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Common trait genetics Chris Cotsapas Liability threshold model Al-Chalabi and Hardiman, Nat Rev Neurology 2013 Heritability • Proportion of differences due to genetic factors – From family and twin studies • Broad sense (H2) – Additive, dominant and epistatic • Narrow sense (h2) – Additive only • How many genetic factors explain heritability? – Mendel v Galton Necessary and sufficient (BUT! expressivity, penetrance) Minikel et al, STM 2016 http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Body_height http://www.ebi.ac.uk/fgpt/gwas/images/timeseries/gwas-latest.png Enrichment of GWAS SNPs on Regions of Chromatin Accessibility Marked by DHSs Maurano et. al, Science 2012 Gusev et. al, AJHG 2014 Trynka et. al, AJHG 2015 Liability threshold model Al-Chalabi and Hardiman, Nat Rev Neurology 2013 Roep & Tree Nat Rev Imm 2014 Common and rare variant hypotheses GENETIC STUDY DESIGN Family or cohort study? Genetic data SNP Ind1 Ind2 Ind3 Ind4 1 AA AG AA GG 2 TC CC CC CC 3 GT GG TT GG 4 AC CC AC AC 5 AT AA TT AA Linkage analysis and TDT Transmission Disequilibrium Test Case/control association • H0: Frequency of ‘A1’ is independent of case/control status. A1 A2 Cases w x Controls y z c2 = (O-E)2/E [Pearson’s chi-Square] Odds Ratio (OR): Odds of Allele occurring in cases to the odds of Allele occurring in controls: w/x y/z = wz xy Power Small sample size Large sample size Freq Freq Cases Controls Cases Controls Regression analysis • Analysis of the relationship between a dependent or outcome variable (phenotype) with one or more independent or predictor variables (SNP genotype) Logistic Regression ln( pi ) ( 1 - pi ) = b 0 + b 1 Xi + e i Continuous Trait Value Linear Regression Yi = b0 + b1Xi + ei Slope: b1 b0 0 Pro tip Z2 = χ2 1 Number of A1 Alleles 2 QQ plot P < 5e-8 Manhattan plot DRILLING DOWN http://www.ebi.ac.uk/fgpt/gwas/images/timeseries/gwas-latest.png Effect sizes – T1D Petretto, Liu and Aitman NG 2007 Maurano et al Science 2012 GWAS signals are enriched in tissue-specific gene regulatory sequence Gusev et al ASHG 2014 Miki et al NG 2010 Fine mapping strategies • If a SNP is causal, then r2 should predict association of other SNPs in the area: Kichaev et al. PLoS Genet. 2014 LD score Bulik-Sullivan et al. NG 2015 Risk variant Molecular trait Cellular trait Disease risk RTC and CPSM in the CD58 Locus 6 5 3 eQTL 2 35 eqtl$BP 26 17 GWAS 9 10 gwas$BP 7 5 CPSM 2 1 pos$BP 0.75 0.5 RTC 0.25 116.5 116.63 116.75 116.88 tab$bps 117 Physical Position (Mbp) 117.13 117.25 117.38 117.5 Trait #2 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Trait #1 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 GWAS Distinct eQTL GWAS eQTL GWAS eQTL Shared Shared Number of loci Densely eQTL present 2 Driven by same effect 3 genotype CD14 CD14 1 + + + + Disease d CD4 LCL Total CD4 LCL Total MS 59 54 55 55 56 8 3 3 10 IBD 69 69 69 68 69 6 7 1 11 Crohn 19 18 18 18 18 2 1 0 3 UC 10 10 9 10 10 2 1 3 4 T1D 47 39 40 36 40 2 0 2 4 RA 34 34 34 34 34 1 0 0 1 CEL 34 34 34 34 34 3 1 0 4 Overall 272 258 259 255 261 24 13 9 37 * Excluding conditional hits ** Defined by immunochip's densely genotyped fine-mapping intervals. Excluding MHC *** Loosely identified by cis-eQTL signal within +/100kb from index SNPs. cis-eQTL is defined by the association p-value < 0.05. MS GWAS risk effect: NFKB1 locus 97 MS risk loci; IMSGC, Nat Genet 2013 MS patients show altered NFκB signaling in CD4+ T cells Figure 1. Naïve CD4 cells from patients with MS exhibit increased phospho-p65 NFκB. Flow cytometry of PBMCs from age-matched healthy + T cells show control (HC) CD4 and relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) ex vivo higher patients stained for CD4, CD45RA, CD45RO, and p-p65 STM 2015) pS529 p65 (Housley NFκB. MFI of et p65al, results are shown gated on naïve CD4+CD45RA+CD45RO- T-cells. CD4+ T cells from MS patients proliferate more rapidly after stimulus (Kofler et al JCI 2014) MS risk effect near NFKB1 alters signaling in CD4+ cells Nuclear localization rs228614 p= 0.037 p50 NFkB 30 20 10 0 Housley, STM 2015 GG AA p= 0.05 30 GG AA 20 10 0 0 15 30 Minutes GWAS loci harbor many NFκB genes Will Housley, David Hafler Model: NFκB signaling variation p50 External stimulus P-p50 p65 *NFκB Activation Proliferation Survival *NFκB Activation Proliferation Survival Broader phenotype? p50 P-p50 GV in NFκB pathway New gene activation patterns by NFκB GV in NFκB TFBS p65 IκB p50 p65 Resting state Stimulus Phosphorylation Nuclear translocation P rs228614-A carriers Low cytoplasmic NFκB Gene activation P Low levels P Moderate transcription P rs228614-G carriers P High cytoplasmic NFκB P P P High levels High activation threshold Moderate proliferation Distinct CD4+ subset fates P High transcription P Cell phenotype P Other target activation Low activation threshold High proliferation Plastic CD4+ subset fates