during next 5 days.
Lifted Index (< -2): Less than threshold value along east coast from south peninsula to Gangetic West Bengal during next 5
days.
Total Total Index ( > 50) : Above threshold value over Karnataka and adjoining areas at 12 UTC of day-1 but less than the
threshold value over the India till day-5.
Sweat Index ( > 300): Mostly along east coast and Panjab during next 5 days and along Gangetic plain from Day-3 to day5.
CAPE (> 1000): Mostly along east coast during next 5 days
SIN (50-150): Over Telengana, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Gujarat during next 3 days.
5. Rainfall activity :- 10-40 mm over extreme south peninsula, J&K, HP from Day-1 to Day-5.
20-130 mm UP, Bihar, northern parts of West Bengal and NE states from Day-4 to Day-5.
IMD WRF:
1. Weather Systems: A CYCIR over coastal Maharashtra and adjoin Konkan & Goa extending up to 850 hPa. A north-south
trough over Bihar and adjoining areas extending up to 850 hPa., Wind discontinuity along east coast of India up to 850 hPa
from Gangetic West Bengal to Rayalaseema on all days, A feeble effect of WD is seen over J&K and Himachal Pradesh.
2. Location of jet and jet core at 500 hPa:- 500hPa Jet core (>60kt) is seen over extreme east of north-east India.
3. Spatial distribution of Low level Vorticity- Positive Vorticity (>15 x 10-5/s) in the region on low level convergence and
wind discontinuity extends from parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, MP, Chhattisgarh and parts of Jharkhand.
4. Convergence at 850 hPa: Weak low level convergence zone extends from parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha,
Interior Karnataka and adjoining Telengana and Rayalaseema which shifted eastward and orients north-south from east MP
to interior Karnataka over Chhattisgarh, Telengana and parts of Rayalaseema from day 1 onwards
5. Radar reflectivity: Prominent radar reflectivity (> 30 dBz) is seen over Northwest India covering parts of J&K, Himachal
Pradesh; adjoin Punjab, Haryana and Uttarakhand during next 48 hours; in day 2 over Chhattisgarh and adjoining Orissa,
Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand in day 2.
5. Rainfall activity :- Scattered rainfall activity along east coast following wind discontinuity from coastal Orissa to Interior
Karnataka and adjoining Tamilnadu in day 1. Similar to radar reflectivity, the scattered rainfall activity occurs during
afternoon to evening hours of day 2 over Chhattisgarh, Orissa, adjoining Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.
ECMWF (based on 0000 UTC of the day)
Mean sea level : No significant systems present over Indian region till 00UTC of 13th February 2017.
Lower Level Winds (925 hpa) : An induced upper air cyclonic circulation seen over north west Rajasthan on 8th February,
and it moved eastwards and seen over west Madhya Pradesh on 11th February and become less marked thereafter.
A trough is seen in the lower levels from Lakshadweep area to south Madhya Pradesh on 8 th February and seen from north
interior Karnataka to north Kerala on 9th and it moved eastwards and seen as a trough from Bihar to south Coastal Andhra
Pradesh on 11th and from Bangladesh to south Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 12th February.
Western Disturbance (700 hpa & 500 hpa): A western disturbance as an upper cyclonic circulation seen over Afghanistan
and adjoining Iran on 8th February with a tilted trough aloft runs roughly along longitude 63 degree East and north of latitude
26 degree north, and it moved eastwards and seen as cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan on
9th with a trough aloft along longitude 70 degree East and north of latitude 27 degree north and over Pakistan and
neighbourhood on 10th with a trough aloft along longitude 72 degree East and north of latitude 24 degree north and over
Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir on 11th with a trough aloft along longitude 74 degree East and north of latitude
20 degree north.
3.
IOP ADVISORY
FOR 24 Hrs
Summary and Conclusions:
Synopsis based on synoptic conditions, NWP models and satellite imageries are as follow:
Day 1 and Day 2:
Presently a western disturbance lies over north Pakistan & neighbourhood and associated induced upper air cyclonic
circulation lies over central Pakistan and adjoining west Rajasthan and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level. Another
western disturbance lies over south Iran & neighbourhood and extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. A trough in lower
levels runs from west Assam & neighbourhood to north coastal Andhra Pradesh. The western disturbances system likely to
over northwest India in quick succession. The trough from west Assam to north coastal Andhra Pradesh likely to become
more marked, which enhance moisture incursion over east & adjoin central and northwest India. This easterly flow also
reaches to northern plains and interact with mid-level westerlies, causing fairly widespread thunderstorm activity mainly over
northwest, east and northeast India during 8th to 11th March 2017.
