Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Is that a driverless truck alongside you? ROI will push autonomous vehicles into industrial areas more quickly, but they are coming – eventually – to the open road By Richard E. Crandall and Samuel K. Formby A Autonomous vehicles are coming to a highway near you. Although much of the attention to these unmanned, or driverless, vehicles, has focused on autonomous cars, the consensus among industry veterans is that driverless trucks will become commercially available first. The growing belief is that the question is not “if?” but “when?” What is driving this increasing interest in driverless vehicles? Is it just the intense interest on the part of technology leaders who want to prove they can do it and who want to push it into the public’s interest? Or is there a business/ economic reason that will begin to exert a pull to bring this disruptive technology into the mainstream of business activities? The answer, of course, is all of the above. Publications and blogs abound with articles about driverless vehicles. Most of them describe the technical features of the vehicles and the tests being performed to prove the capabilities of the concept. Germany, the Netherlands, Nevada and other sites are testing autonomous trucks, and a quick search of the internet can yield a number of fascinating videos to demonstrate the progress being made. Driverless driving defined In May 2013, the U.S. Department of Transportation released its policy on automated vehicles. In it, the regulators provided the following guidelines for the types of autonomous vehicles we discuss in this article. Limited self-driving automation (level three): Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. The drivers rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor changes in those conditions that require transition back to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but the transition time is supposed to be sufficiently comfortable. Full self-driving automation (level four): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide a destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles. At present, all of the tests on open highways or specially designed test tracks have drivers in the trucks in case of emergency – a level three classification. It will be several years, even a decade, before you will see driverless trucks on the open highway in the level four classification. 26 ISE Magazine | www.iise.org/ISEmagazine Although not driverless, the Daimler Inspiration Truck, licensed to operate in Nevada, lets the driver cede control of safetycritical functions in certain conditions. June 2016 | ISE Magazine 27 Is that a driverless truck alongside you? FIGURE 11 FIGURE The benefits of robot drivers Driverless vehicles have the potential to save money and lives – whether in restricted industrial areas or the open road. Warehouses (AGVs) Mines, ports and other restricted areas Open highways Reduced wages High High Low Reduced fuel costs Low Medium High Increased utilization Low Medium High Reduced accidents Low Low High This article addresses two primary questions: • Is there an economic net benefit to the deployment of autonomous trucks? • What is a likely timeline for this to happen? Each of these questions trigger a number of additional questions or concerns that promise to be significant before this technology is fully implemented. Economic considerations Driverless trucks will be used in several environments, including warehouses and distribution centers, closely controlled areas such as mines and ports, and, finally, the open highway. Already, industry has numerous successful applications of driverless trucks in warehouses and mines where such vehicles move freely throughout their designated areas. However, these limited examples are not widespread throughout the world. The presence of driverless trucks on the open highway is still in the test stage. From an economic standpoint, the obvious conclusion is that driverless trucks will eliminate the need for drivers, resulting in savings from reduced wages. This is true for the limited applications in mines and ports. However, on the open road, driver wages represent 30 percent to 40 percent of a long distance hauler’s operating costs. And the early applications will not eliminate the driver, although they will make the driver’s duties less demanding and reduce accidents and lower driver turnover. Figure 1 summarizes expected benefits from driverless trucks over the next few years. In warehouse operations, the traditional automated guided vehicle (AGV), which now operates by following a magnetic strip in the floor, will be replaced by AGVs that can roam throughout the warehouse. Guided by sensors, computers and internal logic capabilities, such vehicles will plot courses, avoid obstacles and safely interact with employees. This application, detailed by Travis Hessman in “Self-Driving Robots: Material Handling May Never Be the Same Again” in New Equipment Digest, will eliminate human operators, reducing labor costs. That will be the primary benefit, with minor benefits from other factors shown in Figure 1. 28 ISE Magazine | www.iise.org/ISEmagazine In restricted areas such as mines and dock operations, the primary benefit will be reduced labor costs. However, added benefits will come from reduced fuel costs and increased vehicle utilization, both of which will provide significant savings. The work environment in such places already is oriented toward safety practices; therefore, it is not expected that accident reduction will be a major benefit. If drivers aren’t eliminated in open highway driving, then what are the benefits? They include fuel savings, increased vehicle utilization and reduced accidents, each with additional secondary benefits. Fuel savings. One of the most promising applications of driverless vehicles on the open highway is called platooning, where two or three trucks travel in tandem, one after the other, in closely spaced intervals. The lead truck has a driver and the following trucks use vehicle-to-vehicle communications to track closely behind the lead truck. This configuration reduces drag, just like what happens when racecars line up behind each other while wheeling around NASCAR tracks like Talladega, Alabama. The result can be as much as 5 percent fuel savings for the lead truck and 10 percent for the trailing trucks, according to research conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This will be a significant savings because fuel costs can average 30 percent to 40 percent of the operating cost. The lower fuel consumption also has the secondary benefits of reducing carbon dioxide emissions harmful to the environment. The