Download Is that a driverless truck alongside you?

Is that a driverless
truck alongside you?
ROI will push autonomous vehicles into industrial areas more
quickly, but they are coming – eventually – to the open road
By Richard E. Crandall and Samuel K. Formby
A
Autonomous vehicles are coming to a highway near you. Although much of the attention to these unmanned, or driverless,
vehicles, has focused on autonomous cars, the consensus among
industry veterans is that driverless trucks will become commercially available first. The growing belief is that the question is not
“if?” but “when?”
What is driving this increasing interest in driverless vehicles? Is it just the
intense interest on the part of technology leaders who want to prove they can
do it and who want to push it into the public’s interest? Or is there a business/
economic reason that will begin to exert a pull to bring this disruptive technology into the mainstream of business activities? The answer, of course, is all
of the above.
Publications and blogs abound with articles about driverless vehicles. Most
of them describe the technical features of the vehicles and the tests being performed to prove the capabilities of the concept. Germany, the Netherlands,
Nevada and other sites are testing autonomous trucks, and a quick search of the
internet can yield a number of fascinating videos to demonstrate the progress
being made.
Driverless driving defined
In May 2013, the U.S. Department of Transportation released its policy on
automated vehicles. In it, the regulators provided the following guidelines for
the types of autonomous vehicles we discuss in this article.
Limited self-driving automation (level three): Vehicles at this level of
automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions
under certain traffic or environmental conditions. The drivers rely heavily on
the vehicle to monitor changes in those conditions that require transition back
to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control,
but the transition time is supposed to be sufficiently comfortable.
Full self-driving automation (level four): The vehicle is designed to
perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions
for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide a destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control at any
time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.
At present, all of the tests on open highways or specially designed test tracks
have drivers in the trucks in case of emergency – a level three classification. It
will be several years, even a decade, before you will see driverless trucks on the
open highway in the level four classification.
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Although not
driverless, the
Daimler Inspiration
Truck, licensed to
operate in Nevada,
lets the driver cede
control of safetycritical functions in
certain conditions.
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Is that a driverless truck alongside you?
FIGURE 11
FIGURE
The benefits of robot drivers
Driverless vehicles have the potential to save money and lives – whether in restricted industrial areas or the open road.
Warehouses (AGVs)
Mines, ports and other restricted areas
Open highways
Reduced wages
High
High
Low
Reduced fuel costs
Low
Medium
High
Increased utilization
Low
Medium
High
Reduced accidents
Low
Low
High
This article addresses two primary questions:
• Is there an economic net benefit to the deployment of
autonomous trucks?
• What is a likely timeline for this to happen?
Each of these questions trigger a number of additional questions or concerns that promise to be significant before this
technology is fully implemented.
Economic considerations
Driverless trucks will be used in several environments, including warehouses and distribution centers, closely controlled areas
such as mines and ports, and, finally, the open highway.
Already, industry has numerous successful applications of
driverless trucks in warehouses and mines where such vehicles
move freely throughout their designated areas. However, these
limited examples are not widespread throughout the world.
The presence of driverless trucks on the open highway is still
in the test stage.
From an economic standpoint, the obvious conclusion is
that driverless trucks will eliminate the need for drivers, resulting in savings from reduced wages. This is true for the
limited applications in mines and ports. However, on the open
road, driver wages represent 30 percent to 40 percent of a long
distance hauler’s operating costs. And the early applications
will not eliminate the driver, although they will make the
driver’s duties less demanding and reduce accidents and lower
driver turnover.
Figure 1 summarizes expected benefits from driverless
trucks over the next few years. In warehouse operations, the
traditional automated guided vehicle (AGV), which now operates by following a magnetic strip in the floor, will be replaced
by AGVs that can roam throughout the warehouse. Guided
by sensors, computers and internal logic capabilities, such vehicles will plot courses, avoid obstacles and safely interact with
employees. This application, detailed by Travis Hessman in
“Self-Driving Robots: Material Handling May Never Be the
Same Again” in New Equipment Digest, will eliminate human
operators, reducing labor costs. That will be the primary benefit, with minor benefits from other factors shown in Figure 1.