Advisory for IOP:
Possible areas of Rain/Thunderstorm activity (Priority wise) are given below:
Day 1: North Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Coastal Orissa, North Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, South Tamilnadu
Day 2: Punjab, Haryana, Coastal Orissa, North Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, South Tamilnadu
For NCMRWF NWP products: (http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/HomePage/NEPS-prod-1.php)
For IMD NWP products: (http://nwp.imd.gov.in/diagpro_new.php)
For Synoptic plotted data and charts
http://amssdelhi.gov.in/
http://www.amsskolkata.gov.in/
For RAPID tool:
http://rapid.imd.gov.in/
Low Level Winds
http://satellite.imd.gov.in/archive/INSAT-3D-IMAGER/3D-PRODUCTS/AMV/LLW/MAR_2017/?C=M;O=D
Upper level winds
http://satellite.imd.gov.in/archive/INSAT-3D-IMAGER/3D-PRODUCTS/AMV/HLW/MAR_2017/?C=M;O=D
Past 24 hour HEM and IMR rainfall (upto 03 UTC of today)
IMR :http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/3Ddaily_imr.jpg
HEM: http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/3Ddaily_he.jpg
For Radar images of the past 24 hours including mosaic of images:
http://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/dwr_img/
IOP Advisory for 24 hours
IOP Advisory for 48 hours
Dust Concentration
RGB Image of INSAT 3D at 0600UTC highlighting regions of
convection
DWR Composite at 08 UTC highlighting regions of convection
Accumulated 24 Hour rainfall (in red) recorded at 0300UTC of 07March
3 hourly Past weather at 06/06, 06/09/06/12/06/15, 06/18, 06/21, 07/00, 07/03 hrs UTC
Tmax
Departure Tmax
Tendency Tmax
MSLP
Departure MSLP
Tendency MSLP
RH 06/12 UTC
RH 07/00 UTC
Name of Station
Reporting
BENGALURU CO
(43295)
BENGALURU HAL
(43296)
BENGALURU KIAL
(43293)
YELAHANKA IAF
BENGALURU GKVK
Sub-Division
SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA
SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA
SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA
SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA
SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA
STATE
KARNATAKA
KARNATAKA
KARNATAKA
Weather
Event
Date
Time of
Commencement
(IST)
Time of end
(IST)
06.03.2017
2030
2110
06.03.2017
2040
2230
1930
2120
06.03.2017
1940
2100
TSRA
TSRA
TSRA
06.03.2017
KARNATAKA
TSRA
KARNATAKA
TSRA
06.03.2017
2040
2100
06.03.2017
1605
1750
07.03.2017
0630
1300
0730
1400
1930
2050
Bhubaneswar
East India
Odisha
TSRA
AMRITSAR
Northwest India
Punjab
TS
PASSIGHAT
JORHAT
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam & Meghalaya
Arunachal Pradesh
TS
Assam
TS
N/LAKHIMPUR
Assam & Meghalaya
Assam
TS
06.03.2017
2105
2200
IMPHAL
NMMT
Manipur
TS
07.03.2017
0240
0250
Kodaikanal
South Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
TSRA
06.03.2017
Coonoor
North Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
TS
1510
1700
1545
1540
2130
1600
06.03.2017
06.03.2017
06.03.2017
Severe Weather warning based on DWR observation
Name of issuing radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing station (Lat,
Long,Alt.)
Date & time of issue in UTC
(yyyyMMddhhmm).
Nature of severe weather event expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
Name of issuing radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing Station(Lat, Long,
Alt)
Date and time of issue in
UTC(yyyyMMddhhmm)
Nature of severe weather expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
Name of issuing radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing Station(Lat, Long,
Alt)
Date and time of issue in
UTC(yyyyMMddhhmm)
Nature of severe weather expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
Name of issuing radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing Station(Lat, Long,
Alt)
Doppler Weather Radar Mumbai
Lat – 18˚ 54' 04", Long-72˚ 48' 32"/Height AMSL – 3.22 meters.
201703070700 UTC
No Severe Weather Event
Not Reported
DWR HYDERABAD
17.2562o N / 78.7656o E
0700 UTC of 07/03/2017
Light TS
Not Reported
DWR PATNA
07/03/2017
Not Reported
Not Reported
DWR MACHILIPATNAM
-
Date and time of issue in UTC
Nature of severe weather expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
07/03/2017
Not Reported
Not Reported
Name of issuing Radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing station(Lat, long,
Alt)
Date and time of issue in
UTC(yyyyMMddhhmm)
Nature of severe weather expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
Name of issuing Radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing station(Lat, long,
Alt)
DWR Kolkata
22.5705° N / 88.353° E, 7m
Date and time of issue in
UTC(yyyyMMddhhmm)
Nature of severe weather expected
Radar Report for past 24 hours
Name of issuing radar station
Geo-coordinates of issuing Station(Lat, Long,
Alt)
201703070600
201703070621 UTC
NIL
Not Reported
DWR Nagpur
21.1458° N, 79.0882° E
NIL
Not Reported
DWR KARAIKAL
Lat: 10.91381 N, Long: 79.84141 E/Alt: 25 m amsl
Date and time of issue in
UTC(yyyyMMddhhmm)
Nature of severe weather expected
201703070700
DWR UNSERVICEABLE