Download 2005 - LCG Bangladesh

The Impact of Environment on the Stability of Bangladeshi Society
(by Graham Tyrie)
Jared Diamond in his book “Collapse: How societies Choose to fail or Survive”1
examines the factors which have led to the collapse of societies in the past. His
objective is to tease out the importance of environmental factors while recognising
that other factors are necessary to cause a society to be under strain. For example the
recent collapse of the Soviet Union cannot be attributed primarily to environmental
factors, but on the other hand it is recognised that the failure of many island societies
and indeed the ancient Mesopotamian societies were a result of intensified agriculture
leading to soil depletion and salinisation causing lower yields than the population
required.
Diamond has used a comparative method to examine the histories of a range of
societies which came under environmental stresses, some of which failed some of
which survived. His analysis provides lessons which are worth attention. I have
attempted to apply his analysis to Bangladesh.
He identifies eight major environmental factors which have contributed to societal
strains in the past. These are:
Deforestation and habitat change, Soil problems (erosion, salinisation, soil fertility
loss), Water management problems, Over hunting, Over fishing, Effects of introduced
species on local species, Human population growth, and Increased per capita impact
of people. To these he added four modern factors: Human climate change, Toxic
chemical pollution, Energy shortage, Full utilisation of photosynthesis by man.
It is clear that no society ever collapsed purely because of environmental problems,
but it is instructive to look at the role of environmental factors along with other
contributory factors. Diamond identified a five point framework for his analysis:
Environmental damage, climate change, cross border hostilities, trading partner
support and the response of society to environmental challenges. Not all are relevant
in every case, but he is clear that the response of a society to environmental
challenges is always a factor in survival or collapse. Successes include Iceland which
after settlement by the Norse became very wealthy until deforestation led to the
collapse of the economy and with it the population. The root cause was failure by the
Norse to understand that Icelandic soils were different from Norway’s despite a
surface similarity in the landscapes. A reforestation policy reclaimed soil productivity,
turned the economy around and today Iceland enjoys one of the highest par capita
incomes in the world. Greenland, also settled by the Norse, never recovered. The
Easter Island civilisation suffered a similar fate and also never recovered.
How does modern Bangladesh measure up using this analysis?
Table 1 summarises the importance of the eight major environmental factors in
modern Bangladeshi society. There are certainly environmental problems and these
are of the serious resource degradation type. The water resource which is crucial to
the Bangladeshi way of life is degrading. Supply is inadequate during the dry season
and flood flows are possibly increasing. Storage is not adequate and if improved
1
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive. By Jared Diamond, 2005, published by Allen
Lane.
would have major problems with pollution which is not being controlled. Ground
water reserves are depleting and are often contaminated by arsenic and more recently
pollution. The land base area is eroding due to sea level rises, salinisation and salt
water intrusion, river bank erosion, desertification and erosion of hill slopes. Land
quality appears to be declining. The evidence includes declining yields, increased
requirements for fertilisers and pesticides. Bangladesh one of the least forested
countries in the world is still deforesting and reforestation is insignificant. Habitat loss
is widespread including declining fish habitats due to fall in dry season water levels
and fragmentation of water bodies. Rural energy supplies are limited and declining.
There is a huge landless poor population who basically have no access to resources,
living from hand to mouth in a precarious existence in a degrading environment.
Clearly resource access is the major source of poverty in Bangladesh. It is not hard to
make the leap to blaming this hopeless situation for land grabs, oppression of
minorities, migration, labour export, the incidence of child trafficking, and miserable
working conditions in factories.
While not internally produced, climate change is certainly an issue. Sea level rise is
causing a reduction in arable land area, increased salt water intrusion and is
endangering the Sundarbans mangrove forests. This is probably irreversible, but the
full extent is not yet known. There is mounting evidence that severe weather events
are increasing in frequency as a result of climate change.
Bangladesh was born out of conflict only thirty years ago. Cross border hostilities are
not presently a major problem in military terms, but there are numerous low grade
problems with neighbours which are not conducive to building fruitful cooperation.
Internal conflicts are a persistent problem again related to resource access. Cross
border water resource sharing issues with India are a source of concern and are
potentially dangerous. As a lower riparian country with limited clout, belligerence
will not provide a solution.
Trading partner support exists, but has deteriorated recently with the demise of the
garment quota. Bangladesh’s internal governance problems and poor trading support
mechanisms e.g. corrupt port authorities and heavy handed bureaucracy discourage
active support from trading partners.
The response to environmental concerns is pitiful. Air pollution has abated in Dhaka
due to the replacement of 2-stroke baby taxis with less polluting CNG powered
machines. Plastic bags, which were clogging drainage ways, have been banned. The
major problems remain. Water supply is already inadequate and will not meet future
demands. Quality and storage are undermined by pollution and inefficient sanitation
provisions. Habitat conservation despite its importance to the fish population is
ignored. Bangladesh is not dealing with its resource management problems and
certainly not its environmental challenges.
This contributes to Bangladesh’s image as an unattractive destination for foreign
direct investment. It is consequently difficult to attract expatriates who are an
important part of any inward investment.
Many of these problems are probably beyond the capability and capacity of
Bangladesh to address alone. Donors seem to have abandoned environmental issues as
unworthy of attention.
It should be noted that the developed world bears the major responsibility for climate
change impacts and while the response of the GoB in addressing environmental
concerns remains inadequate there is sound moral reasons why the donor community
should work with the Bangladeshi people to mitigate and adapt to climate change
impacts. Cross border issues will also require third party assistance, though again
Bangladesh will have to take a constructive lead.
It would seem that Bangladesh does not measure up very well using this analysis.
Lack of access to the resource base is a major cause of poverty. The fact that the
resource base is also degrading heightens the hopelessness, which makes
acquiescence in exploitation possible. Some of the most gruesome indicators are the
problems we identify and hope to treat: Child trafficking, illegal migration, land grabs
and oppression of minorities. Other indicators might include increasing
fundamentalism, a credible alternative to hopelessness and acquiescence. The bright
points remain that Bangladesh still has some support from its trading partners and
does not have any serious cross border conflicts. It should be noted, however, that
there are strains even in these areas and that current Bangladeshi policies are not
conducive to maintaining far less improving these ties.
This is not to suggest that reforestation and water management will solve
Bangladesh’s problems, merely that they will not be solved without addressing these
underlying, resource base problems.
Table 1. The significance of major environmental factors to Bangladeshi society
Environmental factor
Importance in Bangladesh
Deforestation and habitat change
Almost complete
Soil problems (erosion,
All 3
salinisation, soil fertility loss)
Water management
Serious issue
Over hunting
Habitat already depleted
Over fishing
Serious issue – stocks of some species
have collapsed
Effects of introduced species
Not really an issue
Human population growth
Highest population density in the world.
Fairly low growth rate.
Increased per capita impact of
Too poor to have huge per capita
people
impact, but too high for environment to
sustain.
Human climate change
Serious impact and likely to increase.
May be highest in the world.
Toxic chemicals – pollution
Gross problems and poor management
Energy shortage
At rural household level an issue despite
natural gas reserves.
100% Utilisation of
Yields are decreasing – not sure how
photosynthesis by man.
relevant.