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Dear readers,
The purpose of our #AskTheRobotQuestion initiative is to amplify a national
conversation about the potential impact of automation and computerization on the
future of the American workforce. The founders of Future Left hope to see this issue
discussed at the highest level of American politics: the upcoming presidential debate
series.
Though we at Future Left may have our own set of policy preferences, we wanted to
reach out to a diverse range of outside experts to submit feedback on our initiative.
We reached out to numerous futurists, labor activists and organizations, authors,
robotics experts, and everything in between. We are deeply grateful for the responses
we received and hope that the comments we've gathered will be useful to others
seeking to participate in this conversation. We strongly encourage those who wish to
do so to use the comments below to enrich their own writing, giving attribution to the
appropriate individual or organization.
Additionally, we hope our readers will consider signing our petition on Change.org in order
to encourage debate moderators to ask US Presidential Candidates about workforce
automation. We're committed to continuing this discussion by distributing a weekly
podcast series discussing the comments submitted by the petition's supporters. Be
sure to leave a comment on the petition page so we can discuss your views during our
next podcast.
We hope our readers find the comments below as insightful and provocative as we
did, and that it contributes meaningfully to the ongoing conversation about workforce
automation and what it means for the future of working men and women and their
families. Be sure to check out the first Q&A here.
All the best,
Adam Simpson
Founder & Director, Future Left
[email protected]
“The most important disruptive force over the next eight years might actually be in
energy. Renewable power sources, especially solar, have improved dramatically and
become much cheaper over the last decade, and could potentially have a big effect on
America's energy systems during the administration of the next president. That will
especially be true if, as seems likely, battery and electric car technology also improve.
But those developments, while economically important, probably won't have big net
employment effects.
“It is harder to predict how much better machine intelligence will get and how quickly,
but its role in the workforce will be more dramatic over the long run. Programs that can
understand human speech, or even carry on a basic conversation, could transform lots of
service work, and threaten millions of jobs. And of course, machine intelligence behind
the wheel of a car could eventually wipe out jobs driving trucks, cars and buses. That
sort of displacement probably won't occur during the next administration, but the next
president will be confronting decisions that will influence how these technological trends
play out, and how workers fare as they do.”—Ryan Avent, Author of The Wealth of
Humans: Work, Power, & Status in the Twenty-First Century
“I don't like making specific predictions. I think it is best to plan for a range of
possible outcomes. If we assume technological displacement is going to continue in
employment, policies should be put in place to deal with different future employment
scenarios (i.e. levels of unemployment, degrees of polarization etc.).”—John Danaher,
Ph.D.; Blogger at Philosophical Disquisitions.
“The greatest challenge we face with emerging technology disruption is in educating
the general population on exactly what this new technology is and how it will affect their
lives, and preparing them psychology for a world where uncertainty and redundancy will
likely be the norm (at least in the short-term).
“Recently, Eric Schmidt (former CEO, Google) and Sebastian Thrun (president of
Udacity), co-authored an article in Fortune, where they outlined the many reasons we
should stop worrying about AI, relax, and trust them to build the innovative technology
of the future. While they praised all of the potentially utopian benefits of unleashing AI
into the world, they conveniently glossed over the very real, immediate problems (like
job loss and potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities) that we are likely to experience on
our way to tech-utopia.
“Policymakers need to hold the creators of disruptive technology responsible for
contributing to the solutions to sweeping societal problems their technologies may create
to ensure that they develop technology responsibly and equitably. In particular, big tech
companies should be investing in educating the general public on innovative tech
through classes, advertising, and experiential programs.
“Tech companies and policymakers need to work together to (1) offer practical, real-world
education on disruptive technology to the general public, (2) develop psychological and
social tools and coping mechanisms for people to express, understand, and process their
concerns at what will likely be a blow to our collective and individual “identity and
purpose in the world” from emerging technologies, and (3) offer Americans a collective
vision that will reach BEYOND the immediate benefits and potential ramifications of
disruptive technologies. What is the vision of the future? What should we be, collectively,
working towards that will carry us through the painful challenges of these new
technologies? This, I believe, is where we currently falter significantly, and it’s part of the
reason there is so much populist anger across the world today (“without a vision, the
people perish” – Proverbs 29:18).”—Charlie Oliver, Founder & CEO, Served Fresh Media
& Tech 2025
“Truck drivers, the largest job in 29 states, and 2nd or 3rd in many others, and the
5+ million who support them will find their jobs at risk. Ryan Petersen, founder of the
startup Flexport wrote in TechCrunch, "A convoy of self-driving trucks recently drove
across Europe and arrived at the Port of Rotterdam. No technology will automate away
more jobs—or drive more economic efficiency—than the driverless truck." Add the jobs
threatened by AI in finance and customer service, and robotics in retail, warehouses, and
manufacturing and the potential for massive disruptions exist.”—Andrew Stern, author of
Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the
American Dream
“By 2025, a number of tipping points will hit that will change how our world
progresses, many of them relating to our use of energy. By 2022-2025, all renewable
forms of electricity generation, including solar power, wind, and tidal, will become
cheaper to produce than traditional fossil fuel energy sources, without subsidies. That last
point is key, because once renewables become the cheapest form of electricity, they will
immediately be adopted by fiscal conservatives and capitalists.
