Download Validated simulation tool for crisis management

Validated simulation tool for
crisis management strategies
and planned actions
Kuldar Taveter, Merik Meriste, Kalev
Rannat (TTU),
Markus Jähi (VTT),
Pascal Dihé, Martin Scholl (CIS),
Sergio Guarino (AMRA)
3.9.2015
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for
research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 284552 "CRISMA“
Deliverable No.
D44.4
Subproject No.
SP4
Work package No.
WP44
Validated simulation
tool for crisis
management strategies
and plannedactions
Models for MultiSubproject Title
Sectoral Consequences
Decision-Support and
Work package Title
Simulation Model
Kuldar Taveter (TTU), Merik Meriste (TTU), Kalev
Rannat (TTU) , Markus Jähi (VTT), Pascal Dihé
(CIS), Martin Scholl (CIS), Sergio Guarino
(AMRA)
F
CRISMA_D444_final.pdf
PU
Deliverable Title
Authors
Status (F = Final; D = Draft)
File Name
Dissemination level
(PU = Public; RE = Restricted; CO = Confidential)
Contact
[email protected]
[email protected]
Project
Keywords
Deliverable leader
Contractual Delivery
date to the EC
Actual Delivery date to
the EC
www.crismaproject.eu
Decision support, indicator, world state
Name:
Kuldar Taveter
Partner:
TTU
Contact:
31.8.2015
[email protected]
3.9.2015
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Disclaimer and licencing
The content of the publication herein is the sole responsibility of the publishers and it
does not necessarily represent the views expressed by the European Commission or its
services.
While the information contained in the documents is believed to be accurate, the
authors(s) or any other participant in the CRISMA consortium make no warranty of any
kind with regard to this material including, but not limited to the implied warranties of
merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
Neither the CRISMA Consortium nor any of its members, their officers, employees or
agents shall be responsible or liable in negligence or otherwise howsoever in respect of
any inaccuracy or omission herein.
Without derogating from the generality of the foregoing neither the CRISMA Consortium
nor any of its members, their officers, employees or agents shall be liable for any direct
or indirect or consequential loss or damage caused by or arising from any information
advice or inaccuracy or omission herein.
The software described in this document is licensed under the Creative Commons
Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bysa/3.0/).
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Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... III
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................. V
LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................. VI
GLOSSARY OF TERMS .................................................................................................. VII
ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................... XIV
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. XV
1.
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Purpose of the document .................................................................................... 1
1.2. Structure of the document ................................................................................... 1
2.
DECISION SUPPORT IN CRISMA ............................................................................. 3
2.1. Decision support concept .................................................................................... 3
2.1.1. World states ............................................................................................. 3
2.1.2. Indicators .................................................................................................. 4
2.1.3. Decision-support principles ...................................................................... 5
2.1.4. Ordered weighted averages as a mean for decision-support ................... 6
2.2. Decision-support functionalities .......................................................................... 6
2.3. Overview of the CRISMA Framework ................................................................. 8
2.4. CRISMA decision-support tools .......................................................................... 9
2.4.1. Scenario analysis and comparison view ................................................... 9
2.4.2. Multi criteria analysis and decision-support view .................................... 10
2.4.3. Time-dependent vulnerability ................................................................. 11
2.4.4. Cascading events and effects ................................................................ 13
2.4.5. Economic impacts .................................................................................. 14
2.5. Other Building Blocks related to decision-support............................................. 15
3.
VALIDATED SIMULATION TOOL FOR DECISION-SUPPORT .............................. 17
3.1. Decision support in the Nordic winter storm domain ......................................... 19
3.2. Decision support in the Coastal submersion domain ........................................ 21
3.3. Decision support in the Accidental pollution domain ......................................... 22
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3.4. Decision support in the Earthquake and forest fire domains ............................. 25
3.5. Decision support in the Resource management training and resource
planning domains .............................................................................................. 27
4.
CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 30
5.
REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 32
APPENDIX (A) BUILDING BLOCKS OF THE CRISMA FRAMEWORK .......................... 35
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List of Figures
Figure 1: World state evolution in CRISMA.......................................................................... 4
Figure 2: Overview of the decision-support concept of CRISMA. ........................................ 5
Figure 3: Summary of the CRISMA decision-support methodology. .................................... 7
Figure 4: Overview of the Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework. ............................... 9
Figure 5: Example of indicators-criteria table. .................................................................... 10
Figure 6: Example of defining a criterion function. ............................................................. 10
Figure 7: Example of decision strategy definition............................................................... 11
Figure 8: Example of decision ranking. .............................................................................. 11
Figure 9: Choice by the end user to model a sequence of earthquakes. ........................... 12
Figure 10: Parameterisation of an individual earthquake of a sequence............................ 13
Figure 11: Investigating cascading effects by means of the Cascading Effects Model. ..... 14
Figure 12: Example of scenario description. ...................................................................... 15
Figure 13: Overview on Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework. ................................ 35
Figure 14: Infrastructure Building Blocks. .......................................................................... 36
Figure 15: Integration Building Blocks................................................................................ 37
Figure 16: User Interaction Building Blocks. ...................................................................... 39
Figure 17: Crisis Management Models. ............................................................................. 43
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List of Tables
Table 1: Application Building Blocks. ................................................................................. 16
Table 2: CRISMA reference applications and implemented simulation scenarios. ............ 17
Table 3: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in reference application for the
Nordic winter storm domain. .............................................................................................. 19
Table 4: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the
Coastal submersion domain. ............................................................................................. 21
Table 5: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the
Accidental pollution domain. .............................................................................................. 23
Table 6: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the
Earthquake and forest fire domains. .................................................................................. 25
Table 7: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the
Resource management training domain. .......................................................................... 28
Table 8: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the
Resource planning domain. ............................................................................................... 29
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Glossary of terms
The glossary of terms most relevant to this deliverable has been generated from
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/glossary and reflects the current status of definitions.
Term
Agent
Building block
Cascade effects
Cascade events
Catalogue
Control and
Communication
Information Model
Conceptual model
Crisis
Crisis
management
Definition
A kind of "autonomous" and “active” OOI that does have control over
its behaviour, can act in the environment, perceive, and reason.
A Building Block (BB) is an abstract concept describing specific
functionality as an element of the CRISMA Framework. Building
Blocks are generic, composable, adaptable as well as domain- and
location-independent and thus transferable to different crisis
management domains. There are three different types of Building
Blocks: Infrastructure, Integration and User Interaction Building
Blocks.
Cascade effects describe the effects (consequences) of cascade
events and thus allow to evaluate indirect effects caused by the
originating incident.
Cascade events describe a sequence of adverse events generated
by a single or different sources. For example an earthquake that
causes ground motion that triggers a landslide.
CRISMA Catalogue is a wiki-like web application and can be
accessed through https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/ (if access permission
exists). Its main purpose is to simplify the task of finding
documentation on CRISMA Applications, Building blocks, Models,
etc., and furthermore to see how all this information is linked together.
The CRISMA glossary is now an integral part of the Catalogue.
The Control and Communication Information Model (CCIM) is defined
in the ICMM in a lightweight, common, minimal and generic form,
while each Federation can define its individual extension. It
conceptualises the shared commonalities of all CRISMA reference
scenarios.
The CRISMA conceptual model (meta model) for crisis management
describes conceptually how different types of world (environment)
models, incident models, and response models are related and
connected to each other for decision-making by crisis stakeholders.
A crisis (from the Greek
- krisis; plural: "crises"; adjectival form:
"critical") is any event that is, or is expected to lead to, an unstable
and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, community, or
whole society. Crises are deemed to be negative changes in the
security, economic, political, societal, or environmental affairs,
especially when they occur abruptly, with little or no warning. More
loosely, it is a term meaning 'a testing time' or an 'emergency event'.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis)
The process by which an organization deals with a major event that
threatens to harm the organization, its stakeholders, or the general
public. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_management)
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Crisis
management
cycle
CRISMA
application
CRISMA federate
CRISMA
federation
CRISMA
Framework
CRISMA system
Criteria
Criteria function
Decision making
Decision support
system
Emergency
Evacuation
Crisis management is a multiple-phase process, with the phases
often paralleling, rather than merely running sequentially, as implied
by common cycle illustration. A widely used 4-phases cycle defines
the "Preparedness", "Response", "Mitigation" and "Recovery" phases.
Within EU, the "Mitigation" phase is often replaced by "Prevention".
(http://securipedia.eu/mediawiki/index.php/Crisis_management_cycle)
A CRISMA Application is an integrated crisis management simulation
system that is build according to the concepts of the CRISMA
Framework Architecture. It is composed of (customised) Building
Blocks of the CRISMA Framework and integrated or federated legacy
components (simulation models, applications, systems, ...).
Any component that connects to the Middleware Infrastructure of the
CRISMA Framework and is able to exchange Control and
Communication Information with the Middleware Infrastructure. More
specifically, a CRISMA Federate has to be aware of the API of the
ICMM.
A number of CRISMA Federates that act together as a unit. A
CRISMA Federation is a subset of a CRISMA Application.
A framework composed of ready-to-use Building Blocks and
supporting tools that can be connected together to form a CRISMA
Application.
In the perception of the architecture, the CRISMA System is the
overall project results consisting of all CRISMA Applications.
Criteria relate indicators to a qualitative assessment of the respective
crisis situation. Indicators and corresponding criteria are the basis for
the CRISMA decision-support concept.
A Criteria function maps an indicator to a criterion.
Decision making can be regarded as the cognitive process resulting
in the selection of a course of action among several alternative
scenarios. Every decision-making process produces a final choice.
The output can be an action or an opinion of choice. (Wikipedia,
2013)
Decision Support Systems (DSS) make up a specific class of
computerized information systems that support business and
organizational decision-making activities. A properly designed DSS is
an interactive software-based system intended to help decisionmakers to compile useful information from raw data, documents,
personal knowledge, and/or business models to identify and solve
problems and make decisions.
Any incident, whether natural, technological, or human-caused, that
requires responsive action to protect life or property (FEMA Glossary,
2013)
1- Emergency evacuation: Removal of persons from a dangerous
place due to a disaster (e.g. in the context of Reference Application
for the Earthquake and Forest Fire Domains)
2- Casualty movement: the procedure for moving a casualty from its
initial location to an ambulance (e.g. in the context of Reference
Application for the Resource Management Training Support)
(Wikipedia, 2013)
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Evaluation
Event
Exposure
Feature
Hazard
Impact
Impact scenario
Incident
Indicator
Indicator function
Infrastructure
Evaluation is “systematic investigation of the worth or merit of an
object.” (Frechtling 2011). Evaluation is a valuable source of
information on how a project is being implemented, specifically, what
works and what should be modified.
Phase associated with the natural catastrophe occurrence, usually of
short duration, and characterised by a severe modification of the
scenario.
People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones
that are thereby subject to potential losses (UNISDR, 2009).
