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Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth “Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” (Benjamin Franklin, in a letter to Jean-Baptiste Leroy, 1789) Death and taxes—two subjects about which most humans have little enthusiasm. Complaining about taxes comes as naturally to most as complaining about bad weather. The United States finds itself at a time when there is mounting evidence our national economy is not firing on all cylinders and our democratic form of government takes on more of what looks like an endless food fight. The poor functioning of the economy and gridlock in the political system call into question any confident defense of “American exceptionalism”. When it comes to government, most Americans hold two contradictory views. They expect government to provide an array of high quality public goods and services and they want lower taxes. It is easy to find a large majority favoring cutting governmental spending in general but majorities vanish when it comes to cutting specific programs. Political parties also say they want to provide high quality public goods and reduce funding in certain programs but quibble endlessly over which ones. Other highly developed countries have been wrestling with similar economic and political challenges. The lack of interest displayed by many political, business and cultural leaders in what other successful democracies with market economies are doing is bewildering. Would not a poorly performing NFL franchise wishing to improve look at what successful franchises like Denver, Green Bay, New England, Seattle and San Francisco are doing? In the nation’s recent long-winded and at times petulant discussion of health care and concern about mounting health care costs, it is difficult to explain why no serious consideration was given to a single-payer option. Most other developed countries have a single-payer option and achieve health care outcomes matching or exceeding those in the U.S. and at much lower per capita costs. You might think serious politicians and beleaguered taxpayers would at least be interested in taking a closer look at what competing countries are doing to achieve such results. U.S. rankings have been falling in recent decades on health, education, economic and other quality of life measures as countries once ranked below the U.S. have caught and passed it. Once considered the wealthiest country, a number of countries have passed the U.S. in terms of median individual and household wealth. This would suggest “American exceptionalism” is tarnishing. As this discussion of tax reform reveals, other highly developed countries have struck a different balance in providing public and private goods and reaching political consensus. Since public goods and services rely on funds through taxation, these other developed countries have taxed themselves at higher rates than the U.S. America seems to be charting a different path but one which has led to a more economic and politically polarized and less successful country. Tax reform will be an essential undertaking to return the nation to John Patterson Page 1 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth a path of shared prosperity. This report attempts to provide a rationale and offers directions such tax reform should take to achieve this goal. Before offering suggestions as to the kind of tax reform the United States should pursue, it is important to consider salient post-World War II trends which provide useful background, context and guidance for the nation’s deliberations. Rich Get Richer Shared Prosperity Figure 1: Changes in Family Income Distribution, 1947-2011 Figure 2: Average After-Tax Income by Income Groups, 1979-2007 Tax reform which moves the nation back to the “shared prosperity track” the nation enjoyed from 1947 to 1979 and away from the “rich get richer track” since 1979 should be a major goal of tax reform and other public policies as well. Figure 1 and Figure 4 reveal that up to 1979 family incomes rose by similar rates for all income categories; in other words all income groups shared equitably in terms of rate of growth in income gains. Since the late 1970s things changed dramatically and higher income groups, actually the very rich, benefitted much more from economic growth and have enjoyed much higher rates of income gains than the bottom 80 percent of the population, as indicated in Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4. In considering tax reform, how were tax rates and policies different in the shared prosperity and rich get richer periods? A more progressive tax system prevailed during share prosperity. Figure 3 shows the tax system has become less progressive, particularly so during the Reagan and Bush I administrations, becoming a bit more progressive under Clinton and then turning less progressive again under Bush II. From 1960 to 2004 tax rates for the upper middle and middle income categories remained relatively Figure 3: Tax Rates by Income Group, 1960-2004 constant while the rate for the lower 