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OKLAHOMA
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Volume 8, Issue 7
JULY 2012
Small business owners are in a class of their
own – they have unique needs, challenges
and opportunities. Making the most of every
possible resource is critical to both day-to-day
and long-term success. Often overlooked is
a benefit owners can gain from their banker:
guidance and expertise in financial management
and growth.
Remember, banking isn't just about lending
money and executing transactions. Bankers
serve as strategic advisors to entrepreneurs
in their quest for success. The ability to listen
objectively and share the collective wisdom of
many small-business experiences is the mark
of a banker who truly engages with his or her
customers as a trusted advisor. Consider this
short list of these ideas from small business
bankers and owners for growing an enterprise:
1) Have a real business plan 2) Build a cash
reserve 3) Get involved with other entrepreneurs
4) Create a tax plan 5) Make a succession plan
6) Pay attention to cash flow.
Total
Y-Y
Change
Apr-11
Apr-12
995
872
-12.3%
May-11
May-12
972
1,488
+53.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
Oklahoma Employment Highlights
Number of Employees—NSA
May11
Total private
Government
Education & health srvs
Leisure & hospitality
68,200
128,700
86,800
41,900
May-12
Y-Y Chg.
66,300 -2.8%
136,100 +5.7%
95,300
40,800
+9.8%
-2.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics NSA = not seasonally adjusted
Oklahoma Employment
National Unemployment Average 8.2%–June 2012–NSA
Employment
Unemployment
Change*
Rate
Apr-11
Apr-12 (r)
+15,371
+14,349
5.4%
4.4%
May-11
May-12
-3,477
-330
5.9%
4.8%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Change from prior month
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
(r) = revised data
Carlon Index
In the month of May, each job in Oklahoma
generated an average of $2,478 in retail
sales expenditures. This represents a 6%
increase from May 2011.
Source: The Carlon Group
U.S. Median: $182,600 in May
$160,000
Oklahoma* Consumer
Price Index
1982–84 = 100 (U.S. Average 228.5) NSA
230.0
$120,000
$88,000
$95,500
$89,000
$94,000
217.5
$80,000
205.0
$40,000
192.5
$0
Mar-11
Mar-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
180.0
207.8
2009
211.3
2010
2011
2012-YTD
Oklahoma Retail Sales
Oklahoma Employment
In Millions (000,000s) NSA
In Thousands (000s) NSA
$5,000
$3,750
223.3
218.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*South Urban Region
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
Source: Zillow
* Most recent data available
$3,880
$4,228
$3,779
$4,074
2,000
1,000
$1,250
500
May-11
May-12
Jun-11
Source: Oklahoma Tax Commission
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
1,666
1,707
1,663
1,706
Apr-11
Apr-12
May-11
May-12
1,500
$2,500
$0
Oklahoma Home Permits
Authorized Units Privately Owned—NSA
Oklahoma Economic Benchmarks
Oklahoma Median Existing
Home Price*
Jun-12
0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
*revised data
U.S. Employment By The Numbers
Nonfarm payroll employment: +80,000 Civilian labor force participation rate: 63.8% N/C
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2012
Inside The Economy
The One and Only Solution
It’s July, and we have a minimum of three and a half months left of boring, half-truth, mud-slinging
political advertisements to impinge on our sensibilities. The irony is that in the end, from the
standpoint of the economy, it really doesn’t matter which candidate gets elected. The state of our
political system is such that the only thing that matters is which party gets elected to run both the
White House and the Congress. Yes, there are definitive contrasts between the approaches and
policies of the parties. The result, however, is that after Inauguration Day in January, with one party
in charge, at least there will be a high degree of certainty as to where the federal government will
be heading over the next two years. My reasoning, I hope, is a blinding flash of the obvious. The
thing that is killing our economic recovery is uncertainty. Europe is bad enough (and I still think
the eurozone is going to fail despite so-called rescue packages being devised – or revised -- as I
write). Despite small, and significant, upswings in economic data, – such as in the housing market,
– other, more recent data, suggest a re-slowing of domestic growth. The latest unemployment
figures show that new job creation is insufficient to keep up with growth in the labor force. Revised
GDP growth in Q1 2012 was 1.9 percent. The Consumer Confidence Index is in a four-month
decline. In sum, both the good and bad news indicate a domestic economy that is simply treading
water. The problem isn’t that complicated. Private business creates jobs. If private business is beset
by a muddy economic future, it will do nothing. “Doing nothing” creates neither jobs nor growth.