trucks behind the lead truck also may have drivers who could relieve the driver in the lead truck to reduce fatigue and the time needed for rest stops. If the trailing trucks do not have drivers, there would be the added savings of reduced driver wages. Increased vehicle utilization. While there are limits to the number of hours that drivers can work during a day, there would be no limits on the running time for autonomous trucks. Consequently, trucks could operate a greater percentage of time. Over time, this could reduce the investment required for trucks, even considering the initial added investment necessary to add the sensors, cameras and other communication equipment to optimize the trucks for autonomous operation. FIGURE 21 FIGURE Driving on, driverless Driverless vehicles will replace their driven counterparts quicker in industrial applications, gradually moving onto the open road. Application areas 2015-2025 2025-2035 Beyond 2035 Warehouses Implementations should increase rapidly as successes show adequate return on investment. Continued increased use of AGVs and other robotic devices in warehouse operations Heavy use of robotics should become standard practice in most operations. Mines, ports and other restricted areas Early success such as Rio Tinto will spawn additional implementations and some union resistance. Use of autonomous vehicles should become widely used as problems are resolved. Automated robots and autonomous vehicles should rapidly become standard practice among most operations. Successful testing in the previous decade will allow limited use in selected areas of open highway. Successes and correction of problems should open up expanded implementation opportunities. Autonomous vehicles on Tests will be conducted in increasingly challenging environments; added open highways hardware and software will become available. Increased utilization of vehicles also will result in more goods moved per day. This will reduce the overall time required to move goods, making for faster deliveries to retailers and consumers. Reduced accidents. In 2012, 330,000 large trucks were involved in crashes that killed 4,000 people, most of them in passenger cars, according to the article “Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck” on Medium, a public blog site. About 90 percent of the accidents resulted from driver error. No doubt driver fatigue or inattention caused some of the accidents. For example, drivers with untreated sleep apnea have a fivefold increased likelihood of a severe crash, the Material Handling and Logistics staff reported in “Truck Drivers are at Risk of Crashes Due to Untreated Sleep Apnea.” Automotive experts predict that autonomous trucks, equipped with the latest safety equipment such as automatic emergency brakes, lane protection and blind spot sensors, largely will eliminate the effect of driver error and reduce accidents. Reduced accidents will lead to lower insurance costs. In addition to the reduced damage to vehicles, a tangible savings, there will be reduced liability for loss of life, an intangible savings but perhaps the most important benefit of all. One study published on the Quantum Run website, “Prediction – The Job-Eating, Economy-Boosting, Social Impact of Driverless Vehicles: Future of Transportation P5,” estimates the savings from the reduction of vehicle crashes at more than $500 billion annually in the U.S. alone. Frost & Sullivan estimate the cost to equip trucks with the needed autonomous vehicle systems will run around $30,000 per vehicle. This includes sensors, telematics upgrades, human-to-machine interface connections, driveline enhancements and software algorithms. Additional charges will be necessary for information technology needs centered on cybersecurity and safety. Fleet owners will need to plan carefully how to install the added equipment as they move toward autonomous vehicle operation over the coming years. They especially will need to plan the rate at which they will replace existing trucks or add new ones to meet the increased volume of business. Expected timeline of implementation How long will it take? Figure 2 looks at possibilities, not certainties. Warehouse operations should proceed on a trajectory based on expected return on investment. In warehouses, there likely won’t be major barriers from public acceptance or governmental regulation, at least in the United States. In mining and port operations, the principal metric driving adoption will be an acceptable return on investment, although there may be union opposition in some ports. The continued pressure to reduce lead-times in supply chains likely will push port operators to increase their level of automation. This will reduce the time required to unload ships by as much as 30 percent, moving the containers along their journey to the ultimate consumer much faster. The West Coast ports of the United States are increasing their use of automation to maintain their competitiveness with East Coast ports as the newly widened Panama Canal becomes operational, a move that is expected to shift some shipments that would have unloaded on the West Coast to the East Coast. Implementing autonomous vehicles on the open highway will require a longer time. While companies may be convinced that attractive returns on investment are possible, two major barriers loom large: public acceptance and governmental regulation, neither of which changes quickly. It is likely that many of the safety features will be incorporated in trucks and private vehicles during the next decade. It still will take a long period of demonstrated success to convince federal regulators that autonomous vehicles are acceptable alongside private automobiles. June 2016 | ISE Magazine 29 Is that a driverless truck alongside you? Rio Tinto uses Komatsu 930E 290-ton Autonomous Haulage System trucks at its mining operations in Australia. The company has dubbed it the largest civilian robotics project on Earth. Photos copyright Rio Tinto There are at least two other subjects that complicate the into cities with more complex driving conditions? These discussion of autonomous vehicles – driver shortages and the questions have both economic and timing components that need for added infrastructure. Some report that the long-haul need to be studied. trucking industry has more jobs than drivers, making autonomous vehicles a potential solution. Others are concerned that Some successful implementations autonomous vehicle implementations will cause a serious un- Where have autonomous vehicles been successfully impleemployment problem that will require extensive retraining to mented? Hessman, in describing the John Deere plant in Horireintegrate the displaced