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International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 26 No. 2 2014 ß The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edt010 Advance Access publication 13 June 2013 RESEARCH NOTE New Attempts to Reduce Overreporting of Voter Turnout and Their Effects Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Introduction Information on voter turnout is often used to draw conclusions on the state of democracy and democratic representation and is thus a crucial measure when studying electoral behavior in liberal democracies. Thus, turnout is an important variable in electoral surveys. However, electoral researchers are often confronted with the problem of ‘‘overreporting’’: The proportion of respondents who report that they voted is higher than the actual turnout in the election (e.g. Traugott & Katosh, 1979). In many countries, the only possible way to gather knowledge on electoral participation is by relying on reported turnout, as validated turnout is simply not accessible. The challenge is therefore to improve the survey questions to reduce potential sources of error in reporting turnout. In this article, we focus on the problem of misreporting. First, we test different new question formats capturing both memory failure and social desirability bias. Second, we analyze the impact a reduction of overreporting has on followup questions. Thus, we look at possible spillover effects. As the individual probability for a nonvoter to overreport turnout is higher in countries with high turnout (Karp & Brockington, 2005), for our tests we choose a country featuring this characteristic, namely Austria. Austria has been known for its comparatively high turnout rates, which were >90% until the mid-1980s but declined in the 1990s as in many other countries (Franklin, 2004). All correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Eva Zeglovits, Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna, Rathausstr. 19/1/9, 1010 Vienna, Austria. E-mail: [email protected] RESEARCH NOTE 225 The Challenge: Finding a More Valid Question for Voter Turnout Our aim is to obtain a more valid question for reporting turnout in surveys. This is necessary, since we know, for instance, that overreporting is not distributed equally across the electorate: Overreporting correlates with individual characteristics (e.g. Bernstein, Chadha, & Montjoy, 2001; Cassel, 2003; Hill & Hurley, 1984; Presser & Traugott, 1992) and contextual variables (e.g. Karp & Brockington, 2005); moreover, the impact of individual characteristics is sensitive to context as well (Gòrecki, 2011). Conclusions drawn from the analyses of self-reported turnout are thus biased. Scholars have identified a number of causes for these deviations in reported turnout in surveys (Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010): Errors that are related to sampling, such as noncoverage or survey nonresponse (Traugott & Katosh, 1979); effects of pre-election interviews (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987); measurement or reporting accuracy errors, such as memory errors or unintentional misreporting (Belli, Moore, & VanHoewyk, 2006; Belli, Traugott, Young, & McGonagle, 1999; Stockè, 2007; Stockè & Stark, 2007); and, finally, intentional misreporting owing to social desirability (Bernstein et al., 2001; Silver, Anderson, & Abramson, 1986; Stockè & Stark, 2007). In this article, we focus on these latter two aspects, memory failure and social desirability bias, as they might not be independent from each other: Respondents might choose to remember their past behavior in a more socially desirable way (Abelson, Loftus, & Greenwald 1992). There have been several attempts to reduce the misreporting problem: (1) Introducing new ways of wording questions; (2) diversifying response options; and (3) using indirect ways of asking.1 As a result, most electoral studies do not just simply and directly ask for turnout in the previous elections, but connect the question with some stimulus meant to reduce misreporting. For instance, the European Social Survey (round 5) uses the statement ‘‘Some people don’t vote nowadays for one reason or another,’’ while the American National Election Study (ANES) asks ‘‘In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they were not registered, they were sick, or they just didn’t have the time.’’ However, findings suggest that this does not reduce overreporting compared with the simple and direct question on turnout (Abelson et al., 1992). Belli et al. (1999) and Belli et al. (2006) developed additional instruments to simultaneously reduce intentional false answers as well as memory failure. They changed the stimulus by including a long explanatory statement to assist respondents in remembering the election of interest and by diversifying the response options to report nonvoting, listing different face-saving answers. Importantly, both measures reduced overreporting compared with the standard question in the ANES. We extend these findings and explore whether this latest attempt (Belli et al., 2006) reduces overreporting in other contexts as well. This seems all the more important, as this instrument has been tested successfully in the US context but failed in Israel (Waismel-Manor & Sarid, 2011). Additionally, we develop and test a new form of diversification of response options. This new form tries to capture the ‘‘likelihood’’ of See, for example, the item count technique (Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010). 