A "Feature" (ISO 19101 (2002), OGC 08-126 (2009)) is "an
abstraction of a real world phenomenon". A feature is considered
"geographic feature" if it is associated with a location. According to
OGC 08-126 (2009), the geographic features are "fundamental unit of
geospatial information".
A “dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition”
(UNISDR, 2009) - characterized by its location, intensity, frequency
and probability - that may cause adverse impacts on a social (e.g,
loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social
and economic services disruption) or environmental (e.g., ecological
damages) system (e.g., Pelling et al., 2004; Birkmann et al., 2013;
Dewan, 2013)
Consequences of a hazardous event once it materializes, i.e. actually
affects a societal system.
Time-dependent scenario focusing on the effects of the event chain.
Consequences of the several events, hazards and countermeasures
of a scenario.
An occurrence, natural or human-caused, that requires a response to
protect life or property. Incidents can, for example, include major
disasters, emergencies, terrorist attacks, terrorist threats, civil unrest,
wildland and urban fires, floods, hazardous materials spills, nuclear
accidents, aircraft accidents, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes,
tropical storms, tsunamis, war-related disasters, public health and
medical emergencies, and other occurrences requiring an emergency
response (FEMA Glossary, 2013).
A thing that indicates the state or level of something (Oxford
dictionaries). In CRISMA, an Indicator is an aggregation of elements
of a world state produced by an indicator function and is one element
of an indicator vector. Indicators are a concept that helps us to bring
more structure in World States with the help of an indicator function
(aggregating thus losing information) so we can do e.g. algebraic
computations on this representation of world states for the benefit of
being able to better evaluate complex World State data.
An Indicator function produces an aggregated image of a world state.
Infrastructure in a crisis management context covers for instance
dikes, hospitals, rescue bases and critical infrastructure (as water,
power, telecommunication networks) etc.
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Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware
Interface
Key performance
indicator
Losses
Mitigation
Model
Object of interest
The ICMM (Integrated Crisis Management Middleware) is a central
Building Block in every CRISMA Application. It connects Crisis
Management Simulations with the Analysis and Decision Support
functionality of CRISMA by providing a central repository for
harmonized world state and indicator information. The ICMM is fed by
simulations providing the basic information to be used for world state
analysis and decision-support Building Blocks.
In the context of ICT, a named set of operations that characterise the
behaviour of an entity. The aggregation of operations in an interface,
and the definition of the interface, shall be for the purpose of software
re-usability. The specification of an interface shall include a static
portion that includes definition of the operations. The specification of
an interface shall include a dynamic portion that includes any
restrictions on the order of invoking the operations (ISO 19119, 2005).
A Key performance indicator (KPI) is a prominent performance
indicator that is of particular importance e.g. because it relates to
legal obligations. Key performance indicator help to characterise and
compare alternative scenarios with respect to the crisis management
measures that have been done.
The amount of realized damages as consequence of an occurred
hazard. A typical subdivision of the type of losses is between direct
losses (as consequences of the damage caused by adverse events)
and indirect losses (business interruptions caused by an occurred
hazard).
(1) The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and
related disasters.
(2) One of the phases of the Crisis Management Cycle. Often
replaced by "Prevention" within EU
A model is a hypothetical simplified description of a complex entity or
process (Sterling & Taveter, 2009). A model can be considered as “an
abstract representation of a system or process” (Carson, 2005). A
model is a physical, mathematical, or otherwise logical representation
of a system, entity, phenomenon, or process that has been designed
for a specific purpose (NATO, 2010). Stachowiak (1973) describes a
model using three features: the mapping feature (reproduction of the
original), the reduction feature (abstraction of the original) and the
pragmatic feature (addressing a purpose for its user).
Object of Interest (OOI) is used in CRISMA to designate objects that
are of interest to crisis management practitioners and therefore need
to be represented and handled by a CRISMA Application. More
precisely, the term is used for IT-representation of such objects within
CRISMA. The term was initially introduced as disambiguation of the
word "resources". However, the OOI can also represent objects,
which aren't considered resources by crisis managers, such as
hospitals, dams or residential buildings. Since OOI instances always
exist in a spatial and temporal context, OOI can be considered a
specialization of the "Feature" as defined by ISO 19101 (2002) and
OGC 08-126 (2009).
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Performance
indicator
Physical
vulnerability
Pilot
Preparedness
Prevention
Recovery
Requirement
Resource
Resource
management
A Performance Indicator is an Indicator that can be used to assess
the result of an Experiment. In that sense there must always be a
corresponding criterion defining the level of satisfaction regarding a
specific decision objective.
Physical Vulnerability expresses the propensity of an asset (or
generically element at risk, or Object Of Interest OOI) to sustain a
certain damage level in a suitably defined damage scale
A pilot within CRISMA manages the definition and implementation of
a CRISMA pilot application and provides the data for a specific crisis
scenario and for a specific application functionality. This results in a
demonstrator that is used during a demonstration and for
experimentation purposes in order to validate the CRISMA software.
CRISMA pilots (pilot sites) provide generic experimentation frame and
validations for testing, validate and promote CRISMA system and
provide necessary return of experience in order to validate CRISMA
in relevant wide range of crisis management situations including
multi-risk and domino effects.
(1) The knowledge and capacities developed by governments,
professional response and recovery organizations, communities and
individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from, the
impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard events or conditions.
(2) One of the phases of the Crisis Management Cycle
One of the phases of the Crisis Management Cycle (mainly used in
EU, see "Mitigation"). Prevention (i.e. disaster prevention)
encompasses activities designed to provide permanent protection
against disasters. It includes engineering and other physical
protective measures, and also legislative measures controlling land
use and urban planning. (2009 UN-ISDR, Sahana – Glossary)
(1) The restoration, and improvement where appropriate, of facilities,
livelihoods and living conditions of disaster-affected communities,
including efforts to reduce disaster risk factors.
(2) One of the phases of the Crisis Management Cycle
A singular documented physical and functional need that CRISMA
system should perform. It is a statement that identifies a necessary
attribute, capability, characteristic, or quality of a system for it to have
value and utility to a user. (Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Requirement)
Crisis management context: Resources are deployed in the scope of
crisis management activities. Resources may include material (e.g.
sandbags, medical products, oxygen tank), personnel (e.g. medical
officer, ambulance driver, crisis manager), vehicles (e.g. fire trucks),
protection infrastructure and facilities (e.g. hospital, shelters),
installations (e.g. weirs).
IT-context: Resource is every possible data object as part of the
common CRISMA meta information model.
Crisis management context: the interactions between actors in crisis
management and how they affect each other including the steering
and governance of crisis response actions and resources such as
vehicles, personnel and equipment.
IT-context: Management in terms of storage, creation, update and
delete of data objects in the context of IT implementation.
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Response
Risk
Scenario
Simulation
Simulation case
Simulation model
Simulation results
Situation
System
Time of the
original hazard
event
Time dependent
vulnerability
Transition
Tuning
Immediate actions to save and sustain lives, protect property and the
environment, and meet basic human needs. Response also includes
the execution of plans and actions to support short-term recovery.
(FEMA, 2010)
The combination of the probability of an event and its negative
consequences.
A scenario describes the development of a situation over time. Crisis
management scenarios are used to understand the impact of hazards
and to evaluate the outcomes of alternative mitigation actions within
changing conditions. In the CRISMA architecture, such scenarios are
represented as consecutive world states.
A simulation is the manipulation of a model in such a way that it
represents the expected behaviour of an individual actor or an entire
system over time (NATO, 2010). In CRISMA a simulation is a
computational process that uses World state data and Simulation
control parameters as input and produces another World state
containing the Simulation result.
A simulation case describes the user context, the objects of interests,
the simulation models, simulation objectives and the user actions that
are relevant for the modelling and simulation of a crisis management
scenario with a CRISMA application.
A software that implements a model and allows simulation, no matter
if it provides an own user interface or operates integrated in a larger
software.
Simulation results are the output values of a specific simulation run.
They provide the content of a specific scenario (series of world
states).
State of the crisis at a certain moment. Represented as a status of the
scenario in a CRISMA world state.
System is a set of entities connected together to make a complex
whole or perform a complex function (Sterling & Taveter, 2009).
System can also be defined as a complex of interacting components
and relationships among them that permit the identification of a
boundary-maintaining entity or process (Laszlo & Krippner, 1998).
Time at which the original hazard occurred (T0). After this moment
other hazard events may occur has a consequence of cascading
effects.
Referring to physical vulnerability, time-dependent vulnerability is
defined as the vulnerability affected by deterioration of elements
characteristics due to ageing and/or damage.
In a broader sense, time dependent vulnerability generally indicates
the variation of vulnerability characteristics over time (in the
understanding of CRISMA, this e.g. also includes spatio-temporal
patterns of exposure or varying situation patterns during the process
of evacuation).
A transition is a relationship between two CRISMA world states. It can
originate either from a CRISMA simulation model run or from a
manual change by a CRISMA user.
Act of changing the values or ranging of parameters of scenario with
the aim of find the best performance in terms of impact.
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Use case
Vulnerability
Widget
World State
A list of steps, typically defining interactions between a user and a
system, to achieve a certain goal (Cockburn, 1999). A use case is
described as "a generalized description of a set of interactions
between the system and one or more actors, where an actor is either
a user or another system". (Cohn, 2004).
The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or
asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard
(UNISDR, 2009).
Is an element of a GUI realised as an component providing a
specialized user interface functionality. A complete GUI consists of a
number of widgets.
A particular status of the world, defined in the space of parameters
describing the situation in a crisis management simulation, that
represents a snapshot (situation) along the crisis evolvement. The
change of world state, that may be triggered by simulation or
manipulation activities by the CRISMA user, corresponds to a change
of (part of) its data contents. A world state is the CRISMA architecture
concept realising the CRISMA scenario ((situation (x,t)). A world state
contains either some data(x,t) itself or contains a pointer to a previous
world state that contains either the data or again a pointer.
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Acronyms
Term
AIT
BB
CCIM
CM
DoW
DS
GIS
GUI
ICMM
IT
KPI
MCDA
MVC
OOI
OWA
UI
WS
WP
Definition
Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, CRISMA partner
Building Block
The Control and Communication Information Model
Crisis Management
Description of Work
Decision Support
Geographical Information System
Graphical User Interface
Integrated Crisis Management Middleware
Information Technology
Key Performance Indicator
Multiple Criteria Decision Analyses
Model – View – Controller
Object of Interest
Ordered Weighted Averages
User Interface
World State
Work Package
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Executive Summary
This document has been produced by the consortium of the European Project FP7SECURITY – 284552 “Modelling crisis management for improved action and
preparedness” (CRISMA). The document introduces the generic CRISMA Framework from
the decision-support perspective. It describes the software components (Building Blocks),
which have been developed and validated in CRISMA, and gives an overview of the the
underlying decision-support concept. In addition, the document provides links to the
CRISMA online Catalogue, where all the Building Blocks are described in more detail. The
complete list of all the Building Blocks, models and tools developed in the project is also
presented in the Appendix of the document.