Reduce uncertainty, and private business can make reasoned decisions. It still may not create
jobs or growth, but at least we’ll understand the shape of the playing field and which game we’re
playing. One major area where uncertainty can be reduced is how the federal government will
influence the private sector. If the presidency and the Congress are again controlled by different
parties, there will be few kum-ba-ya moments to provide a stable economic climate for the next
two – or four – years. Author: Ken Maxey
ECONOMY TRACKER
page 2
Local Trends
Quick Fact
Oklahoma Employment
Oklahoma Employment
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012-YTD
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012-YTD
Leisure and Hospitality Jobs
Oklahoma Income
Construction Workers
135,600
137,800
141,000
140,000
139,000
142,200
145,300
Source: ACCRA 1st Qtr. 2012
21,600
21,800
22,900
20,700
19,800
68,300
66,300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.5%
Per Capita Personal Income
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$34,860
$38,529
$39,524
$40,981
$38,529
$35,389
$37,277
The increase in hourly wages
from May 2011 to May 2012
in the state of Oklahoma.
The current average hourly
wage for the private
sector is $20.69.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Oklahoma Employment Growth Rates
Change from Prior Year
Total nonfarm
Manufacturing (8%)
Other (nonmanufacturing) goods-producing (8%)
Private service-producing (62%)
Government (22%)
Unemployment rate (percent of labor force)
Q1-12
2.7%
7.2%
6.1%
2.2%
1.3%
5.8%
Q4-11
Q1-11
1.7%
5.0%
6.6%
1.0%
0.7%
6.3%
1.2%
4.2%
8.7%
1.0%
-1.7%
6.1%
2011
2010
1.3%
4.6%
7.7%
1.0%
-1.2%
6.2%
-0.8%
4.6%
-1.4%
-0.4%
0.1%
6.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: FDIC
National Trends
U.S. Job Openings, SAAR
CEO Survey—First Quarter 2012
Increase
No Change
Decrease
How do you expect your company’s sales to
change in the next six months?
81%
16%
3%
How do you expect your company’s U.S. capital
spending to change in the next six months?
48%
41%
11%
How do you expect your company’s U.S.
employment to change in the next six months?
42%
43%
16%
Survey Date
Job Openings (000s)
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
3,642
3,447
3,498
3,477
3,498
3,376
2,921
3,315
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Business Roundtable Q2 2012. Survey is a forecast of economic conditions in the next six months. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding.
Personal Income
Employment Cost Index, NSA
Index Number
12-Month Change
Q2-2011
Q3-2011
114.8
115.2
2.2%
2.8%
Q4-2011
Q1-2012
115.5
116.5
2.0%
2.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2005 = 100.0
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
Consumer Price Index Medical, NSA
May-11
May-12
Y-Y Change
Medical care
399.3
Medical care services 422.4
413.6
438.7
+3.6%
+3.9%
Hospital services*
U.S. all items
240.3
225.9
252.4
229.8
+5.1%
+1.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1982–84 = 100.0
NSA = not seasonally adjusted
*1996 = 100.0
Domestic Automotive Units (000s)
U.S.
Production
Unit
Sales
Apr-11
Apr-12
228.1
365.7
379.2
435.5
630.4
860.7
May-11
May-12
244.0
365.2
323.6
408.4
581.1
844.1
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Inventory
Level
In Billions of Dollars, SAAR
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12 (r)
Mar-12 (r)
Apr-12 (r)
May-12
Personal income
13,201 13,169 13,226 13,280 13,309 13,334
Disposable
personal income
11,763 11,729 11,778 11,826 11,845 11,864
Personal consumption
expenditures
10,886 11,933 11,039 11,048 11,064 11,059
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic
Product
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12 (r)
0.4%
1.3%
1.8%
3.0%
1.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent change from prior qtr.
(r) = revised
SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate
Consumer
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12 (r)
Jun-12 (p)
71.6
69.5
68.7
64.4
62.0
Source: The Conference Board
1985 = 100
(p) = preliminary
(r) = revised
(r) = revised
Total U.S. Retail Sales
In Millions (000,000s) NSA
$450,000
$400,000
$423,656*
$396,066
$392,888
$406,906
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
May-11
May-12
Jun-11
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
NSA = not seasonally adjusted *revised data
Most recent data available
Sources of information are believed to be reliable, but information is in no way guaranteed. Economy Tracker is produced in partnership with The Carlon Group.
Copyright 2012. All Rights Reserved. The Carlon Group • 700 17th Street, Suite 2400, Denver, CO 80202 • 303.223.6515 • www.thecarlongroup.com
Jun-12