Download Quarter 2 2015 Quarterly National Accounts at a glance

WEDNESDAY 30th September 2015
GDP UNREVISED IN SECOND QUARTER OF 2015
Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
In line with the National Accounts revisions policy, all quarters are open for revision.
Quarter-on-same quarter
of previous year growth
Q1 2014
0.6%
Revised from
0.9%
Q1 2014
2.8%
Revised from
2.7%
Q2 2014
0.9%
Unrevised
Q2 2014
3.1%
Revised
from 3.0%
Q3 2014
0.6%
Revised
from 0.7%
Q3 2014
2.9%
Revised
from 3.0%
Impact of Blue Book Changes on GDP
Today’s Quarterly National Accounts publication is the first look at the Blue Book 2015
(BB15) dataset for the period Q1 (Jan to Mar) 1997 to Q2 (Apr to June) 2015. The
annual Blue Book includes a range of important changes, including:
1. addressing Gross National Income (GNI) reservations on a European System of
Accounts 1995 (ESA 95) basis;
2. incorporating the impact of reclassification decisions; and
3. implementing a range of other methodological improvements.
% growth
Quarter-on-quarter
growth
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Q4 2014
3.0%
Revised
from 3.4%
Q4 2014
0.8%
Unrevised
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Q2 2015
2.4%
Revised
from 2.6%
Q2 2015
0.7%
Unrevised
growth indexed to Q1 2008
-0.5
Q1 2015
2.7%
Revised
from 2.9%
Q1 2015
0.4%
Unrevised
108.0
0.0
1997Q2
1999Q2
2001Q2
Revision
2003Q2
2005Q2
2007Q2
BB2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
2009Q2
2011Q2
2013Q2
2015Q2
BB2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Above: presents the quarter-on-quarter growth rates for CVM GDP Q2
1997 to Q2 2015. As with the annual growth of CVM GDP, the
economic path is broadly unchanged and the differences are
concentrated in those years where the largest annual revisions were
seen - notably in 2003 and 2011 to 2013.
chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted
106.0
104.0
102.0
Left: presents revisions to GDP and GDP per head since the
previously published figures indexed from the pre-economic
downturn peak (Q1, Jan to Mar, 2008)
100.0
98.0
GDP per head and downturn analysis
96.0
Quarter-on-quarter
growth
94.0
92.0
90.0
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Real GDP previously published
GDP per head previously published
Real GDP current
GDP Per Head current
Peak to Trough
Q1 2008 – Q2 2009
Now in relation to the predownturn peak
Q2 2015
0.5%
Unrevised
Quarter-on-same quarter
of the previous year growth
Q1 2008 – Q2 2015
GDP
GDP per
Head
Previous:
Now:
-6.0%
-6.1%
Previous:
Now:
-7.0%
-6.9%
Previous:
Now:
+5.2%
+5.9%
Previous:
Now:
+0.6%
-0.1%
Q2 2015
1.9%
Unrevised
GDP per head is calculated by dividing GDP in chained volume measures by the latest population estimates and projections.
•The most recent economic downturn
consisted of 5 consecutive quarters of
negative growth.
•Revisions to GDP show that GDP
returned to pre-downturn levels one
quarter
earlier
than
previously
estimated in Q2 (Apr to June) 2013.
•GDP per head surpassed its predownturn peak in Q1 (Jan to Mar)
2015 and in Q2 2015 was 0.6% above
that peak. Previous estimates showed
that GDP per head was still below its
pre-downturn peak.
1
WEDNESDAY 30th September 2015
GDP UNREVISED IN SECOND QUARTER OF 2015
Quarterly National Accounts
Records and contributions to GDP
Q2
2015
GDP
Last
higher
Headline
GDP per
head
0.5
Income
0.7
CoE
1.2
Trade
Balance
Expenditure
Of which
Imports
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q3 2012
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2011
0.6
1.5
-7 236
Of which
Exports
Last
lower
0.8
-7 644
1.9
3.8
-2.7
Revisions Q2 2015
0.6
Contr.
to GDP
0.4
-
0.2
Income Strong CoE growth in Q2 2015 with positive contributions
from wages and salaries as well as employer’s social contributions
– strong growth in the latter attributed to higher funded data
(pension scheme) returns.
-
0.7
0.6
Expenditure Q2 2015 is the largest Q-on-Q trade balance
narrowing since Q1 2011. Strong exports of goods (largely
chemicals) and a fall in imports (decrease in machinery and
transport equipment) were key drivers.
1.4
-14 041
Output Construction Q2 2015 quarter on quarter growth was
revised from 0.2% to 1.4%. The revision was mainly due to the
incorporation of late data regarding infrastructure for the four
month period March to June 2015.
0.6
-1.2
Annual GDP and revisions contributions
-0.9
-3.2
Trade balance shown in figures (£ million). Other values are shown as
percentage growth. Table shows largest contributors to GDP
Quarterly growth, Q1 2015 to Q2 2015, chained volume measures,
seasonally adjusted
CoE means Compensation of Employees
2010
1.5%
revised
from
1.9%
2011
2.0%
revised
from
1.6%
2012
1.2%
revised
from
0.7%
2013
2.2%
revised
from
1.7%
2014
2.9%
Revised
from 3.0%
1.0%
35.0
Contributions of the components of the expenditure measure of
GDP to aggregate GDP revisions: BB15 compared with 2014
dataset, chained volume measure
Contributions to final CP level change at BB15 (1997 to 2014)
30.0
25.0
0.5%
20.0
15.0
0.0%
10.0
5.0
-0.5%
0.0
-5.0
-1.0%
-10.0
-15.0
-1.5%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
GNI
Network Rail Reclassification
Smuggling
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Local Government Pensions
CPIH Alignment
Transport for London Reclassification
Alcohol and Tobacco
Insurance Industry
Government Alignment
Latest available update to external data sources
Total nominal GDP revision
The contribution of the changes to final CP GDP level change
are above. Much of the revision is accounted for by the GNI
changes, particularly 2012, 2013 and 2014 - accounted for by
the changes to the exhaustiveness provision.
2
2013
1998
2000
HHFCE
2002
NPISH
2004
GGFCE
GCF
2006
Exports
2008
2010
Imports
2012
2014
Total revision
The changes introduced in BB15 also have a relatively modest impact on
the growth of the CVM GDP 1998 onwards, largely coinciding with the
changes to growth of CP GDP. The chart above gives some sense of the
drivers of these revisions to annual GDP growth. It highlights the
importance of GCF to the revisions. In 2003, much of the change arises
from processing changes to the acquisitions and disposals of valuables
series, while in the later years it arises from several changes to
investment data. This accounts for much of the additional growth in 2013,
while stronger household consumption also plays a role. These effects
are partially offset by a drag from trade (exports - imports) during 2013.
HHFCE stands for household final consumption expenditure, GGFCE stands for general government final consumption expenditure, GCF stands for gross capital formation, NPISH stands for non-profit institutions serving households.