Instead of developing individual crisis management solutions from scratch, a generic
software framework – CRISMA Framework – has been developed in CRISMA. The
CRISMA Framework is composed of a range of different software components, models
and supporting tools that can be connected together to form different simulation
applications for all kinds of crisis domains.
With the CRISMA software Framework, crisis managers and other decision-makers are
offered possibilities to combine models, data and expertise originating in many different
sources, for creating a wider perception of crisis scenarios and alternative preparedness,
response and mitigation actions. Moreover, CRISMA scenario comparison and
visualisation tools can be utilised to improve multi-organisational cooperation and
communication with other stakeholders and the public.
The feasibility of the Framework, the developed software components and the underlying
decision-support concept have been tested and validated in five real-life cases
representing different crisis management contexts. Different crisis management
applications built around the CRISMA Framework can support numerous different types of
decisions. In general, it enables the users to analyse and compare different scenarios in
order to identify sound and efficient mitigation strategies, all of which can either be
included in preparedness plans or used to train decision-makers and other stakeholders.
The generic CRISMA software Framework is based on a simulation and decison support
concept. This decision-support methodology with the related software emphasise the fact
that criteria and ranking functions represent opinions rather than facts. They are highly
situation dependent and different stakeholders are likely to disagree on definitions and
relative importance of different criteria. Users are therefore encouraged to define several
sets of criteria and ranking functions and compare the outcomes.
For more comprehensive description of the CRISMA results, crisis management cases
and software Framework, see Heikkilä, Havlik & Schlobinski (2015).
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1. Introduction
1.1. Purpose of the document
This document introduces the generic CRISMA Framework from the decision-support
perspective. It describes the software components, which have been developed in
CRISMA and validated in five real-life crisis management cases. In addition, the document
gives an overview of the the underlying decision-support concept.
The CRISMA Framework is composed of a range of different software components,
models and supporting tools that can be connected in various ways to form different
simulation applications for specific crisis domains. Different components of the CRISMA
Framework allow for the interactive creation of crisis scenarios, the introduction of
mitigation options, and the investigation of the effects of simulated decisions and actions.
The CRISMA Framework also allows for the analysis and comparison of different
scenarios and the iterative identification of sound and efficient mitigation strategies, all of
which can either be included in preparedness plans or used to train decision-makers and
other stakeholders.
From the decision-support perspective this presumes that a range of different
functionalities are supported by the CRISMA Framework and the related software. This
report presents the software components and tools developed for decision-support and
validated in five different reference applicatations in CRISMA. All relevant decision-support
related Building Blocks (BB) of the CRISMA Framework are listed in this document. The
document also provides links to the CRISMA online Catalogue, where all the Building
Blocks are described in more detail. In addition, the complete list of all the Building Blocks,
models and tools developed in the project is presented in the Appendix.
The target readers of this document are on the one hand the public interested in the
CRISMA project and on the other hand crisis managers and stakeholders involved in crisis
management.
1.2. Structure of the document
The structure of the document and the relationships between the different chapters and
appendixes is as follows:
Chapter 1 (this chapter) introduces the document, offers a brief overview, and explains the
overall purpose of this document and its intended audience.
Chapter 2 presents the conceptual background (the concepts of world state, indicator,
criterion) applied in the CRISMA Framework, which form the main foundation of the
decision-making processes supported by the CRISMA decision-support (DS) tool. Further
it gives an overview of the generic CRISMA Framework and describes the implemented
DS functionalities and the DS software.
Chapter 3 describes the validated simulation tool for DS in crisis management strategies
and planned actions and presents the software components developed in CRISMA as they
have been implemented and validated in the five CRISMA reference applications.
Chapter 4 concludes the work on DS that has been done in CRISMA.
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The document ends with References and Appendix. The latter presents a comprehensive
list of the software and tools developed in CRISMA, including links to the CRISMA online
Catalogue for full descriptions of the software components and tools.
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2. Decision support in CRISMA
2.1. Decision support concept
2.1.1. World states
In this section, we summarize the main aspects of the conceptual model of the CRISMA
Framework and relevant terms that are required for understanding the following section on
indicators and the simulation model and virtual application described in Chapter 3.
The situation of the world at a given time during a crisis management scenario is
represented in the CRISMA system as a world state, which contains a structured collection
of data records – Objects of Interest (OOI). The scenario evolves in terms of the CRISMA
world by transitions from one world state to the next world state, while the content of OOI-s
is updated by simulations and services applied at the transition.
The initial world state (Figure 1) is specified by an initial collection of OOI-s representing
the inventory data, meteorological data etc. provided by the CRISMA user and/or retrieved
through dedicated applications and web services that are interfaced with the CRISMA
system.
Starting from the world state of interest the CRISMA user can simulate the evolvement of
generic crisis phases (e.g. preparedness, response) either by conducting predefined
simulations from the current world state or through direct manipulation of the current world
state data. The world state transition is conducted by one or several simulation models
attached to the transition that take selected world state data as input values and produce
new world state data as output values. Multiple evolvement traces are acceptable as the
world state can also be updated and changed by a CRISMA user to define alternative
scenarios. This is represented in Figure 1 by the manipulation feature. The knob drawn
within the “Manipulation” tag represents the user’s interaction with the system either by
directly manipulating the world state data, or by tuning the control parameters of a
simulation model. Moreover, in a world state, indicators, criteria and costs can be
calculated to give representative and quantitative information for the analysis and
assessment of the current world state. This analysis supports decisions related to the
selection of subsequent actions including the generation of alternative scenarios.
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Figure 1: World state evolution in CRISMA.
Time is one of the key world state (WS) parameters, which may, but does not always have
to be simulated in world state transitions. In the simplest case the time can be introduced
by a partial order of world states (in a given timescale), where the next state is considered
to appear later in time and simulated durations of world state transitions can vary.
Evolvement of real time can be captured by time stamps attached to WSs. Let us mention
that this alternative depends on the timescale of simulations applied to transitions because
there are (intentionally) no means for synchronization of simulation activities except
through manipulating the world states themselves. It is also possible to record time series
for the transition period between two world states. This can help to keep the number of
world states small, while still retaining the possibility to analyse the evolvement of time on
a higher level of granularity.
2.1.2. Indicators
Indicators form the basis of DS provided by the CRISMA applications. Indicators in the
CRISMA Framework characterize aspects of interest of the quantiative statuses of WSs
within scenarios. An indicator is represented by a single scalar value attached to a
CRISMA world state and can be, for example, aggregate values from the current world
state by a function (e.g., average value or minimum or maximum values in a given region
for a given time). An indicator may be represented numerically or graphically as a spatial
indicator, such as a color-coded map indicating, for example, the number of casualties in
different areas.
Indicators may refer to hazard, vulnerability, impact or response aspects of crisis
management. They can also describe the relationships such as the number of first
responders with regard to the number of affected people, or the percentage of injured
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people. Even though indicators are neutral and purely descriptive, the selection of
indicators is nevertheless a statement referring to which aspects of crisis management are
relevant to consider. For the CRISMA Framework, we recommend some general principles
of selecting indicators and specifying indicator functions. The main principle for selecting
indicators for the CRISMA Framework is that any indicator should be expressed in
measurable, replicable and reasonably easy to interpret units in the crisis management
context.
A criterion is the qualitative counterpart of a quantitative indicator from a decision-making
perspective that is constructed by a criterion function that defines the value-intervals for an
indicator and assigns the “scale of satisfaction” to these intervals.
2.1.3. Decision-support principles
The overall idea of the decision-support concept employed in the reference applications
and indeed in the whole CRISMA Framework is to: (a) Let the decision-maker produce and
use scenarios in support of his/her decisions; (b) provide aggregated but representative
information about the scenarios in the form of indicators at world states; (c) support the
decision-maker in defining an explicit decision-making strategy; and (d) assist the
decision-maker in comparing and ranking scenarios according to the decision-making
strategy.
Figure 2: Overview of the decision-support concept of CRISMA.
The overall decision-support concept consists of: (1) an impact, mitigation or mission
scenario represented by a set of consecutive world states (see section 2.1) – a
prespecified record of information for decision-support; (2) indicator functions applicable to
world states; (3) a set of representative indicator values of the scenario (resulting from
applying the indicator functions to the world states of the scenario); (4) criteria functions
that map indicator sets to (5) the level of satisfaction (decision criteria) on a normalised
scale (0-1 or 0%-100%); and (6) the scoring function mapping a vector of criteria to a
single scalar “score” value that can be used to sort scenarios and determine their rank
among the elements of the scenario selection. The decision-support concept described
above is illustrated by Figure 2.
The decision-maker can use the four types of information entities – impact mitigation or
mission scenarios, scenario indicators, decision criteria, scores and scenario ranks – as a
basis for his/her decisions and specify his/her individual decision-making strategy by the
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individual definition of criteria functions mapping indicators to the selected criteria. The
decision-maker can tune decision-making also by assigning priorities to indicators as well
as by applying their compositions. In summary, the decision-maker can:
Use indicators derived from scenario data (usually aggregated) to quickly
assess and compare scenarios;
Define a decision-making strategy by:
o Mapping performance indicators to decision criteria by defining for each
indicator a function that maps indicator values to the corresponding level of
satisfaction;
o Defining priorities (levels of importance) by assigning weights to indicators;
o Defining the level of Andness and Orness (Dujmovi , 2007) to be considered
when computing the rank of a scenario;
Deal with a multi-criteria decision problem by obtaining a ranking of scenarios
with respect to the decision-making strategy defined.
2.1.4. Ordered weighted averages as a mean for decision-support
Decision-making problems considering more than one criterion on the basis of, for
example, impact scenarios require appropriate methods to assess the performance of
specific scenarios. For our decision-support concept we have selected the Ordered
weighted averages method (OWA) (Yager, 1988; Yager, 1996; Zuccaro & Filomena, 1988)
that allows one to specify a particular multi-criteria decision-making strategy by defining
the following properties of a good solution:
Implement several decision-makers’ perspectives (multiple points of view);
Make the decision-making strategy more explicit;
Obtain a score/rank for each scenario;
Let the decision-maker choose between different decision-making strategies
(e.g., optimistic, neutral, pessimistic);
Compare the results obtained under different strategies.
Using OWA, normalized indicator values (criteria) are multiplied with the corresponding
levels of importance. The vector of weighted levels of satisfaction for all indicators is
ordered according to their absolute values and weighted according to their position in the
vector. In CRISMA these weights are defined manually by the decision-maker (see D44.3
(2015), section 3.4).
2.2. Decision-support functionalities
CRISMA decision-support principles are depicted in Figure 3, based on Heikkilä, Havlik &
Schlobinski (2015). From left to right, the amount of information is reduced from “complete
world data” to a single number.
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Figure 3: Summary of the CRISMA decision-support methodology.
