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Weather Systems Introduction Weather in any region is influenced by the atmospheric changes that occur when masses of air with contrasting properties interact. The characteristics of air masses vary with location ranging from dry and cold to warm and humid. The daily clash of air masses over North America generates our common weather patterns characterized by high and low-pressure systems bounded by warm and cold fronts. These frontal systems are relatively narrow, curvilinear zones that mark a transition from one air mass to another. Weather experienced over much of the central and eastern U.S. is the result of the west-to-east migration of regional-scale low pressure systems, termed mid-latitude cyclones, and their associated warm and cold fronts. Mid-latitude cyclones affect much of the continental landmass for up to a week at a time. Meteorologists attempt to predict the path of these midlatitude cyclones and their frontal systems by monitoring their associated atmospheric conditions such as moisture, temperature, pressure, and wind direction. Using these characteristics they can predict the potential weather for two to five days in the future. However, these dynamic systems are subject to change, and the shortterm, relatively accurate forecast becomes a long-term calculated guess as the forecast extends beyond two or three days. Air Masses Air masses represent large regions (1,000s km2) of the lower troposphere with relatively uniform properties (temperature, moisture content). The characteristics of individual air masses are dependent upon the attributes of a source area and the modification of the air mass that occurs as a result of movement from the source region. Weather in any region is influenced by the changes that occur in the air mass over time and the interactions that occur at fronts, the boundaries between contrasting air masses. Source Areas An air mass develops when the atmosphere is located above a relatively uniform land or water surface for several days. The lower atmosphere assimilates some of the properties of the underlying surface. Air masses are identified by their temperature (polar/tropical) and the character of the underlying surface (continental/maritime). The latter property is a proxy for moisture content. Air masses that develop above oceans contain much more moisture than those formed over land. The distribution of air masses is relatively intuitive. Arctic and polar air masses are located at high latitudes (+50o) in the Northern Hemisphere and tropical air masses are located closer to the equator (Fig. 7). Continental air masses are found over land, maritime air masses over ocean. The boundaries between individual air masses vary with seasons. Polar air creeps further south during winter and retreats northward during summer. Meteorologists use a form of scientific shorthand to label the most common types of air masses For example a maritime tropical air mass (warm, moist air formed over the ocean) is identified by mT (m = maritime; T = tropical). The characteristics of five types of air masses are summarized below. • cA - continental Arctic/Antarctic air forms at high latitudes around the poles above permanently snowcovered ground (or pack ice). These air masses are characterized by extremely cold, dry air that may sweep south across Canada and produce days of bone-chilling cold temperatures over much of the central and eastern U.S. during winter. • cP - continental polar air forms over the northernmost portions of North America, Europe, and Asia. It shares its basic characteristics (cold, dry) with cA air, without the exceptional cold temperatures. High "lake effect" snowfalls in the upper Midwest are the result of the dry cP air masses picking up moisture as they cross the warmer waters of the • cT - hot, dry continental tropical air forms over continental interiors such as the dry lands of northern Mexico and southwestern U.S. This air mass disappears from North America in winter but brings scorching summers to the southwest. It will decay as it moves east, absorbing moisture and cooling as it goes. • mP - maritime polar air masses form in the northern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and are characterized by cool, moist air that affects states bordering the Atlantic shore of the Northeast and most of the Pacific coastline. Temperatures at the ocean surface are less extreme than on land (less cold) so mP air is warmer than cP air. • mT - high temperatures and high humidity distinguish the maritime tropical air masses that move inland from the tropical Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The mT air brings hot, humid summers to southeastern states and can form at any time during the year. Think about it . . . Create a concept map that summarizes the characteristics of the principal air masses and their influence on weather patterns in North America. Frontal Systems Frontal systems represent the meteorological battle that ensues when air masses of contrasting properties clash