Download Future Climate Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh

Climate Change Scenarios
Requirement for Bangladesh
Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Associate Professor
Institute of Water and Flood Management
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Outline

Overview of IWFM and BUET

Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Bangladesh

Problems to assess future Hazards and Risks of
Bangladesh

Requirements of Climate Change Scenarios
Bangladesh University of Engineering
and Technology (BUET)

BUET has been established in 1962.

Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Masters
and PhD programs is 1000. About 5,500 students
are pursuing undergraduate and postgraduate
studies in Engineering, Architecture, Planning
and Science.

500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments under
5 Faculties and 3 Institutes.
http://www.buet.ac.bd/
Institute of Water and Flood
Management

Established in 1947 to pursues research
and capacity development in the field of
water and flood management.

16 Full time Faculty members specialized
in water and environment.
Academic Activities

Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate
Diploma in Water Resources Development.

Conduct short courses.

Publish Research Bulletin.

Organize International conference ICWFM
2009
Research…

Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision
Support Tool for National Water Management.

Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed
Rainfall Data.

Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds.

Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water
Development in meeting Future Water Demand.

Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of
Indian Sub-Continent.
Climate Change Study Cell


IWFM has established a
climate change study cell in
2008
The vision of the Cell is to
establish itself as the
premier knowledge center
on climate change risk and
adaptation for Bangladesh.
Chief Guest was
Minister of Disaster Mng.
Launching Ceremony
On March 08, 2009
http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/
Bangladesh: A south Asian Country
Topography of Bangladesh
Himalays
India
Bangladesh
Bay of Bengal
Natural Vulnerabilities of
Bangladesh
Floods
 Cyclone
 Droughts
 Sea Level Rise
 Salinity
 River Erosion

Too much water during monsoon
More Floods
F l_ p r o n e .s h p
S e v e r e R iv e r F lo o d i n g
M o d e r a t e R i v e r F l o o d in g
L o w R iv e r F lo o d in g
S e v e r e F la s h F l o o d i n g
M o d e r a t e F l a s h F l o o d in g
L o w F la s h F l o o d i n g
S e v e r e T id a l S u rg e
M o d e r a t e T id a l S u r g e
N o t F lo o d P r o n e
Water shortage during dry periods More Drought
DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)
Very Severe Drought
Severe Drought
Moderate Drought
Less Moderate Drought
Slight Drought
EXISTING DROUGHT
Very Slight to Nil
Severe & Moderate
Moderate & Less Moderate
Sunderbans
Forest
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2030
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2075
Cyclone

Because of the funnel shaped
coast of the Bay of Bengal,
Bangladesh very often
becomes the landing ground
of cyclones formed in the
Bay of Bengal.

Till today, a total of 174
severe cyclones (with wind
speeds of more than 54
km/hr) formed in the Bay of
Bengal.
Recent Cyclone SIDR
Formed
Enter to land
Dissipated
Highest winds
Lowest pressure
Fatalities
Damage
Areas affected
November 11, 2007
November 15, 2007
November 16, 2007
215 km/h (130 mph)
944 hPa (mbar)
≥3,447
$450 million (2007 USD)
Bangladesh and WB, India
Recent Cyclone SIDR
Sundarbans
Satellite
Image
Some photographs after cyclone passed over the coast
Sea Level Rise
Summary of Climate Change
induced disasters






Increase of intensity and duration of floods,
water logging, flash flood.
Increase of moisture stress (droughts)
Intensified storm surge, wave heights, erratic
precipitation
Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the country
during dry season)
Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness,
ecosystem degradation etc)
Sea Level rise up to 69 cm.
Need for Future Risk Assessment
General Circulation Model
 Regional Circulation Model
 Statistical Downscaling
 Impact studies

Steps of assessing impact of
climate change
Regional Climate Change Modeling
in Bangladesh

PRECIS regional
climate modeling
developed by Hadley
Center, UK is now
running in Climate
Change Study Cell at
IWFM,BUET.

Currently running
baseline (1960-1990)
and A1B (1949-2100)
scenarios over the
Bangladesh region.
Bangladesh region for PRECIS
Grids: 88 x 88
 Spatial Res. 25km
 Predict up to 3 hourly
 Needs more than 100
GB free space.
 Uses LBC data from
GCM (e.g. HadCM3)
 Data available for A2,
B2, A1B scenarios.

Predicting Rainfall
2030
2050
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Predicting Maximum Temperature
2030
2050
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Predicting Minimum Temperature
2030
2050
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Climatic Condition of Bangladesh
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has
increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

27
(c)
26
25
y = 0.0103x + 25.428
2
R = 0.2996
24
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
1948
23
Change of Temperature (0C/year)
Impact on Agriculture

Wheat and Boro coverage area of Bangladesh
Need more realistic scenarios
Thank you