drivcon, Wisconsin, reports that ers into other meaningful ema fully self-driving, autonoployment. mous robotic vehicle built Because of the long-term by Clearpath can transport Corporations and researchers have been investigating, using implications, it appears that up to 3,000 pounds of goods and testing autonomous, driverless vehicles for quite a while. collaboration among conthrough congested plant and Some examples on video include: cerned parties will be neceswarehouse areas without the sary to achieve satisfactory need for drivers, supervision • An ABC News Australia story on automated mining outcomes. or guidance infrastructure. vehicles at a Rio Tinto mine: http://ab.co/1LhL6wc Another question concerns Rio Tinto has captured the • This video portrays the use of autonomous vehicles at the the need for added infrastrucattention of the world with its port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands: http://bit.ly/211mNtt ture in the highways. Will it fleet of autonomous vehicles be necessary to embed sensors that work in their Australia • This video shows a 2012 Volvo test in Barcelona, Spain, in the highway, in intersecmines, where they have more where the lead driver provided the steering function for five tions, in entrances, exits and than 50 trucks already opervehicles in a “road train”: http://bit.ly/1Se994b ating and have placed orders other areas for autonomous for a total of 150 trucks with vehicles to use as guides? Should there be dedicated lanes just for autonomous vehicles Komatsu. They report that the autonomous trucks outperform to keep them separate from other traffic? Will there be a need its manned fleet by almost 12 percent, according to a story last for transfer stations, much like today’s rest stops, where drivers year for ABC News. can take over from autonomous vehicles and move the truck The port of Rotterdam in The Netherlands is a heavily Driverless videos 30 ISE Magazine | www.iise.org/ISEmagazine automated operation that includes the use of driverless trucks to unload 10,000 containers a day from the megaships that enter one of the largest ports in the world. The Harbor Container Terminal Altenwerder in Germany is almost completely automated with respect to container handling, using 84 driverless vehicles guided by 19,000 transponders installed in the ground to transport containers between the wharf and the storage areas, Matthias Heutger and Markus Kückelhaus reported for DHL Trend Research. Heading out to the open highway Autonomous trucks are being tested on open highways, with European truck manufacturers leading the way. Nevada is one of the first states to grant a license for an autonomous commercial truck to operate on an open public highway in the United States. Daimler Trucks North America received this license and has unveiled the Freightliner Inspiration Truck, which is designed to reduce accidents, improve fuel consumption, cut highway congestion and have less of an environmental impact than other trucks. The truck is not driverless. Its highway pilot technology links together cameras and radar with lane stability, collision avoidance, speed control, braking, steering and other monitoring systems. This combination creates a level three autonomous vehicle operating system that enables the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. The autonomous vehicle system is responsible for maintaining legal speed, staying in the selected lane, keeping a safe braking distance from other vehicles and slowing or stopping the vehicle based on traffic and road conditions. The vehicle monitors changes in conditions that require transition back to driver control when necessary in highway settings. The driver is in control of the vehicle for exiting the highway, on local roads and in docking for making deliveries, according to “First Licensed Autonomous Freight Truck Hits the Road” last year in Insurance Journal. One of the first successfully tested convoy systems was done in 2012 by Volvo in Barcelona, Spain. The lead driver provided the steering function for the four vehicles that flowed behind. Daimler also is testing the use of autonomous trucks on the autobahn in Germany. Your robot drivers are coming The initial successes and industry enthusiasm strongly suggest that the use of autonomous vehicles is coming, although not quickly. However, that is true of many disruptive technologies. In his classic book The Diffusion of Innovations, Everett M. Rogers suggested that it sometimes takes several decades before a new technology is fully implemented. In the case of autonomous vehicles, it appears logical that the first successful applications Clearpath’s Otto 1500 doesn’t need drivers, supervision or guidance infrastructure to haul up to 3,000 pounds of goods through congested plant and warehouse areas. will be in restricted areas such as warehouses, mines and ports. Implementation in open highway applications will take longer, not only because of the need for added technology, but also because of the need to overcome public resistance and complex regulation processes. Success will depend on the effective collaboration among developers, consumers and governments. Industrial and systems engineers and others charged with developing feasibility studies and, later, implementation plans, have a fascinating challenge ahead of them in determining when and how to go ahead with what promises to be an inevitable progression along the highway of business, and social, milestones. Richard E. Crandall is professor emeritus in the Walker College of Business at Appalachian State University. He has CFPIM, CIRM and CSCP certifications from the Association for Operations Management (APICS). Prior to joining ASU, Crandall worked as an industrial engineer and in management positions for manufacturing and service companies. He is co-author of Vanishing Boundaries, How Integrating Manufacturing and Services Creates Customer Value and Principles of Supply Chain Management, Second Edition. He writes the Relevant Research column for APICS magazine. Samuel K. Formby is an assistant professor in the Walker College of Business at Appalachian State University. Prior to entering academia, he spent 28 years in industry with several large international companies. He has extensive experience in managing process improvement projects. His major areas of research interest are in human performance, project management and operations and supply chain management. He holds a PMP certification from the Project Management Institute and is a senior member of IEEE. June 2016 | ISE Magazine 31 Copyright of Industrial Engineer: IE is the property of Institute of Industrial Engineers and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use.