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Egypt Summary Moody’s B3 / S&P B- / Fitch B1 Economy: Agriculture 15%, Industry 40%, Services 45% Having restored political stability following the election of General el-Sisi in May 2014, Egypt is in the process of restoring confidence in the economy and has embarked on a structural reform program that includes IMF support. Egypt also benefits from dependable donor support due to its geopolitical importance, particularly with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The United States and European Union are also likely to reengage with Egypt given its importance as an ally in the region. Another key positive is low public external debt. The majority of public debt is denominated in local currency and is held domestically. External liquidity is limited despite substantial official inflows from the GCC, but is expected to improve following the Egyptian pound devaluation. The fiscal position has deteriorated substantially and will need to be redressed with politically painful and unpopular measures, such as the removal of subsidies. The new administration has begun fiscal adjustment, but delicate social conditions and inflexible public expenditures are likely to make this a gradual multi-year process. Economic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 82.4 84.6 86.8 89.0 91.0 93.1 GDP per Capita (USD) 3,520 3,432 3,709 3,670 3,418 2,496 Nominal GDP (USD Billions) 232.5 Population (Millions) 2017F 290.1 290.4 321.9 326.6 311.2 Real GDP (%) 2.2 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.5 3.6 Year-End CPI (%) 7.3 9.8 8.2 11.4 10.8 16.4 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -10.0 -13.4 -12.9 -11.5 -12.0 -9.7 Interest (% of Revenues) 24.3 32.3 30.1 30.9 37.5 33.9 FC Debt/Public Debt (%) 13.7 16.2 14.2 14.0 15.5 15.5 Government Debt (% of GDP) 74.6 84.8 86.3 89.0 94.6 93.4 354.3 387.3 363.4 405.4 465.4 401.7 Current Account (% of GDP) -3.3 -1.3 -1.8 -5.1 -5.0 -4.5 FDI (% of GDP) 2.0 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.9 External Debt (% of GDP) 13.2 15.6 12.4 16.4 18.5 26.4 Foreign Reserves/External Debt (%) 35.5 37.8 38.7 30.8 35.7 37.4 Foreign Reserves (Mo. of imports) 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.8 3.8 Foreign Reserves (% of GDP) 4.7 5.9 4.8 5.0 6.6 9.9 Government Debt (% of Revenue) As of November 2016 Forecasted or estimated results do not represent a promise or guarantee of future results and are subject to change. Source: IMF, Haver 577 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Rating History Below is a history of the country’s foreign and local currency ratings by the major agencies dating back to 2000. We have also included a chart of the country’s hard currency external debt spread and the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index spread for comparison. Rating History Hard Currency Local Currency BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B BCCC+ CCC 2000 2008 Moody’s 2016 S&P Fitch A ABBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B BCCC+ CCC 2000 2008 Moody’s S&P 2016 Fitch As of December 2016 Performance represents past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Fitch, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, Bloomberg Bond Spreads 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 Egypt 2010 2012 2014 2016 EMBIGD As of December 2016 Performance represents past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: JP Morgan 578 Egypt Strengths Geopolitical Significance With a population of 90 million people, significant power in a volatile and complex region, and access to the Middle East via the Suez Canal—Egypt holds significant geopolitical influence. As such, Egypt traditionally counts on the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for significant sources of support and financing. For example, from 2014–2015, Egypt received over US$10 billion from these sources, consisting of US$6 billion in deposits at the central bank to strengthen reserves and liquidity, US$1 billion in cash grants, and US$3.7 billion in-kind grants.2 More recently, the UAE also made a US$1 billion deposit to help Egypt secure the conditions of an IMF agreement.3 The GCC sees Egypt as a key ally and is expected to continue providing support, given that they see Islamic extremists and the Muslim Brotherhood as threats to their own regimes. However, GCC support has decreased recently in light of the commodity price shock that is stressing the fiscal conditions as well as the ongoing diplomatic discord with Qatar.4 The United States has also been a traditional ally of Egypt, providing an estimated US$76 