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Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges 7 May – 12 May 2012 CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador Long-term Monitoring of Temperature in Coral Reef Waters of the Colombian Caribbean Marko Tošić & Raúl Navas-Camacho Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras “José Benito Vives De Andréis” Vinculado al Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible - MADS Santa Marta, Colombia Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges 7 May – 12 May 2012 CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador Contents 1. Introduction of data used 2. Historical tendencies of temperature 3. Relation with bleaching events 4. Case Study: Chengue Bay 5. Calcultion of coral thresholds 6. Conclusions Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges 7 May – 12 May 2012 CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (INVEMAR) “José Benito Vives De Andréis” Vinculado al Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Santa Marta, Colombia Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges 7 May – 12 May 2012 CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador Data used in this study: 1. REDCAM Monitoring Program 2. SIMAC Monitoring Program 3. NOAA • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 • Coral Reef Watch Monitoring Network for Marine and Coastal Water Quality - REDCAM STATIONS CARIBBEAN : 236 PACIFIC: 122 TOTAL: 358 PARAMETERS (~25) Tem, Sal, pH, DO Nutrients Microbiological Hydrocarbons Sediments 5 Pesticides Heavy Metals Monitoring Network for Marine and Coastal Water Quality - REDCAM INVEMAR 18/05/2012 SALIDA DE INFORMACIÓN Capacity Building ENTRADA DE INFORMACIÓN Database Management Nodos de la REDCAM Otras Otrasentidades entidades Salidas de campo Información secundaria Información primaria Almacenamiento de datos en archivo digital BASE DE DATOS 4 15% Laboratorio LaboratorioSIG SIG Mapas 3 15% Tablas 1 40% Gráficos 2 30% 6 Interfaz construida Interfazdel delusuario usuario construida con herramientas Oracle Consultas Interfaz del usuario construida con herramientas HTML-JAVA National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - SIMAC • Health status of coral reefs • Changes in coral reefs and causes • Recomendations for sustainable use and conservation SIMAC Monitoring Program Benthic organism coverage using point-intecept transects Ocurrence of bleaching and diseases Richness and abundance of reef fish Presence y abundance of urchins and other invertebrates Abundance of gorgonians NOAA’s NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 Temp. Data: 1950 – 2010 Increases: 0.3 - 0.4 °C Rate: 0.006 °C/y La Niña El Niño y = 0.000x + 27.96 R² = 0.002 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 Isla San Andres - Promedios Mensuales Temperature (C) 30.5 29.5 28.5 27.5 26.5 25.5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201 Year y = 0.000x + 28.40 R² = 0.021 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 Isla Tesoro - Promedios Mensuales Temperature (C) 30 29 28 27 26 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201 Historical Coral Bleaching Events in Colombia Colpophyllia natans Montastraea faveolata Diploria strigosa Historical Record of Temperature in Marine Waters of the Colombian Caribbean Avg Caribe Hist Avg Dept Temperature (C) 32 30 Temperature (C) 31.0 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.0 28 26 24 Temp. Data: 2000 – 2011 Increases: 0.3 °C Rate: 0.03 °C/y Historical Record of Temperature in Marine Waters of the Colombian Caribbean 34 Dry Season Rainy Season Temperature (C) 32 30 28 26 24 Department (West-East) The Guajira Upwelling System February 2006 Mini-Curso: Monitoreo de calidad de aguas en playas turísticas December 2005 from: Andrade & Barton 2005 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 Aeropuerto Alcatraces Chengue BahíaAeropuerto Concha BahiaAlcatraces Bahía Chengue Boya 2 Concha Bahia 10) Cabotaje (calle Boya 2 canal Escollera Cabotaje (calle 10) Emisario 8 canal Escollera F. Buritaca Emisario 8 F. Cordoba F. Buritaca F. Costa Verde F. Cordoba Don Diego Verde F.F.Costa Gaira F. F. Don Diego F. Guachaca F. Gaira F. Manzanares F. Guachaca F. Piedras F. Manzanares Piedras F.F.Toribio F. Toribio P. Batallón P. Blanca P. Batallón P. Blanca P. Mendihuaca P.P.Mendihuaca Municipal P. Municipal P. Neguanje P. Neguanje P. Rodadero P. Rodadero P. Salguero P. Salguero P.P.Taganga Taganga Parque Acuático ParqueAcuático