40 percent declined modestly. Clearly, the top 1 percent enjoyed the largest reduction in tax rates since 1960. Even the top 10 percent experienced little John Patterson Page 2 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth change. For whatever reasons, the tax system in the U.S. has skewed overtime in favor of very wealthy individuals and corporations. Figure 4 displays vividly the radically different results during the shared prosperity period from 1947 to 1979 and since 1979 with respect to average annual income gains by quintile income groups and the top 1%. Even though actual income gains (in dollars) were larger for successively higher income groups, the average yearly percentage gains were slightly higher for the first four quintile income groups from 1947-1979. This would tend to provide some support for those claiming that in a growing Figure 4: Average Annual Income Gains by Quintile economy benefits did trickle down to lower income groups, thus supporting the argument all boats rose with the tide of economic growth. Clearly, a strong middle class was being created. As Figure 5 shows, percentage increases from 1947-79 were 119, 100 and 72 percent respectively for productivity, compensation and wages. However, the trend in annual income gains since 1979 paints a very different and troubling picture. It is as if some seismic shift occurred throwing the nation’s economy off the shared prosperity track. A strong and broad middle class and the avenues for upward mobility created during the shared prosperity period seemingly vanished. In the rich get richer period annual income gains have risen slightly for successively higher income quintiles but at puny rates when compared to the shared prosperity period (Figure 4). In an economy driven by consumption, that such a wide swath of the nation’s households has not Figure 5: Productivity, Compensation and Wages since 1947 experienced notable economic gains in over thirty years has been damaging. Only the top 1% experienced income gains at rates comparable to those achieved in the shared prosperity period. Clearly, the economic benefits which had been trickling down to lower income groups on the shared prosperity track have dried up and been replaced by a gushing up of the benefits of economic growth in the economy to primarily the wealthy and bypassing the middle and lower classes. All boats are no longer rising with the tide, only the yachts and luxury liners. It is clear the income gains enjoyed by the highest income groups in a real sense were gained at the expense of lower income groups for whom tax rates did not decline and real pretax income did not rise as for wealthier groups. During the shared prosperity period workers’ wages grew with productivity gains while during the rich get richer period productivity gains did John Patterson Page 3 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth not lead to increases in workers’ wages. Since 1980 a productivity gain of 80 percent has been matched by puny gains of 8 percent in compensation and 7 percent in wages. Benefits from productivity gains have gone increasingly to rich households and corporations. Whereas all income groups did well during the shared prosperity period, only the wealthiest income groups have prospered in the rich get richer period. It is obvious a majority of the American people would favor tax reform and other policies aimed at returning our nation to the shared prosperity track where the rich continue to do well but all income groups prospered as well. The rich will and should get their just rewards but not at the expense of most individuals and households in the U.S. (Figure 4 and Figure 5). Myths about Taxes and False Assumptions There are several myths and false assumptions about taxes and taxation which must be dispelled before any productive discussion about tax reform is possible. They are: Myth 1: Taxes in the United States are too high and Americans are overtaxed. The effective tax rate (federal, state and local) in the U.S. is considerably lower than in all other highly developed Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Total taxes as a percent of Figure 6: Total 2009 Taxes as a % of GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 show the U.S. rate about 24.8% compared with an average of 33.4% for all other OECD countries (Figure 6). If the U.S. wants to compare itself with less developed countries like Mexico okay, but when compared with other highly developed countries and democracies there is no evidence U.S. taxes are too high. They are actually lower. Myth 2: Corporate taxes in the United States are too high and should be reduced. It is true the statutory corporate tax in the U.S. is the highest for OECD countries (39% recently), but with tax breaks, allowed deductions and other preferences extended by legislation few corporations pay the statutory rate. The effective corporate tax rate tells a different story. Figure 7 reveals the effective corporate tax rate in the U.S. (average of 13.4% from 2000-2005) is among the lowest for OECD countries. When one