Download Medium-Term Energy Development*

Medium-Term Energy Development*
March 2014
Directorate of Energy, Telecommunications and Informatics
Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency
* A draft for the 3rd RPJMN
Slide 1
introduction
Slide 2
Prolog
• Indonesia will have ‘a new elected’ President in October
2014
• RPJMN 2015-2019 (National Medium-Term Development
Plan) should be formulated
– by new President
– the elaboration of the Vision, Mission, and Program of the (elected)
President.
– will be elaborated into the Annual Government Working Plan
– implementation of the RPJPN (3rd phase of the RPJPN)
• RPJPN: National Long-Term Development Plan
– Long term strategy as guidance for mid-term national development
plan.
– A 20 year plan (2005-2025)
Slide 3
Development Planning System
* At Central Government Level
20 year period
National Long-term
Development Plan
RPJP National
Guidance
5 year period
National Mid-term
Development Plan
RPJM
Nasional
Guidance
Input
Government Annual Working
Plan
Reference
RKP
Harmonized
Guidance
Annual Government Budget
Plan
Annual Government Budget
Ministry Strategic Plan (Midterm)
Guidance
Elaborated
Annually
Renstra
KL
Renja KL
Ministry Annual Working Plan
Guidance
RAPBN
RKA-KL
APBN
Rincian
APBN
Annual Ministry Working
Budget Plan
Annual Government Budget
Detail
Slide 4
direction
Slide 5
Directions for Mid-Term Plan Formulation
RPJPN (Long-Term Plan)
Goal
•
•
•
Staging
•
3rd RPJMN
•
Achieving income per capita equivalent to
middle income country (MIC) in 2025
Unemployment level below 5%
Poverty level below 5%
Emphasizing attainment of economic
competitiveness based on natural
resources, human resources, and science and
technology.
Focusing on:
• Electricity supply reliable and efficient
• Starting nuclear for electricity utilization*
Basic
infrastructure
must be
fulfilled
MP3EI*
Malaysia
* Master Plan on Acceleration and Expansion of Economic Development
2010
2025
PDB: USD 4.0 – 4.5 Trillion
income/capita: USD 14,250
– 15,500
PDB: USD 700 Billion
income/capita: USD 3,000
2045
PDB: USD 15.0 – 17.5 Trillion
Income/capita:
USD 44,500 – 49,000
USD 16,794
Thailand
USD 9.503
Philippines
USD 4,410
Vietnam
USD 3,788
Sumber: IMF Data, 2012; in US Dollars
Slide 6
Necessary Condition
Projected GDP Growth per Capita
source: BPS Data, 2012, Bappenas projection
Economic growth vs infrastructure
investment in Indonesia (19972013)
$16,000.00
10%
10.00
10.00%
5.00
5.00%
-
0.00%
$14,000.00
11%
$12,000.00
12%
$10,000.00
$8,000.00
$6,000.00
2012: USD 3,563
(5.00)
-5.00%
$4,000.00
Growth
$2,000.00
(10.00)
-10.00%
Total Infrastructure
Investment Share of
GDP, %
$-
(15.00)
-15.00%
Investment in infrastructure has direct impacts to economic growth. To achieve MIC status, Indonesia
needs 12% nominal economic growth.
Slide 7
* Source: Background Study Presentation
current condition
Slide 8
Indonesia
Selected Indicators for 2011,
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics
Country
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Japan
Population
(million)
242.33
69.52
94.85
28.86
127.83
GDP
(billion USD; 2005)
402.19
210.25
136.26
187.28
4621.97
GDP PPP
(billion USD; 2005)
992.1
530.78
345.03
409.05
3932.2
GDP PPP/pop
(USD; 2005/cap)
4,094.00
7,634.93
3,637.64
14,173.60
30,761.17
Energy Prod.
(MTOE)
394.57
68.74
23.89
84.27
51.67
Net Import
(MTOE)
-184.8
54.22
18.04
-4.05
421.1
TPES
(MTOE)
209.01
119.15
40.45
75.91
461.47
TPES/Pop
(TOE/capita)
0.86
1.71
0.43
2.63
3.61
TPES/GDP
(TOE/000 USD;2005)
0.52
0.57
0.3
0.41
0.1
Elec. Cons
(TWh)
165.71
154.19
61.5
122.12
1003.09
Elec. Cons/Pop
(kWh/cap)
0.21
0.22
0.12
0.19
0.12
CO2 Emission
(MT)
425.88
243.19
77.12
193.96
1186.04
Slide 9
Strategic Issues
1. Exclusive energy development
Access to electricity services is limited
• Electrification ratio: 80%
• Capacity/production: 44 GW/180
thousand GWh
Access to energy for cooking is limited
• City gas only covers ± 150.000 HH
• LPG supplies ± 44 million HH
Access to Modern Energy Service in ASEAN, 2011
source: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
Slide 10
…
2. Energy security and resilience
Incremental energy demand in Indonesia, 2011-2035
• Highly rely on fuel oil
Source: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
• Lack of alternative fuels (natural gas, biofuel)
for transportation
• Significant imports of crude oil and fuel oil
• Consumption 78,9 million KL (import:
41,2 million KL or 52%); Refinery
capacity:1.150 thousand BPD.
• Lack of national energy reserves
• Pricing policy is not sustainable
Fossil Fuel Net Trade by Country
• Subsidy (electricity and fuel oil) is not only Source: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
for the poor but also for the rich
• Impede development of new and
renewable energy and Overburden
government spending
• Export commodity vs value added
• Unbalanced energy mix
Slide 11
Challenges
Competitiveness Index*
‘Middle income country trap’
Year 2013
Ina
Mal
ay
Thai
Viet
Philip
.
