Download Perceptions of Risk to Climate Change

Perceptions of Risk to Climate
Change: The Case of
Georgetown, Guyana
Presented by Dickson Chiedozie Osuala
Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic
Studies
University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus.
Trinidad & Tobago
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
1
Outline
Objectives
Motivation
Meaning of Perceptions of risk
Perceptions of risk and climate change policy.
Data and Methodology
Results
Conclusions
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Motivation
Georgetown, the capital of Guyana, is by far the most
important industrial and commercial center of that
country.
This decision was based on its proximity to the
coastline, coastal terrain and high population density.
It accounts for more than one-third of the population.
It is 1.5 meters below the mean high tide sea-level
mark.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Objectives
Analyse the perceptions of risk of residents of Georgetown,
Guyana to climate change, in particular to sea level rise and
seek to identify the factors that influence the forming of such
perceptions;
Analyze how perceptions of risk to climate change aid in the
development and formulation of adaptation strategies and
initiatives;
Analyze how access to climate change information influences
the formation of such perceptions.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Meaning of Perceptions of Risk
Ban and Hawkins (2000) define ‘perception’ as receiving
information or stimuli from the existing environment and
transforming it into psychological awareness (Rahman et al. 2011).
Rosa (2003) defines risk as “a situation whereby something of
human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and the
outcome is uncertain”.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
According to Botzen et al. (2009), individuals tend to deviate
from rational behavioral patterns when they make decisions
under risk or duress.
Risk perception is the subjective estimation of the probability of
a specific type of phenomena (natural or man-made) occurring
and how concerned we are with the outcome of such an
occurrence (Sjoberg et al. 2004).
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Perceptions of risk and Climate Change Policy
Eisenack et al. (2007) argue that policy and decision makers
believe that scientific information is not enough when developing
adequate adaptation interventions.
Knowledge about individual perceptions of risk is relevant
information for the formation of an effective climate change
adaptation policy for policymakers (Botzen et al. 2009).
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Public perceptions of the risks posed by climate change
influence support or opposition to climate change policies (e.g.,
treaties, regulations, taxes, subsidies, etc.) (Leiserowitz 2006).
According to Peacock et al. (2005), there has been little
empirical research about factors that shape individual
perceptions towards risk for specific natural hazards.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Data and Methodology
A survey of 1,000 Households was carried out in
Georgetown and a total of 815 useful responses were
obtained.
Factor analysis was applied in creating an index for
perceptions to climate change.
This “perception index” was applied as the dependent
variable in a multiple linear regression model to
determine factors that influence perception to climate
change in Georgetown, Guyana.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Multiple linear regression models are applied to;
Determine the formation of perceptions of Climate Change risk
in Georgetown (Model 1).
Analyze how perceptions to climate change aid in the
development and formulation of adaptation strategies and
initiatives (Model 2);
Analyze how access to climate change information influences the
formation of such perceptions (Model 3).
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Model 1 Explanatory Variables
Explanatory variables applied in analyzing for factors that
influence perceptions of risk of climate change in
Georgetown, Guyana include:
Age.
Gender.
Educational Level.
Occupation.
Ownership of dwelling.
Monthly household income (incl. of personal income)
Construction Material of Outer Wall of Dwelling.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Descriptive Statistics:
Model 1 Explanatory Variables
Variable
Obs. Mean
S.D
Minimum
Maximum
Age
783
37.08429
13.73342
1
92
Gender
795
.4691824
.4993635
0
1
Education
798
2.462406
1.131488
1
6
Occupation
761
5.61498
3.214316
1
10
Ownership
766
.4804178
.4999428
0
1
H. Income
687
3.443959
1.297897
1
5
C/Material
740
1.647297
.5987635
1
3
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Model 1 Results
Age and Gender have a significant effect on perceptions of
risk of climate change in Georgetown, Guyana.
Education had a negative impact on perception to climate
change.
Other statistically significant explanatory variables include
ownership of dwelling and Construction material of outer
wall of dwelling.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Model 2 Results
•
Residents who perceive climate change as a risk in Georgetown,
Guyana endorsed the following adaptation strategies;
 Reduced electricity usage.
 Efficient use of energy.
 Improved crop cultivation.
•
Residents who perceive climate change as a risk held the
conviction that the Guyanese government is responsible for
addressing climate change.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Model 3 Results
Residents who perceive climate change as a risk exhibit
a willingness/interest to access climate change
information.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Conclusions.
Capacity to perceive climate change is positively aligned with age
in Georgetown, Guyana.
Gender plays an important role in forming perceptions to
climate change in Georgetown.
It was observed that a higher level of education corresponded
with low levels of risk perception in Georgetown.
It was observed that residents who perceive climate change as a
risk to Georgetown held the opinion that the Government of
Guyana is responsible for addressing climate change in
Georgetown, Guyana.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.
Policy Implications
There is a pressing need for policy makers to formulate
strategies that maintain the level of awareness/sensitization
of their populace with regards to the risk of climate change in
Georgetown, Guyana with a view to participating in the
development of adaptation policy.
The opinions of residents of Georgetown, Guyana who
perceive climate change as a risk should be taken into
consideration with respect to the type, scale and form of
adaptation strategies to be initiated.
UCCI 50/50 Conference. 2012.