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Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on
Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas:
Research experiences and new scientific challenges
7 May – 12 May 2012
CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Long-term Monitoring of Temperature
in Coral Reef Waters of the
Colombian Caribbean
Marko Tošić &
Raúl Navas-Camacho
Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras
“José Benito Vives De Andréis”
Vinculado al Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible - MADS
Santa Marta, Colombia
Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on
Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas:
Research experiences and new scientific challenges
7 May – 12 May 2012
CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Contents
1. Introduction of data used
2. Historical tendencies of temperature
3. Relation with bleaching events
4. Case Study: Chengue Bay
5. Calcultion of coral thresholds
6. Conclusions
Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on
Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas:
Research experiences and new scientific challenges
7 May – 12 May 2012
CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (INVEMAR)
“José Benito Vives De Andréis”
Vinculado al Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible
Santa Marta, Colombia
Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on
Climate Change in Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas:
Research experiences and new scientific challenges
7 May – 12 May 2012
CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Data used in this study:
1. REDCAM Monitoring Program
2. SIMAC Monitoring Program
3. NOAA
•
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1
•
Coral Reef Watch
Monitoring Network for Marine and
Coastal Water Quality - REDCAM
STATIONS
CARIBBEAN : 236
PACIFIC: 122
TOTAL: 358
PARAMETERS (~25)
Tem, Sal, pH, DO
Nutrients
Microbiological
Hydrocarbons
Sediments
5
Pesticides
Heavy Metals
Monitoring Network for Marine and
Coastal Water Quality - REDCAM
INVEMAR 18/05/2012
SALIDA DE INFORMACIÓN
Capacity Building
ENTRADA DE INFORMACIÓN
Database Management
Nodos de la REDCAM
Otras
Otrasentidades
entidades
Salidas de campo
Información secundaria
Información primaria
Almacenamiento de datos en archivo digital
BASE DE DATOS
4
15%
Laboratorio
LaboratorioSIG
SIG
Mapas
3
15%
Tablas
1
40%
Gráficos
2
30%
6
Interfaz
construida
Interfazdel
delusuario
usuario
construida
con herramientas Oracle
Consultas
Interfaz del usuario
construida con
herramientas HTML-JAVA
National System for Coral Reef Monitoring
in Colombia - SIMAC
• Health status of coral
reefs
• Changes in coral reefs
and causes
• Recomendations for
sustainable use and
conservation
SIMAC
Monitoring
Program
Benthic organism coverage using
point-intecept transects
Ocurrence of bleaching and
diseases
Richness and abundance of reef
fish
Presence y abundance of
urchins and other
invertebrates
Abundance of gorgonians
NOAA’s NCEP/NCAR
Reanalysis 1
Temp. Data: 1950 – 2010
Increases: 0.3 - 0.4 °C
Rate: 0.006 °C/y
La Niña
El Niño
y = 0.000x + 27.96
R² = 0.002
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1
Isla San Andres - Promedios Mensuales
Temperature (C)
30.5
29.5
28.5
27.5
26.5
25.5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
201
Year
y = 0.000x + 28.40
R² = 0.021
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1
Isla Tesoro - Promedios Mensuales
Temperature (C)
30
29
28
27
26
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
201
Historical Coral Bleaching Events
in Colombia
Colpophyllia natans
Montastraea faveolata
Diploria strigosa
Historical Record of Temperature in Marine
Waters of the Colombian Caribbean
Avg Caribe
Hist Avg Dept
Temperature (C)
32
30
Temperature (C)
31.0
30.0
29.0
28.0
27.0
28
26
24
Temp. Data: 2000 – 2011
Increases: 0.3 °C
Rate: 0.03 °C/y
Historical Record of Temperature in Marine
Waters of the Colombian Caribbean
34
Dry Season
Rainy Season
Temperature (C)
32
30
28
26
24
Department (West-East)
The Guajira Upwelling System
February 2006
Mini-Curso:
Monitoreo de calidad de aguas en playas turísticas
December 2005
from: Andrade &
Barton 2005
30
28
27
26
25
24
23
Aeropuerto
Alcatraces
Chengue
BahíaAeropuerto
Concha
BahiaAlcatraces
Bahía Chengue
Boya 2
Concha
Bahia
10)
Cabotaje (calle
Boya 2
canal Escollera
Cabotaje (calle 10)
Emisario 8
canal Escollera
F. Buritaca
Emisario 8
F. Cordoba
F. Buritaca
F. Costa Verde
F. Cordoba
Don Diego
Verde
F.F.Costa
Gaira
F.
F. Don Diego
F. Guachaca
F. Gaira
F. Manzanares
F. Guachaca
F. Piedras
F. Manzanares
Piedras
F.F.Toribio
F. Toribio
P. Batallón
P.