The CRISMA decision-support methodology and software emphasise the fact that criteria
and ranking functions represent opinions rather than facts. They are highly situation
dependent and different stakeholders are likely to disagree on the definitions and relative
importance of different criteria. Users are therefore encouraged to define several sets of
criteria and ranking functions and compare the outcomes.
CRISMA Applications (built by combining CRISMA Building Blocks listed in section 2.3.
and Appendix A) comprise the following DS functionalities:
Viewing world states enables to browse and view different scenarios that have
been already created as well as browse the information recorded in any of the
available world states of these scenarios;
Executing simulations in order to discover alternative scenarios. Virtually every
world state within any alternative scenario can be picked as the starting point of
a simulation;
Applying mitigation options in the simulations in order to produce alternative
“sub-plans”;
Investigating cascade effects to get insight into possible hazards that are
initiated by the impacts of primary hazards as triggering events. It is implied that
there is already a (simulated) primary hazard with a certain intensity available;
Analysing and comparing scenarios that allows to consider multiple scenarios at
different abstraction levels for finding the ”best” solution under the current
decision objectives. The abstraction levels of decision-support in analysing and
comparing scenarios are as follows:
o world state (provides insight of the information captured by a world state);
o indicators of a world state;
o criteria (qualifies indicators by means of user-defined criteria functions);
o multi-criteria analysis (for specification of user-defined decision strategies).
CRISMA applications are composed in terms the available Building Blocks according to
the required functionalities. A detailed overview of five CRISMA reference application is
presented in Chapter 0.
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2.3. Overview of the CRISMA Framework
The CRISMA Framework provides the software and tools that are necessary to develop
concrete CRISMA applications. The CRISMA Framework consists of generic, composable
and reusable Building Blocks (BB) that can be assembled into concrete applications for
simulating crises and crisis management.
The CRISMA Framework provides infrastructure BBs, integration BBs, user interaction
BBs, and crisis management models (Heikkilä, Havlik & Schlobinski, 2015):
Infrastructure BBs work in the “background” and constitute the backbone of a
CRISMA application.
Integration BBs support the integration of data and simulation models into a
CRISMA application.
User interaction BBs are graphical user-interface elements of a CRISMA
application.
Crisis Management Models are simulation models that cover different aspects of
crisis management.
Figure 4 gives an overview on all infrastructure BBs (red), integration BBs (orange), user
interaction BBs (blue) and Crisis Management Models (green) that belong to the CRISMA
Framework. The complete list of all the software developed in CRISMA is presented in
Appendix A of this document, including links to the CRISMA Catalogue (2015), where all
the Building Blocks are described in more detail (for more comprehensive description of
the CRISMA Framework, see Heikkilä, Havlik & Schlobinski, (2015) and CRISMA D35.2
(2015)).
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Object of Interest
Worldstate
Repository
Population
Exposure
Model
OOI Management
View
Resource
Management
Model
Resource Management
Training Simulation
Scenario Setup View
Worldstate
View
UI Integration
Platform
Simulation Model
Integration
Integrated
Planning View
Agent-Oriented
Simulation Models
Data Integration
Simulation Model
Interaction View
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
Preparedness
Plan
CRISMA
Framework
UI Mashup
Platform
Indicator
Building Block
Resource Management
Training Indicators
and Statistic View
GIS View
Resource
Management
Tactical Training View
Integrated
Crisis Management
Middleware
Time Dependent
Vulnerability Model
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
Resource Management
Training Dispatch
and Monitor View
Economic Impacts
Analysis View
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
Resource Management
Training Indicators
and Statistic View
Economic Impacts
Model
Publish/Subscribe
Context Broker
Scenario Analysis
and Comparison
View
Cascading Effects
Model
Social Vulnerability
Figure 4: Overview of the Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework.
The subsequent section 2.4 introduces the five main software components for decisionsupport of the CRISMA Framework and the following section 2.5 presents all CRISMA
Framework Building Blocks related to decision-support.
2.4. CRISMA decision-support tools
In the following subsections, we introduce the five main software components for decisionsupport of the CRISMA Framework.
2.4.1. Scenario analysis and comparison view
The scenario analysis and comparison view consists of several widgets and visually
represents the data on indicators and criteria for side-by-side comparison of different
simulated scenarios. The vector of indicators is mainly based on selected quantities (e.g.,
the number of casualties) calculated from a scenario. To be effectively used in the context
of decision-support, indicators need to be qualified by assigning to the indicator data the
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levels of satisfaction. The resulting “normalised” indicators can be better used as decision
criteria. As the data on indicators and the data on criteria have the same format (vector of
scalar values), both can be displayed in the same way. The following widgets are available
for the analysis of a scenario or alternative scenarios if applicable:
Indicators` and criteria table widget visualises the data on indicators and/or
criteria in a table-like view (see Figure 5);
Indicators` and criteria chart widgets allow users to correlate the values of
individual indicators and criteria;
Criteria functions` definition widget allows the definition of functions to map
indicator values to criteria (see Figure 6);
Criteria spider chart widget shows the data as a spider chart (a.k.a. radar chart)
in order to support a quick assessment of the overall performance of the
selected scenarios.
Figure 5: Example of indicators-criteria table.
Figure 6: Example of defining a criterion function.
For detailed description and application examples, see earlier public deliverable D44.3
(2015) and CRISMA Catalogue (2015):
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Scenario-Analysis-and-Comparison-View
2.4.2. Multi criteria analysis and decision-support view
While the scenario analysis and comparison view allows for the comparison of indicators
and criteria for different scenarios, the multi criteria analysis and decision-support view
allows for the ranking of different scenarios with respect to a specific decision-making
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strategy. When doing so, this view introduces complementary decision-support
functionalities. The view is composed of the following two widgets:
the decision strategy widget that allows for defining weighting (emphasis)
strategies for different criteria. This way, a weighting factor can be assigned to
each indicator (see Figure 7);
the decision ranking widget that is used to visualise the actual ranking on the
basis of the currently selected criteria functions and decision-making strategy
(see Figure 8).
Figure 7: Example of decision strategy definition.
Figure 8: Example of decision ranking.
For detailed description and application examples, see earlier public deliverable D44.3
(2015) and CRISMA Catalogue (2015):
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Multi-Criteria-Analysis-and-Decision-Support-View
2.4.3. Time-dependent vulnerability
The Time Dependent Vulnerability (TDV) Model is a model for the assessment of timedependent damage that has occurred on elements at risk. The TDV Model allows for
performing consistent computation of time-dependent damage by the use of suitably
updated vulnerabilities (taking into account already occurred damage). The TDV Model is
“domain-independent” in the sense that the logic scheme is the same for different hazard
domains (e.g., earthquake, flood, extreme weather …), but there is the need to suitably
instantiate the model for each hazard domain to use the model for computing timedependent losses (in terms of damages that have occurred in the established damage
scale).
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The TDV Model is exemplified by Figures 9 and 10. Figure 9 shows the choice by the end
user to simulate three earthquakes in a row resembling a cascade or sequence of
earthquakes. Figure 10 shows the actual parameterisation of earthquakes which has to be
done for every earthquake of the sequence.
Figure 9: Choice by the end user to model a sequence of earthquakes.
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Figure 10: Parameterisation of an individual earthquake of a sequence.
For detailed description and application examples, please see the earlier public deliverable
D43.2 (2014) and the CRISMA Catalogue (2015):
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/
Time%20Dependent%20Vulnerability%20model%20%28TDV%29
2.4.4. Cascading events and effects
The Cascading Effects Model for dynamic scenario assessment calculates the probability
of attainment of cascading events` scenarios, given an initial triggering event. The model
estimates the probability of consequence paths for a given scenario. Within the model, a
set of scenarios and an event transition matrix are defined as the two fundamental pieces
of information required to assess the effects of possible hazard cascades.
Figure 11 illustrates the usage of the Cascading Effects Model in a CRISMA reference
application.
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Figure 11: Investigating cascading effects by means of the Cascading Effects Model.
For a detailed description and application examples, please see the earlier public
deliverable D42.3 (2014) and CRISMA Catalogue (2015):
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Cascading%20Effects%20Model
2.4.5. Economic impacts
The Economic Impacts Model is a model for representing economic impacts arising from
crises (i.e., ex post performance) and assessing different mitigation options and their
potential costs and benefits (i.e., ex ante planning). This model is intended to be used in
the preparedness phase of crisis management to support long-term strategic decisionmaking in, for example, the selection of specific infrastructure measures. The model uses
the comparison of alternative scenarios (e.g., a base line scenario and crisis scenario after
implementing a mitigation measure) for making the economic assessment. The
assessment is done by determining economic losses resulting from a crisis and costs and
benefits associated with different options of mitigation investments. An example of the
tool’s graphical user interface is presented in Figure 12.
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Figure 12: Example of scenario description.
For a detailed description and application examples, please see the earlier public
deliverable D44.2 (2015) and CRISMA Catalogue (2015):
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Economic%20impacts%20model
2.5. Other Building Blocks related to decision-support
The decision-support components described in section 2.4 are the specific key Building
Blocks of the CRISMA Framework serving decision-support. However, a number of other
BBs developed in the project also offer functionalities that are categorised as decisionsupport and form the CRISMA decision-support tool together with the main components
overviewed in section 2.4. Table 1 provides a full overview of the CRISMA Building Blocks
serving decision-support. For more details on the specific Building Blocks, please follow
the links to the CRISMA Catalogue (2015) provided in the table.
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Table 1: Application Building Blocks.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform
for integration and
management of the
information from different
sources, such as, for example,
simulations, indicators and the
world state model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Data Integration
Integration
This BB is used to access
geospatial data of the various
world states of a CRISMA
application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/32
Indicator Building
Block
Integration
This BB allows for the
definition, storage and
evaluation of simple algebraic
models of indicators in order to
evaluate consequences of
decisions made by CRISMA
users during a training session
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/28
UI Integration
Platform BB
User Interaction
This BB hosts and integrates
other User Interaction Building
Blocks
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/84
Worldstate View
User Interaction
This BB is used to visualise
and manipulate the information
related to the CRISMA world
states and world state
transitions
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/146
GIS View Building
Block
User Interaction
This BB enables the
visualisation and manipulation
of geospatial data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/90
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
User Interaction
This BB enables the
visualisation of cascade
events’ probabilities and
parameterisation of hazard
models
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/165
Simulation Model
Interaction View
User Interaction
This BB allows end users to
interact with the various
simulation models exposed by
the Simulation Model
Integration BB
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/62
Multi Criteria
Analysis and
Decision Support
View
User Interaction
This BB allows for performing
rankings of different crisis
management scenarios with
respect to specific criteria
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/162
Simulation Model
Integration BB
Integration
This BB enables the
integration of several
heterogeneous simulation
models in a standardized way
to participate in a CRISMA
application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/34
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3. Validated simulation tool for decision-support
Decision support functionalities described in sections 2.4 and 2.5 were implemented in the
tool for decision-support that forms a key part of the CRISMA Framework. Five reference
applications have been set up in the CRISMA project to work as templates for the
development of crisis management simulation applications for specific crisis domains.