billion between 1948 and 2015, and US$1.3 billion in military assistance for Egypt in fiscal-year 2016.5 While the new incoming US administration has not delineated its Middle East policy, ensuring stability and fighting terrorism remains high on the US agenda.6 Reform Agenda with IMF Support Since President el-Sisi took office in 2014, a series of important reforms have taken place. This includes the passage of an important, (but delayed), investment law in March 2015, which updated Egypt’s legal framework to attract and protect investments.7 This was followed with a high-profile investment conference that attracted an initial pledge for investment worth US$38.2 billion and signed memorandums of understanding for deals worth up to US$92 billion.8 The government has also implemented a series of fiscal and budgetary reforms, such as the gradual elimination of fuel subsidies which was well received by rating agencies and led to a credit upgrade in 2015.9 Egypt reached a major agreement with the IMF in 2016 that will help consolidate reform efforts and should help restart the Egyptian economy.10 The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound should also help support the economy. Energy Sector The energy sector is one of the key priorities for Egypt both in terms of reforms, and significant progress has been made since Mr. el-Sisi came to office. Power shortages, which were frequent and constant in the past, have been reduced considerably, and there is also an ambitious plan to have 20% of energy to be renewable by 2020.11 Energy subsidies, which in the past were a major fiscal drag, are being eliminated gradually. Finally, the recent “supergiant” gas discovery of up to 30 trillion cubic feet is significant for Egypt. Once gas comes into production, Egypt will no longer need to import gas to meet domestic demand. Low External Debt Burden and Low Rollover Risk External debt is fairly low at less than 20% of GDP,12 of which only a very small portion is owed to the international market.13 While external debt is likely going to continue to rise in the coming years as Egypt enters into various bilateral and multilateral agreements to rebuild its external liquidity, the debt burden is likely to remain fairly low both in absolute and relative terms. Close to 90% of the public debt is denominated in local currency, and local banks and other domestic entities hold 95% of the debt stock.14 Thus, even though the headline public debt-to-GDP ratio is high at more than 90% of GDP, actual refinancing risk is low. 579 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Positive Growth throughout Crisis Egypt’s economic performance has been weak since the crisis, with growth less than half the rate prior to the Arab Spring. Tourism, investment, and consumption have all struggled amid political volatility and uncertainty. Remarkably, growth remained positive throughout one of the biggest shocks in the country’s history. Since the political situation stabilized, economic activity has picked up, with GDP in 2017 estimated at 3.6%.15 Tourism is still declining, especially in light of the Russian plane crash that carried tourists from the resort town of Sharm el-Sheik,16 but construction activity has picked up due to GCC-funded infrastructure and real estate projects. Weaknesses Poor External Liquidity Even though the stock of external debt is low and, as a consequence, external financing needs are also low, Egypt’s external liquidity position has suffered significantly since the political upheaval. Foreign exchange reserve levels have been low, falling to as little as US$15.5 billion in July 2016 before improving to US$19 billion as of October 2016,17 a sharp decline from the US$36 billion it had in December 2010 before the Arab Spring. Lack of external liquidity has impacted the business sector and the economy overall, but conditions are expected to improve following the devaluation which should facilitate foreign capital inflow. Political and Social Tensions After the removal of Egypt’s first democratically elected president, President Morsi, in July 2013, General el-Sisi won the May 2014 presidential election in a landslide victory, with 96.9% of the votes amid very low voter turnout. Supporters—the business community that was strongly tied to former President Mubarak in particular—are happy to see order restored with the help of the army, after three years of turmoil. However, the West initially gave a lukewarm reception to the new regime due to concerns about the repression of the opposition. Indeed, more than 16,000 people have been jailed, over 1,000 killed, public protests have been banned, and there have