along their boundaries. As air masses move across Earth's surface they inevitably interact to create relatively narrow, curvilinear zones that mark a front, a transition from one air mass to another. Advancing frontal systems bring clouds and precipitation and are accompanied by changes in moisture, temperature, pressure, and wind direction. The clash between cP and mT air masses over the Great Plains and Midwest is the most common source of frontal systems in the U.S. (For more on the causes of this phenomenon, see the section, Mid-latitude Cyclones.) Weather conditions change in a predictable sequence as warm and cold fronts pass over an area. Cold Front Cold, dense continental polar air replaces moist, warm maritime tropical air across the cold front. People living downwind from the front experience decreasing temperature and humidity and increasing atmospheric pressure with the passage of the cold front. Warm air will always rise over cooler air so both the cold and warm fronts are inclined toward the warm air mass. Warm air is pushed up and over the advancing cold front, causing relatively rapid cooling and condensation that results in the development of tall cumulonimbus clouds that host heavy but relatively short-lived precipitation. Rapidly advancing cold fronts may be marked by the growth of a squall line of thunderclouds. Warm Front Changes following the passage of the warm front are more benign than the storms that travel with the cold front. Friction at Earth's surface causes the warm front to slope gently (~½ degree inclination) toward the warm air mass. Warm, humid air is transported upward over a distance of approximately 1,000 km (625 miles). The first signal of an approaching warm front is the appearance of light, upper-level clouds (cirrus, cirrostratus). Up to 12 hours later, the high clouds will be replaced by lower nimbostratus with associated light to moderate precipitation. Rain associated with a warm front may last longer than precipitation that accompanies a cold front because the warm front typically moves more slowly and extends over a larger area. Temperatures and humidity rise and winds typically shift direction (from south to southwest) with the passage of the warm front. Occluded Front The cold front moves more rapidly than the warm front (~ 10 km per hour faster) and will eventually close the gap between the fronts, forcing the intervening warm air upward generating additional precipitation. An occluded front is represented by a combination of warm and cold front symbols. The occluded front juxtaposes two bodies of cold air; the warmer of the two masses is forced up and over the other. Occluded fronts may be marked by the occurrence of nimbostratus clouds. Think About It… List the cloud types that appear with the different types of fronts. Thunderstorms Thunderstorms form where warm, humid air is forced upward to altitudes of up to 15 km. Condensation occurs as the air cools, releasing latent heat and ensuring that the rising air remains unstable (warmer than surrounding air). Thunderstorms may occur as relatively isolated, short-lived events or as longer-duration severe storms depending upon the conditions that cause the air to rise. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms, or cells, are commonplace in warm summer months where moist maritime tropical air masses move over land. The temperature of the land surface rises to a maximum during the mid-afternoon, warming overlying air parcels and causing them to become unstable enough to rise, generating scattered thunderstorms. Severe storms, or supercells, are associated with frontal lifting along the cold front between the continental polar and maritime tropical air masses in mid-latitude cyclones. These storms are most common during spring and early summer, when the contrast in temperatures between air masses is greatest. Because thunderstorms are associated with mid-latitude cyclones it should come as no surprise that storms are most common over the Great Plains and southeastern U.S. States such as Florida may experience over 100 days a year with thunderstorms whereas such storms are rare (less than 20 per year) in Pacific Coast states. There are three stages during the life of a typical thunderstorm that rarely lasts for more than two hours: 1. Cumulus stage - early cloud development when a cumulus cloud expands laterally and vertically as air enters the cloud mass at all levels. Cloud formation is rapid, requiring approximately 15 minutes to grow vertically to heights of 10 km (6 miles) Updrafts (~ 4 m/sec ear ground surface to ~ 10 m/sec at high levels) within the cloud carry humid air to higher, colder levels where condensation occurs. 2. Mature stage - top of cloud cell may be at altitudes up to 15 km (9 miles). Rain and ice formed by condensation become too large to be supported by updrafts and fall to ground. Falling precipitation generates friction within rising air, creating a zone of downdrafts. Descending air warms up, resulting in evaporation that absorbs latent heat and cools the cloud. This stage lasts for 15 to 30 minutes generating rainfall or hail at the surface accompanied by gusty winds (downdraft). 