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AS Economics Answers inflation, or too little, so there will still be unemployment. A, B and C would all help the government achieve its objective. 4 Answer B The instruments of monetary policy are changes in the money supply, interest rates and the exchange rate. A, C and D are examples of fiscal policy instruments. 5 Answer B If households save most of the rise in disposable income, consumption will not rise by much and so AD will not increase significantly. A, C and D will all increase AD. 6 Answer A If people expect their wages to rise and interest rates to remain high for only a short time, they may not change their level of consumption despite a rise in interest rates. This is because people will feel optimistic that they will be able to afford high interest payments and they will not have to pay them for long. 8 Managing the economy 1 The nature of government policy Activity 1, page 291 a An increase in investment and increased international price competitiveness. Low inflation, especially if it is stable, makes it easier for firms to plan ahead. Greater certainty over future costs and profits is likely to encourage firms to expand their output. The country may become more price competitive if its inflation rate is below that of its main competitors. b By encouraging firms to invest and by increasing international competitiveness. Higher investment and increased demand for the country’s products from at home and abroad should raise aggregate demand and increase output. The rise in output will increase the country’s economic growth and should reduce unemployment. Data response questions, page 294 Activity 2, page 292 a Advances in technology and changes in the rate of interest. Advances in technology make new capital equipment more productive and so encourage firms to replace at least some of their capital equipment with new equipment. Changes in the rate of interest affect consumption, the cost of borrowing and the opportunity cost of using retained profits for investment. A lower rate of interest is likely to increase consumption and thus demand for firms’ products, which should encourage firms to expand. It will also make it cheaper for firms to borrow to finance investment, and less interest will be forgone if firms use profits to buy capital goods instead of placing them in bank accounts. b The existence of the hidden economy. Certain economic activity is not declared either because the activity itself is illegal or because people want to evade paying tax on the earnings they receive. If the size of the hidden economy increases, even if official GDP does not change, the country will be enjoying a higher output. c Adding up all the output produced in the country and calculating the total expenditure on the country’s output. d An increase in AD will shift the AD curve to the right. If the economy is initially operating below the full employment level as shown in Figure 2, the increase in AD will raise output. a Activity in the housing market and changes in employment. Increased activity in the housing market would suggest that the rate of inflation might rise in the future for two reasons: increased demand for houses will probably push up their price; when people move homes they spend more on furniture, carpets and decoration. Higher house prices also make homeowners feel better off and encourage people to spend more. Falling unemployment may push up the price level for three main reasons: an increasing shortage of workers; increased power of trade unions which will push up wage rates; increased confidence in the future which will raise spending. b By encouraging an increase in consumption and investment. If the interest rate had been lower, households would have had less incentive to save, borrowing would have been cheaper and the lower mortgage interest payments would have left them with more discretionary income to spend. This would probably have increased consumption, which would have increased output. The higher consumption and reduced cost of borrowing would probably have increased investment. An increase in the quantity and quality of capital goods (if the new capital goods embody advanced technology) would have increased aggregate demand further and shifted the LRAS curve to the right. Multiple choice questions, page 294 Figure 2 1 Answer B Changes in the rate of interest are an instrument of monetary policy. Fiscal policy covers changes in taxes and government spending. Regional policy seeks to influence the distribution of people and firms and includes measures such as tax incentives for firms and government spending to regenerate depressed areas. Supply-side policies seek to increase the productive potential of the economy. 2 Answer B Economic growth and full employment are most likely to benefit from increases in domestic spending, because higher domestic spending is likely to increase output, which will create extra jobs. Higher domestic spending may, however, cause demand-pull inflation. The higher domestic spending may also result in more imports being purchased and exports being diverted to the home market and so a deterioration in the current account of the balance of payments. 3 Answer D If the government miscalculates the size of the multiplier effect it is likely to increase its spending by too much, which will lead to AD3 LRAS AD2 P3 AD1 price level AD AD3 P2 P1 P AD2 AD1 AD 0 53 Y Y1 real GDP (output) Yfe Activity 5, page 298 Higher output usually leads to a fall in unemployment, although there may be a time delay because firms often want to see that the rise in demand will last. If AD shifts to AD2, full employment will be achieved. There is a risk, however, that the increase in AD may lead to inflation. An increase in AD to AD3 will cause a significant rise in the price level. New classical economists argue that an increase in AD will push up the price level but have no impact on output in the long run. Figure 3 shows that if an economy operates at full employment, an increase in AD will be purely inflationary. a b c d expenditure reducing expenditure switching expenditure switching expenditure reducing Activity 6, page 299 a A budget surplus occurs when government revenue exceeds government expenditure. b It may not have much impact on the economy if much of the extra spending is not passed on in the economy either because it is saved or because it is spent on imports. Figure 3 Multiple choice questions, page 301 price level AD1 AD LRAS 1 Answer C Fiscal policy measures involve changes in government spending and taxation. An increase in jobseeker’s allowance will involve higher government spending. B and D are monetary policy measures. 