“From then on, the debate around adopting renewables will end because investing in
them will simply become good business. This will accelerate the world’s shift to
renewables far faster than today analysts forecast.
“Similarly, by 2022, electric vehicles will become cheaper than combustion engine
vehicles, without subsidies, thereby following the same hockey stick adoption curve that
renewables will enjoy. Widespread adoption of self-driving cars will follow, thanks to
investments from Silicon Valley and Detroit heavyweights, by the mid-2020s.
“One dark horse disruption I’ll also mention is quantum computing. Advancements in this
tech are accelerating faster than expected due to investments from Silicon Valley and
the Pentagon. Once a true quantum computer is created, we’ll enter a new era in
computing power that will add rocket fuel to advancements across a range of
disciplines.”—David Tal, Publisher & Futurist at Quantumrun.com
“There are two key differences. One is that flexible intelligence is really
humanity's firewall against technological displacement, and machine intelligence is
getting better very rapidly. While it will be a very long time until machine intelligence is
as good as human intelligence, it might not be that long until it is good enough at enough
stuff to displace tens of millions of workers. The second is that humanity is less able to
adjust to machine competition today than it was in the past. It is much harder to achieve
big improvements in educational attainment than it was in the 19th century, for instance.
So we seem to have gotten to a point where machine intelligence is improving faster
than we can improve human skill levels.”—Ryan Avent, Author of The Wealth of Humans:
Work, Power, & Status in the Twenty-First Century
“Simple: advances in AI (specifically machine learning) converging with advances
in robotics and the emergence of the internet of things. This increases the flexibility and
scope of technological displacement.”—John Danaher, Ph.D.; Blogger at Philosophical
Disquisitions
“The key difference today is that such unemployment is not just affecting the
lower classes, but the middle class too. Many of the jobs being taken by AI are not
manual jobs; for instance, accountants and journalists are being put out of work.”—Kevin
LaGrandeur, Ph.D.; Author of Androids and Intelligent Networks in Early Modern
Literature and Culture: Artificial Slaves
“This statement (that “this time, it’s different”) is one of the most cited arguments
by experts who believe that there will not be massive employment and economic
disruption as a result of frontier technology. This time, they say, is no different than
previous times. That, of course, is simply not true. We are looking at SEVERAL
devastatingly disruptive technologies (AI, VR, autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things,
etc.) converging and, according to the developers of this technology, all being “ready for
prime time,” in the next 10 years, simultaneously. If we only had to content with just one
or two of these technologies, then we might say this time is comparable to other
technology innovation periods in history. But with so many invasive technologies
emerging simultaneously, not only does this guarantee that we will likely be completely
unprepared to deal with the disruption, but because there are so many moving parts (and
various technologies), it’s almost impossible to predict with reasonable certainty what
our world will be like (and how this tech will change it).”—Charlie Oliver, Founder & CEO,
Served Fresh Media & Tech 2025
“Technology is now affecting every sector of the economy, and for the first
time not just muscle work but mind work is being replaced. AI, as opposed to previous
technology, can now not just be programmed but learn on its own with real potential for
accelerated advancement.”—Andrew Stern, author of Raising the Floor: How a Universal
Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
“Automation of one kind or another has existed for centuries to millennia,
depending on how you define it. What’s different with today’s level of automation is that
the increasing power of our computing tech is allowing the automation of thinkingintensive tasks at a much faster rate and breadth than the automation of physical
movement.
“The result is that the rate of job and task disruption going forward will always be greater
than the rate in which we can create new/replacement jobs to provide work for our
growing population. This difference will compound over time leading to severe social
unrest unless we revamp our social welfare programs.”—David Tal, Publisher & Futurist
at Quantumrun.com
“Well, stripping the human labor from production processes is a pretty good way
to bring down costs, which means that automation often makes goods and services
cheaper and more accessible. Taking and developing photos used to be time consuming
and expensive. Now it's cheap and easy, and the huge numbers of people who worked
making photographic equipment and chemicals, and actually developing pictures for
people, don't have jobs. Automating lots of work in medicine and education should help
bring down costs and make those services more accessible. That would be a huge boon
to those unable to afford higher education or take time out of work to attend lectures,
and for those whose real incomes have been squished by rising health-care costs. It
would, however, affect job growth in sectors which have been responsible for a large
share of total employment growth over the last few decades. Real income gains from
falling costs of goods and services are nice, but these shifts would be even better if
those workers whose livelihoods are affected by automation could also find new jobs at
good wages. To manage that, governments will need to work harder to prioritize full
employment.”—Ryan Avent, Author of The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, & Status in
the Twenty-First Century.
