Download In this task, students will analyze current population demographics

Task 2, Lesson 1: Population and Climate Change
AP Topics
Human population dynamics
(Historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and doubling
times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams)
Population size
(Strategies for sustainability; case studies; national policies)
Impacts of population growth
(Hunger; disease; economic effects; resource use; habitat destruction)
Learning Objectives
Students will understand how to analyze a country’s population demographics and how to
use those demographics to predict future changes.
Students will understand drivers of human population growth and decline
Students will understand the relationship between population and affluence on climate
change
Lesson Steps in Brief
Pacing
5
1: Framing In
2: Introduction to Task Assignment
5
10
3: Lecture or Discussion: IPAT
4: Lecture (and small group discussion):
Human Population and Your Country
30-40
30
5. Work on country population
research/posters
Total time: 80-90 min.
Materials:



GCS_T2_L1_Task 2 Assignment .docx
GCS_T2_L1_Population Review.pptx
GCS_T2_L1_Demographic Transition Model.ppt
Optional
 GCS_T2_L1_NatGeo_World Population copy.pdf
 GCS_T2_L1_PopQuiz.pdf
Teacher Background and Planning Notes:
In this task, students will analyze current population demographics and predict future
demographics of their chosen country. They will create a poster that describes the current
GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country
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population demographics and drivers of growth of that country, looking at birth and death
rates, infant mortality, immigration, emigration, growth rates, etc. They will predict their
country’s future population size and hypothesize on what factors may contribute to future
population growth. This task sets the stage to think about the countries’ contribution to
climate change and the population and development pressures it is experiencing. This is a
task that needs to be completed prior to the AP exam.
Lesson Steps in Detail
Step 1: Framing In
People contribute to climate change. The size of your population, their level of wealth
(affluence) and their access to technology all contribute to their impact on climate
change. In this task, you’ll find out about how this works in your country. You will create
a poster to educate other countries about your country’s current and future population
in preparation for the Global Climate Summit.
Step 2: Introduction to Task Assignment
To start this task, pass out the task assignment, GCS_T2_L1_Task 2 Assignment
.docx which is a poster communicating information about the population of their
country. To be able to create this poster, they will need to learn more population
concepts and vocabulary, hence the supporting instruction you will provide.
Step 3: Brief Explanation of IPAT
The IPAT equation shows students the relationship of population, affluence and
technology to environmental impacts. Discuss the equation and how it is used in
calculating greenhouse gases (GHG). Have students read about the equation in their
textbook, if there is not time to go over it in class.
Environmental Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology.
The adaptation of this equation (below) has been used by IPCC (International Panel on
Climate Change) to model future climate change. Students do not need to memorize the
equation below, but need to understand the relationship between population, affluence,
and energy use to understand their country’s contribution to climate change.
CO2 Emissions = Population x (GDP/Population) x (Energy/GDP) x (CO2 /Energy)
By the end of this task and the next, students should have an understanding for
what part of this equation serves as the largest driver for CO2 emissions in their
country and which variables would be possible to change.
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Step 4: Lecture/Activities Human Population and Your Country’s Population
With an understanding of the potential impact of climate change (T1L3) on their country
and it’s contribution to climate change (above), you will now focus specifically on
population growth, development status, and energy consumption (next task). Those
characteristics of your country will influence what students are willing or able to
negotiate. This builds on previously learned content from earlier cycles.
You may want to get a feel of what your students know by giving them a quiz or leading a
discussion on these questions. (Or you can use the quiz GCS_T2_L1_PopQuiz.pdf)
1. How many people live on this planet?
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
2. Is the human population growing logistically or exponentially?
3. How is the human population increasing, if the overall growth rate has
decreased?
4. How many years will it take to get our first billion people? How many to get our
next billion?
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ (bottom of the page)
5. How varied are fertility rates in different countries? What is the cause of the
variance?
During the discussion, if it appears your students need a review of the material on
populations covered in previous cycles, go through this review with them:
GCS_Population Review.pptx
GCS_Demographic Transition Model.ppt provides a slide of the demographic
transition model and several questions that can be discussed in small groups. Be sure
students understand the model and how it applies to their country.
Optional Reading: discusses the phases of the transitional model and how it correlates
with population pyramids GCS_T2_L1_NatGeo_World Population copy.pdf
Step 5: Research/Work on Posters
After the discussion, give your students time (approximately 30 min.) to begin their
research on their country’s population. They will need access to computers. Many
developed nations will have their own data. For less developed nations you may want to
direct your students to
http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
and a site that creates population pyramids http://populationpyramid.net/
These are the questions from their task assignment that specify the information they
need to include on their posters.
1. What is your country’s current population? In your explanation, be sure to
include a current age structure diagram.
2. Use a chart to explain the crude birth rate, crude death rate, infant mortality
rate, and fertility rate for your country.
3. Include a graph showing population over time (as far back as you can get data
GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country
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4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
for) up until the present (using solid line) and then extrapolate future population
growth (using dotted line) to the year 2050. To extrapolate future growth, first
calculate growth rate and doubling time (show your calculations on your poster).
Use these to determine future growth.
Explain how many people do you think your country can support? Why?
What have been the major drivers of population change (i.e. women’s education,
infectious disease, family planning, access to clean water…). List these factors
and include pictures to illustrate them.
List and explain: How does your country’s population and population growth
impact the environment? Is this a problem? Describe how. If it isn’t, will it
become one given your future extrapolations? Include pictures to illustrate this.
Does your country need a population policy? Answer and use key words
a. If yes, how can you slow the human population growth rate in your
country?
b. If no, what policies are in place to control your country’s population size?
References Cited
Teacher Notes on this lesson:
GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country
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