been crackdowns on the press.18 Yet, the threats stemming from violent jihadism in the region have changed the West’s attitude toward Egypt, as it is a major regional ally, and the political dynamic presents a quandary for US policy makers.19 As Egypt undertakes austerity measures as part of its adjustment process, the government will also be challenged to contain social tension and potential protests.20 Slow Pace of Reform Egypt’s fiscal position has deteriorated significantly in recent years, as the economic slowdown affected revenues, and expenditures are largely inflexible as a result of subsidies, wages, and interest payments. While the new administration has embarked on an adjustment program and has made progress, much work remains to be done in order to tackle Egypt’s structural weaknesses. Some important reforms such as the introduction of the value-added tax and the reduction of fuel subsidies were approved in 2016, but this took longer than anticipated. Other reforms the government is working on, such as simplifying bureaucracy, may also prove a daunting task; it is estimated that Egypt has 33 different ministries, more than 2,500 departments, and executive bodies that employ in the aggregate of circa 6.4 million people.21 The challenge for the government is to push for reforms and adjustments while maintaining social stability. 580 Egypt Country Background Size 1,002,450 KM2 (30th) Capital Cairo Population 94.7 Million Ethnic Groups Egyptians (99.6%) Religion Sunni Muslim 90%, Roman Catholic 9%, Other Christian 1% Median Age 23.8 Years Literacy Rate 73.8% Independence February 1922 Political System Republic President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Legislative Elections 2018 Legislative Branch Elections in 2015, Parliament Came Together in Early 2016 Economy Agriculture 11.2%, Industry 36.3%, Service 52.5% Labor Force Agriculture 29%, Service 24%, Industry 47% Merchandise Exports Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Fruits and Vegetables, Cotton, Textiles Export Partners Saudi Arabia 9.1%, Italy 7.5%, Turkey 5.8%, UAE 5.1%, US 5.1%, UK 4.4%, India 4.1% Currency Pound (EGP) As of November 2016 Source: CIA 581 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Country Timeline Six-day war 1967 May—Egypt, Jordan sign defence pact. Israel says it increases danger of war with Arab states. 1967 June—Six-Day War in which Israel defeats forces of Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Israel takes control of Sinai, the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and the West Bank. 1970 September—Nasser dies and is replaced by his Vice-President, Anwar al-Sadat. 1971 Treaty of Friendship between Egypt and the Soviet Union is signed. 1971 Egypt's new constitution is introduced and the country is renamed the Arab Republic of Egypt. 1971 The Aswan High Dam is completed. It proves to have a huge impact on irrigation, agriculture and industry in Egypt. Yom Kippur 1973 October—Egypt and Syria go to war with Israel during Israel's celebration of Yom Kippur to reclaim the land they lost in 1967. Egypt begins negotiations for the return of Sinai after the war. 1975 June—The Suez Canal is re-opened. It had been closed since the 1967 war. 1976 Anwar al-Sadat ends the Treaty of Friendship with the Soviet Union. 1978 September—Camp David Accords for peace with Israel are signed. 1979 March—The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel is signed. Egypt is then condemned by other Arab nations and excluded from the Arab League. Sadat assassinated 1981 October—Anwar al-Sadat is assassinated by Jihad members. A national referendum approves Hosni Mubarak as the new president. 1987 October—Mubarak begins his second term. 1989 Egypt rejoins the Arab League. 1993 October—Mubarak begins his third term in office. 1995 June—Mubarak is the target of an assassination attempt in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, upon his arrival at a summit of the Organisation of African Unity. 1997 Fifty-eight tourists are killed by gunmen in front of the Temple of Hatshepsut near Luxor. It is alleged that Egypt's Islamic Group (Jemaa Islamiya) is responsible. 1999 October—Mubarak begins his fourth term in office. 2000 December—Egypt, Lebanon and Syria agree on a billion-dollar project for a pipeline to carry Egyptian gas under the Mediterranean to the Lebanese port of Tripoli. 2002 February—Hundreds of passengers are killed after their train catches fire south of Cairo. Sinai bomb 2004 October—Bomb attacks target Israeli tourists on Sinai peninsula; 34 people are killed. 2004 November—Funeral of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is held in Cairo. 