3. Dissipating stage - cloud formation processes end as moisture is expended and descending air cools the cloud mass, returning stability to air. The final stage is characterized by diminishing precipitation (light rain) as the cell dissolves. Tornadoes Tornadoes are narrow, funnel-shaped spirals of rapidly rotating air that form in association with thunderstorms. Like hurricanes and mid-latitude cyclones, tornadoes are near-circular low-pressure systems. However, the pressure gradient is much more intense for tornadoes. Pressure differences across mid-latitude cyclones are in the range of 20 to 30 mb (millibars) over hundreds of kilometers (pressure gradient, 0.02-0.03 mb/km). Hurricanes may experience pressure gradients of more than 100 mb over shorter distances (~0.2-2 mb/km) but large pressure differences in tornadoes occur over distances measured in hundreds of meters. Extreme pressure gradients of up to ~0.1 to 1 mb/m are possible for tornadoes, generating the strongest natural winds on Earth with wind velocities of up to 500 km/hr. Tornadoes are classified using the Fujita Intensity scale which places tornadoes in one of six categories (F0-F5) according to level of destruction which is taken as a proxy for wind speed. The scale divides tornadoes into three subgroups: weak (F0, F1); strong (F2, F3), and violent (F4, F5). Wind speed cannot be measured directly because the high winds that can blast apart whole buildings would make short work of measuring instruments. Scientists use the level of destruction to gauge estimates of wind speed and thus determine the Fujita value for a specific tornado. This makes it difficult to rank winds that touch down in sparsely populated areas. The funnel of the tornado moves more slowly than the winds that give it shape. Funnels are typically less than 600 m (2,000 feet) wide and average funnel velocities are approximately 50 km/hr, although velocities as high as 200 km/hr (125 mph) have been recorded. Tornado paths follow the direction of movement of their parent thunderstorms that are in turn associated with east to northeast-directed mid-latitude cyclones. Scientists have been unable to observe the birth of a tornado because of the difficulty in determining exactly where tornadoes may originate. One hypothesis on tornado formation considers tornado development in three stages : • Early stage: Friction slows winds at the ground surface, resulting in increasing wind velocity with elevation in the lower troposphere. These contrasting vertical wind speeds generate local winds that rotate about a horizontal axis. • Updraft stage: Updrafts below thunderstorm cell draw the spiraling horizontal winds upward forming a mesocyclone (a small cyclone) within the larger storm cloud cell. Mesocyclones may be up to 10 km in diameter. • Tornado stage: Rotation within the mesocyclone forms smaller, more intense spiraling winds within a tornado that extend downward from a cloud base toward the ground surface. Tornado paths are typically 5 to 25 km (3-16 miles) in length but some larger tornadoes may remain on the ground for over 100 km (62 miles). Smaller funnels may skip across the surface like a fickle avenger, destroying one home while leaving neighboring properties undisturbed. Improvements in forecasting methods have reduced the number of fatalities associated with tornadoes. Approximately two-thirds of U.S. fatalities occur as a result of tornadoes destroying homes; nonpermanent mobile homes are especially susceptible. The U.S. is home to the majority of the world's tornadoes, averaging about 1,000 a year. Tornadoes occur when thunderstorm activity is at an optimum, during the late spring and early summer across much of the nation. The highest frequency of tornadoes per area occurs over the Great Plains states (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska) and parts of the upper Midwest (Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois), a region that has come to be known as tornado alley. The timing of tornado activity is tied to seasonal movement of the polar front that drives midlatitude cyclones. Tornadoes move out of the Gulf Coast and southeastern states into the Great Plains as the front retreats northward in late spring. Summer sees tornado activity shifting to the northern Plains states and the upper Midwest. Think about it . . . Use a Venn diagram to compare and contrast the characteristics of tornadoes and hurricanes. Hurricanes Hurricanes are cyclonic storm systems that form over tropical oceans during summer and fall. Also known as typhoons (Pacific Ocean) and cyclones (Indian Ocean), hurricanes are characterized by high winds (more than 119 km/hr , 74 mph), heavy rainfall (10-25 cm 4-10 inches), and storm surges (sudden rise in sea level) along coastlines. Hurricanes are smaller (approximately a third to half the size) and less frequent than mid-latitude cyclones that govern most U.S. weather patterns but they have much more