1 226 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH turnout after the election by listing memory-failure options. It provides response options that allow respondents to say that they simply cannot remember. Overreporting is sensitive to context (Karp & Brockington, 2005). In countries where turnout is high, reported turnout is also high. On the one hand, for the single individual, it might be more difficult to admit nonvoting, on the other hand, respondents might have been more likely to have thought about voting resulting in higher proportion of misremembering. Thus, we select a county with high levels of turnout, where the risk of overreporting for every nonvoter is high, namely Austria. As validated turnout data are not available in Austria, testing reported turnout is a main challenge. However, it becomes all the more important, as the improvement of survey questions is the only possibility to obtain more valid turnout responses. Thus, we follow Holbrook and Krosnick (2010, 2013) and rely on indirect evidence in testing these new attempts: We assume that lower levels of reported turnout in general and in comparison with the actual turnout in particular can be interpreted as a reduction of overreporting.2 Providing respondents with a number of response options where they can express more easily both their memory failure and their ‘‘unsocial’’ behavior might also have an impact on follow-up questions. Questions that make respondents think about their past behavior can shift responses focusing on future behavior. The content of earlier questions gives access to information and behavior (e.g. possibilities to admit nonvoting) that will then affect the following questions (e.g. Sudman, Bradburn, & Schwarz, 1996). These latter responses might be ‘‘a function of the questions presented earlier in a survey’’ (Kaplan, Luchman, & Mock, 2013). Indeed, Presser (1990) found that the possibility to report socially desirable behavior in the past reduces the need to present oneself as a good citizen when talking about the most recent election. Therefore, if new question forms help respondents admit that they did not vote in the previous election, this might increase the probability that they also admit that they will not vote in a future election. For the design of pre-election surveys, where the focus is on gathering the most probable turnout in the upcoming elections, this will be of great importance. Thus, we look at possible spillover—or sequencing—effects on other questions (Transue, Lee, & Aldrich, 2009) which, to our knowledge, has not yet been researched in the field of turnout question. Development and Comparison of Question Wording Testing Different Turnout Questions To test our different question versions, we set up a survey experiment testing three different treatments. The experiment ran in January 2011, which is >2 years after the most recent federal election took place in Austria. Memory failure is generally known to increase with time (Saris and Gallhofer, 2007), and time delays are said to increase instances of overreporting and add to memory failures in the turnout question 2 Self-reported turnout is known to consist mainly of voters and overreporters, while underreporting is a minor problem (e.g. Traugott & Katosh, 1979; Abelson, Loftus, & Greewald, 1992; Belli, Traugott, Young, & McGonagle, 1999; Belli, Moore, & VanHoewyk, 2006; Selb & Munzert, 2013). This is why we interpret the share of self-reported voters as the sum of true voters and overreporters. RESEARCH NOTE 227 (Abelson et al., 1992; Belli et al., 1999; Stockè, 2007; Waismel-Manor & Sarid 2011). To minimize memory failures, we made sure people were thinking of the correct election. We added an explanatory statement for all treatment groups that introduced the topic and reminded respondents of the election in 2008 by emphasizing first the political actors who were involved then, and second, by pointing to the surprising early collapse of the coalition. Cognitive testing3 confirmed that with this introduction respondents remembered the requested election. Introduction: ‘‘The following question deals with the federal elections that took place in September 2008, after the grand coalition of Gusenbauer and Molterer collapsed with the words ‘It’s enough’, and that resulted in Werner Faymann being chancellor.’’4 Treatment A included the standard question version of most election studies, and thus formed our control group: Treatment A: Introduction plus ‘‘In this election a lot of people could not vote or chose not to vote for good reasons. What about you? Did you vote or not?’’ In Treatment B, we used the approach developed by Belli et al. (2006) with a response scale including four possible answers, three of them offering response options to report nonvoting of which two included face-saving options. Although minor changes were necessary in the question wording, we kept the response options identical: Treatment B: Introduction plus ‘‘In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they were sick, did not have the time, or were just not interested. Which of the following statements best describes you? [READ ALOUD] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. I did not vote in the federal election in Sept 2008. I thought about voting this time but didn’t. I usually vote but didn’t this time. I am sure I voted in the federal election in Sept 2008. [DO NOT READ ALOUD; VOLUNTEERED] I voted by absentee ballot.’’ Meanwhile, Treatment C included a new array of response options tackling in particular memory failure. We derived the idea from the propensity to turnout, which is usually asked in pre-election surveys, and measures the likelihood of electoral participation in the upcoming elections. For Treatment C, we asked on a 4-point scale whether the respondent was sure that she voted. Thus, the response options offer 3 Cognitive testing describes a set of techniques that is used to gain insight in the process of responding to a survey question, covering the stages of comprehension, recall, decision, and choosing a response option (Willis, 2005). We conducted 20 cognitive interviews in 2011; 10 respondents were assigned to the split in which the turnout question was asked. One person was not eligible to vote in 2008 and thus did not answer the question. 4 In this article, we present the English translations of the questions. All questions were asked in German, which has the side effect that this article contributes to enlarge the applicability of questions to a nonEnglish speaking country. The German versions are available on request. 228 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH memory failure and face-saving options. Again, in cognitive testing respondents did not report any difficulties in understanding the stimulus or the response options. Treatment C: Introduction plus ‘‘In this election, a lot of people could not vote or chose not to vote for good reasons. This election is some time ago now. Which of the following statements describes you best? [READ ALOUD] 1. 2. 3. 4. I I I I am am am am sure I did not vote in the federal election in September 2008. not sure if I voted but I think it is more likely that I did not. not sure if I voted but I think it is more likely that I did. sure that I voted in the federal election in September 2008.’’ To sum up, Treatment A was the standard question and forms the reference point; Treatments B and C represented question versions that offer further response options. We expected that both of the alternative question wordings (B and C) should lead to fewer instances of misreporting, and therefore to lower rates of reported turnout than the standard question. Data We conducted the survey experiment in a telephone survey.5 In our experiment, we only included respondents who were eligible to vote in the last election: these are respondents with Austrian citizenship who were at least 16 years old in 2008. The randomized assignment to the treatment groups led to slightly different subsample sizes (A: 291, B: 268, C: 290). We checked whether the subsamples had equal distributions according to the most common socio-demographic variables. There were no significant differences for the distribution of age, region, and gender (Chi-square goodness of fit test, all p > .05). However, education and employment status (in a job yes/no) were not distributed equally across treatment groups. As age is correlated with both education and employment status, we calculated a post-stratification weight6 that equally distributed education, employment status, and age across the treatment groups. By doing so, all treatment groups resembled the population. Results of the Survey Experiment: Overall Levels of Reported Turnout In a first step, we performed a descriptive analysis of reported turnout in the different treatment groups. Using the standard question (A), 82.2% of respondents reported 5 The survey was conducted by the Institute for Panel Research (Vienna), from January 17, 2011 to February 11, 2011. The population was people living in Austria aged 16 years with sufficient knowledge of German language to participate in a survey. The sampling procedure was regionally stratified random sampling of telephone numbers from the Austrian phone book, including all registered landline and cell phones. Invalid numbers were dropped and replaced by valid ones. The proportion of completed interviews (1,510) given the total number of valid phone numbers (3,000) was 50.3%. The experiment included two more treatments, not reported here. 6 For all combinations of education, employment status, and age groups, the distribution within each treatment group was adapted to the distribution in the overall sample. This weight was used as a probability weight in the Stata procedures used for later analyses. We truncated the weight at 0.5 and 2. RESEARCH NOTE 229 having voted, whereas in Treatment B, 78.4% reported turnout. Nearly 5% of the respondents chose one of the two face-saving response options; 14.0% declared openly they did not vote. In Treatment C, 74.6% declared themselves to be sure that they voted, 14.8% that they did not, which leaves >5% who reported that they were not sure whether they voted or not (see Table A1). Following Holbrook and Krosnick (2010, 2013), first we compared the real aggregate turnout in the federal elections 2008 (78.8%) with the aggregate levels of directly reported turnout for Treatments A, B, and C. As pointed out, this approach was chosen, as cross-validating respondents’ reported turnout with their real turnout is legally not possible in Austria. We are aware that by doing so, we cannot distinguish sampling or coverage errors; however, our respondents resembled the electorate quite well by excluding all people not eligible to vote in the election of interest and carefully comparing socio-demographic distributions. Second, we analyzed whether the different alternative treatments lead to different reported turnout compared with the standard question. We compared proportions of reported voters using a simple one-sided z-test, excluding all