Since a CRISMA application consists of a combination of several components offered by
the CRISMA Framework, users may choose, according to their decision-support needs,
which Building Blocks they want to include in any particular CRISMA application. Thus, the
applications are not only different from the perspective of an application architecture but
also from the decision-support point of view.
In general, simulation applications built around the CRISMA Framework can support
numerous types of decisions. The five reference applications that were used for
experimentation and testing in CRISMA help decision-makers to support long-term
mitigation and resource planning in the following ways:
exploring the impacts of natural disasters in a multi-risk framework including
cascading effects;
analysing different strategies and mititgation options as the result of crisis
management decisions.
The reference applications can be divided into the categories of long-term planning, shortterm resource management planning, and training. Table 2 provides an overview of the
simulation scenarios considered in the CRISMA reference applications. Various aspects of
the decision-support approach applied in CRISMA are discussed in the following public
deliverables and publications: D44.2 (2014), D44.3 (2015), Heikkilä, Havlik & Schlobinski
(2015), Havlik, et al (2015), Dihé, et al (2013), Engelbach, et al (2014), Erlich, et al (2015),
Garcia-Aristizabal, et al (2015), Rosqvist, et al (2015), and Honkavuo, et al (2015).
Table 2: CRISMA reference applications and implemented simulation scenarios.
Reference application
Scenario type
Specific simulation scenario
Country
Nordic Winter Storm
Resource planning
Electricity outage in the far
north of Finland.
Finland
Coastal Submersion
Regional planning
Coastal submersion defence
for Charente Maritime region
France
Accidental Pollution
Desktop training
Accidental spillage from a
container at large city port
Israel
Earthquake and Forest
Fire
Regional planning
Earthquake and forest fire
application
Italy + Portugal
Resource Planning
Resource planning
Mass casualty incident
Germany
Resource Management
Training
Training assessment and
model validation
The decisions supported in the five CRISMA reference applications reflect their nature and
scope as well as particular decision-making needs by the respective end users. The
following examples illustrate the types of questions that can be answered through
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executing different reference applications built around the CRISMA Framework (Heikkilä,
Havlik, Schlobinski, 2015):
In the Nordic winter storm reference application:
Is there a need for evacuation? How to time it? Which areas should be
prioritised in evacuation?
What would be the necessary or optimal level of resources for the evacuation of
a given area?
What would be the best response strategy out of the predefined preparedness
plans?
In the Coastal submersion reference application:
What are the areas with the highest risk of flooding?
What would be the effect of various long-term measures (e.g., improving dykes)
on the flooding risk?
How effective is the evacuation and temporary sheltering of the endangered
population?
What would be the best long-term planning and investment strategy?
In the Accidental pollution reference application:
The application demonstrates the use of the CRISMA Framework for the decision-support
of mission commanders. The application shows the effect of the decisions taken by the
trainees. The main question to be answered is:
What would be the optimal way to use the limited number of emergency and
rescue resources available in the area?
And more specifically, the application gives support for trainees by helping them to
analyse, for example:
How much time is required for different operations? How much time is needed
for emergency and rescue resources to arrive at the scene?
How to take into account that the states of the simulated victims change over
time? How to make sure that the most badly poisoned victims get timely
treatment?
In the Earthquake and forest fire reference application:
What would be the expected damage on buildings due to a given earthquake?
What would be the expected number of casualties due to a given earthquake?
What would be the probabilities and effects of cascading events’ scenarios such
as a forest fire?
What would be the effects of different mitigation strategies?
In the Resource management training and resource planning reference application:
What would be the probable outcome of the “mass casualty incident” with
respect to the accident severity, geographic location and the tactics chosen by
the user?
Which resources should be allocated to which tasks to reach the best possible
outcome?
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In addition, the application enables the recording and assessment of first responders’
activities during an exercise.
The following sections 3.1 3.5 present the software components developed in CRISMA as
they have been implemented and validated in the five reference applications of CRISMA.
3.1. Decision support in the Nordic winter storm domain
A simulation case of the reference application for the Nordic winter storm domain
describes a crisis in the Northern Finland that lasts for 1-2 weeks due to snowstorms
occurring in the Barents Sea region resulting in damages on critical infrastructure and
related services. According to the scenario applied, low temperatures, heavy snowfall and
strong winds cause regional and cross-border problems for the communications, traffic,
power lines, heating, health services, water and waste water systems, etc.
The reference application for the Nordic winter storm domain has been designed to
support contingency planning. The main focus of the reference application is on simulating
the impacts of a large scale power outage. According to the simulation scenario, an
extreme winter storm causes an increase in electricity consumption within the affected
area. This will lead to electricity overload and consequently large-scale power outages will
take place. As a result, the area of Lapland receives only 20% of the normally available
capacity of electricity, and the authorities need to decide which areas should be prioritized.
The purpose of the application is accordingly to identify and deal with the most vulnerable
population in the simulated timeframe of 72 hours.
Table 3: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in reference application for the Nordic winter
storm domain.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Simulation Setup View
User Interaction
This BB enables the user to set
simulation parameters, such as
simulation step size and
scenario duration
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/238
Worldstate View
User Interaction
This BB is used to visualise and
manipulate the information
related to the CRISMA world
states and world state
transitions
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/146
Agent Oriented
Simulation Models
Integration
This BB serves for the
development of dynamic maps –
specific individual-based
simulation models composed of
interacting software agents
situated in some environment
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/72
Economic Impacts
Model
Models
This BB is used to provide
economical factors to decisions
between different actions to be
taken
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/43
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Name
Type
Use
Link
Economic Impacts
Analysis View
User Interaction
This BB is used to input the data
used in calculations, to initiate
the calculation processa and to
present the calculated results to
the end user, to be used to
support decisions related to
response tasks and their
priorities
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/144
VTT House Model
Models
This model calculates the
cooling gradient of the residental
building according to given
weather model (temperature,
wind) and the building
information (heating type,
insulation, building type)
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/147
Preparedness Plan
BB
User Interaction
This BB is a decision-support
mechanism, which helps the
decision-maker to take the
needed actions in case of
emergency according to plans
based on analysis of threats,
vulnerabilities and possible
emergency scenarios
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/20
Preparedness
Planning View
User Interaction
This BB is a web-based user
interface of the Preparedness
Plan BB, enabling the user to
create and maintain
preparedness plans
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/236
Preparedness Plan
Execution View
User Interaction
This BB enables the user to
select and execute predefined
preparedness plans
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/237
Evacuation Resources
Simulation Model
Resource
Management
Models
This model is used to calculate
the impact of the evacuation
resources allocated to mitigate
the situation
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/201
OOI World State
Repository BB
Infrastructure
This BB enables archiving,
querying and manipulation of
Objects of Interest (OOI) world
state data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/18
OOI Management
View
User Interaction
This BB enables to view and edit
the actual data available for
specific scenario or simulation
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/13
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform
for integration and management
of the information from different
sources, e.g. simulations,
indicators and the world state
model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Scenario Analysis and
Comparison View
User Interaction
This BB visualises Indicator and
Criteria data to the end user in
order to support the decisions
related to response tasks and
their priorities
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/159
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 21
More particularly, the application helps authorities in prioritizing the allocation of critical
resources that are in shortage. It enables the user to identify the areas which require
urgent actions like evacuation. In addition, the application helps to evaluate different
options from the economic point of view, such as, for example, the damage cost and the
cost of evacuation measures, to support decision-making.
The end users targeted by this application are different authorities and stakeholders, such
as rescue services, municipalities, Red Cross, and telecommunication service providers,
which utilise contingency planning. In addition, other possible end users of the application
include, for example, regional administrative agencies, transport agencies, and emergency
supply agencies.
The reference application for the Nordic winter storm domain makes use of the CRISMA
Framework Building Blocks and models listed in Table 3.
3.2. Decision support in the Coastal submersion domain
The reference application for the Coastal submersion domain is based on the Xynthia
storm surge event that occurred in February of 2010. Therefore, the simulation scenario
describes a coastal submersion generated by high wind velocity on the Atlantic coast
region of Charente-Maritime in France. According to the simulation scenario, many of the
public facilities and civil protection systems are severely affected due to the submersion.
There are dangers that the people living in the area can become isolated and many
communication channels can become disabled.
The reference application for the Coastal submersion domain comprises an application for
crisis preparedness planning, for evaluation of mitigation solutions, and for training of
teams involved in operational crisis response and management. Within the simulation
scenario, different events are tested to analyse their impacts under various circumstances
(e.g., summer or winter, day or night) and under different intensities (e.g., stronger winds
in combination with high tide levels). The purpose of the reference application is
accordingly testing the effects of different mitigation solutions and crisis management
decisions at different times.
The reference application for the Coastal submersion domain makes use of the CRISMA
Framework Building Blocks and models listed in Table 4.
Table 4: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Coastal
submersion domain.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform for
integration and management of the
information from different sources,
e.g. simulations, indicators and the
world state model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Data Integration
Integration
This BB is used to access
geospatial data of the various
world states of a CRISMA
Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/32
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 22
Name
Type
Use
Link
Worldstate View
User Interaction
This BB is used to visualise and
manipulate the information related
to the CRISMA world states and
world state transitions
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/146
GIS View Building
Block
User Interaction
This BB enables the visualisation
and manipulation of geospatial
data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/90
Simulation Model
Interaction View
User Interaction
This BB allows end users to
interact with the various simulation
models exposed by the Simulation
Model Integration BB
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/62
Simulation Model
Integration BB
Integration
This BB enables the integration of
several heterogeneous simulation
models in a standardized way to
participate in a CRISMA
Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/34
Multi Criteria
Analysis and
Decision Support
View
User Interaction
This BB allows performing a
ranking of different crisis
management scenarios with
respect to specific criteria
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/162
Coastal Submersion
Model
Models
This model is a 2D-model for
simulation of hydrodynamice
based on the open source
TELEMAC-MASCARET system
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/122
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Dikes Vulnerability
Model
Models
This model allows to calculate the
potential statistical impact on dikes
depending on their status
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/187
Time Dependent
Vulnerability Model
(TDV)
Models
This model enables the
assessment of time-dependent
damage occurring on elements at
risk, such as dikes
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/135
Evacuation Model for
Coastal Submersion
Models
This model consists of three
models developed by means of the
LSM2D software package for the
simulation of population
evacuation in case of a coastal
submersion in the region of
Charente-Maritime in France
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/123
Population Exposure
Model
Models
This model provides population
distribution for a selected date and
time
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/21
Publish Subscribe
Context Broker BB
Infrastructure
This BB is used to inform users
when specific events are recorded
in other components of a CRISMA
Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/48
3.3. Decision support in the Accidental pollution domain
The purpose of this reference application is training resource management by means of
the CRISMA Framework for the incident of a large accidental spill from a container in the
port next to a large city (the terrain around the city of Ashdod in Israel was used as the site
of the simulation scenario). According to the simulation scenario of the reference
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 23
application, the container is used for transporting liquid bromine (Br2). The resulting from
the incident plume affects the territory of the port and, depending on the meteorological
conditions, poses a threat to the population of up to 100,000 inhabitants in the city. The
simulation scenario refers to an incident affecting about 1000 persons, resulting in a few
hundred victims who suffer in different degrees of severity.