Blanca
P. Batallón
P. Blanca
P. Mendihuaca
P.P.Mendihuaca
Municipal
P. Municipal
P. Neguanje
P. Neguanje
P. Rodadero
P. Rodadero
P. Salguero
P. Salguero
P.P.Taganga
Taganga
Parque
Acuático
ParqueAcuático
Playa
Grande
PlayaGrande
Colorados
Pozos
Pozos Colorados
puente
22
Calle22
puenteCalle
T1
TagangaT1
Taganga
Temperature (C)
Historical Record of Temperature in Marine
Waters of the Department of Magdalena
31
Dry Season
Rainy Season
1 (Seca)
1 (Seca)
29
29
27
25
23
Stations
Historical Record of Temperature in Marine
Waters of Tayrona Park
32
Tayrona - Anual Averages
Temperature (C)
31
30
29
Bahía Chengue
28
Bahia Concha
27
P. Neguanje
26
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Chengue Bay
Tayrona National Natural Park
Watershed:
Area: 8 km2, natural
Live Coral Coverage: 27.05%
Number of Coral Species: 30 sp
Predominant Species: Montastraea faveolata,
Colpophyllia natans
Montastraea annularis
Diploria strigosa
Ecosistemas:
• Manglares
• Pastos marinos (Thalassia)
• Corales
• Fondos blandos
• Litoral rocoso
Chengue Bay
Bleaching Events
Bahía de Chengue
Incidencia en %
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
BLANQUEAMIENTO
Montastraea faveolata
La Niña 2010:
• Temperature (30 °C)
• Salinity (30 ppt)
• Turbidity
2006
2008
2010
ENFERMEDAD
2012
Chengue Bay
Historical Temperature Records
Max
Average
Linear (Average)
31
30
28
y = 0.061x + 25.92
R² = 0.237
27
26
25
24
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
31
29
Temperature (C)
Data Logger:
• Hourly
• 1994 – 2010
• Rate: 0.06 °C/y
Temperature (C)
29
27
25
23
21
19
Min
Promedio
Max
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Chengue Bay
Historical Temperature Records
Increase: 0.8 °C
Rate: 0.05 °C/y
Monthly Averages
Average
Min
Max
Linear (Average)
Linear (Min)
Linear (Max)
30
y = 0.004x + 28.19
R² = 0.169
29
27
y = 0.004x + 25.88
R² = 0.033
26
25
24
y = 0.004x + 23.69
R² = 0.063
23
22
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
21
1994
Temperature (C)
28
Febrero
Junio
Octubre
Febrero
Junio
Octubre
Febrero
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Noviembre
Marzo
Julio
Diciembre
Mayo
Septiembre
Enero
Chengue Bay
Historical Temperature Records
El Niño
Max
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
La Niña
Average
31
30.5
30
29.5
29
28.5
28
27.5
27
26.5
26
25.5
25
24.5
24
23.5
23
22.5
22
21.5
21
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20102011
Coral Temperatura Thresholds
Bleaching Risk
-Temp Intensity
-Duration
Promedio Mensuales
31
from: Marshall and Shuttenberg 2006
30
29
28
27
Temp Anomaly: Degrees
above maximum monthly
average.
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
Enero
Febrero
Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto
Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
Coral Temperatura Thresholds
Bleaching Event 2010
Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) = Σ Anomaly x # weeks
DHW > 4 High stress
DHW > 8
Chengue Bay - Temperature 2010
32
31
30
Temperature (C)
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
Date
Severe bleaching
Coral Temperatura Thresholds
Bleaching Event 2010
Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) = Σ Anomaly x # weeks
DHW > 4 High stress
DHW > 8
Severe bleaching
2005
2010
2005
2010
from: NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Coral Temperatura Thresholds
Observational Data:
- Max Temp
- # Days
Max Temp vs Number of Days
Year
140
Number of Days
120
100
80
60
y = 54x 2 - 3281.x + 49844
R² = 0.843
40
20
0
29
29.5
30
Temperature (C)
30.5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
Number of Days
> 29.0 > 29.5 > 30.0 > 30.5
44
22
5
3
7
32
29
9
19
10
9
45
37
90
10
1
29
1
55
12
1
59
2
117
72
17
1
Coral Temperatura Thresholds
Laboratory Experiments
Effect
(# Weeks):
3
2
1
4
From:
López Londoño et al. 2011
Conclusions
• Temporal data show increases in temperature at regional (0.006 - 0.03 °C/y) and
local scales (0.06 °C/y).
• Spatial variation of temperature along the Caribbean coast of Colombia,
highlighted by strong seasonal variation in the eastern provinces.
• While climatic phenomena can affect sea surface temperature, local procesos
(eg. upwelling) may have greater effect.
• Predictive tools provided by NOAA were shown to be effective in identification of
coral bleaching risks.
• Precision of bleaching-temperature relationship at local scale is recommended.
• Predictive tools, however useful, are limited by their lack of incorporation of
other factors (eg. Light intensity, sedimentation, salinity, etc.)
Acknowledgements
•
REDCAM, SIMAC, NOAA, INAP
•
Beatriz Almonacil, David Alonso, Luisa F. Espinosa, Diana Isabel Gomez,
Kelly Gomez Campo, Carolina Gutierrez, Tomas Londoño Lopez, Laura
Perdomo, Johanna Vega Sequeda, Lizbeth Janet Vivas Aguas
•
Joint ICTP-TWAS Workshop on Climate Change in Mediterranean and
Caribbean Seas: Research experiences and new scientific challenges.
Gracias por su atención
[email protected]