respondents who refused to answer the question. For Treatment C, we chose a conservative approach and counted respondents who said ‘‘they were not sure but probably voted’’ as voters, whereas respondents who said ‘‘they were not sure but probably did not vote’’ are counted as nonvoters. Regarding the actual behavior, our findings showed that the standard question overestimates turnout: The overestimation is significant despite the small sample sizes (see Table 1). Most importantly, though, the total reported turnout in Treatments B and C was not particularly different from the actual turnout of 78.8%. Thus, in both alternative question versions, the phenomenon of overreporting is no longer statistically detectable when compared with actual turnout. Comparing the different alternative treatments with the standard question, our analyses revealed that although self-reported turnout in Treatments B and C was lower than in A, these differences were barely not significant (choosing an alpha of 0.05), although both p-values are smaller than .10.7 Most likely, we did not achieve statistical significance owing to the small sample sizes in our treatment groups. As Treatments B and C both performed better when taking the actual turnout into account and had lower self-reported turnout than the standard question, we have first indications that their question wordings and diversified response options may be preferable to the standard question if we want to reduce overreporting. Our data give us indirect evidence that 6 out of 21 nonvoters reported voting in Treatment A (85% reported turnout compared with 79%), whereas in Treatments B and C less than 2 out of 21 nonvoters did so. 7 One might add that in cases with small n, one could also choose an Alpha of 0.1, as there might not be a negative consequence of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis and thus assuming that the new question performs better than the standard question (e.g. Black 2009, p.397). Moreover, if we count all the respondents who chose ‘‘they were not sure but probably voted’’ also as nonvoters, the p-value is 0.02, indicating a difference between treatment A and C. 230 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Table 1 Results of the Survey Experiment Estimated Turnout and Z-tests A B Voted (P*100) 85.16 80.57 Did not vote 14.84 19.43 Valid n 280 260 Standard error of P 0.021 0.025 Z-test comparing treatments to overall turnout of 78.8% 2.97 0.72 ZP(Treat)real ¼ jP(Treat) .788j/SEP(Treat) p-value .002 .237 Z-test comparing treatments to standard question (Treatment A) 1.40 ZP(A)P(treat) ¼ jP(A) P(Treat)j/SEP(A)P(Treat) p-value .080 C 80.73 19.27 276 0.025 0.77 .221 1.34 .090 Note. Weighted data; (SEP(A)P(Treat))2 ¼ SEP(A)2 þ SEP(Treat)2. Consequences on Follow-up Questions: Sequencing Effects Experimental treatment might not only affect the questions within the survey experiment but could also have consequences—in the sense of spillover effects— on later survey questions (Gaines, Kuklinski, & Quirk, 2007; Transue et al., 2009). In our survey, the question following the treatments was about party choice in the 2008 election but only for those who declared themselves as voters. The next question referred to the next election: ‘‘Imagine if there would be a Federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for?’’ It was the first question after the experimental treatments for those who had admitted nonvoting. Response options were not read aloud. Interviewers assigned the responses to one category of a given list, including the names of all parties represented in the Austrian National Council, a category ‘‘other party,’’ a category ‘‘would not vote/no party,’’ and a category ‘‘don’t know / no answer.’’ Table 2 shows the percentages of party voters, nonvoters, and undecided voters in the three treatment groups. Using z-scores again, we find that reported nonvoting in upcoming elections was affected by the different stimuli in the retrospective turnout question. Compared with respondents of Treatment A, a significantly higher proportion of respondents in Treatments B and C openly declared themselves to be nonvoters when asked which party they would vote for: It appears that respondents were less concerned of admitting that they would not turn out to vote, if (face-saving) options for reporting nonvoting were offered previously. We therefore conclude that reducing overreporting in the turnout question also has spillover effects on later questions. Once the question makes it easier to report nonvoting in the last election, this effect seems to persist, as respondents are then more likely to declare that they will also not turn out in an upcoming election. 231 RESEARCH NOTE Table 2 Spillover Effects on the Follow-up Question Prospective Turnout and Z-tests A B C Declared for a party (%) 58.16 56.54 53.50 Declared nonvoter (%) 8.27 13.95 16.09 Declared undecided (neither nor) (%) 33.57 29.51 30.40 n 291 268 290 Standard error of p(nonvoter) 0.016 0.021 0.022 Z-test comparing share of nonvoters in treatments to standard question (Treatment A) 2.13 2.90 ZP(A)P(treat) ¼ jP(A) P(Treat)j/SEP(A)P(Treat) p-value (one-sided) .016 .002 Note. Weighted data, percentages in response categories, rounded numbers. Discussion Our experiment presented new evidence that alternative question wordings and response options help to reduce overreporting of turnout to some extent also in a country with high turnout, such as Austria. Both, the question version adapted from Belli et al. (2006), and our newly developed question