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In restricted areas such as mines and dock operations, the
primary benefit will be reduced labor costs. However, added
benefits will come from reduced fuel costs and increased vehicle utilization, both of which will provide significant savings.
The work environment in such places already is oriented toward safety practices; therefore, it is not expected that accident
reduction will be a major benefit.
If drivers aren’t eliminated in open highway driving, then
what are the benefits? They include fuel savings, increased vehicle utilization and reduced accidents, each with additional
secondary benefits.
Fuel savings. One of the most promising applications of
driverless vehicles on the open highway is called platooning,
where two or three trucks travel in tandem, one after the
other, in closely spaced intervals. The lead truck has a driver
and the following trucks use vehicle-to-vehicle communications to track closely behind the lead truck. This configuration
reduces drag, just like what happens when racecars line up
behind each other while wheeling around NASCAR tracks
like Talladega, Alabama.
The result can be as much as 5 percent fuel savings for the
lead truck and 10 percent for the trailing trucks, according to
research conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This will be a significant savings because fuel costs can
average 30 percent to 40 percent of the operating cost. The
lower fuel consumption also has the secondary benefits of reducing carbon dioxide emissions harmful to the environment.
The trucks behind the lead truck also may have drivers who
could relieve the driver in the lead truck to reduce fatigue and
the time needed for rest stops. If the trailing trucks do not have
drivers, there would be the added savings of reduced driver
wages.
Increased vehicle utilization. While there are limits
to the number of hours that drivers can work during a day,
there would be no limits on the running time for autonomous trucks. Consequently, trucks could operate a greater
percentage of time. Over time, this could reduce the investment required for trucks, even considering the initial added
investment necessary to add the sensors, cameras and other
communication equipment to optimize the trucks for autonomous operation.
FIGURE 21
FIGURE
Driving on, driverless
Driverless vehicles will replace their driven counterparts quicker in industrial applications, gradually moving onto the open road.
Application areas
2015-2025
2025-2035
Beyond 2035
Warehouses
Implementations should increase
rapidly as successes show adequate
return on investment.
Continued increased use of AGVs
and other robotic devices in warehouse operations
Heavy use of robotics should
become standard practice in most
operations.
Mines, ports and other
restricted areas
Early success such as Rio Tinto will
spawn additional implementations and
some union resistance.
Use of autonomous vehicles should
become widely used as problems are
resolved.
Automated robots and autonomous
vehicles should rapidly become
standard practice among most
operations.
Successful testing in the previous
decade will allow limited use in
selected areas of open highway.
Successes and correction
of problems should open up
expanded implementation
opportunities.
Autonomous vehicles on Tests will be conducted in increasingly
challenging environments; added
open highways
hardware and software will become
available.
Increased utilization of vehicles also will result in more
goods moved per day. This will reduce the overall time required to move goods, making for faster deliveries to retailers
and consumers.
Reduced accidents. In 2012, 330,000 large trucks were
involved in crashes that killed 4,000 people, most of them in
passenger cars, according to the article “Self-Driving Trucks
Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck” on Medium, a public blog site. About 90 percent of the accidents
resulted from driver error.
No doubt driver fatigue or inattention caused some of the
accidents. For example, drivers with untreated sleep apnea have
a fivefold increased likelihood of a severe crash, the Material
Handling and Logistics staff reported in “Truck Drivers are at
Risk of Crashes Due to Untreated Sleep Apnea.” Automotive
experts predict that autonomous trucks, equipped with the latest safety equipment such as automatic emergency brakes, lane
protection and blind spot sensors, largely will eliminate the
effect of driver error and reduce accidents.
Reduced accidents will lead to lower insurance costs. In addition to the reduced damage to vehicles, a tangible savings,
there will be reduced liability for loss of life, an intangible savings but perhaps the most important benefit of all. One study
published on the Quantum Run website, “Prediction – The
Job-Eating, Economy-Boosting, Social Impact of Driverless
Vehicles: Future of Transportation P5,” estimates the savings
from the reduction of vehicle crashes at more than $500 billion
annually in the U.S. alone.