Playa Grande PlayaGrande Colorados Pozos Pozos Colorados puente 22 Calle22 puenteCalle T1 TagangaT1 Taganga Temperature (C) Historical Record of Temperature in Marine Waters of the Department of Magdalena 31 Dry Season Rainy Season 1 (Seca) 1 (Seca) 29 29 27 25 23 Stations Historical Record of Temperature in Marine Waters of Tayrona Park 32 Tayrona - Anual Averages Temperature (C) 31 30 29 Bahía Chengue 28 Bahia Concha 27 P. Neguanje 26 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Chengue Bay Tayrona National Natural Park Watershed: Area: 8 km2, natural Live Coral Coverage: 27.05% Number of Coral Species: 30 sp Predominant Species: Montastraea faveolata, Colpophyllia natans Montastraea annularis Diploria strigosa Ecosistemas: • Manglares • Pastos marinos (Thalassia) • Corales • Fondos blandos • Litoral rocoso Chengue Bay Bleaching Events Bahía de Chengue Incidencia en % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 BLANQUEAMIENTO Montastraea faveolata La Niña 2010: • Temperature (30 °C) • Salinity (30 ppt) • Turbidity 2006 2008 2010 ENFERMEDAD 2012 Chengue Bay Historical Temperature Records Max Average Linear (Average) 31 30 28 y = 0.061x + 25.92 R² = 0.237 27 26 25 24 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 31 29 Temperature (C) Data Logger: • Hourly • 1994 – 2010 • Rate: 0.06 °C/y Temperature (C) 29 27 25 23 21 19 Min Promedio Max 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Chengue Bay Historical Temperature Records Increase: 0.8 °C Rate: 0.05 °C/y Monthly Averages Average Min Max Linear (Average) Linear (Min) Linear (Max) 30 y = 0.004x + 28.19 R² = 0.169 29 27 y = 0.004x + 25.88 R² = 0.033 26 25 24 y = 0.004x + 23.69 R² = 0.063 23 22 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 21 1994 Temperature (C) 28 Febrero Junio Octubre Febrero Junio Octubre Febrero Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Noviembre Marzo Julio Diciembre Mayo Septiembre Enero Chengue Bay Historical Temperature Records El Niño Max 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 La Niña Average 31 30.5 30 29.5 29 28.5 28 27.5 27 26.5 26 25.5 25 24.5 24 23.5 23 22.5 22 21.5 21 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 Coral Temperatura Thresholds Bleaching Risk -Temp Intensity -Duration Promedio Mensuales 31 from: Marshall and Shuttenberg 2006 30 29 28 27 Temp Anomaly: Degrees above maximum monthly average. 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Coral Temperatura Thresholds Bleaching Event 2010 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) = Σ Anomaly x # weeks DHW > 4 High stress DHW > 8 Chengue Bay - Temperature 2010 32 31 30 Temperature (C) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Date Severe bleaching Coral Temperatura Thresholds Bleaching Event 2010 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) = Σ Anomaly x # weeks DHW > 4 High stress DHW > 8 Severe bleaching 2005 2010 2005 2010 from: NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Coral Temperatura Thresholds Observational Data: - Max Temp - # Days Max Temp vs Number of Days Year 140 Number of Days 120 100 80 60 y = 54x 2 - 3281.x + 49844 R² = 0.843 40 20 0 29 29.5 30 Temperature (C) 30.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 Number of Days > 29.0 > 29.5 > 30.0 > 30.5 44 22 5 3 7 32 29 9 19 10 9 45 37 90 10 1 29 1 55 12 1 59 2 117 72 17 1 Coral Temperatura Thresholds Laboratory Experiments Effect (# Weeks): 3 2 1 4 From: López Londoño et al. 2011 Conclusions • Temporal data show increases in temperature at regional (0.006 - 0.03 °C/y) and local scales (0.06 °C/y). • Spatial variation of temperature along the Caribbean coast of Colombia, highlighted by strong seasonal variation in the eastern provinces. • While climatic phenomena can affect sea surface temperature, local procesos (eg. upwelling) may have greater effect. • Predictive tools provided by NOAA were shown to be effective in identification of coral bleaching risks. • Precision of bleaching-temperature relationship at local scale is recommended. • Predictive tools, however useful, are limited by their lack of incorporation of other factors (eg. Light intensity, sedimentation, salinity, etc.) Acknowledgements • REDCAM, SIMAC, NOAA, INAP • Beatriz Almonacil, David Alonso, Luisa F. Espinosa, Diana Isabel Gomez, Kelly Gomez Campo, Carolina Gutierrez, Tomas Londoño Lopez, Laura Perdomo, Johanna Vega Sequeda, Lizbeth Janet Vivas Aguas • Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges. Gracias por su atención [email protected]