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original articles 9. Paz-Ares LG, Biesma B, Heigener D et al. Phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of gemcitabine/cisplatin alone or with sorafenib for the first-line treatment of advanced, nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer. J Clin Oncol 2012; 30(25): 3084–3092. 10. Reck M, von Pawel J, Zatloukal P et al. Phase III trial of cisplatin plus gemcitabine with either placebo or bevacizumab as first-line therapy for nonsquamous nonsmall-cell lung cancer: AVAiL. J Clin Oncol 2009; 27(8): 1227–1234. Annals of Oncology 11. Manegold C, van Zandwijk N, Szczesna A et al. A phase III randomized study of gemcitabine and cisplatin with or without PF-3512676 (TLR9 agonist) as first-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Ann Oncol 2012; 23(1): 72–77. 12. Spigel DR, Kim ES, Lynch TS et al. Randomized phase III trial of gemcitabine (G)/ carboplatin (C) with or without iniparib (I) in patients ( pts) with previously untreated stage IV squamous lung cancer. J Thor Oncol 2013; 8(Suppl 2): Abstract #O15.06. Annals of Oncology 25: 2162–2166, 2014 doi:10.1093/annonc/mdu442 Published online 5 September 2014 Adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy in nonsmall-cell lung cancer: new insights into the effect on failure type via a multistate approach F. Rotolo1*, A. Dunant1, T. Le Chevalier2, J. -P. Pignon1 & R. Arriagada3 on behalf of the IALT Collaborative Group Departments of 1Biostatistics and Epidemiology; 2Medical Oncology; 3Radiation Oncology, Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, France Received 17 June 2014; revised 13 August 2014; accepted 20 August 2014 Background: Adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy has become the standard therapy against resected nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Because of variable results on its late effect, we reanalyze the long-term data of the International Adjuvant Lung Cancer Trial (IALT) to describe in details the role of adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and methods: In the IALT, 1867 patients were randomized between adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy and control, who were followed up for a median of 7.5 years. Of these, 1687 patients were enrolled from 132 centers accepting to report the times to cancer events. We used event history methodology to estimate the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy on the risks of local relapse, distant metastasis, and death. Results: Adjuvant chemotherapy was highly effective against local relapses [HR = 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60– 0.90; P = 0.003] and nonbrain metastases (HR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.66–0.94; P = 0.008) but not against brain metastases (HR = 1.1; 95% CI 0.82–1.4; P = 0.61). The effect on noncancer mortality was nonsignificant during the first 5 years (HR = 1.1; 95% CI 0.81–1.5; P = 0.29), whereas the risk of noncancer mortality was subsequently higher with treatment (HR = 3.6; 95% CI 2.2–5.9; P < 0.001). This harmful effect, however, potentially concerned only about 2% of the patients at 8 years. Conclusion: Adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy reduced the risk of local relapse and of nonbrain metastasis, thereby improving survival. This treatment exerted no residual effect on mortality during the first 5 years, but a higher risk of noncancer mortality was found thereafter. Detailed long-term follow-up is strongly recommended for all patients in randomized trials evaluating adjuvant treatments in NSCLC. Key words: cisplatin, nonsmall-cell lung cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy, randomized trial, multistate model, failure pattern introduction During the last decade, adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy has been established as an effective treatment in resected nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and it has become the standard therapy in this patient population [1, 2]. The International Adjuvant Lung Cancer Trial (IALT) [3], the first and largest *Correspondence to: Dr Federico Rotolo, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Gustave Roussy, 114 Rue Edouard-Vaillant – 94805 Villejuif Cedex, France. Tel: +33-142-11-61-28; E-mail: [email protected] randomized study on this issue, showed a significant overall survival advantage of 4.1% at 5 years in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy compared with surgery alone. The joint (Lung Adjuvant Cisplatin Evaluation [4]) LACE analysis included the IALT and the four other largest randomized trials [5–8]. LACE and, more recently, a worldwide individual patient-based metaanalysis [9] confirmed a survival benefit of about 5% at 5 years obtained with adjuvant chemotherapy. Even though this improvement was observed at the classic milestone of 5 years, long-term results should also be explored © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected]. Annals of Oncology to ensure that late toxicities do not compromise the initial benefits. Unfortunately, the long-term results of adjuvant studies are rarely known, mainly for logistical reasons. An updated analysis of IALT