2005 February-April—Pro-reform and opposition activists mount anti-government demonstrations. 2005 May—Referendum vote backs a constitutional amendment that will allow multiple candidates to stand in presidential elections. 2005 July—Scores of people are killed in bomb attacks in the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh. 2005 September—President Mubarak is re-elected for a fifth consecutive term. 582 Egypt 2005 December—Parliamentary polls end with clashes between police and supporters of the opposition Muslim Brotherhood. The National Democratic Party and its allies retain their large parliamentary majority. Muslim Brotherhood supporters, elected as independents, win a record 20% of seats. More than 20 Sudanese migrants die after police break up a protest camp outside the UN offices in Cairo. 2006 February—Up to 1,000 people die when a ferry carrying about 1,400 passengers from Saudi Arabia to Egypt sinks in the Red Sea. 2006 April—Bomb attacks in the Red Sea resort of Dahab kill more than 20 people. 2006 August—Egypt praises the way the guerrilla group Hezbollah held out in the war with Israel in Lebanon after earlier questioning its judgement. 2006 November—Egypt is one of at least six Arab countries developing domestic nuclear programmes to diversify energy sources, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports.President Mubarak promises democratic and constitutional reform in an address to parliament. Opponents are sceptical. 2006 November—Upsurge in arrests of Muslim Brotherhood members. 2007 March—Referendum on constitutional amendments. The authorities say 76% of voters approve changes, opposition groups say the poll was rigged. 2007 April—Amnesty International criticises Egypt's record on torture and illegal detention. More than 30 members of the Muslim Brotherhood go on trial, the first time in seven years that members of the group have been tried under military jurisdiction. 2007 June—Parliamentary elections. Governing National Democratic Party wins most votes. Press harassed 2007 October—Independent, opposition newspapers protest against "government harassment" after seven journalists are imprisoned and an editor is put on trial. Dustur newspaper editor Ibrahim Eissa sentenced to six months in jail for reporting rumours about President Mubarak's health. Rights groups demand change to law on reporting "false information". 2008 April—Military courts sentence 25 leading Muslim Brotherhood members to jail terms in crackdown targeting the organisation's funding. More than 800 arrested over a month. Brotherhood boycotted municipal elections after only 20 candidates allowed to stand. 2008 November—The governing NDP says it will privatise some state firms and distribute free shares to citizens. State will retain majority stakes in strategically important assets such as iron, steel, transport and tourismSecurity forces redeploy in Sinai after clashes over smuggling into Gaza Strip with local Bedouin left several tribesmen dead. 2009 February—Leading opposition figure Ayman Nour freed after serving three years of five-year sentence on forgery charges that he said were politically motivated.Bomb attack in popular tourist area of Cairo kills a French student and injures 24 other people. Authorities arrest three suspects, say small Islamist cell thought to be responsible. Terror arrests 2009 April—Egyptian authorities say they arrested 49 people the previous year on suspicion of helping Hezbollah send money and aid to Hamas in Gaza. 2009 May—Egyptian police clash with Coptic Christian pig farmers trying to stop their animals being taken away for slaughter as a precaution against swine flu. Interior Ministry says seven people with suspected links to al-Qaeda arrested in connection with Cairo bomb attack which killed a French student in February. 2009 June—US President Barack Obama makes key speech in Cairo calling for a new beginning between the United States and the Muslim world. 2009 July—Egyptian officials say 25 militants suspected of having al-Qaeda links were arrested for plotting attacks on ships in the Suez Canal. 2009 August—Twenty-six members of an alleged cell of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah go on trial in Cairo on charges of plotting attacks in Egypt and helping to send weapons to Hamas in Gaza. 583 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt 2009 November—Row between Egypt and Algeria following violence at football matches. 