Download SARS: The First Global Crisis of the 21st Century Globalization is a

LE-20-0715
Dion Wiggins, Bob M. Hayward
Letter From the Editor
19 May 2003
SARS: The First Global Crisis of the 21st Century
Globalization is a major contributing factor to the spread of severe acute respiratory
syndrome, but global cooperation is the key to its eradication.
The old saying that “when China sneezes, the rest of Asia catches cold” is proving to be more true today
than ever before. For several years, China has been the engine of growth for Asia as well as many other
parts of the world. Despite the global economic gloom, many Asian economies have been experiencing
solid economic growth. Most have rebounded well from the late-1990s’ economic crisis that gripped the
region. China has been the main cause of that resurgence in the economy, because it has taken in
investments and imports to fuel its extraordinary growth. The region has become dependent on Chinese
economic growth, and confident that it would continue. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) outbreak has shaken this confidence to the core.
The outbreak of SARS is having a dramatic and immediate impact on many Asian economies. It has
caused the total collapse of any economic activity that involves the movement of people or people
gathering together. The short-term impact is enough to seriously damage some economies, such as
Hong Kong and Singapore, while the longer-term implications — even for the giant and fast-growing
economy of China — may cause many global enterprises to look at their Chinese investments and
sourcing strategies in a new light. The eventual economic toll is hard to assess as the SARS virus
continues its destructive path. However, economists from global bodies such as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, as well as from governments in Asia and leading investment
banks, agree that the damage is immense and growing daily.
Many outside Asia view SARS as little more than media hype — one publication even labeled SARS as
“severe acute media syndrome” or “SAMS.” To date, only two countries outside of Asia have had SARSrelated deaths, Canada with 23 deaths and South Africa with one death. Many other countries have had
cases of infected citizens, but with little dramatic effect on their economies or public attitudes.
During the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, many people outside the United States suffered from a “not on my
doorstep syndrome.” It was a distant problem that, while horrific and terrifying, was so far and distant as
to not have any significant, immediate local impact. The same can be said about the SARS epidemic
sweeping Asia — for many, it’s a long way away. The only noticeable changes for those in North America
and Europe are some travel provider policy changes and changes to general travel plans to avoid
infected areas. Although it has affected some businesses with interests in Asia, day-to-day life continues
as normal.
The war in Iraq, tensions in the Middle East, the emerging crisis with North Korea and the gloomy global
economy are dominating media attention in much of the world, relegating SARS to a minor story.
However, SARS is a global issue. It’s the first global crisis of the 21st century — and it already has cost
the global economy more than $30 billion. In those areas directly affected, SARS has caused the forced
quarantine of thousands of people, restrictions on travel, record levels of company bankruptcies,
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invasions of privacy to a degree that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago, and more than
500 deaths.
SARS is different from other infectious diseases and viruses that plague the world. Malaria only occurs in
regions with the right climatic conditions and it is spread by a known agent — the mosquito. Effective
vaccinations and treatment can prevent malarial infection. Tuberculosis is rampant in many parts of the
world, despite effective vaccines, but it is only contagious through close contact and has a relatively low
death rate among those infected.
SARS is quite deadly. The mortality rate is higher than previously thought, more than 50 percent for older
people. Combined with the lack of treatment or vaccination, the spread of the disease is a frightening
prospect. The “unknowns” make SARS such a concern — where did it come from, how is it spread, how
can it be quickly identified, how can it be treated and, of course, how can we vaccinate against it or cure
those infected with the virus?
The global community cannot “accept and live with the risk” of situations where the active spread of
SARS is still occurring. Those situations are so dangerous that all possible measures must be put in
place to address and control the situation (for example, quarantines, and the full financial and legal
resources of government). The world only has a narrow window of opportunity in which to control SARS
completely.
If this virus is going to be defeated, it needs to be the focus of global efforts, firm actions, unprecedented
levels of cooperation and collaboration as well as the patience and understanding of the global
community. Just because SARS has yet to enter a country, doesn’t mean it won’t — one person entering
a country can infect hundreds of others. With modern travel, a person can be in Asia one day, and be in
the United States or Europe the next. Even in countries that had cases of SARS and have controlled or
managed to avoid spreading the virus cannot simply assume that it will not re-emerge — vigilance is
critical.
The major threat from SARS now is the ongoing local infection in China, combined with the constant
threat of new infections spreading to other countries by people who have visited infected areas. We also
still do not know enough about the disease to rule out some other potential threats, such as carriers (that
is, healthy-but-infected people unknowingly transmitting the disease).
Unlike the panic that gripped the world in 1918 with the “Spanish flu” pandemic, today we have far more
knowledge about viruses and how they spread, as well as modern medical research techniques and an
impressive array of medications. We are using technology to keep everyone informed about SARS, to
exchange the latest news on treatment and to track the spread of the disease. Our best resources are
working to find a vaccine and a treatment for the virus on a global basis, using the Internet and special
Web sites to ensure that the world is informed of progress. Much has already been achieved in a
remarkably short time — a faster and more efficient response than we saw 20 years ago, when human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) first appeared.
There is no room for complacency. The lengthy period of illness and recovery for SARS (a month or
more) is putting a high level of strain on affected public health systems. In some places, a significant
number of infected patients and deaths have occurred within the health worker ranks. Some health
systems are barely coping. Health workers in affected countries are to SARS what firefighters were to
Sept. 11 — heroes prepared to risk their own lives in the name of public good.
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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SARS has already affected many industries, economies and regions around the world, both directly and
indirectly. This Special Report explores the impact that SARS will have on governments, enterprises and
individuals (see “SARS: A Global War Against an Unknown Enemy”).
Dion Wiggins
Editor in Chief
Special Report
[email protected]
Bob M. Hayward
Contributing Editor
Special Report
[email protected]
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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