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06.03.2012 Elasticity and applications Law of demand: “The demand curve is downward-sloping. As price rises quantity demanded falls, [as price falls quantity demanded rises].” Elasticity Two markets: public transportation vs movie theaters In 1984, the City of Chicago wanted to attract more transit riders with lower fares. J. L. Shofer, research director at Northwestern University’s Transportation Center, wrote: “Lower fares never make up for loss of revenues. Even when losing riders by increasing fares, revenue usually goes up. It’s a law of economics.” The law of demand is too general and not useful in analyzing the case above. We often need more (precise) information. Two demand curves Price elasticity of demand As P decreases from P1 to P2, QD increases along both demand curves Da and Db. P However, an equal decrease in price results in a smaller increase in QD in demand curve Da, in a larger increase in QD for demand curve Db. P1 P2 Db Demand Curve Da Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Da is relatively less responsive to price changes whereas Demand curve Db is relatively more responsive. Price elasticity of demand is a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good. Price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity demanded given a percent change in the price. If the amount of any good that people purchase changes a lot in response to a small price change, we say “DEMAND IS ELASTIC” If a large price change results in a small change in the amount that people purchase, we say “DEMAND IS INELASTIC” 1 06.03.2012 Price elasticity of demand The determinants of the price elasticity of demand: Availability of Close Substitutes How to compute the price elasticity of demand? The price elasticity of demand is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price. Necessities versus Luxuries Definition of the Market Time Horizon Demand tends to be more elastic: If there are a large number of close substitutes. If the good is a luxury. Price elasticity of demand (EP ) If the market is more narrowly defined (food versus milk). If we consider a longer time period after the price change. Price elasticity of demand: Examples 10 % increase in the price of eggs leads to 5% reduction in the number of eggs sold. What is the price elasticity of demand? Answer: Price elasticity of demand for eggs is -.5 2. If the (price) elasticity of red apples is -0.8, then a one percent increase in the price of red apples will lead to a 0.8 percent decrease (or, 0.8 % decrease) in the quantity of red apples demanded. If the (price) elasticity of red apples is -0.8, then a 5 percent increase in the price of red apples, will lead to a 5 x 0.8 = 4 percent decrease in the quantity of red apples demanded. Percentage change in quantity demand Percentage change inprice Because the price elasticity of demand measures how much quantity demanded responds to the price, it is closely related to the slope of the demand curve. BUT, slope is not elasticity!! How to Calculate Percentage Changes in the Elasticity formula (the midpoint method)? 1. Price elasticity of demand (EP ) The midpoint formula is preferable when calculating the price elasticity of demand because it gives the same answer regardless of the direction of the change. (Q2 - Q1) / [(Q2 + Q1) / 2] Price elasticity of demand (EP) = (P2 - P1) / [(P2 + P1) / 2] Percentage change in quantity demand Percentage change inprice 2 06.03.2012 Example using the Midpoint Method • Point A: Point B: Price = $4 Price = $6 Quantity = 120 Quantity = 80 From Point A to Point B: Price rise = 50% and Quantity fall = 33% From Point B to Point A: Price fall = 33% and Quantity rise = 50% (80 - 120) / [(80 + 120)/ 2] Price elasticity of demand (EP) = Mid point method = - (6 - 4) / [(6 + 4)/ 2] 1 Elastic versus inelastic demand curves Roughly, Inelastic Demand Quantity demanded does not respond strongly to price changes. Price elasticity of demand is less than one. Elastic Demand Quantity demanded responds strongly to changes in price. Price elasticity of demand is greater than one. Formally, If | EP | > 1, demand is (price) elastic. If | EP | < 1, demand is (price) inelastic. If | EP | = 1, demand is (price) unit elastic. A very important remark: Because price and quantity are negatively related along the (typical) demand curve, EP is (always) negative. Remark on elasticity calculation Elasticity calculation can be tricky, because there are many (simultaneous) influences on demand and supply. (See the example below.) Consider a demand curve drawn on the Pvs. Q graph. EP is a measure that corresponds to movements up and down the demand curve. But changes in other variables (shown as shifts in the P vs. Q graph) also impact price and quantity. To calculate EP correctly, we have to make sure that all else is held constant. Remark on elasticity calculation The following data show the prices of X and Y, the annual income of the consumer, and the quantities of X consumed during the last 6 years. Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 PX ($) 100 110 90 100 100 100 QX 80 90 100 100 90 110 PY ($) 50 40 40 60 40 40 Income ($) 20,000 18,000 18,000 20,000 20,000 25,000 (a) Which pair of years would you use to calculate the price elasticity of demand for X? Why? (b) What is the price elasticity of demand for X? 3 06.03.2012 Perfectly Inelastic Demand Particular demand curves Price Demand E=0 Perfectly Inelastic Quantity demanded does not respond to price changes. Perfectly Elastic $5.00 Quantity demanded changes infinitely with any change in price. Unit Elastic $4.00 Quantity demanded changes by the same percentage as the price. 1. An increase in price… 0 100 Quantity 2. …leaves the quantity demanded unchanged. Inelastic Demand Price Demand Unit Elastic Demand E<1 E=1 Price Demand $5.00 $5.00 $4.00 $4.00 1. A 22% increase in price… 1. A 22% increase in price… 0 90 100 2. … Leads to a 11% decrease in quantity demanded. Quantity 0 80 100 Quantity 2. … Leads to a 22% decrease in quantity demanded. 4 06.03.2012 Elastic Demand Perfectly Elastic Demand E>1 Price E= Price Demand $5.00 1. At any price above $4, quantity demanded is zero. $4.00 Demand $4.00 2. At exactly $4, consumers will buy any quantity. 1. A 22% increase in price… 3. At any price below $4, quantity demanded is infinite. 0 50 100 0 Quantity Quantity 2. … Leads to a 67% decrease in quantity demanded. Total Revenue and the price elasticity of demand Remember the quotation: In 1984, the City of Chicago wanted to attract more transit riders with lower fares. J. L. Shofer, research director at Northwestern University’s Transportation Center, wrote: “Lower fares never make up for loss of revenues. Even when losing riders by increasing fares, revenue usually goes up. It’s a law of economics.” Inelastic Demand: How does total revenue change when prices change? With an inelastic demand curve, an increase in the price leads to a decrease in quantity demanded that is proportionately smaller. Thus, total revenue increases when price increases. Price $3.00 P x Q = $240 (revenue) Total revenue is the amount paid by buyers and received by sellers of a good and computed as the price of the good times the quantity sold. TR = P x Q $1.00 P x Q = $100 (revenue) 0 Demand 80 100 Quantity 5 06.03.2012 Elastic Demand: How does total revenue change when prices change? Elasticity along a linear demand curve Price With an elastic demand curve, an increase in the price leads to a decrease in quantity demanded that is proportionately larger. Thus, total revenue decreases when price increases. Elasticity is larger than 1. 7 6 Price 5 $5.00 4 $4.00 Elasticity is smaller than 1. 3 Demand 2 Revenue = $100 1 Revenue = $200 0 0 20 50 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Quantity Quantity Elasticity and Total Revenue along a Linear Demand Curve Income elasticity of demand Income elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in consumers’ income. It is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income. Percentage change in quantity demanded Income elasticity of demand = Percentage change in income 6 06.03.2012 Income elasticity of demand Income elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in consumers’ income. It is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income. Percentage change in quantity demanded Income elasticity of demand = Percentage change in income Income elasticity of demand Goods consumers regard as necessities tend to be income inelastic Examples include food, fuel, clothing, utilities, and medical services. Goods consumers regard as luxuries tend to be income elastic. Examples include sports cars, furs, and expensive foods. Higher income raises the quantity demanded for normal goods but lowers the quantity demanded for inferior goods. Thus, income elasticity of demand is positive for normal goods and negative for inferior goods. Cross price elasticity of demand Cross-Price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of another good. It is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in the price of the other good. The cross elasticity of the demand for good X with respect to the price of good Y is defined as: Cross price elasticity of demand Cross-Price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of another good. It is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in the price of the other good. The cross elasticity of the demand for good X with respect to the price of good Y is defined as: Percentage change in quantity demanded of good X Cross price elasticity of demand = Percentage change in the price of good Y Percentage change in