2009 December—Foreign activists protest in Cairo against Egypt's refusal to let aid convoys into Gaza. 2010 January—Coptic Christians clash with police after an apparently sectarian shooting outside a church. Anti-Mubarak protests 2010 February—Former UN nuclear chief Mohammed ElBaradei returns to Egypt and, together with opposition figures and activists, forms a coalition for political change. ElBaradei says he might run in presidential election scheduled for 2011. 2010 March—President Mubarak undergoes gall-bladder surgery in Germany, returning to Egypt three weeks later. 2010 June—Muslim Brotherhood fails to win any seats in elections to the Shura consultative upper house of parliament; alleges vote was rigged. 2010 November—Coptic Christians clash with police in Giza over construction of church. Parliamentary polls, followed by protests against alleged vote rigging. Muslim Brotherhood fails to win a single seat, though it held a fifth of the places in the last parliament. 2011 January—21 killed in bomb at church in Alexandria where Christians had gathered to mark the New Year. Anti-government demonstrations, apparently encouraged by Tunisian street protests which prompted sudden departure of President Ben Ali. President Mubarak reshuffles his cabinet but fails to placate demonstrators, whose calls for his resignation grow louder. Days later he promises to step down in September. 2011 February—President Mubarak steps down and hands power to the army council. 2011 March—Egyptians approve package of constitutional reforms aimed at paving the way for new elections. 2011 April—Former President Mubarak and his sons, Ala and Gamal, are arrested on suspicion of corruption. 2011 April-August—Protests continue in Cairo's Tahrir Square over slow pace of political change. Islamist groups come to the fore. Army finally disperses protestors in August. 2011 August—Former President Mubarak goes on trial in Cairo, charged with ordering the killing of demonstrators earlier in the year. 2011 October—Clashes between Coptic Christians and security forces kill 24 people.Egypt and Israel swap 25 Egyptians in Israeli custody for a US-Israeli citizen accused of spying. 2011 November—Violence in Cairo's Tahrir square as security forces clash with protesters accusing the military of trying to keep their grip on power. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf resigns in response to the unrest. Start of parliamentary elections. 2011 December—National unity government headed by new Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri takes office. 2012 January—Islamist parties emerge as victors of drawn-out parliamentary elections. 2012 March—Pope Shenouda III, the veteran head of the Coptic Church, dies. 2012 April—Crisis in relations with Saudi Arabia over the Saudi detention of an Egyptian lawyer briefly threatens the substantial aid that the Saudis provide Egypt. First free presidential poll 2012 May—Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi tops the first round of voting in first free presidential elections, narrowly ahead of Mubarak-era prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. Official media put turnout at a low 43%. Military leaders announce the end of the state of emergency in place since Anwar al-Sadat's assassination in 1981, as its last renewal expires. 2012 June—Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi narrowly wins presidential election. Court sentences ex-President Mubarak to life in prison for complicity in the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising. 2012 July—President Mursi submits to a Supreme Court ruling that the parliamentary elections were invalid, after initially ordering parliament to meet in defiance of a military decree dissolving it in June. 584 Egypt 2012 August—New prime minister Hisham Qandil appoints a cabinet dominated by figures from the outgoing government, technocrats and Islamists, to the exclusion of secular parties. Islamist fighters attack an army outpost in Sinai, killing 16 soldiers, and mount a brief incursion into Israel, highlighting the tenuousness of government control over the largely-lawless area. President Mursi dismisses Defence Minister Tantawi and Chief of Staff Sami Annan and strips military of say in legislation and drafting the new constitution. 2012 September—Egypt kills 32 militants and destroys 31 smuggling tunnels to Gaza in an offensive against militants who attacked troops in Sinai in August. Tension over new constitution 2012 November—Bishop Tawadros is chosen as the new pope of Egypt's Coptic Christians. President Morsi issues a decree stripping the judiciary of the right to challenge his decisions, but rescinds it in the face of popular protests. 