The reference application for the Accidental pollution provides commanders in
organizations responsible for tasks in the response phase with the opportunity to learn
about the impact of the decisions taken by them. The aim is to plan and test various
response alternatives using related tools and models, and observe the effect of the
decisions taken on the situation in the field. Such training exercises are designed to
improve decision-making capacities of the trainees. Through this, the potential ability of as
trainee to respond to unexpected events should be significantly improved. The end users
involved in validating the reference application were a local authority, port authority,
ministry of environmental protection, police forces, fire brigade, emergency medical
service, ministry of health, and toxicologists.
The reference application was developed in the following two stages:
1. The methodology was devised for the creation of models representing the
"damage" (e.g., casualties through the exposure to bromine), models
representing the "resources" (e.g., the behaviours of ambulances and hospitals),
models representing the behaviour of the plume (e.g., concentration levels,
movement, and decline rate), and models representing the interactions between
the "damaged objects" and the resources.
2. The actual models representing patients and ambulances and the interactions
between them were developed for the reference application.
The application demonstrates the usage of the CRISMA Framework for training incident
scene commanders for decisions to be made by them on incident scenes. The application
shows the effect of the decisions taken by the trainees.
Building blocks used in the reference application for the Accidental pollution domain are
listed in Table 5.
Table 5: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Accidental
pollution domain.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform
for integration and
management of the information
from different sources, e.g.
simulations, indicators and the
world state model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Publish Subscribe
Context Broker BB
Infrastructure
This BB is used to inform users
when specific events are
recorded in other components
of a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/48
OOI World State
Repository BB
Infrastructure
This BB enables archiving,
querying and manipulation of
Objects of Interest (OOI) world
state data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/18
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 24
Name
Type
Use
Link
Indicator Building
Block
Integration
This BB allows definition,
storage and evaluation of
simple algebraic models of
indicators in order to evaluate
consequences of decisions
made by CRISMA users during
a training session
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/28
Resource
Management Training
Dispatch and Monitor
View
User Interaction
This BB provides a trainee with
a high-level overview over the
resource management
simulation's world state
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/60
Resource
Management Training
Indicators and
Statistics View
User Interaction
This BB deals with the visual
presentation of statistics and
key indicators of a given world
state in order to provide a
quick overview of the situation
and to allow for comparison
between any two given world
states
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/61
Agent Oriented
Simulation Models
Integration
This BB serves for the
development of dynamic maps
– specific individual-based
simulation models composed
of interacting software agents
situated in some environment
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/72
GIS View Building
Block
User Interaction
This BB enables the
visualisation and manipulation
of geospatial data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/90
Resource
Management Tactical
Training BB
User Interaction
This BB enables a trainee to
learn emergency management
by assigning tasks to various
resources and analysing the
results in a virtual environment
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/15
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
User Interaction
This BB allows performing a
ranking of different crisis
management scenarios with
respect to specific criteria
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/162
UI Integration
Platform BB
User Interaction
This BB hosts and integrates
other User Interaction Building
Blocks
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/84
OOI Management
View
User Interaction
This BB enables to view and
edit the actual data available
for a specific scenario or
simulation
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/13
Resource
Management Training
Simulation Scenario
Setup View
User Interaction
This BB enables creation of
new resource management
simulations or modification of
the existing ones
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/63
Integrated Planning
View
User Interaction
This BB is a generic integrated
view for the configuration and
inspection of arbitrary crisis
management scenarios in
planning situations
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/163
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 25
Name
Type
Use
Link
Simulation Model
Integration BB
Integration
This BB enables the integration
of several heterogeneous
simulation models in a
standardized way to participate
in a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/34
Patients Model
Resource
Management
Models
The model governs the
movements and lifelines of the
OOIs of the Patient type as
well as their interactions with
ambulance vehicles and
hospitals
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/154
3.4. Decision support in the Earthquake and forest fire domains
Within the reference application for the Earthquake and forest fire domains of CRISMA, an
integrated application was built for the simulation of earthquakes and their physical impact
on buildings. In case of simulating a series of earthquakes, the cumulative damage done
on buildings and the related consequences in terms of the impact on buildings can be
evaluated by means of the Time-Dependent Vulnerability Model. The reference application
was complemented with models that allow to apply long-term and short term mitigation
strategies and to evaluate their effects. Moreover, the economic impact associated with
each simulation case is evaluated and multi-criteria analysis can be performed, allowing
for comparison and ranking of alternative decisions and solutions. Also, the cascading
events’ model was applied to evaluate a cascading events’ scenario, where a forest fire is
triggered by an earthquake.
Two main simulation scenarios demonstrate the capabilities of the reference application.
The first simulation scenario is mainly concerned with showing the effects of alternative
mitigation options aimed to reduce the potential impact of seismic events, including the “no
intervention” option as a baseline, and with the use of decision-support tools for this
purpose. The second simulation scenario is a Cascading Effects’ Scenario (CES) that
demonstrates the execution of the Cascading Effects’ Model in the CES that was
developed considering an earthquake as the main event triggering a forest fire.
Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Earthquake and forest fire
domains are listed in Table 6.
Table 6: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Earthquake
and forest fire domains.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform
for integration and management
of the information from different
sources, e.g. simulations,
indicators and the world state
model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Data Integration
Integration
This BB is used to access
geospatial data of the various
world states of a CRISMA
Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/32
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 26
Name
Type
Use
Link
Indicator Building
Block
Integration
This BB allows definition,
storage and evaluation of simple
algebraic models of indicators in
order to evaluate consequences
of decisions made by CRISMA
users during a training session
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/28
UI Integration Platform
BB
Integration
This BB hosts and integrates
other User Interaction Building
Blocks
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/84
Worldstate View
User Interaction
This BB is used to visualise and
manipulate the information
related to the CRISMA world
states and world state
transitions
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/146
GIS View Building
Block
User Interaction
This BB enables the
visualisation and manipulation of
geospatial data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/90
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
User Interaction
This BB enables the
visualisation of cascade events’
probabilities and
parameterisation of hazard
models
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/165
Simulation Model
Interaction View
User Interaction
This BB allows end users to
interact with the various
simulation models exposed by
the Simulation Model Integration
BB
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/62
Scenario Analysis and
Comparison View
User Interaction
This BB visualises Indicator and
Criteria data to the end user in
order to support the decisions
related to response tasks and
their priorities
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/159
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
User Interaction
This BB allows performing a
ranking of different crisis
management scenarios with
respect to specific criteria
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/162
Simulation Model
Integration BB
Integration
This BB enables the integration
of several heterogeneous
simulation models in a
standardized way to participate
in a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/34
Publish Subscribe
Context Broker BB
Infrastructure
This BB is used to inform users
when specific events are
recorded in other components of
a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/48
Building Impact Model
Models
This BB is a model for the
assessment of expected
damage on building classes due
to earthquakes
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/136
Earthquake Casualty
Model
Models
This BB is a model for the
assessment of expected number
of the injured and deaths due to
an earthquake
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/138
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 27
Name
Type
Use
Link
Population Exposure
Model
Models
This BB is a model for the
calculation of human exposure
based on distributing population
in spatial and temporal
dimensions
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/21
Time Dependent
Vulnerability Model
(TDV)
Models
This model enables the
assessment of time-dependent
damage occurring on elements
at risk, such as dikes.
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/135
Road Network
Vulnerability Model
(RNV)
Models
This BB is a model for the
assessment of probability of
road link interruption due to
earthquakes
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/137
Cascading Effects
Model
Models
This BB is a model that
calculates the probability of
occurrence of cascading events
scenarios, given an initial
triggering event
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/149
Forest Fire Behaviour
Model
Models
This BB is a model for the
spatial simulation of forest fire
behaviour over complex
topography and wind flows in
areas with heterogeneous
vegetation cover
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/148
3.5. Decision support in the Resource management training and
resource planning domains
The purpose of the reference applications for the Resource management training and
resource planning domains is the provision of a crisis management modelling tool for
conducting an emergency exercise in resource management and performing related
emergency resource allocation planning. The group of end users targeted by both
reference applications consists of crisis managers and first responders at different levels.
In order to prepare for operations with a high number of the injured, crisis managers need
to assure that first responders are capable of a rapid and reliable handling of emergency
situations. This capability is usually trained in exercises. Furthermore, resource
management and planning needs to be aligned accordingly. Both aspects are targeted by
the two reference applications. The Building Blocks used in the reference application for
the Resource management training domain are listed in Table 7. In the same way, the
Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Resource planning domain are
listed in Table 8.
The crisis management modelling tool implemented for the reference applications
accordingly supports exercise and training sessions as well as planning and resource
management. This approach enables crisis managers to examine incidents from different
perspectives. Even though two different reference applications have been developed, both
are connected and build upon each other.
Both reference applications aim at supporting the activities of first responders and crisis
managers with a particular emphasis on capacity planning. The latter includes the
estimation of the necessary amount of required capabilities and the analysis of available
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 28
capabilities among all involved organisations, to identify and eliminate capability gaps. The
reference applications enable to simulate different response patterns for better resource
management in order to evaluate response plans and improve and modify trainings as well
as to try out different options for resource and capacity planning.
In addition, the reference applications enable the recording and assessment of the
activities by first responders during an exercise for performance measurement and their
compliance with mission objectives.
Table 7: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Resource
management training domain.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform
for integration and management
of the information from different
sources, e.g. simulations,
indicators and the world state
model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Scenario Analysis
and Comparison
View
User Interaction
This BB visualises Indicator and
Criteria data to the end user in
order to support the decisions
related to response tasks and
their priorities
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/159
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
User Interaction
This BB allows performing a
ranking of different crisis
management scenarios with
respect to specific criteria
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/162
Agent Oriented
Simulation Models
Integration
This BB serves for the
development of dynamic maps –
specific individual-based
simulation models composed of
interacting software agents
situated in some environment
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/72
OOI World State
Repository BB
Infrastructure
This BB enables archiving,
querying and manipulation of
Objects of Interest (OOI) world
state data
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/18
OOI Management
View
User Interaction
This BB enables to view and edit
the actual data available for a
specific scenario or simulation
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/13
Indicator Building
Block
Integration
This BB allows definition,
storage and evaluation of simple
algebraic models of indicators in
order to evaluate consequences
of decisions made by CRISMA
users during a training session
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/28
Publish Subscribe
Context Broker BB
Infrastructure
This BB is used to inform users
when specific events are
recorded in other components of
a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/48
UI Integration
Platform BB
User Interaction
This BB hosts and integrates
other User Interaction Building
Blocks
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/84
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 29
Name
Type
Use
Link
Resource Allocation
Tactic Model
Resource
Allocation Models
This model replicates the
decision-making process of
crisis managers in resource
management planning
applications
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/205
Resource
Management
Training Simulation
Scenario
Parameterisation
View
User Interaction
This BB lets users parameterise
a previously defined planning
template in order to run resource
management simulations for
specific scenarios
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/242
Table 8: CRISMA Framework Building Blocks used in the reference application for the Resource
planning domain.