also considers the Figure 7: Effective Corporate Tax Rate OECD Countries corporate tax as a share of GDP was lower than all other OECD countries except Iceland in John Patterson Page 4 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth 2009, has been declining and is less than two percent of GDP (Figure 8), one has to question those continuing to claim vociferously that corporate taxes are too high. Myth 3: Lower taxes will promote economic growth and higher taxes will stifle growth. Since this myth is promoted most ardently by Republicans, one might suspect economic growth as measured by job creation would be more impressive when Republicans control the White House. Figure 9, compiled from tabular data on a Wall Street Journal blog, reveals from Truman through Bush II the economy created more jobs, about a million jobs a year more when Democrats Figure 8: Corporate Income Tax as a Share of GDP, 1946-2009 occupied the White House. As shown in Figure 10, virtually all marginal tax rates were higher in the shared prosperity than in the rich get richer period. Claims that lower tax rates lead to higher economic growth benefitting all income groups is a faith-based conclusion which is not supported by evidence. Myth 4: Federal taxes are too high and cutting taxes is the best way to curb yearly Figure 9: Number of Jobs Created per Year by Administration deficits and a mounting national debt. False Assumption: The Republican Party today behaves in any way comparable with the Republican Party of twenty or more years ago and thus the “both sides do it” argument often cited by the media is correct. It takes little courage for politicians to favor reducing taxes and cutting spending. This is music to the ears of taxpayers who always see themselves as beleaguered and over taxed, even if evidence for such is lacking. This probably explains more than anything why federal tax revenues have fallen short of federal expenditures as a percentage of GDP fifty-eight of sixty-nine years since 1946 or Figure 10: Top Marginal Tax Rates, 1916-2010 84% of the time. Since federal spending which occurs is based on legislation passed by Congress John Patterson Page 5 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth and approved by the president, it is more accurate to say government programs are systematically underfunded and thus yearly deficits and mounting national debt are the norm. Figure 11 provides average federal revenues, expenditures and deficits for the Truman through Obama first-term presidency. No post-war president inherited the size and scope of economic problems Obama faced on entering office. Obama’s first-term called for responding to the deepest recession since the Great Depression and federal expenditures rose and federal revenues fell to post WWII lows as a percentage of GDP. Thus the higher deficits under Obama were explained by both expenditures increasing and revenues decreasing. Prior to Obama the Reagan administration presided over the highest expenditure as percentage of GDP, averaging 22.4% for his eight years in office. Reagan ran the highest yearly deficits as a percentage of GDP until Obama’s first-term. Obama’s deficits as a percentage of GDP are falling to Reagan levels; the budget deficit was 4% of GDP in 2013 which is below the average yearly budget deficit under Reagan of 4.22%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit for 2014 will fall below 3% of GDP. So Ronald Reagan’s presidency sustained the largest post-World War II deficits as a percentage of GDP. Figure 11: Average Federal Revenues, Expenditures and Deficits as a Percentage of GDP by Presidential Administration Administration Truman (4 years) Eisenhower (8 years) Kennedy-Johnson (8 years) Nixon-Ford (8 years) Carter (4 years) Reagan (8 years) Bush I (4 years) Clinton (8 years) Bush II (8 years) Obama (4 years) REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS (including Obama) (excluding Obama) Revenues 16.00% 17.53% 17.64% 18.10% 18.40% 18.18% 17.93% 19.03% 17.61% 15.35% 17.87% 17.28%* 17.76%* Expenditures 15.90% 18.10% 18.65% 19.74% 20.80% 22.40% 21.88% 19.82% 19.51% 24.05% 20.33% 19.84%* 18.79%* Deficits +0.10% -0.57% -1.01% -1.64% -2.40% -4.22% - 3.95% - 0 .79% -1.90% -8.70% -2.46% -2.76%* -1.03%* *Averages not weighted by number of years in office. Since Republicans are forever harkening back to the “morning in America” under Reagan, the initial federal target for taxes to raise sufficient revenues should be 22.4% of GDP, the expenditure rate under Reagan rather than his 18.18% average level which led to large deficits and mounting federal debt. The recent track record of Republican administrations in curbing deficits and the national debt when they occupy the White House is very poor as Figure 12 reveals. One Figure 12: Percentage Increase in National Debt would think their criticism of Obama when it comes to deficits and debt might have some compelling evidence to back them up. But much of John Patterson Page 6 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth today’s Republican Party operates in an evidence-free