2012 December—Islamist-dominated constituent assembly approves draft constitution that boosts the role of Islam and restricts freedom of speech and assembly. Public approve it in a referendum, prompting extensive protest by secular opposition leaders, Christians and women's groups. Government paralysis weakens the currency and delays a $4.8bn (£3bn) IMF loan. 2013 January—More than 50 people are killed during days of violent street protests. Army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi warns that political strife is pushing the state to the brink of collapse. 2013 March—A court halts President Morsi's plans to bring parliamentary elections forward to April, citing failure to refer the electoral law to the Constitutional Court. The main opposition National Salvation Front had announced a poll boycott earlier. 2013 June—President Morsi appoints Islamist allies as regional leaders in 13 of Egypt's 27 governorships. Most controversially he appoints a member of a former Islamist armed group linked to a massacre of tourists in Luxor in 1997. This prompts protests and the Luxor governor subsequently resigns. Islamists ousted 2013 July—The military removes President Morsi amid mass demonstrations calling on him to quit. Mr Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood reject a timetable for new elections laid out by interim president Adly Mansour. 2013 August—Hundreds are killed as security forces storm protest camps in Cairo set up by supporters of Mr Morsi. Human Rights Watch says action may constitute a crime against humanity. Some 40 Coptic churches are destroyed in a wave of attacks. 2013 September—Army launches major campaign against militants in northern Sinai, clearing a strip along the border with Gaza to stop Hamas and other Palestinian militants entering the peninsula. Hamas denies any involvement. A court bans Muslim Brotherhood from carrying out any activity in Egypt and orders confiscation of its assets. 2013 October—Egypt criticises US decision to suspend large part of $1.3bn (£810m) in aid following months of political turmoil. 2013 November—A new law restricts public protests. 2013 December—Government declares Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group after a bomb blast in Mansoura kills 12. 2014 January—Egyptians vote in referendum on a new constitution drafted since the July 2013 overthrow of the Islamist-led government. The new basic law bans parties based on religion. 2014 February—Government of Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi resigns in a surprise move. No reasons are given. 2014 May—Former army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi wins presidential election. 2014 June—International outcry as three al-Jazeera journalists are jailed after being found guilty of spreading false news and supporting the banned Muslim Brotherhood. 2014 October—Egypt demolishes houses along border with Gaza to stop arms smuggling to jihadist group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis after it steps up attacks on security forces in Sinai. Government grants military extra powers in peninsula under three-month state of emergency. 585 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt 2014 November—Ansar Beit al-Maqdis pledges allegiance to the extreme Islamic State movement, which controls parts of Syria and Iraq. 2015 February—Egyptian aircraft bomb Islamic State positions in eastern Libya after extremist group released video apparently showing killing of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians. Egypt seeks UN mandate to sanction international intervention in Libya. 2015 May—Ousted President Morsi sentenced to death over 2011 mass breakout of Muslim Brotherhood prisoners, along with more than 100 others. He was sentenced to 20 years in prison in April over arrest and torture of protesters during his 2012-2013 rule. 2015 June—Prosecutor-General Hisham Barakat and three members of the public killed in suspected Islamist car bombing in Cairo.2015 July - Islamic State launches wave of attacks in North Sinai. 2015 July—Islamic State launches wave of attacks in North Sinai. 2015 October—Islamic State claims responsibility for destruction of Russian airliner in Sinai, in which all crew and 224 tourist passengers were killed. 2016 January—Islamic State carries out attack at Giza tourist site and is suspected of attack on tourists in Hurghada. 2016 April—Egypt announces that it will hand over to Saudi Arabia two strategic Red Sea islands, sparking public outrage and unrest. 2016 May—EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo crashes into the Mediterranean Sea. 2016 November—MF approves a three-year $12bn loan to Egypt designed to healp the country out of its deep economic crisis. 