with a follow-up of 7.5 years [10] confirmed a benefit within the first 5 years, but showed a 1.5 mortality relative risk thereafter in the treatment arm [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0–2.1, P = 0.04]. Is the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy partially counterbalanced in the long term by late deleterious effects or late exacerbation of comorbidities? Two other smaller trials with a median follow-up of 9.3 [11] and 6.2 years [12], however, showed no evidence of a differential effect of chemotherapy over time. One of them used carboplatin [12]. LACE [4] (median follow-up: 5.2 years) could not evaluate the late effects of chemotherapy because long-term data were unavailable for three trials [5–7]. The aim of the present study was to undertake detailed analyses using more sophisticated statistical methodologies, including competing risk and multistate approaches, to better describe the early and late effects of cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in resected NSCLC. materials and methods IALT enrolled 1867 patients with resected NSCLC between February 1995 and January 2001, randomized to cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy or a control arm [3]. They were followed up for a median period of 7.5 years. The participating centers were invited to optionally report, in addition to the time to death, some patient outcomes, including the time to the first local and distant relapse, and to second tumors. Such information can be used to explore the effects of chemotherapy on mortality more thoroughly by separating its antineoplastic effect—changes in the risks of recurrence—from its residual effect, if any. This potential residual effect could also result from a change in second cancer hazards. We did not consider these events because previous results did not show such an effect [10, 13]. An analysis of the incidence of cancer-related events, based on shorter-term follow-up data, was published earlier [13]. We limited all our analyses to the 1687 patients enrolled from the 132 centers which accepted to report cancer-related events and therefore excluded the 180 patients from the remaining 17 centers (supplementary Figure S1, available at Annals of Oncology online). Supplementary Table S1, available at Annals of Oncology online, presents a description of the 1687 patients included. We used proportional hazard competing risks and multistate models [14] to estimate the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy on the risks of local relapse, metastasis, and death. We assumed that chemotherapy had a possible effect exclusively during the free-from-any-event period, and not after the occurrence of any cancer-related event. Following previous analyses [13], we assumed different effects of chemotherapy on brain and nonbrain metastases. We estimated separately the effect of chemotherapy on mortality before and after 5 years. Nonetheless, as few cancer-related events occurred after 5 years, we estimated both the effect of chemotherapy on them and their influence on the overall risk of death for the entire observation period. For full details of the statistical methods, see the supplementary Material, available at Annals of Oncology online. results In total, 1687 patients were followed up for intermediate events. One or more recurrences were reported for 895 patients and none for 792 patients. The database contained information on 401 local relapses and 689 metastases. In total, 1064 patients died Volume 25 | No. 11 | November 2014 original articles during the study, 236 without cancer events, 641 with either a local relapse or metastasis, and 187 patients with both. Figure 1 and supplementary Figures S2 and S3, available at Annals of Oncology online, show the frequencies of each event sequence. Supplementary Table S2, available at Annals of Oncology online, describes the causes of death by arm, for the whole study and by period. Supplementary Figures S4–S6, available at Annals of Oncology online, show the evolution along time of the probabilities of being in each clinical state. Local relapses occurred mostly during the first 5 years: 28% at 5 years and 32% at 10 years. Twenty-six of the 401 local relapses occurred after a metastasis, but only 15 occurred more than 4 months later. The risk of local relapse was lower in the chemotherapy arm (HR = 0.73; 95% CI 0.60–0.90; P = 0.003). The risk of local relapse was lower after metastasis (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.33–0.96; P = 0.034; supplementary Table S3, available at Annals of Oncology online). The risk of death was highly increased after local relapses (HR = 26; 95% CI 20–34; P < 0.001). Distant metastases—202 brain and 487 nonbrain lesions— were even more frequent, with an incidence of 33% at 5 years and of 38% at 10 years. Overall, 63 metastases were observed after local relapses, but only 32 metastases occurred more than 4 months later. Chemotherapy was highly effective in reducing nonbrain metastases (HR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.66–0.94; P = 0.008) but not brain metastases (HR = 1.1; 95% CI 0.82–1.4; P = 0.61). The risk of metastasis was significantly higher after local relapse (HR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.5; P = 0.003), estimated without distinguishing brain and nonbrain metastases due to the small number of events. The risk of death was highly increased after brain metastasis (HR = 38; 95% CI 29–50; P < 0.001) and nonbrain metastasis (HR = 40; 95% CI 31–51; P < 0.001). We estimated that 53% of the controls developed a local relapse or a nonbrain metastasis at 8 years. Consequently, more than half of the patients could potentially benefit from the chemotherapy. Once this benefit was taken into account, its residual effect (i.e. on noncancer mortality) was nonsignificant during the first 5 years (HR = 1.1; 95% CI 0.81–1.5; P = 0.29), meaning that all the activity of chemotherapy consisted in the prevention of recurrences (excepted brain metastases). In contrast, after 5 years, the risk of noncancer death was higher in the treatment arm (HR = 3.6; 95% CI 2.2–5.9; P < 0.001), even though the antineoplastic benefit was still present. Of note, only 36% of the controls were alive and free of cancer at 5 years and only 6% of them (2% of all the controls) died of other causes during the next 3 years. Figure 2 and supplementary Table S3, available at Annals of Oncology online, summarize the main results and supplementary Table S4, available at Annals of Oncology online, presents the effects of the adjustment variables. As expected, the risks of all events, including death, increased with advanced tumor and nodal stage. The risk of death was higher for advanced stages irrespective of whether cancer events had occurred or not (not shown). Patients who had undergone a lobectomy or a segmentectomy, when compared with pneumonectomy, had a higher risk of local relapse (HR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1–1.5; P = 0.003), brain metastasis (HR = 1.4; 95% CI 0.98–1.9; P = 0.065), and nonbrain metastasis (HR = 1.2; 95% CI 0.97–1.5; P = 0.088). A lower risk of death in lobectomy/segmentectomy patients (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.78–0.96; P = 0.001) was observed, after taking into account the effect of cancer-related events. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdu442 | original articles Annals of Oncology Randomization Both arms 792 patients without recurrence 1687 patients with follow-up of recurrences 94* 269 343 895 patients with recurrence bDM 202 c = 556 12* 177 7 c = 15 LR + bDM 32 13 c=1 LR 401 50 c = 28 LR + nbDM 163 19 c=7 nbDM 487 c = 16 623 censored patients 236 155 31 178 156 308 1064 deaths Deceased Figure 1. Number of events and event sequences in the IALT study—both arms. For example: a total of 202 bDM were observed, 177 as first event, 12 concomitantly with LR, and 13 after LR; among the 177 patients with bDM only, 7 had LR later, 155 died, and 15 were censored; among the 32 patients with both bDM and LR, 31 died and 1 was censored. DM, distant metastasis; LR, local relapse. The numbers in the gray boxes are the number of patients whose follow-up data were censored (c=). Note that only the time to the first metastasis, either brain or nonbrain, was available for each patient. Events on the arrows to intersections of event sets (for instance those 12 patients from randomization to LR + bDM) denote simultaneous events; other events occurred sequentially, like those 7 patients having LR after bDM. An early toxic effect of chemotherapy during the first 12 months for noncancer deaths (HR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.0–2.8; P = 0.044) was observed, consistent with previous findings during the first 6 months [4]. Moreover, we compared the incidence of noncancer deaths among patient free from cancer at 5 years in the treatment arm, between patients with planned total cisplatin total doses of 300, 320, 360, and 400 mg/m2. The noncancer mortalities were very similar (log-rank test P = 0.57) with an 8-year incidence of 13%, 11%, 13%, and 6%, respectively. Likewise, no link was found between the cisplatin-associated regimen and the late increase in mortality: among 5-year survivors, the 8-year survival was 0.86 (etoposide) versus 0.87 (vinca alkaloids), with a nonsignificant difference between their subsequent survival (log-rank test P = 0.73). discussion The benefit yielded by cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in the IALT was a reduction in the risk of both local relapses and nonbrain metastases. It had no effect on the risk of brain metastases, probably due to the blood–brain barrier [15]. | Rotolo et al. Besides this antineoplastic activity, cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy had no additional effect on mortality during the first 5 years. In contrast, although cancer events declined after the first 5 years, the risk of noncancer deaths increased in the treatment arm compared with the control arm. This long-term increased risk for treated patients was relatively high (threefold), but only 2% of the controls died of noncancer causes between 5 and 8 years whereas the benefit (a 25% reduction in the risk) concerned cancer events which affected more than 50% of the controls at 8 years. As only 5% of cancer events occurred after 5 years, we assumed that adjuvant chemotherapy exerted a similar effect on them