“The benefits are many. Work (paid employment) is unpleasant for many people.
According to several surveys, a majority or significant minority of people claim to be
unsatisfied and unhappy in what they do. Nevertheless, work remains effectively (de
facto if not de jure) compulsory for most people. Freeing us from the yoke of compulsory
work is the great promise of automation. But there are two things we need to plan for
(I've written about this in my paper 'Will life be worth living in a world without work?').
The first is how we will deal with the distributional problem: if the gains of automation
go to the few how can we correct for this? The Universal Basic Income (or some other
radical reform to welfare redistribution) seem like the most conservative solutions to this
problem. The second problem is the existential one: what will people do when they no
longer work? Here, we need to think seriously about what makes life worthwhile -- what
brings meaning and fulfilment. There are standard philosophical answers (the Good, the
True and the Beautiful) but how convincing will they be in an era of rampant
automation?”—John Danaher, Ph.D.; Blogger at Philosophical Disquisitions.
“We cannot let fate or the market decide the way we share in the increased
productivity and financial rewards of the "economic winners" who benefit from our
country’s resources and institutions.”—Andrew Stern, author of Raising the Floor: How a
Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
“On the whole, increased automation will make leading our hectic and
complicated lives more effortless, will make the basics of life cheaper, and will
democratize access to opportunities to all who search for it.
“We can see these trends everyday now as Google and Apple provide us with free AI
virtual assistants to answer our questions, with globalization allowing for the
proliferation of big box and dollar stores, and with the ever shrinking costs associated
with starting your first business.”—David Tal, Publisher & Futurist at Quantumrun.com
“A universal basic income is probably the inevitable, eventual response to
automation, but I'm not sure it's the most natural immediate response. If technology
really can do everything, or almost everything, that we need done, then it makes sense
to break the link between work and the distribution of purchasing power. A universal
basic income does that. But it will be a long time until technology actually can do
everything (or almost everything). In the meantime, we don't necessarily want to reduce
the incentive to work among productive workers. We should also be aware that society
does not yet have good institutions to support large numbers of healthy adults not in
work; for now, keeping people in work is probably the best way we have to keep people
connected to society. That's another way of saying that a universal basic income might
not be a sufficient response to automation, even in the long term. Work is a powerful
organizing institution in modern society; when work no longer matters very much,
people will probably demand and create alternative systems to encourage people to
contribute to society.”—Ryan Avent, Author of The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, &
Status in the Twenty-First Century
“I think UBI is a conservative solution to the problem insofar as it envisages the
continuation of capitalism (in some form or other). That should make it more palatable to
those on the economic right. But I think it has merits for those on the opposite side of
the ideological fence too. Indeed, I think it is a great shame that the moral arguments for
the UBI are getting lost in the current debate about automation. UBI is often touted as a
practical solution to the problem of automation. But it is much more than that. The UBI
can enhance liberty and autonomy, and could help to address the gendered division of
labor. I would like to see more of those qualities being emphasized in ongoing
conversations about the UBI.”—John Danaher, Ph.D.; Blogger at Philosophical
Disquisitions
“It is appropriate, but not sufficient, in part because it is so politically difficult to
institute. Other methods should be used too, such as the idea of providing microincomes to people by charging companies like Google a fraction of a cent each time they
harvest and use people’s data as a salable thing. Right now, for instance, their language
translation application uses all kinds of human translators’ work for free.”—Kevin
LaGrandeur, Ph.D.; Author of Androids and Intelligent Networks in Early Modern
Literature and Culture: Artificial Slaves
“A universal basic income can act both as a supplement to work for a long
period of transition, and may ultimately be a substitute to work. It may be biggest and
the best "new idea" of the 21st century with roots to Thomas Paine, Milton Friedman,
Richard Nixon, and Martin Luther King. It is one scenario to deal with a tsunami of labor
market disruption. What we need now is to compare UBI to other ideas, and be prepared
to secure the economic wellbeing of our families regardless of the way and speed
technology develops.”—Andrew Stern, author of Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic
Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
“The UBI will play a big role in alleviating the societal stress that exponentially
advancing automation will create. My only concern is how universal will this universal
basic income be?
“Sure, developed nations may be able to afford a UBI by reforming their existing social
welfare programs, but what about the majority of the world’s population who live in
South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia? These regions don’t have or can afford
the social safety net programs we enjoy, at least not on the level the developed world
offers.