quantity demanded of good X Cross price elasticity of demand = Percentage change in the price of good Y Cross elasticity is positive if X and Y are substitutes, and it is negative if X and Y are complements. (Why?) 7 06.03.2012 Price elasticity of supply Price elasticity of supply: an example The price elasticity of supply is a measure of how much the quantity supplied of a good responds to a change in the price of that good. The price elasticity of supply is computed as the percentage change in the quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price. Ability of sellers to change the amount of the good they produce. Beach-front land is inelastic. Books, cars, or manufactured goods are elastic. Supply is more elastic in the long run. Price elasticity of supply = • … using the midpoint method, we calculate the percent change in the price as (2.10 - 1.90) / 2.00 x 100 = 10% Similarly, we calculate the percent change in the quantity supplied as (11,000 – 9,000) / 10,000 x 100 = 20% 20% Price elasticity of supply = 10% = 2.0 Percentage change in quantity supplied Percentage change in price Inelastic Supply Perfectly Inelastic Supply Price Suppose an increase in the price of milk from $1.90 to $2.10 per liter raises the amount that dairy farmers produce from 9000 to 11 000 liters (per month) Supply E=0 $5.00 Price Supply E<0 $5.00 $4.00 $4.00 1. An increase in price… 1. A 22% increase in price… 0 100 2. …leaves the quantity supplied unchanged. Quantity 0 100 110 Quantity 2. …leads to a 10% increase in quantity supplied. 8 06.03.2012 Unit Elastic Supply Elastic Supply E=1 Price E>1 Price Supply Supply $5.00 $5.00 $4.00 $4.00 1. A 22% increase in price… 1. A 22% increase in price… 0 100 125 0 Quantity 100 200 Quantity 2. …leads to a 67% increase in quantity supplied. 2. …leads to a 22% increase in quantity supplied. How the price elasticity of supply can vary? Perfectly Elastic Supply E= Price Price $15 Elasticity is less than 1 $12 1. At any price above $4, quantity supplied is infinite. Elasticity is greater than 1 Supply $4.00 2. At exactly $4, producers will supply any quantity. $4 $3 3. At any price below $4, quantity supplied is zero. 0 0 Quantity 100 200 500 525 Quantity 9 06.03.2012 Three applications of supply, demand, and elasticity Elasticity of supply: examples When the price of DaVinci paintings increases by 1% the quantity supplied doesn't change at all, so the quantity supplied of DaVinci paintings is completely insensitive to the price. Price elasticity of supply is 0. Good news vs bad news for farmers OPEC Drugs and crime Teen smokers Gasoline tax decreases accidents. When the price of beef increases by 1% the quantity supplied increases by 5%, so beef supply is very price sensitive. Price elasticity of supply is 5. Application 1: Good news vs bad news for the farmers Price of Wheat Increase in Supply 1. When demand is inelastic, an increase in supply… Application 2: OECD (a) Oil Market in the Short Run Price of Oil (b) Oil Market in the Long Run Price of Oil 1. In the short run, when supply and demand are inelastic, a shift in supply… S2 S2 1. In the long run, when supply and demand are elastic, a shift in supply… S2 $3 P2 P2 P1 $2 P1 2. … leads to a fall in price… 2. … leads to a large increase in price… Demand Demand 100 110 3. …and a proportionately smaller increase in quantity sold. As a result revenue falls from $300 to $220. 2. … leads to a small increase in price… Demand Quantity of Wheat Quantity of Oil Quantity of Oil 10 06.03.2012 Application 3: Drugs and Crime (a) Drug Interdiction Price of Drugs Application 3: Drugs and Crime (b) Drug Education Price of Drugs 1. Drug interdiction reduces the supply of drugs… S2 How elasticity affects the market for illegal goods 1. Drug education reduces the demand for drugs… In an important new study, world-renowned economists argue that when demand for a good is inelastic, the cost of making consumption illegal exceeds the gain. Their forthcoming paper in the Journal of Political Economy is a definitive explanation of the economics of illegal goods and a thoughtful explication of the costs of enforcement. P2 P1 P2 P1 D1 2. … which reduces the price… 2. … which raises the price… D2 Demand Q2 Q1 Quantity of Drugs 3. … and reduces the quantity sold. Q2 Q1 Quantity of Drugs The authors demonstrate how the elasticity of demand is crucial to understanding the effects of punishment on suppliers. Enforcement raises costs for suppliers, who must respond to the risk of imprisonment and other punishments. This cost is passed on to the consumer, which induces lower consumption when demand is relatively elastic. However, in the case of illegal goods like drugs--where demand seems inelastic--higher prices lead not to less use, but to an increase in total spending. In the case of drugs, then, the authors argue that excise taxes and persuasive techniques –such as advertising-are far more effective uses of enforcement expenditures. "This analysis…helps us understand why the War on Drugs has been so difficult to win…why efforts to reduce the supply of drugs leads to violence and greater power to street gangs and drug cartels," conclude the authors. "The answer lies in the basic theory of enforcement developed in this paper." 