Download Disaster Resilient Cities in Middle East and North

Disaster Resilient Cities in
Middle East and North Africa
(MENA)
Asmita Tiwari
Disaster Risk Management Specialist
Middle East and North Africa Region
World Bank
Workshop on Urban Risk Reduction
Damascus, November 4th, 2009
Outline
1. Natural Disasters and Climate Change
Impacts in MENA
2. Cities at a greater risk
3. What can be done? - Urban Risk
Reduction Agenda
4. Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster
Preparedness in Coastal Cities of North
Africa
1. Natural Disasters and
Climate Change in MNA
Natural Disaster Trend in MNA
MENA
region number of disasters 1980 - 2006
Disaster
(1980-2006)
Source: EM DAT and WB
30
25
number of disas
20
3 per. Mov. Avg
disasters)
15
Linear (number
10
number of disasters 1980 5
- 2006
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
0
year
number of disasters
3 per. Mov. Avg. (number of
disasters)
Linear (number of disasters)
Natural Disaster Impacts
• 276 disasters in last 25 years
• 120 disasters in last 5 years
• Nearly 100,000 people killed and nearly 1
million rendered homeless in last 25
years
• Average Annual Economic Loss of 1
Billion USD
Climate Change Impacts
• Temperature rise 1º and 3º C.
• 0.5 m Sea level rise
• North Africa: 6 to 25 million people may face
coastal flooding
• Severe impacts
• Egypt and Tunisia
• Cities of Alexandria, Rosetta, Damietta,
and Port Said
Water availability will decrease
20-30% in most of MENA…
Percent
in run-off
expected
by 2050
Multi-model average
for thechange
winter and
summer
precipitation
(A1B SRES scenario)
Punch line: run-off is projected to drop by 20 to 30% in most of MENA by 2050
Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature
…while temperature
will increase 2-4 degrees
Average of global surface temperature from IPCC AOGCM models, A1B SRES scenario
Variation in degrees centigrade
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Punch line: the average prediction for MENA is of up to 2 degrees increase in the next 1520 years, and over 4 degrees for the end of the century (the increase is higher for faster
emission scenarios)
2. Cities at a higher risk
Disaster Risk
Hazard
Vulnerability
– Climate Change
– Human
Interventions
– Environmental
Degradation
RISK
– Increasing
Urban Poverty
– Limited
Institutional
capacity
Exposure
– Rapid Urbanization
– Ineffective urban
management
Hazards
Location of Urban Areas
Exposure: Increasing
Urbanization
• High urbanization rate: average 70%
• By 2030, population will reach 430 million,
of which 280 million will be urban (UN)
• Coastal cities will grow from 60 million
(2000) to 90 million in 2030
Vulnerability
Increasing Urban Poverty
• Slum population is increasing• More settlements in hazard prone areas
Limited Institutional Capacity
• Centralized set-up
• Limited financial, technical, and enforcement
capacity
• Larger challenges of urbanization and water
scarcity
• Local units to manage disasters with limited budget
and implementation power
• Focus on post disaster response
High Risk
Growing number of Hazards, Growing exposureLarge concentration of population and economic
activities, and growing vulnerability
2. What can be done?
Urban Risk Reduction Agenda
Steps for Urban DRM
1. Risk identification: Understand the problem
2. Risk reduction: Do what is possible to reduce
losses ex ante
1. Integrating DRM in Master Planning
2. Improving Building codes design and enforcement
3. Disaster Proofing Buildings and infrastructure
3. Risk transfer and financing: For the risk you
can’t eliminate
1. Risk identification and
assessment
• Understanding the cities’ hazard exposure,
the economic and social losses, the
probability of loss exceedance, and
knowing where the risk is concentrated.
• Two Level of Assessments– Rapid- stakeholder consultation
• from $50,000
– Detailed - Hazard maps, GIS systems,
• from $250,000
Detailed- PROBABILISTIC RISK MODELING
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
Physical Damage
Disaster impact Analsyis
- Scenario or Stochastic INFRAESTRUCTURE
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
Use of Risk Assessment
Hazard and risk
visualization
Indicators for risk
management
Hazard assessment
for infrastructure
design
Land use planning
and zoning
Damage scenarios
for emergency
response
Benefit-Cost
analysis for
retrofitting
Immediate damage
estimation
Analysis of financial
exposure
2. Risk Reduction
• Investing in structural and nonstructural
measures to mitigate physical damage
and loss of life.
• Need to understand what are the priorities
in this area and how they can best be
financed and maintained.
Components of risk reduction
Non-structural:
•
•
•
•
•
Institutional Arrangement
Land use planning
Design and construction practices/ building codes
Early warning systems
Preparedness and response plans
Structural measures:
•
•
•
•
Infrastructure upgrading
Drainage systems
Building retrofitting
Sea wall/ dams
Non Structural Risk Reduction
Example- $80 Million Disaster
Vulnerability Reduction Project in Bogota,
Columbia
Institutional Strengthening
• Developing Institutional Capacity at Regional,
National, and Local levels
• Supporting National Systems
• Legislation creation and update
Risk Identificaton and Landuse
Planning- Bogota
Socio-economic strata
Number of floors
Cadastral value
24
Risk Preparedness & Response
• Mass communication campaigns
• Training masons for building safer
• Equipment & training for first responders
Risk Preparedness & Response
- Honduras
•Community Early Warning
Systems
• Emergency plans
• Awareness and communication
campaigns
monitoring
forecast
alert
Structural Risk Reduction -Infrastructure
Design and Upgrade
Gujarat, India – Infrastructure Upgrade
$250 Million-Housing/
Infrastructure upgrade
•Retrofitting of critical
public buildings (2,848)
• Improvement of state road
network (870 km) -101
bridges repaired and 28
bridges reconstructed
28
Structural - Drainage Improvements
Taiz Municipal Development and Flood
Protection Project,
Sana’a Saylah project, Yemen
Structural Risk Reduction - RETROFFITING
BEFORE
Bogota School Retrofitting
Program
AFTER
Schools Retrofitted 2004-2008 :
Total Budget: $200 Million
201
3. Risk Financing/Transfer
• Mostly at national level
• Once the financial capacity to absorb
catastrophic events is understood, need to
identify the most suitable financial
instruments to address any funding gaps
• Self-insurance, private sector insurance,
catastrophe bonds, contingency financing,
safety nets, calamity funds, microinsurance, informal arrangements, etc.
Some Issues to Consider
• Coordination challenge: disaster touch upon
every single sector of development
• Centralization vs. decentralization: need to get
the balance right
• Public education and awareness is key:
memories fade quickly
• Role of each stakeholder: natl and local govts;
private sector; scientific community; local
communities – we all have a responsibility
WB MNA
URBAN RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES
• Integrate hazard risk management in city
development plans in Sana’a, Tripoli and Cairo
(proposed)
• Application of the rapid risk assessment tool, City
Primer, in Amman, Damascus, Sana’a, Tripoli and
Alexandria (Phase I) to be followed by detailed risk
modeling and assessments, preparedness action
plans and infrastructure investments plans
•Coastal Cities of North Africa Study
•Analyze and document the findings from the above
in a regional urban risk reduction strategy
Thanks You!