powerful winds. Unlike mid-latitude cyclones, hurricanes do not originate as a result of perturbations at a boundary between contrasting air masses. Instead they grow from tropical storms generated by disturbances in the belt of equatorial trade winds. Hurricanes can result in fatalities and substantial property damages as winds and high seas cause structural damage to ocean-going vessels and coastal developments, and heavy rainfall leads to flooding as much as 200 km inland from the coast. Building a Hurricane Hurricanes develop under a specific suite of conditions including warm surface waters, cyclonic circulation, and divergent flow in the upper troposphere. • The initial stage in the development of a hurricane is the formation of a tropical depression (low-pressure system) where the trade winds converge near the equator. The location of the convergent winds changes with seasons, lying north of the equator during summer in the Northern Hemisphere and migrating to southern latitudes during our winter. The rising air cools and condenses to form cumulus clouds that will develop into cumulonimbus cells if the rising air is sufficiently warm and humid. • Water temperatures must be at least 27oC and should extend downward for 50 to 65 meters (165-215 feet) to ensure that colder water won't be drawn to the surface by the developing storm. Warm surface waters typically straddle the equator but are absent south of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans due to oceanic circulation patterns. The North Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 to November 30, and most U.S. hurricanes strike in August and September. • Earth's rotation as reflected in the Coriolis Effect imparts a clockwise (Southern Hemisphere) or counterclockwise (Northern Hemisphere) rotation to the growing storm. The magnitude of the Coriolis Effect increases with increasing latitude and is zero at the equator. Consequently, the necessary rotation is not imparted on storms within 5 degrees either side of the equator. • The inflow of air into the developing low-pressure system must be matched with an outflow of air in the upper troposphere to maintain the pressure gradient in the developing hurricane. If not, the pressure contrast decreases and wind speed declines. If all of these conditions are met, a tropical depression (wind speed <37 km/hr) forms and has the potential of growing to a tropical storm (wind speed 63-119 km/hr) before developing into a hurricane with wind speeds of at least 119 km/hr. Wind speed increases in inverse proportion to the decrease in pressure in the eye of the hurricane; the lower the pressure the higher the wind velocity. Rising air in the deepening low pressure system cools and condenses, releasing latent heat and generating a dense spiral of cumulonimbus clouds punctuated by a central eye characterized by clear skies. Bands of clouds spiral outward from the vortex that will continue to grow in size and intensity as long as the underlying water temperature remains above 27oC. Precipitation is concentrated within a radius of approximately 100 km on either side of the eye, releasing up to 20 billion tons of water per day. Much of the destruction associated with hurricanes isn't caused by high winds or storm surges but is linked to the exceptional precipitation events that can unload 60 cm (24 inches) of rain from a single storm system in just a few days. Hurricane Measurement Hurricanes are divided into five categories by wind speed using the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale. Destruction associated with major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricanes includes damage to permanent homes, widespread coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, toppling of power lines. Anticipation of such damages prompts evacuation of residents from the area of expected landfall. Think about it . . . 1. Use the Venn diagram to compare and contrast the characteristics of tornadoes and hurricanes. 2. You work in a team of disaster specialists for the Weather Channel. The channel wants to create its own scoring system that better evaluates the potential damage from incoming storms. You and your team are given the assignment to create an evaluation rubric to assess factors that will influence the risk of potential damage from a future hurricane. Summary 1. What is an air mass? 2. How are air masses identified? 3. Which air masses have the greatest impact on U.S. weather? 4. What is a frontal system? 5. What is the difference between weather at cold and warm fronts? 6. What is an occluded front? 7. Under what conditions do thunderstorms form? 8. What are the stages of thunderstorm development? 9. Is there any similarity between tornadoes and hurricanes? 10. How do scientists classify tornadoes? 11. How do tornadoes form? 12. Why does the U.S. have more tornadoes than any place on Earth? 13. What are the key conditions needed for hurricane formation? 14. Hurricanes form over warm ocean waters with temperatures of 15. What hazards are associated with a hurricane?