Frost & Sullivan estimate the cost to equip trucks with the
needed autonomous vehicle systems will run around $30,000
per vehicle. This includes sensors, telematics upgrades, human-to-machine interface connections, driveline enhancements and software algorithms. Additional charges will be
necessary for information technology needs centered on cybersecurity and safety.
Fleet owners will need to plan carefully how to install the
added equipment as they move toward autonomous vehicle
operation over the coming years. They especially will need to
plan the rate at which they will replace existing trucks or add
new ones to meet the increased volume of business.
Expected timeline of implementation
How long will it take? Figure 2 looks at possibilities, not certainties. Warehouse operations should proceed on a trajectory
based on expected return on investment. In warehouses, there
likely won’t be major barriers from public acceptance or governmental regulation, at least in the United States.
In mining and port operations, the principal metric driving
adoption will be an acceptable return on investment, although
there may be union opposition in some ports. The continued
pressure to reduce lead-times in supply chains likely will push
port operators to increase their level of automation. This will
reduce the time required to unload ships by as much as 30
percent, moving the containers along their journey to the ultimate consumer much faster.
The West Coast ports of the United States are increasing
their use of automation to maintain their competitiveness with
East Coast ports as the newly widened Panama Canal becomes
operational, a move that is expected to shift some shipments
that would have unloaded on the West Coast to the East Coast.
Implementing autonomous vehicles on the open highway
will require a longer time. While companies may be convinced that attractive returns on investment are possible, two
major barriers loom large: public acceptance and governmental regulation, neither of which changes quickly.
It is likely that many of the safety features will be incorporated in trucks and private vehicles during the next decade. It
still will take a long period of demonstrated success to convince federal regulators that autonomous vehicles are acceptable alongside private automobiles.
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Is that a driverless truck alongside you?
Rio Tinto uses Komatsu
930E 290-ton Autonomous
Haulage System trucks at
its mining operations in
Australia. The company has
dubbed it the largest civilian
robotics project on Earth.
Photos copyright Rio Tinto
There are at least two other subjects that complicate the into cities with more complex driving conditions? These
discussion of autonomous vehicles – driver shortages and the questions have both economic and timing components that
need for added infrastructure. Some report that the long-haul need to be studied.
trucking industry has more jobs than drivers, making autonomous vehicles a potential solution. Others are concerned that Some successful implementations
autonomous vehicle implementations will cause a serious un- Where have autonomous vehicles been successfully impleemployment problem that will require extensive retraining to mented? Hessman, in describing the John Deere plant in Horireintegrate the displaced drivcon, Wisconsin, reports that
ers into other meaningful ema fully self-driving, autonoployment.
mous robotic vehicle built
Because of the long-term
by Clearpath can transport
Corporations and researchers have been investigating, using
implications, it appears that
up to 3,000 pounds of goods
and testing autonomous, driverless vehicles for quite a while.
collaboration among conthrough congested plant and
Some
examples
on
video
include:
cerned parties will be neceswarehouse areas without the
sary to achieve satisfactory
need for drivers, supervision
• An ABC News Australia story on automated mining
outcomes.
or guidance infrastructure.
vehicles at a Rio Tinto mine: http://ab.co/1LhL6wc
Another question concerns
Rio Tinto has captured the
•
This
video
portrays
the
use
of
autonomous
vehicles
at
the
the need for added infrastrucattention of the world with its
port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands: http://bit.ly/211mNtt
ture in the highways. Will it
fleet of autonomous vehicles
be necessary to embed sensors
that work in their Australia
• This video shows a 2012 Volvo test in Barcelona, Spain,
in the highway, in intersecmines, where they have more
where the lead driver provided the steering function for five
tions, in entrances, exits and
than 50 trucks already opervehicles in a “road train”: http://bit.ly/1Se994b
ating and have placed orders
other areas for autonomous
for a total of 150 trucks with
vehicles to use as guides?