2 Answer B An expansionary fiscal policy measure is a change in government spending or taxation which increases AD. A cut in excise duties is likely to raise consumption. A and C are expansionary monetary policy measures. D is a deflationary fiscal policy measure. 3 Answer C To tackle high demand-pull inflation a government is likely to try to reduce AD. A rise in income tax would reduce disposable income, which would probably reduce consumption. A and B may increase inflation and D is not a fiscal policy measure. 4 Answer A If there are time lags, there is a risk that by the time policy measures take effect economic conditions may have changed, making the measures ineffective or counterproductive. B, C and D would make fiscal policy more effective. 5 Answer B Figure 5 shows both an increase in AD and an increase in LRAS. An increase in government spending on training would have raised AD and, if it increased labour productivity, it would also have increased LRAS. A and D may have reduced AD and C may have reduced both AD and LRAS. 6 Answer D An automatic stabiliser is a form of government spending or taxation that changes to offset changes in economic activity without any deliberate alteration in government policy. When the economy is booming, corporation tax will rise to dampen down the high level of economic activity. A, B and C usually change as the result of a deliberate government decision. P1 P AD1 AD 0 Y real GDP (output) 2 Fiscal policy Activity 1, page 295 a 29% b 27.51% c Government spending was expected to exceed government revenue, resulting in a budget deficit of £11 billion. Activity 2, page 296 a Direct taxes are taxes on income, such as income tax and corporation tax; indirect taxes are taxes on spending, such as VAT and excise duties. b It was a reflationary budget because increasing government spending and reducing taxes would have increased aggregate demand. c The budget changes, by increasing aggregate demand, would probably have raised output, which should have raised employment and reduced unemployment. Activity 3, page 297 a By stimulating economic growth. If tax cuts result in a rise in output, incomes and spending will increase. The lower rates will be more than offset by people paying taxes on higher incomes and spending more, and firms paying taxes on higher profits. b By increasing AD. They can also increase the economic growth rate in the long term by stimulating a rise in resources. For instance, cutting corporation tax may encourage firms to invest more. Data response questions, page 301 a A cut in income tax and a rise in state pensions would increase aggregate demand. A cut in income tax would raise disposable income, and the increased purchasing power would be likely increase consumption. Higher state pensions would raise the spending power of pensioners and would be likely to increase consumption. b Reflationary fiscal policy involves changes in government spending and/or changes in taxation designed to increase aggregate demand. Deflationary fiscal policy also involves changes in government spending and taxation but is designed to reduce aggregate demand. c i It will increase AD. By increasing the country’s infrastructure it will also raise the productive capacity of the economy. Figure 6 shows both AD and LRAS curves shifting to the right, causing output to rise. Activity 4, page 298 a The cuts would reduce aggregate demand. There would be an initial fall as the government spends less, and there is a knockon effect as, for instance, firms supplying hospitals spend less on capital goods and equipment, food and medicines from other firms. b i By reducing aggregate demand, such cuts may reduce demand-pull inflation. ii They may increase inflationary pressure because cuts in these areas may reduce the quality of the workforce and so reduce LRAS. Shifting the LRAS curve to the left will push up the price level if the economy was previously operating at or close to full capacity. 54 of the components of AD, and this may increase investment, another component of AD. b Because it is difficult to decide which items will give the best indication of future changes in AD. Figure 6 LRAS LRAS1 AD1 price level AD Activity 4, page 304 a Because it would increase AD and may result in labour shortages, which would push up wage rates and costs of production. b Low interest rates may encourage consumers and firms to borrow more money than they can afford to repay. c Because the economy had come close to experiencing a recession. The MPC was concerned that at a time when UK output was rising by only a small percentage, a rise in interest rates could cause output to fall. P AD 0 Y AD1 Y1 real GDP ii It will reduce disposable income, which is likely to reduce AD. Its effect on the economy will depend on the initial position of the AD curve on the LRAS curve and the size of the increase in taxation. Figure 7 shows the AD curve moving from a position near to full capacity to one where there is significant spare capacity, which lowers output and the price level. The LRAS curve may shift to the left if the rise in income tax causes some people to leave the workforce, for example through earlier retirement. Activity 5, page 305 a Poland was experiencing mainly cost-push inflation. Polish firms’ costs were rising as a result of higher transport costs caused by rising oil prices. Polish food processing firms were also experiencing