2016 November—Egypt's appeals court overturns the death sentence of former president Mohamed Morsi and orders a retrial in connection with a mass prison break in 2011. Source: BBC 586 Egypt Notes 1 As of December 2016. 2 “Official: GCC not expected to provide Egypt with additional aid during FY15/16,” Egypt Independent, June 28, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/official-gcc-notexpected-provide-egypt-additional-aid-during-fy1516. 3http://www.thenational.ae/business/banking/uae-to-provide-egypt-central-bank-with-six-year-1-billion-deposit, accessed November 16, 2016. 4http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/world/middleeast/gulf-cooperation-council-backs-qatar-in-dispute-withegypt.html, accessed November 16, 2016. 5 Sharp, Jeremy M., “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations,” Congressional Research Service, July 24, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf. 6http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/11/trump-aid-middle-east-congress-jordan-egypt-tunisia. html, accessed November 16, 2016. 7 Kalin, Stephen and Yara Bayoumy, “Egypt’s cabinet approves long-awaited investment law,” Rueters, March 4, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/us-egypt-investmentlaw-idUSKBN0M00W120150304. 8 “Egypt signed final investment deals worth $33 bn at conference: Salman,” Ahram Online, March 15, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/162/125291/Business/EEDC-/ Egypt-signed-final-investment-deals-worth--bn-at-c.aspx. 9 Parasie, Nicolas, “Egypt’s Reforms Bear Fruit as Moody’s Upgrades Credit Rating,” Wall Street Journal, Frontiers Blog, April 7, 2015, accessed November 27, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/04/07/ egypts-reforms-bear-fruit-as-moodys-upgrades-credit-rating/. 10http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/11/11/NA111116-A-Chance-For-Change-Egypt, accessed November 16, 2016. 11Carlisle, Tamsin, “Egypt’s Sisi outlines national energy policy at World Future Energy Summit,” Platts, The Barrel, January 21, 2015, accessed November 27, 2015, http://blogs.platts.com/2015/01/21/egypt-sisienergy-policy/. 12“Arab Republic of Egypt: 2014 Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 15/33, February 2015, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr1533.pdf. 13As of November 2015, Source: IMF. 14As of October 2014, Source: Haver. 15IMF WEO October 2016 data. 16Kaplan, Michael, “Following Russian Plane Crash In Sinai, Fears That Egypt’s Tourism Jewel Of Sharm El-Sheikh Could Be Lost,” International Business Times, November 6, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, http://www.ibtimes.com/following-russian-plane-crash-sinai-fears-egypts-tourism-jewel-sharm-elsheikh-could-2173408. 17 Bloomberg data. 18“Stop U.S. support for the repressive regime in Egypt,” Washington Post, October 28, 2014, accessed on December 1, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/stop-us-support-for-the-repressive-regime-inegypt/2014/10/28/0c871dca-5ebd-11e4-8b9e-2ccdac31a031_story.html. 19Sharp, Jeremy M., “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations,” Congressional Research Service, July 24, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf. 20http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-currency-protests-idUSKBN1360U4, accessed November 16, 2016 21“Egyptian government to put VAT law to new parliament,” Ahram Online, November 8, 2015, accessed on November 27, 2015, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/164019/Business/Economy/Egyptiangovernment-to-put-VAT-law-to-new-parliame.aspx. 587 Important Information Published on 24 February 2017. 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The information in this document does not constitute any specific investment advice on China capital markets or an offer of securities or investment, tax, legal, or other advice or recommendation or, an offer to sell or an invitation to apply for any product or service of Lazard Asset Management. Singapore: Issued by Lazard Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., 1 Raffles Place, #15-02 One Raffles Place Tower 1, Singapore 048616. Company Registration Number 201135005W. This document is for “institutional investors” or “accredited investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore and may not be distributed to any other person. United Kingdom: FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. Issued by Lazard Asset Management Ltd., 50 Stratton Street, London W1J 8LL. Registered in England Number 525667. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). United States: Issued by Lazard Asset Management LLC, 30 Rockefeller Plaza, New York, NY 10112.