throughout the study. A complementary analysis with separate estimated effects on the two periods did not show any significant difference in the effect of chemotherapy on cancer events over time (data not shown). The risk of each type of relapse changed significantly after the occurrence of other cancer-related events. The risk of metastases increased by 70% after a local relapse. This result was probably due at least to two different phenomena. First, after a local relapse, the physician prescribed additional examinations to detect metastases, Volume 25 | No. 11 | November 2014 original articles Annals of Oncology <5 years s ctr CT v CT Chemotherapy (CT) vs l: ctr l: 1.1 ** .73 0 CT vs ctrl: 1.1 CT vs CT v ctr l: 0 s ctr .79 l: 3.6 ** *** Local relapse DM vs not 0.56* LR vs Brain distant metastasis no t: 2 LR vs not 1.7** 6* bDM vs not: 38*** Distant metastasis Non-brain distant metastasis ** DM vs t: no 40 Death *** nb £ 5 years Figure 2. Summary of results (hazard ratios) regarding the chemotherapy (CT) effect when compared with control (Ctrl) and the effect of events on each other, from the three multistate models: (A) the model for death with intermediate recurrences (solid arrows), which also estimated the residual (=remaining after taking into account the effect of chemotherapy on recurrences) effect of chemotherapy on death, before and after 5 years. (B) The model for local relapse (LR), with nonsimultaneous intermediate distant metastases (DM, dotted arrows). (C) The model for brain and nonbrain metastasis (bDM, nbDM), with nonsimultaneous intermediate local relapse (dashed arrows). Gray-colored HRs are not significantly different from 1 at a 95% level. Black HRs are significantly lower/higher than 1. Significance codes: ***P < 0.001, **0.001 ≤ P < 0.01, *0.01 ≤ P < 0.05. which were therefore diagnosed earlier and more frequently than in patients without a local relapse. Second, a local relapse could itself give rise to new metastases unrelated to the primary cancer. Conversely, the risk of local relapse decreased by 44% after a metastasis. A sensible explanation for this risk reduction is that metastases are so life threatening that physicians focused on immediate patient survival rather than local relapse detection. An increased incidence of second malignancies has been observed in testicular cancer patients treated with cisplatin [16–19], but not in IALT [10]. Therefore, we decided to exclude them from the current analyses. As expected, the risk of death was strongly increased after a cancer-related event. The huge hazard ratios (26, 38, and 40) could have been overestimated because the exact time to death is known, whereas cancer events are diagnosed and recorded later than their onset. Thus, shorter relapse-to-death gaps could lead to an overestimation of the risk of death after relapse. Finally, we observed a lower risk of all recurrences in patients who had undergone a pneumonectomy than those submitted to lobectomy or segmentectomy, but a higher risk of death once the effects on the relapses were taken into account. This suggests that excision of the whole lung reduces the risk of relapse but increases mortality due to other causes, which is consistent with clinical knowledge [20, 21]. The present analysis is the first to employ cutting-edge statistical methods to study the role of adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy in resected NSCLC. Its main results are in accordance with those published earlier [10]. However, the use of multistate models allowed distinguishing the effects of cisplatin, neatly separating its antineoplastic role from the late increase in noncancer mortality. In addition, this methodology enabled us to estimate the impact of cancer events on the risk of subsequent events including death. Our major finding is that adjuvant chemotherapy is effective against local relapses and nonbrain metastases but that it leads to increased noncancer mortality after 5 years. It is well Volume 25 | No. 11 | November 2014 established that patients with resected NSCLC experience excess long-term mortality compared with the general population, probably because of co-morbidities [22]. Nevertheless, this would not explain differential long-term noncancer mortality between treated and control NSCLC patients. In our study, this late overmortality could be an artifact due to the low number of patients in some transitions in the multistate model. However, the results are consistent with previous analyses with simpler methods. Regarding the potential role of postoperative radiotherapy, it was a center choice and then stratified in the randomizing procedure. In addition, we did not find a late deleterious effect related to radiotherapy [10]. Our findings concur with the increased risk of potentially lethal late effects of platinum-based chemotherapy evidenced in large databases on testicular cancer [16–18, 23–24]. A potential toxic effect of cisplatin-based chemotherapy on noncancer deaths was recently evaluated by a literature-based meta-analysis including 6430 NSCLC patients from 16 randomized trials including IALT [25]. Over the whole follow-up period, there was a significant increase (30%) in noncancer mortality in the cisplatin arm