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Gestão de Sistemas Energéticos 2015/2016 Energy Analysis: Input-Output Prof. Tânia Sousa [email protected] Exercise • Considere the following Economy: What is the meaning of this? Exercise • Considere the following Economy: Sales of Agric. to Indus. or Inputs from Agriculture to Industry • Compute the matrix A of the technical coeficients: Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: What is the meaning of this? aij zij xj Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: aij zij xj The amount of agriculture products (in money) needed to produce 1 unit worth of industry products • What happens to the matrix of technical coefficients with time? Why? Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: aij • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: I A 1 j 0, Aj Z ij Xj Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L What is the meaning of this? x1=l11f1+l12f2+… xi lij f j Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L the quantity of agriculture products directly and indirectly needed for each unit of final demand of industry products Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: ? I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L the quantity of agriculture products directly and indirectly needed for each unit of final demand of industry products Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L What is the meaning of this? x1=l11f1+l12f2+… x2=l21f1+l22f2+… x3=l31f1+l32f2+… Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L Multiplier of the industry sector: the total output needed for each unit of final demand of industrial products Exercise • Matrix of technical coefficients: I A 1 Aj j 0, • Compute the Leontief inverse matrix: L What is the sector whose increase in final demand has the highest impact on the production of the economy? Exercise • If final demand in sector 1 (e.g. agriculture) is to increase 10% – What will be necessary changes in the total outputs of agriculture, industry and services? x Lf Exports 20 30 10 L Private Cons. Final Demand Final Demand 30 50 55 40 70 70 30 40 40 Exercise • If final demand in sector 1 (e.g. agriculture) is to increase 10% – What will be necessary changes in the total outputs of agriculture, industry and services? x Lf Exports 20 30 10 x1 x 2 x3 Private Cons. Final Demand Final Demand 30 50 55 40 70 70 30 40 40 55 80.8 70 122 40 101.6 Initial x Exercise • If final demand in sector 1 (e.g. agriculture) is to increase 10% – What will be necessary changes in the total outputs of agriculture, industry and services? x Lf Exports 20 30 10 x1 x 2 x3 Private Cons. Final Demand Final Demand 30 50 55 40 70 70 30 40 40 5 5.8 0 2 0 1.6 – What will be the new sales of industry to agriculture? Exercise • If final demand in sector 1 (e.g. agriculture) is to increase 10% – What will be the new sales of industry to agriculture? z21 a21 x1 21.6 Initial z21=20 Input-Output Analysis: Primary Inputs • The input-ouput model • Z Inputs Sectors Sectors Intermediate Inputs • (square matrix) Primary Inputs pi Intermediate inputs: intersector and intrasector inputs Primary inputs: payments (wages, rents, interest) for primary factors of production (labour, land, capital) & taxes & imports Input-Output: Primary Inputs • Primary inputs: va´ va1 ... van m´ m1 ... mn • For the transactions between sectors we defined: z11 x1 z12 x2 ... ... a11 a12 ... a1n ... ... ... ... a21 a22 ... ... A ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... z x z x ... ... a a ... a n2 nn n1 1 n 2 2 n1 – The inputs of sector j per unit of production of sector i are assumed to be constant Input-Output: Primary Inputs • For the primary inputs we define the coefficients: va´c va1 x1 ... van xn vac1 ... vacn m´c m1 x1 ... mn xn mc1 ... mcn – The added value of sector j per unit of production or imports of sector j per unit of production are assumed to be constant • For the transactions between sectors we defined: z11 x1 ... A ... zn1 x1 z12 x2 ... ... zn 2 x2 ... ... ... ... ... a11 a12 ... a21 a22 ... ... ... ... an1 an 2 ... a1n ... ... ... ... ... ann Input-Output: Primary Inputs • For the primary inputs we define the coefficients: va´c va1 x1 ... van xn vac1 ... vacn m´c m1 x1 ... mn xn mc1 ... mcn – The added value of sector j per unit of production or imports of sector j per unit of production are assumed to be constant • How to compute new values for added value or imports? Input-Output: Primary Inputs • For the primary inputs we define the coefficients: va´c va1 x1 ... van xn vac1 ... vacn m´c m1 x1 ... mn xn mc1 ... mcn – The added value of sector j per unit of production or imports of sector j per unit of production are assumed to be constant • To compute new values for added value or imports: va x ... vacn xn new new c1 1 va new new Input-Output: Primary Inputs • For the primary inputs we define the coefficients: va´c va1 x1 ... van xn vac1 ... vacn m´c m1 x1 ... mn xn mc1 ... mcn – The added value of sector j per unit of production or imports of sector j per unit of production are assumed to be constant • To compute new values for added value or imports: va new vac1 x1new vac1 0 0 x1new ... 0 ... 0 ... vac x new vac Lf new new new vacn xn 0 0 va x cn n m new m c Lf new Input-Output: Primary Inputs • Relevance: GDP= Added Values GDP Final consumption Exports Imports Exercise • What is the new added value? x1new 80.8 new x2 122 new 101.6 x3 Exercise • What is the new added value? 20 40 30 vac1 ; vac 2 ; vac 3 75 120 100 80.8 20 40 30 92.69 va 122 75 120 100 101.6 • GDP increased by 3% Exercise • Consider na economy based in 3 sectors, A, B e C. 5 120 65 A 2 30 Imports 5 3 Final Demand 6 B 150 20 2 95 C 500 5 • Write the matrix with the intersectorial flows and the input-output model. • Which is the sector with the highest added value? Exercise • Matrix: A B C A 5 30 6 B 2 3 2 C 5 20 5 • Input- Output Model: A B C P. Final Total A 5 30 6 120 161 B 2 3 2 150 157 C 5 20 5 500 530 Importação 65 0 95 Valor acrescentado 84 104 422 Total 161 157 530 Exercise • Consider na economy based in 3 sectors, A, B e C. 5 120 65 A 2 30 Imports 5 3 Final Demand 6 B 150 20 2 95 C 500 5 • Write the matrix with the intersectorial flows. • Which is the sector with the highest added value? • Assuming that L=(I-A)-1=I+A, determine the sector that has to import more to satisfy his own final demand. Exercise • Matrix: A B C A 5 30 6 B 2 3 2 C 5 20 5 • Input- Output Model: A B C P. Final Total A 5 30 6 120 161 B 2 3 2 150 157 C 5 20 5 500 530 Importação 65 0 95 Valor acrescentado 84 104 422 Total 161 157 530 • Matrix L=I+A 0.031 0.191 0.011 0.012 0.019 0.031 0.127 LR= 1.031 0.191 0.011 0.004 0.012 1.019 0.004 0.009 0.031 0.127 1.009 0.404 0.000 0.179 1 im=IM i /X i = 1 1 Exercise • For each vector of final demand we compute the change in total output and the change in imports: x Lf m m c x m c Lf 0.031 0.191 0.011 0.012 0.019 0.031 0.127 LR= 1.031 0.191 0.011 0.004 0.012 1.019 0.004 0.009 0.031 0.127 1.009 0.404 0.000 0.179 iT 1 im=IM i /X i = 1 1 PF={1,0,0} f ´ 1 0 0 PF={0,1,0} f ´ 0 1 0 PF={0,0,1} f ´ 0 0 1 X 1.031 IM 0.416 X 0.191 IM 0.000 X 0.011 IM 0.005 0.012 0.000 1.019 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.031 0.006 0.127 0.000 1.009 0.181 Input-Output • Application to the energy sector? Input-Output • Energy needs for different economic scenarios – Using the input-output analysis to build a consistent economic scenario and then combining that information with the Energetic Balance – Using the input-output analysis where one or more sectors define the energy sector – What about embodied energy? Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • The input-ouput model f E =n×1 vector of embodied energy in final demand Sectors (square matrix) Total Energy in outputs Intermediate Inputs Embodied Energy in Final Demand Inputs Sectors Outputs Z E i f E pi E i´Z E Z E =n×n matrix of intersectorial transactions of embodied energy Primary Energy Inputs Total Energy in Inputs pi E =1×n vector of direct energy inputs (direct primary energy consumption and embodied energy in imports ) Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • The input-ouput model A Direct Energy Use B C Z E i f E pi E i´Z E Final Demand Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • The input-ouput model A Direct Energy Use B Final Demand C 𝑬𝑨 𝑬𝑩 + 𝟏 𝑬𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑨 𝟏 𝟏 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑶𝑨 𝑺𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑪 = 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑶𝑩 𝑺𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑶𝑪 𝑺𝑪 Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • The input-ouput model A Direct Energy Use B Final Demand C 𝑬𝑨 𝑬𝑩 + 𝟏 𝑬𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑨 𝟏 𝟏 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑨𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑨 𝒎𝑶𝑨 𝑺𝑨 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑩𝑪 = 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑩 𝒎𝑶𝑩 𝑺𝑩 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑪𝑪 𝑪𝑬𝑶𝑪 𝒎𝑶𝑪 𝑺𝑪 • We can compute the embodied energy intensities for all sectors CEOi because we have n equations with n unknowns Input-Output Analysis • Can be used to compute embodied “something”, e.g., energy or CO2, that is distributed with productive mass flows knowing: – (assuming) that outputs from the same operation have the same specific embodied value – the vector with specific direct emissions of “CO2” for each operation – the diagonal matrix with the residue formation factors for each operation – the matrix with the mass fractions • There are things that should flow with monetary values instead of mass flows – Economic causality instead of physical causality Input-Output Analysis: Embodied CO2 • The input-ouput model f E =n×1 vector of embodied CO2 in final demand Sectors (square matrix) Total CO2 in outputs Intermediate Inputs Embodied CO2 in Final Demand Inputs Sectors Outputs Z E i f E pi E i´Z E Z E =n×n matrix of intersectorial transactions of embodied energy Primary CO2 Inputs Total CO2 in Inputs pi E =1×n (direct CO2 emissions & embodied CO2 in imports ) Input-Output Analysis: Motivation • Direct and indirect carbon emissions Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy Z E i f E pi E i´Z E x E • Embodied energy intensity, CEi, in outputs from sector i is constant, i.e., z E11 ... piA E ... 1 1 ... 1 z 21 ... ... ... ... E pin z n1 ... piA CE1m11 ... CE m 1 1 ... 1 2 21 ... ... pin CEn mn1 ... z E1n ... ... ... ... ... z E nn ... ... ... ... ... CE1m1n CE1m1S A CE m S ... ... 2 2 B ... ... ... ... CEn mnn CEn mn S n • Sector 1 receives (direct + indirect) energy which is distributed to its intended output m1S1 Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • Simplifying per unit of mass: 1 m1S1 ... 0 0 ... ... 0 0 ... 0 ... ... 1 0 PI1 1 ... ... ... ... mn Sn PI n 0 f11 1 S1 ... 0 0 ... ... ... ... 0 0 ... ... ... 0 ... ... 1 S n f n1 f11 S1 ... ... f n1 S1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... f1n S n ... ... f nn S n T ... ... ... ... m1S1 ... 0 0 ... ... 0 0 ... 0 ... ... 1 f1n ... ... f nn T 0 1 ... 1 ... ... mn S n 1 T CE1m11 ... ... CEn mn1 CE1 PI1 m1S1 CE1 ... CE ... 2 ... ... ... CE PI m S CE n n n n n CE1 CE1,dir CE1 CE CE CE 2 2,dir 2 ... ... ... CE CE CE n , dir n n ... ... ... ... ... CE1m1n CE1 CE ... ... 2 ... ... ... ... CEn mnn CE n Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • Simplifying per unit of mass: f11 S1 ... ... f n1 S1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... f1n S n ... ... f nn S n T CE1 CE1,dir CE1 CE CE CE 2 2,dir 2 ... ... ... CE CE CE n , dir n n CE1,dir pi1 m1S1 CE ... 2,dir ... ... CE pi m S n , dir n n n • We can compute the embodied energy intensities for all sectors CEi because we have n equations with n unknowns – We must know mass flows, residue formation factors and direct energies intensities Input-Output Analysis: Embodied Energy • Simplifying per unit of mass: f11 S1 ... ... f n1 S1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... f1n S n ... ... f nn S n T CE1 CE1,dir CE1 CE CE CE 2 2,dir 2 ... ... ... CE CE CE n , dir n n • We can compute the change in embodied energy intensities for all sectors with the change in direct energy intensities A *´ce ce ce dir x Ax f x Lf x Lf ce I A *´ ce dir L * ce dir 1 ce L * ce dir A *´ce Sˆ 1A´ce