Name
Type
Use
Link
Integrated Crisis
Management
Middleware BB
Infrastructure
This BB provides the platform for
integration and management of the
information from different sources,
e.g. simulations, indicators and the
world state model
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/5
Data Integration
Integration
This BB is used to access
geospatial data of the various world
states of a CRISMA Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/32
Publish Subscribe
Context Broker BB
Infrastructure
This BB is used to inform users
when specific events are recorded
in other components of a CRISMA
Application
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/48
Indicator Building
Block
Integration
This BB allows definition, storage
and evaluation of simple algebraic
models of indicators in order to
evaluate consequences of
decisions made by CRISMA users
during a training session
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/28
Integrated Planning
View
User Interaction
This BB is a generic integrated view
for the configuration and inspection
of arbitrary crisis management
scenarios in planning situations
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/163
UI Mashup Platform
Integration
This BB acts as a runtime
environment for Mashable
Composite UI Modules (widgets)
and provides inter-widget
communication, persistent perwidget configuration as well as
proxy capabilities
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/56
UI Integration
Platform BB
Integration
This BB hosts and integrates other
User Interaction Building Blocks
https://crismacat.ait.ac.at/node/84
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 30
4. Conclusions
This document introduces the generic CRISMA Framework from the decision-support
perspective. It describes the software components, which have been developed and
validated in the CRISMA project, and gives an overview of the the underlying decisionsupport concepts.
Instead of developing individual crisis management solutions from scratch, a generic
software framework – CRISMA Framework – has been developed in CRISMA. The
CRISMA Framework is composed of a range of different software components, models
and supporting tools that can be combined in various ways to form different simulation
applications for different kinds of crisis domains.
With the CRISMA Framework, crisis managers and other decision-makers are offered
possibilities to combine models, data and expertise originating in many different sources
for creating a wider perception of crisis scenarios and better awareness of alternative
preparedness, response and mitigation actions. Moreover, CRISMA scenario comparison
and visualisation tools can be utilised to improve cooperation between many organisations
as well as communication with other stakeholders and the public.
The feasibility of the Framework, the developed software components, and the underlying
decision-support concepts have been tested and validated in five different simulation
scenarios of crisis management. The corresponding simulation scenarios have been
implemented in the respective CRISMA reference applications developed for the following
domains:
Nordic winter storm domain;
Coastal submersion domain;
Accidental pollution domain;
Earthquake and forest fire domains;
Resource management training and resource planning domains.
As a result of the testing and validation in five different domains, we can conclude that
different crisis management applications built around the CRISMA Framework can support
numerous types of decisions. In general, decision-support functionalities of the CRISMA
Framework enable the end users to analyse and compare different simulation scenarios in
order to identify sound and efficient mitigation strategies, which can either be included in
preparedness plans or used to train decision-makers and other stakeholders. In particular,
we established that the five reference applications that were used for experimentation and
testing in CRISMA help decision-makers in the following ways:
by allowing experimentation with different crisis management strategies and
decisions;
by supporting decision-makers in long-term planning;
by enabling simulation of natural disasters in a multi-risk framework including
cascading effects;
by facilitating resource management and planning.
The generic CRISMA Framework is based on the methodology for simulation-based
decision support worked out in the project. This decision-support methodology with the
related software emphasise the fact that criteria and ranking functions represent opinions
rather than facts. Both the criteria and ranking functions are highly situation-dependent
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 31
and different stakeholders are likely to disagree on definitions and relative importance of
different criteria. The end users are therefore encouraged to define several sets of criteria
and ranking functions and compare the outcomes of applying them in different alternative
simulation scenarios.
For a more comprehensive description of the results of the CRISMA project, crisis
management scenarios, and the software Framework, please see Heikkilä, Havlik &
Schlobinski (2015).
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 32
5. References
1.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O.D., Carreño, M.L., Barbat, A.H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S.,
Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., Welle, T. 2013. Framing vulnerability, risk
and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural hazards, 67(2), 193-211.
2.
Carson, J.S. 2005. Introduction to modeling and simulation. In Proceedings of the 2005 Winter
Simulation Conference. Washington, DC: IEEE Computer Society.
3.
Cockburn, A. 2000. Writing Effective Use Cases. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
4.
Cohn, M. 2010. User Stories Applied: For Agile Software Development. Reading, MA:
Addison-Wesley.
5.
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APPENDIX ( ) Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework
The complete list of CRISMA Building Blocks is adapted from the CRISMA public
deliverable D35.2 (2015).
The original summary of Building Blocks gives a brief overview on the Building Blocks and
Crisis Management Models that constitute the integrated CRISMA Framework. To a large
extent it is based on the description of Building Block Software Components in the
CRISMA Catalogue (2015).
Figure 13 gives an overview on all Infrastructure- (red), Integration- (orange), User
Interaction Building Blocks (blue) and Crisis Management Models (green) of the CRISMA
Framework.
Object of Interest
Worldstate
Repository
Population
Exposure
Model
OOI Management
View
Resource
Management
Model
Resource Management
Training Simulation
Scenario Setup View
Worldstate
View
UI Integration
Platform
Simulation Model
Integration
Integrated
Planning View
Agent-Oriented
Simulation Models
Data Integration
Simulation Model
Interaction View
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
Preparedness
Plan
CRISMA
Framework
UI Mashup
Platform
Indicator
Building Block
Resource Management
Training Indicators
and Statistic View
GIS View
Resource
Management
Tactical Training View
Integrated
Crisis Management
Middleware
Time Dependent
Vulnerability Model
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
Economic Impacts
Analysis View
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
Resource Management
Training Indicators
and Statistic View
Economic Impacts
Model
Publish/Subscribe
Context Broker
Scenario Analysis
and Comparison
View
Cascading Effects
Model
Social Vulnerability
Figure 13: Overview on Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework.
http://www.crismaproject.eu
Resource Management
Training Dispatch
and Monitor View
1.9.2015 | 36
Infrastructure Building Blocks
Infrastructure Building Blocks are working in the background and build the core of the
CRISMA Framework. Figure 14 gives an overview on the Infrastructure Building Blocks of
the CRISMA Framework that have been identified, described and implemented.
Integrated
Crisis Management
Middleware
Object of Interest
World State
Repository
Pub/Sub
Context Broker
Figure 14: Infrastructure Building Blocks.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb?field_bb_type_tid=1
Integrated Crisis Management Middleware
The ICMM is a generic distributed resource-oriented Control and Communication
Information Management System. The ICMM provides a real time publish-subscribe
Control and Communication Information bus that connects CRISMA Federates in a
uniform simple and transparent way. It exposes several RPC based HTTP APIs that follow
basic REST principles. According to the concept of Federations adopted by the CRISMA
Framework Architecture (D32.2, 2014) data may be exchanged directly between CRISMA
Federates (peer to peer) while the exchange of Control and Communication Information
(information about simulation cases, control flows, events, etc.) must be performed using
the APIs provided by the ICMM. The ICMM can also be seen as a Control and
Communication Information (CCIM) based command and control layer that enforces
interoperability within a CRISMA Federation. The ICMM is a central Component in the
CRISMA Framework Architecture and thus and integral part of each CRISMA Federation
and CRISMA Application, respectively.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Integrated-Crisis-Management-Middleware-BB
Object of Interest Worldstate Repository
The Object of Interest Worldstate Repository (OOI-WSR) is an Infrastructure Building
Block and enables archiving, querying and manipulation of OOI Worldstate data. This
module serves as a Repository service for OOI data that can be consumed or manipulated
by other interaction or Functional Building Blocks and Resource Management Models.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/OOI%20World%20State%20Repository%20BB
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Publish/Subscribe Context Broker
The Publish/Subscribe (Pub/Sub) Context Broker is an Infrastructure Building Block and a
cross-over between an event broker which accepts events and dispatches them to
subscribers and an access service providing the information on the current state of the
“world”. It simplifies the design of CRISMA Applications by minimizing the need for direct
interaction between CRISMA Federates (and Building Blocks, respectively) and for hard
coding such interactions.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Publish%20Subscribe%20Context%20Broker%20BB
Integration Building Blocks
Integration Building Blocks are used for the integration of data and Simulation Models into
a CRISMA Application. Figure 15 gives an overview on the Integration Building Blocks of
the CRISMA Framework that have been identified, described and implemented.
Indicator
Building Block
Data Integration
Agent-Oriented
Simulation Models
Simulation Model
Integration
UI Integration
Platform
UI Mashup
Platform
Figure 15: Integration Building Blocks.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb?field_bb_type_tid=2
Agent-Oriented Simulation Models
The Agent-Oriented Simulation Models Building Block serves for the development of
dynamic maps and specific (individual-based) Simulation Models composed of interacting
software agents situated in some environment. This Building Block comprises a collection
of generic agents and interaction templates for dynamic map construction, for describing,
defining and specifying points, areas and layers of interest. It provides furthermore a
dynamic-map-based user interface for interaction and visualization.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Agent-Oriented-Simulation-Models
http://www.crismaproject.eu
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Data Integration
The Data Integration Building Block is an Infrastructure Building Block that provides
components that can be used to easily serve data in a CRISMA-compliant (OGC open
standard compatible, see OGC 08-126 (2009)) way so that other Building Blocks may use
them for further processing like viewing or editing. That way data can be made accessible
for CRISMA components. The technique to make data available is to use standardized
OGC services like Web Feature Service (WFS) and Web Map Service (WMS).