“On the whole, we’re living during the transition time between the era of scarcity and
the era of abundance. My fear is that if automation does not advance humanity quickly
enough to provide abundance to every human on the planet, then the developed world
risks being overwhelmed by untold millions of automation and climate refugees.”—David
Tal, Publisher & Futurist at Quantumrun.com
“In the short run, there are lots of things we ought to be doing which could
minimize the disruptive effect of new technologies. It is vital to make sure there is
adequate demand, for instance, so that recession conditions don't add to workers'
misery. Governments should seize the opportunity to make big, productivity-enhancing
public investments when they arise. In response to more prolonged shocks, governments
could seek to encourage work sharing: subsidizing worker wages while allowing people
to work fewer hours per week.”—Ryan Avent, Author of The Wealth of Humans: Work,
Power, & Status in the Twenty-First Century
“Yes. We could reduce the work week, job share, change the Earned Income Tax
Credit (EITC), make benefits portable, have a universal retirement system and health care
system, mandate national service for 2 years, create infrastructure and other job
programs.”—Andrew Stern, author of Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can
Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
“The universal basic income (UBI) is key to alleviating some of the downsides
associated with the extreme levels of structural unemployment future generations will
experience. That said, the trick will be how various nations will afford it.
“This is why myself, and the Quantumrun team, actively advocate for the advance of
renewable technologies, as well as automation. For example, the United States spends
about one trillion dollars on fossil fuels annually to power American buildings and
vehicles; if we shifted to renewables and electric cars, the savings the US government
can generate can be reinvested into the UBI.
“This is just one example of how future technologies can reduce societal costs enough to
afford the abundant era that the UBI will help usher in.”—David Tal, Publisher & Futurist
at Quantumrun.com
“For an individual, education creates skills, relationships, and knowledge. As it
relates to jobs, as we now see with lawyers, accountants, and adjunct professors,
education has a marginal effect on job creation or sustainability.”—Andrew Stern, author
of Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild
the American Dream
“At this point, no profession or course students learn today will exist or remain
the same in 10 or even five years’ time. Students will be best served by learning the
fundamentals of business, developing a generalist mentality, and developing the soft
interpersonal skills that machines won’t be able to match for decades to come.”—David
Tal, Publisher & Futurist at Quantumrun.com
“Unfortunately, I don't really have short answers to this question. I think
advances in robotics and AI will have many other impacts on society, e.g. changing how
government decisions are made and implemented, changing our understanding of
responsibility and liability.”—John Danaher, Ph.D.; Blogger at Philosophical Disquisitions
“This kind of stuff is notoriously hard to predict, but here’s a shot anyhow. I
think it’s very likely that we will begin adding more implantable technology to our bodies
and brains, which will alter the way we interact with machines and the rest of
society. An example of this that’s already on the horizon is a “neural mesh” that’s been
developed by Charles Lieber’s team of nanotechnologists at Harvard. This super-tiny,
easy to implant mesh has been injected into the brains of mice to allow their brains to
communicate directly with outside digital devices.”—Kevin LaGrandeur, Ph.D.; Author of
Androids and Intelligent Networks in Early Modern Literature and Culture: Artificial
Slaves
“One job we need more of is philosophers. We have the opportunity to go up
Maslow's need hierarchy towards self-actualization, and work for money may not be the
highest order. We are unprepared for the continual downward pressure on jobs and
work. We need our children and grandchildren to lead this discussion, and older
Americans (like me) who lived in the 20th century world of work should not try and
design the 21st.”—Andrew Stern, author of Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic
Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
“Technology doesn’t just disrupt and displace businesses and industries, it also
disrupts and displaces people. One example is the Hikikomori in Japan; they are an entire
generation of youth (well over one million and growing) who have disengaged with
society. Between the ages of 15 and 39, these youths have spent an average of three to
seven years in isolation, refusing to leave their homes, watching TV and playing video
games all day.
“Most common among men, these Hikikomori are suffering from a disorder caused by a
mix of psychological and societal influences that stems from the pressure to excel in a
hyper-competitive world and the feeling of inadequacy from their inability to succeed
and financially support themselves. This feeling manifests in a shunning of the outside
world and social reclusion.
“Sadly, this phenomenon isn’t limited to Japan and there are reports of this behavior
manifesting itself throughout the world. And chances are that this phenomenon will only
increase over time as our growing population competes for fewer and fewer job
opportunities due to automation. Overall, society will need to adjust our values to learn
how to lead a fulfilled life without a traditional 9-to-5 job.
“One hopeful counter to this forecast is that once enough people are liberated from
dead end or monotonous labor (thanks to automation and the UBI), more people can and
will pursue their dreams in the arts and entertainment fields, as well as participate in
local community building initiatives—things that contribute to a more abundant and
diverse cultural landscape for all.”—David Tal, Publisher & Futurist at Quantumrun.com