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The Impact of Environment on the Stability of Bangladeshi Society (by Graham Tyrie) Jared Diamond in his book “Collapse: How societies Choose to fail or Survive”1 examines the factors which have led to the collapse of societies in the past. His objective is to tease out the importance of environmental factors while recognising that other factors are necessary to cause a society to be under strain. For example the recent collapse of the Soviet Union cannot be attributed primarily to environmental factors, but on the other hand it is recognised that the failure of many island societies and indeed the ancient Mesopotamian societies were a result of intensified agriculture leading to soil depletion and salinisation causing lower yields than the population required. Diamond has used a comparative method to examine the histories of a range of societies which came under environmental stresses, some of which failed some of which survived. His analysis provides lessons which are worth attention. I have attempted to apply his analysis to Bangladesh. He identifies eight major environmental factors which have contributed to societal strains in the past. These are: Deforestation and habitat change, Soil problems (erosion, salinisation, soil fertility loss), Water management problems, Over hunting, Over fishing, Effects of introduced species on local species, Human population growth, and Increased per capita impact of people. To these he added four modern factors: Human climate change, Toxic chemical pollution, Energy shortage, Full utilisation of photosynthesis by man. It is clear that no society ever collapsed purely because of environmental problems, but it is instructive to look at the role of environmental factors along with other contributory factors. Diamond identified a five point framework for his analysis: Environmental damage, climate change, cross border hostilities, trading partner support and the response of society to environmental challenges. Not all are relevant in every case, but he is clear that the response of a society to environmental challenges is always a factor in survival or collapse. Successes include Iceland which after settlement by the Norse became very wealthy until deforestation led to the collapse of the economy and with it the population. The root cause was failure by the Norse to understand that Icelandic soils were different from Norway’s despite a surface similarity in the landscapes. A reforestation policy reclaimed soil productivity, turned the economy around and today Iceland enjoys one of the highest par capita incomes in the world. Greenland, also settled by the Norse, never recovered. The Easter Island civilisation suffered a similar fate and also never recovered. How does modern Bangladesh measure up using this analysis? Table 1 summarises the importance of the eight major environmental factors in modern Bangladeshi society. There are certainly environmental problems and these are of the serious resource degradation type. The water resource which is crucial to the Bangladeshi way of life is degrading. Supply is inadequate during the dry season and flood flows are possibly increasing. Storage is not adequate and if improved 1 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive. By Jared Diamond, 2005, published by Allen Lane. would have major problems with pollution which is not being controlled. Ground water reserves are depleting and are often contaminated by arsenic and more recently pollution. The land base area is eroding due to sea level rises, salinisation and salt water intrusion, river bank erosion, desertification and erosion of hill slopes. Land quality appears to be declining. The evidence includes declining yields, increased requirements for fertilisers and pesticides. Bangladesh one of the least forested countries in the world is still deforesting and reforestation is insignificant. Habitat loss is widespread including declining fish habitats due to fall in dry season water levels and fragmentation of water bodies. Rural energy supplies are limited and declining. There is a huge landless poor population who basically have no access to resources, living from hand to mouth in a precarious existence in a degrading environment. Clearly resource access is the major source of poverty in Bangladesh. It is not hard to make the leap to blaming this hopeless situation for land grabs, oppression of minorities, migration, labour export, the incidence of child trafficking, and miserable working conditions in factories. While not internally produced, climate change is certainly an issue. Sea level rise is causing a reduction in arable land area, increased salt water intrusion and is endangering the Sundarbans mangrove forests. This is probably irreversible, but the full extent is not yet known. There is mounting evidence that severe weather events are increasing in frequency as a result of climate change. Bangladesh was born out of conflict only thirty years ago. Cross border hostilities are not presently a major problem in military terms, but there are numerous low grade problems with neighbours which are not conducive to building fruitful cooperation. Internal conflicts are a persistent problem again related to resource access. Cross border water resource sharing issues with India are a source of concern and are potentially dangerous. As a lower riparian country with limited clout, belligerence will not provide a solution. Trading partner support exists, but has deteriorated recently with the demise of the garment quota. Bangladesh’s internal governance problems and poor trading support mechanisms e.g. corrupt port authorities and heavy handed bureaucracy discourage active support from trading partners. The response to environmental concerns is pitiful. Air pollution has abated in Dhaka due to the replacement of 2-stroke baby taxis with less polluting CNG powered machines. Plastic bags, which were clogging drainage ways, have been banned. The major problems remain. Water supply is already inadequate and will not meet future demands. Quality and storage are undermined by pollution and inefficient sanitation provisions. Habitat conservation despite its importance to the fish population is ignored. Bangladesh is not dealing with its resource management problems and certainly not its environmental challenges. This contributes to Bangladesh’s image as an unattractive destination for foreign direct investment. It is consequently difficult to attract expatriates who are an important part of any inward investment. Many of these problems are probably beyond the capability and capacity of Bangladesh to address alone. Donors seem to have abandoned environmental issues as unworthy of attention. It should be noted that the developed world bears the major responsibility for climate change impacts and while the response of the GoB in addressing environmental concerns remains inadequate there is sound moral reasons why the donor community should work with the Bangladeshi people to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Cross border issues will also require third party assistance, though again Bangladesh will have to take a constructive lead. It would seem that Bangladesh does not measure up very well using this analysis. Lack of access to the resource base is a major cause of poverty. The fact that the resource base is also degrading heightens the hopelessness, which makes acquiescence in exploitation possible. Some of the most gruesome indicators are the problems we identify and hope to treat: Child trafficking, illegal migration, land grabs and oppression of minorities. Other indicators might include increasing fundamentalism, a credible alternative to hopelessness and acquiescence. The bright points remain that Bangladesh still has some support from its trading partners and does not have any serious cross border conflicts. It should be noted, however, that there are strains even in these areas and that current Bangladeshi policies are not conducive to maintaining far less improving these ties. This is not to suggest that reforestation and water management will solve Bangladesh’s problems, merely that they will not be solved without addressing these underlying, resource base problems. Table 1. The significance of major environmental factors to Bangladeshi society Environmental factor Importance in Bangladesh Deforestation and habitat change Almost complete Soil problems (erosion, All 3 salinisation, soil fertility loss) Water management Serious issue Over hunting Habitat already depleted Over fishing Serious issue – stocks of some species have collapsed Effects of introduced species Not really an issue Human population growth Highest population density in the world. Fairly low growth rate. Increased per capita impact of Too poor to have huge per capita people impact, but too high for environment to sustain. Human climate change Serious impact and likely to increase. May be highest in the world. Toxic chemicals – pollution Gross problems and poor management Energy shortage At rural household level an issue despite natural gas reserves. 100% Utilisation of Yields are decreasing – not sure how photosynthesis by man. relevant.