zone. When in office Republicans have employed “borrow and spend” practices driving up deficits and debt while having the temerity to chastise Democrats as “tax and spenders.” Setting taxes at rates which cover spending authorized by Congress is fiscally prudent and more responsible than having to borrow to cover spending. Today’s Republican Party talks fiscal discipline when not occupying the White House but shows little fiscal discipline when they are in charge. This Jekyll and Hyde approach to governing is a large impediment to reaching consensus and compromise on so many issues in Washington. The often heard Republican complaint that forty percent of federal government spending relies on borrowing from other countries might be taken seriously if the party’s “never raise taxes to pay for the bills the nation has incurred” and “threats to renege on the nation’s debt by refusing to raise the debt limit” stances were not contributing to more borrowing and more debt. “The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.” This is a conclusion in a recent book authored by Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein who have observed and commented on Washington politics for over forty years. They further conclude the ““Both sides do it” or “There is plenty of blame to go around” are the traditional refuges for an American news media intent on proving its lack of bias, while political scientists prefer generality and neutrality when discussing partisan polarization. Many self-styled bipartisan groups, in their search for common ground, propose solutions that move both sides to the center, a strategy that is simply untenable when one side is so far out of reach.” Mitch McConnell’s candid statement, “……my number one priority is making sure president Obama’s a one-term president,” conveys a level of brazenness in the party’s partisan goals unheard of in past decades. Even the insurgency led by New Gingrich which was highly critical of Bill Clinton found ways of cooperating with the president and passing meaningful legislation on a bipartisan basis. Even though it is often said “politics is the art of compromise,” Republicans calling for compromise with Obama have been cast into the political wilderness and castigated as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only). The need to stimulate the economy via government spending to recover from recessions has been accepted gospel until today’s Republican Party’s lurch to the right. A large number of Republicans in Congress had no difficulty voting for stimulus plans when Reagan and Bush II occupied the White House but only three Republicans in the Senate voted for Obama’s stimulus package to address the nation’s most significant economic challenge since the Great Depression, even though it included the party’s magic elixir—tax cuts (Figure 13). John Patterson Page 7 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth Figure 13: Congressional Support for Stimulus Plans Offered by Four Presidents Amount ($ billions) SENATE Democrats Republicans HOUSE of REPS Democrats Republicans Reagan (1981) $1,768* 89 37 52 323 133 190 Clinton (1993) $736* 51 51 0 218 218 0 Bush (2001) $1,635* 58 12 46 240 28 212 *Amount expressed in billions of 2009 dollars for comparison purposes. Obama (2009) $787* 60 57 3 246 246 0 A total of 3 of out of over 280 Republican members of Congress voted for Obama’s stimulus package and no Republicans voted for Clinton’s package. Conversely, neither of the Reagan or Bush II stimulus packages would have passed without significant support by Democrats in Congress. Note, also the Reagan and Bush II packages were over twice the size in 2009 dollars as either the Clinton or Obama packages. And yet Republicans contended the Obama package was extravagant and much too big even though the recession was the deepest since the Great Depression. Today’s Republican Party pans stimulus spending. The Republican Party of decades ago, as most economists, accepted the role played by government “pump priming” spending to retard further deterioration in the economy and promote growth. The media pretense that “both sides do it” may have been accurate when the Republican Party had firm principles on which some of its policies were based, policies that did not change because the party happened to occupy the White House. We have moved into a “one side does it more than the other side” era and the fact so much of the media does not comprehend this reality has only emboldened the Republican Party in becoming more intemperate in its rhetoric and more extreme in its policies. The extent to which the Republican Party has unhinged from its traditional conservative moorings is captured in a quote from a St. Louis Post Dispatch editorial of June 26, 2011. “Today we have the spectacle of smart, patriotic men and women putting their brains and integrity on ice to please a party dominated by anti-intellectual social Darwinists and the plutocrats who finance and mislead them.” To dismiss this admittedly harsh sounding conclusion, one needs to explain the drift, actually