Should there be dedicated lanes just for autonomous vehicles Komatsu. They report that the autonomous trucks outperform
to keep them separate from other traffic? Will there be a need its manned fleet by almost 12 percent, according to a story last
for transfer stations, much like today’s rest stops, where drivers year for ABC News.
can take over from autonomous vehicles and move the truck
The port of Rotterdam in The Netherlands is a heavily
Driverless videos
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automated operation that includes the use of driverless trucks
to unload 10,000 containers a day from the megaships that
enter one of the largest ports in the world. The Harbor Container Terminal Altenwerder in Germany is almost completely
automated with respect to container handling, using 84 driverless vehicles guided by 19,000 transponders installed in the
ground to transport containers between the wharf and the
storage areas, Matthias Heutger and Markus Kückelhaus reported for DHL Trend Research.
Heading out to the open highway
Autonomous trucks are being tested on open highways, with
European truck manufacturers leading the way.
Nevada is one of the first states to grant a license for an
autonomous commercial truck to operate on an open public
highway in the United States. Daimler Trucks North America
received this license and has unveiled the Freightliner Inspiration Truck, which is designed to reduce accidents, improve
fuel consumption, cut highway congestion and have less of an
environmental impact than other trucks.
The truck is not driverless. Its highway pilot technology
links together cameras and radar with lane stability, collision
avoidance, speed control, braking, steering and other monitoring systems. This combination creates a level three autonomous vehicle operating system that enables the driver to cede
full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic
or environmental conditions.
The autonomous vehicle system is responsible for maintaining legal speed, staying in the selected lane, keeping a safe
braking distance from other vehicles and slowing or stopping
the vehicle based on traffic and road conditions. The vehicle
monitors changes in conditions that require transition back to
driver control when necessary in highway settings. The driver
is in control of the vehicle for exiting the highway, on local
roads and in docking for making deliveries, according to “First
Licensed Autonomous Freight Truck Hits the Road” last year
in Insurance Journal.
One of the first successfully tested convoy systems was done
in 2012 by Volvo in Barcelona, Spain. The lead driver provided the steering function for the four vehicles that flowed
behind. Daimler also is testing the use of autonomous trucks
on the autobahn in Germany.
Your robot drivers are coming
The initial successes and industry enthusiasm strongly suggest
that the use of autonomous vehicles is coming, although not
quickly.
However, that is true of many disruptive technologies. In
his classic book The Diffusion of Innovations, Everett M. Rogers
suggested that it sometimes takes several decades before a new
technology is fully implemented. In the case of autonomous
vehicles, it appears logical that the first successful applications
Clearpath’s Otto 1500
doesn’t need drivers,
supervision or guidance
infrastructure to haul up
to 3,000 pounds of goods
through congested plant
and warehouse areas.
will be in restricted areas such as warehouses, mines and ports.
Implementation in open highway applications will take longer, not only because of the need for added technology, but
also because of the need to overcome public resistance and
complex regulation processes. Success will depend on the effective collaboration among developers, consumers and governments.
Industrial and systems engineers and others charged with
developing feasibility studies and, later, implementation plans,
have a fascinating challenge ahead of them in determining
when and how to go ahead with what promises to be an inevitable progression along the highway of business, and social,
milestones. 
Richard E. Crandall is professor emeritus in the Walker College of
Business at Appalachian State University. He has CFPIM, CIRM
and CSCP certifications from the Association for Operations Management (APICS). Prior to joining ASU, Crandall worked as an industrial engineer and in management positions for manufacturing and service
companies. He is co-author of Vanishing Boundaries, How Integrating Manufacturing and Services Creates Customer Value
and Principles of Supply Chain Management, Second Edition.
He writes the Relevant Research column for APICS magazine.
Samuel K. Formby is an assistant professor in the Walker College of
Business at Appalachian State University. Prior to entering academia,
he spent 28 years in industry with several large international companies. He has extensive experience in managing process improvement
projects. His major areas of research interest are in human performance,
project management and operations and supply chain management. He
holds a PMP certification from the Project Management Institute and
is a senior member of IEEE.
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