higher costs because of a poor harvest and the imposition of tariffs on a number of farm products. b A rise in interest rates above 20% would be likely to reduce consumption and investment by a large amount. Such a high rise would significantly increase the cost of borrowing, reduce the discretionary income of people who have borrowed in the past and encourage saving. It would also discourage investment by making borrowing more expensive, increasing the opportunity cost of investing and reducing the expected returns from investing. Figure 7 LRAS AD price level AD1 Activity 6, page 305 P 3 Monetary policy a By encouraging consumption and investment. Lower interest rates would reduce the return from saving, make borrowing cheaper and increase the spending power of mortgage holders. They would reduce the direct and opportunity cost of investing and increase the expected return from buying capital goods. They may also stimulate domestic economic activity if there is a fall in the exchange rate. This is because exports will become cheaper and imports more expensive, which will encourage a switch in demand from foreign to domestic products. b If firms and households are pessimistic about the future. If households think that unemployment is likely to rise in the future, they may be reluctant to spend more now. Similarly, if firms think that demand will not rise in the next year or two or may even decline, they will not want to expand their capacity. Activity 1, page 302 Activity 7, page 306 a b c d e a Because they improve the current account position by reducing demand for both foreign and domestically produced products. b A government could lower its exchange rate, as an expenditure switching measure, or raise income tax, as an expenditure reducing measure. P1 AD AD1 0 Y1 real GDP Y d Deflationary fiscal policy designed to reduce inflation may also cause unemployment. If the government miscalculates the size of the multiplier, a cut in its spending may lower AD by more than intended, causing output and employment to fall. fiscal policy monetary policy fiscal policy fiscal policy monetary policy Activity 2, page 303 Activity 8, page 306 a It will make export prices high and import prices low. b Because it will make imports more price competitive. Some consumers may switch their purchases from domestically produced to foreign products. c Because it will raise the price of imports. Costs of production will increase because imported raw materials will be more expensive. The price of imported finished products will increase and there will be less pressure on domestic firms to keep down their price rises. a If the resulting rise in import prices leads to inflation. b Because it may reduce demand for their products and will make it more expensive for them to borrow. Multiple choice questions, page 308 1 Answer D Monetary policy measures include changes in the money supply, the exchange rate and the rate of interest. A is a supply-side measure and B and C are fiscal policy measures. 2 Answer D A rise in the external value of the pound will lower the price of imports. This is likely to reduce inflationary pressure. By making exports more expensive and imports cheaper, it may also reduce aggregate demand. Activity 3, page 303 a A direct relationship would be expected between changes in the money supply and aggregate demand. An increase in the money supply is likely to increase consumption, which is one 55 3 Answer C A reduction in consumer spending will reduce demand-pull inflation. A and D may raise inflation. So may B in the short run. 4 Answer B To reduce inflation occurring when the economy is operating at full capacity, the government is likely to seek to reduce AD. It could do this by increasing interest rates, as this would probably reduce consumption, investment and possibly net exports. A, C and D would all be likely to increase AD. 5 Answer C A fall in interest rates will reduce the cost of borrowing to finance investment and the opportunity cost of investing. As well as making it cheaper to invest, the lower rate of interest will stimulate investment as consumption would be expected to increase. 6 Answer C If accurate information is not available, there is the risk that the direction and rate of change in a monetary policy measure may be inappropriate. 4 Supply-side policies Activity 1, page 309 a It is interventionist. The government spends money on training and teaching adults because it thinks that, if left to free market forces, there would be underconsumption of training and adult education. b It will increase labour productivity if the training makes workers more skilful, meaning that they can follow more complicated instructions, work with more advanced technology, tackle more tasks and be more innovative and adaptable. However, if the training is of a poor quality or is in inappropriate areas, the productivity of the workforce may not rise. Activity 2, page 310 With lower corporation tax, firms will have more funds to invest, and they will pay less tax on any future profits they earn. As a result they are likely to buy more capital goods, which will increase AD. The extra capital goods and the advanced technology they are likely to include will increase the quantity of goods and services the country is capable of producing. This will shift the LRAS curve to the right. Data response questions, page 308 a If households, workers and firms do not expect high inflation they will not act in a way which causes inflation. Households will not increase their spending now, workers will not press for large wage rises and firms will not raise their prices by a large amount. b A cut in interest rates would be expected to increase consumption, investment and net exports (via a fall in the exchange rate). The resulting increase in AD is illustrated in Figure 3 by a shift in the AD curve to the right. An increase in investment will also shift the LRAS curve to the right. If both AD and LRAS increase, real GDP will increase. The effect on the price level will depend on the initial position and the