Infras
82
25
61
110
98
Road
78
23
42
102
87
Railway
44
18
72
58
89
Port
89
24
56
98
116
Air
Transport
68
20
34
92
113
Electricity
89
37
58
95
93
Cellular
62
27
49
21
81
Fixed-line
82
79
96
88
109
Demografic bonus
Geografi – archipelagic (resources and demand mismatch)
Environment – carrying capacity
Domestic investment capacity
Technology capability
*World Economic Forum
Slide 12
International Benchmark
Electrification Ratio (%), 2012
100
80
60
40
20
0
99.3
94
73.7
100
97
89.7
65
97.3 85
Low Electrification Ratio – Unable to
support the country’s growth
32
Tariff Comparison
0.15
Electrification Ratio (%)
Urban (%)
Rural (%)
0.1
0.12
0.11
0.096
0.092
0.0620.07
0.11
0.1
0.090.081
0.05
0
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Residential Tariff (US$/kWh)
Industrial Tariff (US$/kWh)
Energy Efficiency (KOE/$2005 PPP)
Smaller means more efficient
Indonesia
0.3
0.2
Japan
0.1
China
0
Thailand
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
Higher energy efficiency which shows
lack of energy conservation and
unbalanced energy mix (dominated by
fossil fuel).
Malaysia
Slide 13
objectives and policies
Slide 14
Objectives 2015-2019
1.
Achieving sufficient economic growth
2. Lower CO2 emission, compared to BAU
Inclusive basic energy modern service
1.
2.
Electricity access : ER nearly 100%
1. PP capacity ~ on/off-grids
2. Utilizing new and renewable
energy
Energy access for HH
1. Citi Gas Development
2. LPG service expansion
3. Usage of local energy (biogas)
Enhanced energy security and resilience
1.
2.
3.
* Modern energy access is defined as a household having relaible and affordable
4.
access to clean cooking facilities and electricity (incl. adequate level of consumption)
Enhancing final energy supply
1. Increasing Oil refinery capacity
2. Developing Nat. gas transmission lines
3. Setting up national energy reserves
Alternative fuel for transportation:
1. Providing nat. gas fuel pumps
2. Developing biofuel
Increasing energy efficiency
1. Audit energy and energy conservation
Formulated pricing policy
Slide 15
Main Policies
•
•
•
•
•
Energy diversification
Prioritizing local new and renewable energy
Enhancing oil and gas infrastructure
Promoting energy conservation
Optimizing pricing policy
Slide 16
investments requirements and funding
Slide 17
Investment Requirement 2015-2019
* Numbers not final
Sector
Estimated
(in Trillion IDR)
Roads
851
Rail
222
Urban Transport
115
Implementation needs: (1)
Sea Transport
424
extra commitment; (2) strong
Ferry
80
leadership; and (3) a holistic
Air Transport
165
bureaucratic reform
Electricity
1,080
Energy
420
Water Resources
845
Clean Water and Waste
666
Housing
384
ICT
200
Total
5.452
Slide 18
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
Source of Fund
Government
Spending
Estimated
requirements
IDR. 5,452 T
Financing Gap
± IDR 1,178T
~ 22%
± IDR 350T
SoE ~ 6%
± IDR 1,090T
PPP ~ 20%
± IDR 93T
Off Balance
Sheet ~ 2%
IDR 2,741T
Gap ~ 50%
Alternative
Financing
1. The figure shows CAPEX only and rehabilitation, not include O&M
2. Not final
Slide 19
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
…
Central
Government
Government
Funding
Regional
Government
SOE Funding
PPP Funding
Off-BS Funding
Strategic Funding
Description
APBN
Annual central budget allocated for infrastructure.
ODA Loan
Foreign currency based loan from donor.
Country Bond
Bond issuance based on country credit rating.
Asset Liquidation
Fund generated from asset sales, securitization, IPO of BUMN.
APBD
Annual regional budget allocated for infrastructure.
Municipal Bond
Bond issuance based on municipal credit rating.
Regional Direct Loan
Direct lending to regional government.
Cash pool+ operating CF
Funded by SOE’s liquid asset or operating cashflow
Company Bond
Bond issuance based on SOE credit rating.
SOE Direct Loan
Donor’s sub-sovereign loan. Commercial bank loan.
Private Fund with Gov’t
support
Investor’s equity with project finance + VGF and guarantee
Availability Payment
Investor’s equity with project finance, based on multi-year
annuity payment contract from central/regional government
SOE Direct Loan with
sovereign guarantee
Donor or commercial bank loan based on sovereign guarantee
Vertical, Horizontal Split
Hybrid of above methods by splitting assets
Cross-sector package
Hybrid of above methods by packaging linked projects
Others
Infrastructure fund/bond, Project bond and other financial pack
Social-related
Infrastructure
Suitability of Funding to Infrastructure
Funding Method
Economic
Infrastructure
Slide 20
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
*)Regional direct loan still not a valid law and/or approach yet.
Strategic Projects*
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fast Track Programs (Phase 1&2), IPP and PPP
Developing geothermal power plants
City gas projects: 80 thousand customers
Oil refinery 1 units (300 thousand BPD)
Developing national energy reserves
Floating storage refueling unit: 2 units, 250 BCF
Gas transmission lines: 680 km, 200 BCF
Natural gas pumps: 55 units
Pilot project for nuclear power plant: 2 units
* proposed
Slide 21
THANKS !
Direktorat Energi, Telekomunikasi, dan Informatika
Lantai 4, Gedung Utama, BAPPENAS
Jl. Taman Suropati No.2, Menteng, Jakarta 10310
Tel/Fax: (021) 391 2422
[email protected]
“when you talk, you’re repeating what you already know, but if you listen, you
may learn something new”
Slide 22