version provided levels of overall reported turnout that did not differ significantly from the real aggregate level of turnout. Both question versions successfully offered enough options to induce people to say that they did not vote, be it because of memory failure or because of social desirability. Compared with the standard questions, both new forms slightly reduced reported turnout, but the difference failed to be statistically significant by a small margin. Based on these results, we argue that the question wordings of Treatments B and C would improve the measurement of voter turnout, as potential sources of overreporting are reduced. Should they be used in different circumstances? This question is difficult to answer, as both question versions were tested at the same time and in the same country. We, however, speculate that Treatment B might be a better measure for post-election surveys, which are usually conducted immediately after an election, where memory errors will still be minimal but social desirability will be high: This kind of misreporting is very well captured in the response options of Treatment B. Meanwhile, the diversification of response options in Treatment C might be particularly useful for recalling turnout in previous elections as often asked in pre-election surveys where misreporting owing to memory failure will be naturally higher while social desirability might have decreased. Future comparative research taking into account how much time has passed since the last election should shed more light on this first speculative distinction. Offering more (face-saving) options for reporting nonvoting had also a spillover effect on questions regarding upcoming elections. The turnout questions in Treatments B and C led to different response behaviors in the following connected question. This even emphasizes the importance of our finding concerning alternative turnout questions, as also the bias in subsequent questions will be reduced. 232 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Our experiment has revealed interesting insights into the research of overreporting. First, we have tested successfully a new question wording that relies on propensity measures and might be of particular relevance in pre-electoral contexts. Second, we have shown that recent attempts to reduce overreporting (Belli et al., 2006) work in multiparty systems with high turnout as well, and third, that sequencing effects might be particularly relevant in research on reported turnout. There are some limitations to our results that have to be considered. First, we cannot validate the survey responses, but only compare them with the standard question. Second, misreporting is sensitive to survey mode (Tourangeau & Smith, 1996), and overreporting of turnout is, in particular, higher in interviewer-administered than in self-administered surveys (Stockè, 2007; Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010). Our findings, therefore, cannot necessarily be transferred to a different mode of questioning. Third, results might be sensitive to the time span in question. Finally, our results apply to the Austrian context, a German-speaking environment with high levels of turnout. Nevertheless, working on more valid questions for capturing voter turnout in countries where turnout validation is not an option is worth the effort, as our experiment has shown. Acknowledgments This research is conducted under the auspices of the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES), a National Research Network (NFN) sponsored by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) (S10903-G11) and was supported by a Grant from the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS). The authors would also like to thank Dr Richard Költringer, Institute for Panel Research (Vienna, Austria), for generously conducting our experiment. Appendix Table A1 Self Reported Turnout—Treatments A, B, and C Treatment A Treatment B 82.2% Voted 78.4% Usually vote, but 3.6% this time no Thought of voting, 1.4% but no Did not vote 14.3% Did not vote 14.0% Don’t know 0.8% Don’t know 0.2% Refused 2.7% Refused 2.5% n 291 268 Voted Note. Weighted data, rounded numbers. Treatment C Voted (sure) Not sure, but think I voted Not sure, but think no vote Did not vote (sure) Don’t know Refused 74.6% 2.1% 3.5% 14.8% 0.4% 4.7% 290 RESEARCH NOTE 233 References Abelson, R. 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Public Opinion Quarterly, 43, 359–377. doi:10.1086/268527. Waismel-Manor, I., & Sarid, J. (2011). Can overreporting in surveys be reduced? Evidence from Israel’s municipal elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23, 522–529. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edr021. Willis, G. B. (2005). Cognitive interviewing. A tool for improving questionnaire design. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Biographical Notes Eva Zeglovits is a post doctoral researcher at the Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna. She holds a PhD in Political Science and an MSc in Statistics and is working in the Austrian National Election Study. Her research focuses on electoral behavior, political socialization, and survey methods. Sylvia Kritzinger is Professor and Head of the Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna. She holds a PhD in Political Science and is one of the principal investigators of the Austrian National Election Study. Her research focuses on electoral behavior, public opinion formation, democratic representation, and empirical methods.