size of the relative changes. In Figure 3 it remains unchanged at P. Figure 3 LRAS LRAS1 AD1 price level AD AD1 AD 0 Figure 3 LRAS LRAS1 a Illiterate workers will find it difficult to read instructions, communicate with other workers, fill in forms, work with capital equipment, benefit from training and keep up-to-date with developments. b If the government underestimates the socially optimum level or lacks the necessary funds. It can be difficult to estimate the private and external benefits of education. To spend more on education, a government may have to reduce its spending on other areas or raise taxation, and it may be reluctant to do this. price level AD P AD1 AD Y real GDP Y1 Activity 3, page 311 AD1 0 Y real GDP Y1 Activity 4, page 311 a A greater quantity and quality of training should reduce unemployment and cut firms’ costs. Better trained staff will be more skilful. This should make it easier for them to find a new job if they lose their current job and so should reduce frictional unemployment. It should also increase their productivity. This will lower firms’ costs and make them more internationally competitive. b Because of the cost involved and concern that they will not benefit from the expenditure. As the extract mentions, training staff can involve costs such as course fees, time off work and the need to have temporary replacements. Firms that pay for the training may fail to benefit if the trained staff leave. c A rise in the rate of interest would increase home buyers’ mortgage interest repayments. This would reduce their discretionary income and purchasing power. A higher rate of interest may also cause problems for exporters because it is likely to encourage an inflow of hot money into the country, which would push up the exchange rate. A higher exchange rate will push up the price of exports. This will make it more difficult for exporters to sell their products on foreign markets. d The passage mentions the problem of time lags and the difficulty of influencing AD when households and firms have firm views about future economic prospects. Interest rate changes, for example, can take up to 18 months to have an impact. By then, economic conditions may have changed and instead of, for example, offsetting inflationary pressures, a rise in interest rates may contribute to deflationary pressures. A cut in interest rates or an increase in the money supply will not be effective in increasing AD if households and firms are pessimistic about future economic prospects. Multiple choice questions, page 313 1 Answer D The aim of supply-side policies is to increase the productive potential of the economy. The productive potential of the economy is shown by the vertical part of the LRAS curve. A shift 56 to the right of the LRAS curve means that the economy is capable of producing more goods and services. 2 Answer D Government grants for retraining are designed to improve the skills of the workforce and so increase the economy’s productive capacity. A and C are monetary policy instruments. An increase in income tax is likely to reduce AD (contractionary fiscal policy). A cut in income tax may be a supply-side policy if its main aim is to increase incentives for workers and potential workers rather than to increase AD. 3 Answer A A cut in corporation tax may encourage firms to expand and take on more staff. B is a monetary policy measure which is likely to reduce AD and employment. A rise in the minimum wage may increase unemployment if it is set too high and an increase in jobseeker’s allowance may reduce the incentive for unemployed people to find work. 4 Answer B Free market supply-side policies seek to increase the productive potential of the economy by reducing government intervention. This should increase economic incentives for workers and firms and raise efficiency. 5 Answer A Supporters of free market supply-side policies believe that the ability of a country to produce goods and services will be increased by a reduction in government intervention, which hinders the operation of free market forces. Removing laws, rules and regulations should enable firms to perform more efficiently. 6 Answer C If the economy is operating well below full employment and there is no increase in AD, a shift to the right of the LRAS curve will have no effect on output (see Figure 4). In the other three cases output will rise (see Figure 5). Figure 5 A LRAS LRAS1 price level AD AD 0 Y Y1 real GDP LRAS B LRAS1 AD1 price level AD AD1 AD 0 Y real GDP D AD1 LRAS LRAS1 price level AD Y1 Figure 4 AD1 AD LRAS LRAS1 0 price level AD Y1 d i Lone parents may find it difficult to work because of the costs of childcare. The jobs they may have the skills for may be low paid, and once they have paid childcare costs they may be worse off working than receiving state benefits. Some lone parents may be concerned that they will not be able to spend sufficient time with their children. ii More lone parents entering the workforce will increase the supply of labour to the economy. This will raise the productive potential of the economy, shifting the LRAS curve to the right. The effect may be particularly significant if the economy is approaching full employment and experiencing labour shortages. AD 0 Y real GDP Y real GDP Data response questions, page 314 a i Productivity is output per unit of factor input. Labour productivity is usually defined as output per worker hour. ii Economic growth is often taken to refer to increases in real GDP. It can also be defined as increases in an economy’s productive potential since for output to continue to increase the quantity and quality of resources have to rise. b Trend growth is the expected increase in potential output over time. A rise in productivity would enable an economy to produce more with existing resources and so would increase the output it is capable of producing. c It should reduce unemployment because it will increase geographical mobility. If unemployed people find it easier to travel to where the work is, this should reduce frictional unemployment. 57 58