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Data-Integration
Indicators Building Block
The Indicators Building Block is an Integration Building Block that allows definition, storage
and evaluation of “simple” algebraic models in order to evaluate consequences of
decisions made by CRISMA users during a training session. In this context “simple” means
that there is no large number crunching needed. The Indicators Building Blocks supports
the execution of ICC Functions which is a central concept of the Conceptual Business
Logic of CRISMA.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Indicator-Building-Block
Simulation Model Integration
The Simulation Model Integration Building Block is an Integration Building Block and
provides components that can be used to integrate Simulation Models in a CRISMA
Application. Due to the heterogeneity of existing Simulation Models CRISMA has to ensure
that they can be integrated in a standardized way and ultimately become a CRISMA
Federate.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Simulation-Model-Integration-BB
UI Mashup Platform
The UI Mashup Platform is an Integration Building Block that acts as a runtime
environment for Mashable Composite UI Modules (Widgets) and provides inter-Widget
communication, persistent per-Widget configuration as well as proxy capabilities. The
platform allows the user (in this case the person configuring a CRISMA Application) to
create a HTML5-based front-end by selecting certain user components (Widgets and
operations) that can be combined into a mashup. The user components are provided by a
catalogue, and can be installed and connected (“wired”) into a mashup using a graphical
editor.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/UI-Mashup-Platform
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UI Integration Platform
The UI Integration Platform is an Integration Building Block that is able to host Composite
UI Modules. Composite UI Modules are User Interaction Building Blocks that are realised
as HTML5 and JavaScript Widgets. The UI Integration Platform Building Block constitutes
the Runtime Environment of the Composite UI Modules as they – by their nature – cannot
be used as stand-alone application.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/UI-Integration-Platform-BB
User Interaction Building Blocks
User Interaction Building Blocks constitute the graphical user interface of a CRISMA
Application. Figure 16 gives an overview on the Integration Building Blocks of the CRISMA
Framework that have been identified, described and implemented.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb?field_bb_type_tid=3
Worldstate
View
Multi Criteria Analysis
and Decision Support
View
Scenario Analysis
and Comparison
View
Cascade Events
Configuration and
Interaction View
GIS View
Integrated Planning
View
Resource Management
Tactical Training
View
Resource Management
Training Dispatch
and Monitor View
Resource Management
Training Indicators
and Statistic View
Resource Management
Training Simulation
Scenario Setup View
Economic Impacts
Analysis View
OOI Management
View
Preparedness Plan
Simulation Model
Interaction View
Figure 16: User Interaction Building Blocks.
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Cascade Events Configuration and Interaction View
The Cascade Events Configuration and Interaction View is a User Interaction Building
Block that allows a user to configure and run a Cascade Effects Scenario. The user can
select a triggering event (for example, an earthquake) and may either specify the
characterisation of the event (Simulation Control Parameter) and thus initiate a new
Simulation Model Run for this particular event, or select (if available) the output of a past
event or an event already simulated.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Cascade-Events-Configuration-and-Interaction-View
Economic Impacts Analysis View
This Building Block is an economic evaluation tool to support crisis management and to be
used in the preparedness phase for planning and training purposes. The main objective of
an economic evaluation in CRISMA is to present the economic impacts arising from crises
(ex post performance) and to assess different mitigation proposals and their costs/benefits
(ex ante planning).
Thereby, the Economic Impacts Analysis View Building Block combines the functionalities
of the former Economic Impact Configuration and Results Building Blocks into one unified
User Interaction Building Block.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Economic%20impacts%20analysis%20view
GIS View
The GIS View Building Block is a User Interaction Building Block that enables the
visualisation and manipulation of geo-spatial data. It can handle data delivered by the Data
Integration Building Block (see section 0) but also other well-known formats. Furthermore,
it visualises geospatial data from multiple sources simultaneously to allow a comparison of
different scenarios (GIS layers). Moreover, the GIS View is not only able to show static
information like background maps (e.g. road transport infrastructure, topographic maps)
but also dynamic content which is updated according to a progressing crisis management
simulation.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/GIS-View-Building-Block
Integrated Planning View
The Integrated Planning View Building Block is a generic integrated view for the
configuration and inspection of arbitrary crisis management scenarios in planning
situations. The CRISMA planning use cases (most use cases of CRISMA) intend to realise
functionalities that are related to opening Worldstates, changing them and storing them.
Further running simulations, inspecting them and comparing results is addressed in all of
them.
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1.9.2015 | 41
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Integrated-Planning-View
Multi Criteria Analysis and Decision Support View
The Multi Criteria Analysis View and Decision Support View is a User Interaction Building
Block that allows to perform a ranking of different Crisis Management Scenarios with
respect to specific Criteria. Together with the Scenario Analysis and Comparison View it
realises the concepts for Crisis Management Simulation Analysis as defined by the
CRISMA Framework Architecture and the Model for Decision-Making Assessment.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Multi-Criteria-Analysis-and-Decision-Support-View
OOI Management View
The Object of Interest (OOI) Management View is a User Interaction Building Block that
enables the user to view and edit the actual data available for a specific scenario or
simulation. It enables the system administrator to detect the OOI data type’s properties
based on the OOI Information Models definitions. It also enables the user to monitor and
edit a specific snapshot context (time, user, and workflow).
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/OOI%20Management%20View
Preparedness Plan
The Preparedness Plan Building Block is a decision-support mechanism, which helps the
decision-maker to take the needed actions in case of emergency according to plans based
on analysis of threats, vulnerabilities and possible emergency scenarios. Different phases
of emergency require different kinds of actions. For example, in the early warning phase
the actions can be reservations of resources according to existing contracts. If the situation
further evolves to an actual emergency, the proposed actions may be e.g. dispatching of
the response units or taking actions needed for evacuation of the affected people.
Proposed actions for a certain situation may be provided, for example, as check lists or
communication plans.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Preparedness-Plan-BB
Resource Management Tactical Training View
The RMTT Building Block simplifies the task of designing the Tactical Training applications
for the control room operator and on-scene commanders. It enables a Trainee to learn
emergency management by assigning tasks to various resources and analysing the results
in a virtual environment. Implementing the RMTT involves the integration of UI views from
both CRISMA UI Views Building Blocks and NICE Situator UI views; therefore it has to act
also as UI Integration Platform.
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 42
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Resource-Management-Tactical-Training-BB
Resource Management Training Dispatch and Monitor View
The Resource Management Training Dispatch and Monitor View is a User Interaction
Building Block that is realised as a combination of several Mashable Composite UI
Modules. It provides a high-level overview over the simulation's Worldstate. Its purpose is
to display one Worldstate at a time and allow the user to distribute resources (ambulances,
etc.) among different areas where the crisis plays out. Trainee operators are presented
with the number of resources available at the current time in the resource management
simulation, and also to some degree about the incidents and OOI states (depending on
whether the administrator chose not to hide these details from trainees).
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Resource-Management-Training-Dispatch-and-Monitor-View
Resource Management Training Indicators and Statistics View
The Resource Management Training Indicators and Statistics View Building Block is a
User Interaction Building Block that is realised as a set of Mashable Composite UI
Modules. It focuses on the visual presentation of statistics and key Indicators of a given
Worldstate in order to provide a quick overview of the situation and to allow for comparison
between any two given Worldstates. The component performs no complex calculations by
itself. It only takes data either directly from the Worldstate, or from other Building Blocks
providing any such Indicators unless they are not already part of the Worldstate (e.g. the
Indicators Building Block, see section 0).
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Resource-Management-Training-Indicators-and-Statistics-View
Resource Management Training Simulation Scenario Setup View
The Resource Management Training Simulation Scenario Setup View is a User Interaction
Building Block that is realised by several Mashable Composite UI Modules. It allows the
creation of new resource management simulations or modification of existing ones. It
allows furthermore the user to create incidents and scenes as well as to create and
manage objects of interest (OOI) instances.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/
Resource-Management-Training-Simulation-Scenario-Setup-View/components
Scenario Analysis and Comparison View
The Scenario Analysis and Comparison View is able to visualise Indicator and Criteria
data in a way that users are able to analyse and compare different Simulated Crisis
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 43
Management Scenarios and ultimately come to a decision which fits the simulation
objective best for a specific Simulation Case. Indicators and Criteria are part of the key
concept for performing uniform analysis and decision-support within a CRISMA hazard
domain. CRISMA Indicators as well as Criteria are synthetical data that is computed for
every CRISMA Worldstate using rules that suite the hazard domain. The computation is
done by the Indicators Building Block and results in a vector of scalar values.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Scenario-Analysis-and-Comparison-View
Simulation Model Interaction View
The Simulation Model Interaction Widget is a User Interaction Building Block that is
realised as generic, composable and configurable Composite UI Module. It enables end
users to interact with the various Simulation Models exposed by a Simulation Model
Integration Building Block.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Simulation-Model-Interaction-View
Worldstate View
The Worldstate View Building Block is a set of generic Widgets (Mashable Composite UI
Modules) that allow visualising Control and Communication Information (CCIM) related to
Worldstates and Worldstate Transitions. Thus, it operates mainly on common metainformation about the world rather than the real data of the world (Worldstate Data Slots).
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/bb/Worldstate-View
Crisis Management Models
Figure 17 gives an overview on the Crisis Management Models of the CRISMA Framework
that have been identified, described and implemented.
Economic Impacts
Model
Cascading Effects
Model
Population Exposure
Model
Time Dependent
Vulnerability Model
Figure 17: Crisis Management Models.
http://www.crismaproject.eu
Resource
Management
Model
1.9.2015 | 44
Cascading Effects Model
The Cascading Effect Model for dynamic scenario assessment calculates the probability of
attainment of cascading events scenarios, given an initial triggering event, or estimates
consequence paths given the occurrence of selected scenarios and considering alternative
mitigation actions. Within the model, a set of scenarios and a Transition matrix are defined
as the two fundamental pieces of information required to assess the effects of possible
Cascading Effects.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Cascading%20Effects%20Model
Economic Impacts Model
The Economic Impacts Model is a model for presenting economic impacts arising from
crises (ex post performance) and assessing different mitigation proposals and their
costs/benefits (ex ante planning). It is intended to be used in the preparedness phase of
crisis management to support long-term strategic decision-making. The model uses data
on alternative scenarios (e.g. base line scenario and crisis scenario after implementing a
mitigation measure) in order to make the economic assessment. The assessment is done
by determining economic losses of a crisis and costs and benefits linked to different
mitigation investments.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Economic%20impacts%20model
Population Exposure Model
The Population Exposure Model is a model for distributing population in spatial and
temporal dimensions. It uses temporal and spatial proxies in order to disaggregate the
population from administrative units to spatio-temporal grids. The outcome is used in
CRISMA as basis for time-dependent exposure assessment and in further steps for
evacuation and casualty modelling. Population data is usually available from census as
totals per inhomogeneous spatial reference unit. For modelling population exposure, data
is required that is independent from enumeration and administrative areas.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Population%20exposure%20model
Resource Management Model
The Resource Management Models developed in the CRISMA project are build upon the
OOI concept with different context dependent behavioural patterns for different crisis
domains. Thus, there is no overall generic and all purpose Resource (OOI) Management
Model, but a set of distinct models for different types of resources (e.g. ambulances,
patients) and different situations. However, such domain and crisis specific Resource
Management Models can be implemented on basis of the general Agent-Oriented
Simulation Models Building Block.
http://www.crismaproject.eu
1.9.2015 | 45
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/Resource%20Management%20Model
Time Dependent Vulnerability Model
The Time Dependent Vulnerability (TDV) Model is a model for the assessment of timedependent damage on elements at risk. The TDV Model allows performing consistent
computation of time dependent damage by the use of suitably updated vulnerability
functions. The TDV Model is “domain-independent” in the sense that the logic scheme is
the same for different hazard domains (e.g. earthquake, flood, extreme weather …), but for
using the model in order to compute time dependent losses (in terms of damages in the
established damage scale) there is the need to suitably feed the model for each hazarddomain.
https://crisma-cat.ait.ac.at/model/
Time%20Dependent%20Vulnerability%20model%20%28TDV%29
http://www.crismaproject.eu