but the time of occurrence of the deleterious effect was not studied. When the IALT is excluded, the increased relative risk (RR) remains borderline significant (RR = 1.2; 95% CI 0.99–1.48, P = 0.06) over a median follow-up of 5.4–9.6 years for the three larger studies. Even if this late overmortality only concerns a small percentage of the patients, it will be higher with future potent antineoplastic adjuvant, unless this improvement also includes a decrease in late toxic effects. The optimal situation would be to find tumor markers able to select chemosensitive tumors, and thus better target the subpopulations that are likely to benefit, but until now this research has remained inconclusive [26, 27]. The most plausible explanation for the late overmortality is a long-term toxic effect of cisplatin suggested by published results in NSCLC and other cancers. Nevertheless, the current doi:10.1093/annonc/mdu442 | original articles results are based on a small number of noncancer deaths after 5 years and long-term follow-up in this category of randomized trials is scarce nowadays. Longer and detailed follow-up should therefore be strongly recommended in the ongoing randomized phase III trials evaluating adjuvant NSCLC treatments. acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Lorna Saint Ange for editing. They thank the Steering Committee and all the IALT Collaborators for providing the IALT dataset (supplementary Appendix 1, available at Annals of Oncology online). disclosure The authors have declared no conflicts of interest. references 1. Pisters KMW, Evans WK, Azzoli CG et al. CCO and the ASCO guideline for adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant radiation therapy for stages I-IIIA resectable non-small cell lung cancer. J Clin Oncol 2007; 25: 5506–5518. 2. National Comprehensive Cancer Network. NCCN guidelines version 1.2013, nonsmall cell lung cancer—NCCN guidelines for patients. http://www.nccn.org/ patients/guidelines/nscl/index.html (18 September 2014, date last accessed). 3. The International Adjuvant Lung Cancer Trial Collaborative Group. Cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with completely resected non-small-cell lung cancer. N Engl J Med 2004; 350: 351–360. 4. Pignon JP, Tribodet H, Scagliotti GV et al. Lung adjuvant cisplatin evaluation: a pooled analysis by LACE collaborative group. J Clin Oncol 2008; 26: 3552–3558. 5. Douillard JY, Rosell R, De Lena M et al. Adjuvant vinorelbine plus cisplatin versus observation in patients with completely resected stage IB–IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer (Adjuvant Navelbine International Trialist Association [ANITA]): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet Oncol 2006; 7: 719–727. 6. Scagliotti GV, Fossati R, Torri V et al. 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Butts CA, Ding K, Seymour L et al. Randomized phase III trial of vinorelbine plus cisplatin compared with observation in completely resected stage IB and II non-smallcell lung cancer: updated survival analysis of JBR-10. J Clin Oncol 2010; 28: 29–34. 12. Strauss GM, Herndon JE, Maddaus MA et al. Adjuvant paclitaxel plus carboplatin compared with observation in stage IB non-small-cell lung cancer: CALGB 9633 with the Cancer and Leukemia Group B, Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, and North Central Cancer Treatment Group Study Groups. J Clin Oncol 2008; 26: 5043–5051. 13. Dunant A, Pignon JP, Le Chevalier T. Adjuvant chemotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer: contribution of the International Adjuvant Lung Trial. Clin Cancer Res 2005; 11: 5017s–5021s. 14. Putter H, Fiocco M, Geskus RB. Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multistate models. Stat Med 2007; 26: 2389–2430. 15. Hansen HH. 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J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2000; 119: 814–819. 21. Deslauriers J, Grégoire J, Jacques LF et al. Sleeve lobectomy versus pneumonectomy for lung cancer: a comparative analysis of survival and sites or recurrences. Ann Thorac Surg 2004; 77: 1152–1156. 22. Janssen-Heijnen ML, van Steenbergen LN, Steyerberg E et al. Long-term excess mortality for survivors of non-small cell lung cancer in the Netherlands. J Thorac Oncol 2012; 7: 496–502. 23. Meinardi MT, Gietema JA, van der Graaf WT et al. Cardiovascular morbidity in long-term survivors of metastatic testicular cancer. J Clin Oncol 2000; 18: 1725–1732. 24. Fosså SD, Gilbert E, Dores GM et al. Noncancer causes of death in survivors of testicular cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 2007; 99: 533–544. 25. Petrelli F, Barni S. Non-cancer-related mortality after cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer a study-level meta-analysis of 16 randomized trials. Med Oncol 2013; 30: 641. 26. Olaussen KA, Dunant A, Fouret P et al. DNA repair by ERCC1 in non–small-cell lung cancer and cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy. N Engl J Med 2006; 355 (10): 983–91. 27. Friboulet L, Olaussen KA, Pignon JP et al. ERCC1 Isoform Expression and DNA Repair in Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer. N Engl J Med 2013; 368(12): 1101–1110. Volume 25 | No. 11 | November 2014