the lurch, of the Republican Party to the right as a normal occurrence for a political party in a country where only two parties dominate. The lurch is not normal and the Republican Party is not behaving normally. Any political party that can celebrate over fifty attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and at no time provide a thoughtful alternative speaks to the trouble our two-party political system is in. To pretend otherwise is to preclude developing any bipartisan consensus required to deal effectively with significant problems facing the nation. John Patterson Page 8 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth Top Priorities for Tax Reform with Shared Prosperity as the Goal The priorities listed below are not discussed in detail but are intended to be suggestive of the types of reform and modifications which should be considered to return to the postWorld War II shared prosperity path from which the national economy was diverted in the late 1970s. The rich get richer path since 1980 is moving the country backward and eroding the once solid base on which a broad and prosperous middle class was established and those not yet in the middle class saw within reach and shedding public policies assisting many lower income Americans in reaching the middle class. 1. Simplify the tax code. The only downside of simplifying the tax code is finding other jobs for all the people employed in assisting individuals and companies to sift through the endless morass our tax code has become. If some civilization in the distant future should dig through ruins and find the U.S. tax code, it will likely wish this once vibrant civilization had never invented writing. 2. Return to a more progressive tax system like the one that existed for thirty years after World War II during the shared prosperity period when income, corporate and capital gains taxes were higher and displayed greater progressivity than today. 3. The less and less progressive shift in the nation’s tax system, as revealed in Figure 3, should be arrested and reform should move toward the higher rates in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s when all economic groups benefitted from economic growth as revealed in Figures 1 & 4. 4. A priority has to be assigned to government programs, policies and spending likely to advance democratic capitalism principles, reduce income inequality and return the U.S. to the shared prosperity path it achieved from the late 1940s to late 1970s. “Democratic capitalism, also known as capitalist democracy, is a political, economic, and social system and ideology based on a tripartite arrangement of a market-based economy based predominantly on a democratic policy, economic incentives through free markets, fiscal responsibility and a liberal moral-cultural system which encourages pluralism. This economic system supports a capitalist free market economy subject to control by a democratic political system that is supported by the majority. It stands in contrast to authoritarian capitalism by limiting the influence of special interest groups, including corporate lobbyists, on politics.”(Wikipedia) Though not a taxing policy per se, raising the minimum wage is consistent with democratic capitalism. Refusing to increase the minimum wage has especially adverse consequences on lower income individuals and households and retards an economy very dependent on consumption. John Patterson Page 9 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth 5. The total effective tax rate in the United States should move higher in the direction of all other highly developed OECD countries. The total effective tax rate in the U.S. is lower than for all but two of the other OECD countries (Figure 5). Whereas the U.S. had the 16th highest total effective tax rate for OECD countries in 1979, it had dropped to 32nd in 2010. This indicates overall tax rates in other OECD countries have gone up while those in the U.S. have declined. 6. To guard against deficits and debt and balance the budget, it is desirable to raise federal revenues as a percentage of GDP to or slightly above anticipated federal spending as a percentage of GDP. The fact politicians find it easy to reduce taxes but difficult to cut spending to balance the federal budget is why the nation has run deficits in most years since World War II. Interest payments on the national debt have ranged between 1.5 and 3.5 percent of GDP over the last forty years. 