3. … and reduces the quantity sold. Application 4: Teen smokers Application 5: Gasoline tax decreases accidents In a 1996 article in the Energy Journal, authors Jonathan Haughton and Soumodip Sarkar attempt to answer the question of what impact a $1 gasoline tax increase would have on driving and accidents.They submit that with a gas tax of $1, miles driven would decrease by up to 12% and fatalities by up to 18%. How do they get to these results? By estimating and using the own-price elasticity of gasoline to calculate the impact on gasoline consumption. The retail price of gasoline in 1991 was $1.13, of which 28% or $0.32 was tax. Assuming that the entire tax increase is applied to the price, this means a price increase of $0.68, or 46%. The long run own-price elasticity of demand for gasoline over a ten-year period was calculated to be in the range -0.23 to -0.35. Using this knowledge we can calculate the change in consumption: Price Elasticity of cigarettes U.S. has increased taxes on cigarettes dramatically in the past 5 years. A majority of adult smokers have sucked it up and continued smoking. Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the commissioner of the city Department of Health and Mental Hygiene in New York has conducted several surveys among young adult and teen smokers. City and state tobacco taxes, which have been gradually rising in recent years and now add $3 to the price of each pack of cigarettes, for a total of $5.50 or more. “Kids are most susceptible to price because they don’t have a whole lot of disposable income,” Dr. Frieden said. “So when you increase the price of cigarettes, you drive smoking down generally among adults but especially for teens.” Raising the taxes will have a much more noticeable effect short term users. The older (faithful users) they are less sensitive to price changes. Source: A. RAMIREZ, New York Times, Published: January 3, 2008 Teenagers in the City Smoke Less, Report Finds %ΔQ/46% = -0.23 %ΔQ = -0.23 * 46% = -10.6% %ΔQ/46% = -0.35 %ΔQ = -0.35 * 46% = -16.1% Without going into the effect on accidents, we can still determine that a gas tax of $1 would decrease gas consumption by between 10.6% and 16.1%. Source: Haughton, J. & Sarkar, S. (1996) Gasoline Tax as a Corrective Tax: Estimates for the United States, 1970-1991, Energy Journal vol 17 no 2 p103-26. 11 06.03.2012 Why do economists use elasticity? Economists want to compare apples and oranges all the time. Is oil market demand more price sensitive than wheat demand? (no) Is the labor supply of women more wage sensitive than the labor supply of men? (yes) An elasticity is a unit-free measure. By comparing markets using elasticities, it does not matter how we measure the price or the quantity in the two markets. Elasticities allow economists to quantify the differences among markets without standardizing the units of measurement. Summary Price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded responds to changes in the price. Price elasticity of demand is calculated as the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price. If a demand curve is elastic, total revenue falls when the price rises. If it is inelastic, total revenue rises as the price rises. Examples of unit-free comparisons Gasoline and jewelry It doesn't matter that gas is sold by the gallon for about $1.09 and gold is sold by the ounce for about $290. We compare the demand elasticities of -0.2 (gas) and -2.6 (gold jewelry). Gold jewelry demand is more price sensitive. Paintings and meat It doesn't matter that classical paintings are sold by the canvas for millions of dollars each while beef is sold by the pound for about $1.50. We compare the supply elasticities of 0 (classical paintings) and 5 (beef). Beef supply is more price sensitive. Summary The income elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded responds to changes in consumers’ income. The cross-price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded of one good responds to the price of another good. The price elasticity of supply measures how much the quantity supplied responds to changes in the price. 12 06.03.2012 Summary In most markets, supply is more elastic in the long run than in the short run. The price elasticity of supply is calculated as the percentage change in quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price. The tools of supply and demand can be applied in many different types of markets. 13