7. Federal revenues should initially move to 22.4% percent of GDP which was the average yearly spending level during Ronald Reagan’s eight years in office. Given the canonization for sainthood Republicans wish to grant Reagan, the average 22.4% of GDP spending level should be set as the federal revenue target. This is slightly higher than the revenue percentage target suggested by the Simpson-Bowls Commission. This may not be an adequate revenue percentage of GDP in the long term because it is considerably lower than other developed countries. It should be noted that had the country been collecting revenues at 22.4% of GDP since 1980 and all spending as % of GDP had remained unchanged, all the nation’s deficits and debt in the intervening period would have been erased and the nation would be running a generous surplus. Assuming state and local taxes remain the same or increase slightly, this 22.4% target should close the gap modestly between the U.S. and other OECD countries in terms of total taxes as a percentage of GDP. 8. If federal surpluses should exceed 2% of GDP two years in a row with federal spending targeted at 22.4% of GDP, triggers adopted by Congress and with presidential approval should be established. Running surpluses makes more fiscal sense and saves more dollars and cents than running deficits since both the principal and interest on borrowed money must be paid back when deficits are the norm. Such a trigger will require Congress to be more fiscally responsible and reduce taxes should surpluses rise to a certain level above the 22.4% revenue target. 9. If federal deficits should exceed 2% of GDP two years in a row by falling below the 22.4% revenue target, triggers adopted by Congress and with presidential approval should be established. John Patterson Page 10 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth Running deficits is less fiscally responsible than running surpluses. Such a trigger will require Congress to be more fiscally responsible and increase taxes should deficits rise to a certain percentage of GDP. 10. Should federal revenues exceed federal spending, the Congress with presidential approval should designate how any excess revenues might be employed. Tax cuts and/or specified expenditures could be designated when surpluses are accrued. The simplest way could be to establish a federal rainy day fund similar to those existing in most states to handle emergencies and other unanticipated expenditures. In 2008 twenty-two states had rainy day funds in excess of 5% of anticipated annual expenditures. 11. Capital gains should be taxed at rates equivalent to earned income. 12. Effective corporate taxes should be higher and every corporation should pay some minimum percent on its profits. (000,000) Figure 14: High Profits, Law Tax Bills for Selected Corporations Figure 15: Tax Subsidies for 25 Companies Twenty-five companies while often championing the virtues of the free market received $173.7 billion in subsidies from 2008-2012 (Figures 14 & 15). Should a company like Wal-Mart receive subsidies and pay such low wages so that many of the company’s employees qualify for food stamps and other assistance which places a further burden on taxpayers? Taxpayers are subsidizing low-paying employers. John Patterson Page 11 Tax Reform Promoting SHARED PROSPERITY Economic Growth 13. Establish a small Thank You Taxpayers Tax (TYTT) on all stock transactions on Wall Street and a Bank Bailout Tax (BBT) on all bank transactions in the U.S. over a certain amount. This tax would assist in moving toward the revenue target of 22.4% of GDP. This would also be a way for Wall Street and banks to pay back for the generous bailout provided by taxpayers. Various estimates of the magnitude of the bailout range from a low of $700 billion (TARP funding) to highs in excess of $10 trillion. Figure 16 provides the yearly revenue such a tax on Wall Street trades ranging from one-tenth of one percent and one half of one percent would generate. Figure 16: Revenues Generated by Small Tax on All Stock Market Transactions Size of Tax (%) Amount Raised in 2013 .001 $31.2 billion .002 $62.4 billion .003 $93.6 billion .004 $124.8 billion .005 $156 billion Although the revenues generated by this tax would be substantial, it would take many years, even decades, depending on which study one favors in assessing the overall cost for the bailout. Politicians and the public are more likely to support such a tax if the revenues from it are directed at specific programs strongly supported in public opinion surveys regardless of political affiliation. 14. Reestablish a higher estate tax for estates in excess of some agreed upon amount. Lower taxes on inherited wealth in a democracy perpetuate the closest thing in returning modern societies to feudal days when a perpetual elite class dominated the economy and affairs of state. There is a meritocracy argument to be made that an individual who accumulates a large fortune has done so through his or her diligence, entrepreneurship and hard work. There is little evidence those inheriting large fortunes have earned these fortunes via hard work of meritorious achievement. Those who do inherit what remains of highly taxed estates will, in fact, have the incentive to apply their diligence, entrepreneurship and hard work to make up for whatever inheritance is denied because of higher estate taxes. Any political party that contends programs assisting lower income households will make them lazy and unwilling to work hard should certainly understand why those inheriting wealth will have more incentive to work hard to regain whatever portion of wealth that might be lost due to a higher estate tax. John Patterson Page 12