Download zeean – a global perspective on supply chain disruption

The Frieler
connection
zeean – a global perspective on
supply chain disruption
Katja Frieler
Nicole Glanemann
Leonie Wenz
Sven Willner
Anders Levermann
Christian Otto
[email protected]
@ALevermann
Adaptation is a Global Problem
1. Impacts happen locally, but are caused globally.
 Any fair adaptation scheme must be global.
2. Some impacts are global (sea-level rise)
 Adapation example: snow canons on Antarctica
3. World is globally connected.
 zeean – economic damage propagation model
#1
Anders Levermann
1
A global impact: sea-level rise
Long-term sea-level commitment
Physical models: 2.3 m per degree of warming
Levermann, et al. PNAS, 2013.
Paleo data: At 2C of warming: > 5m sea-level rise
#2
Dutton et al. Nature, 2015.
Anders Levermann
A global impact: sea-level rise & Cultural heritage
#3
Marzeion & Levermann, ERL, 2014.
2
A global impact: sea-level rise & coastal cities
Strauss, Skulp, Levermann,
PNAS (2015).
www.sealevel.climatecentral.org
unmitigated warming
Strong carbon cuts
#4
A global impact: sea-level rise & tipping in Antarctica?
Eventually ice-free planet
East Antarctica
Winkelmann, Levermann, Ridgwell, Caldeira,
Science Advances, 2015.
West Antarctica
Mengel & Levermann,
Nature Climate Change, 2014.
#5
Feldmann & Levermann,
PNAS, 2015.
3
Adaptation to sea-level: Storing water on Antarctica
Snow canons on Antarctica
#6
…wind-powered 
Frieler, Mengel, Levermann, Earth System Dynamics, 2016.
Adaptation to sea-level: Storing water on Antarctica
Good news
• It works: Sea-level rise can be delayed by 1000 years if water is stored
800 km inland of Antarctica.
• It‘s global: It protects all coasts globally, even those w\o economic value.
• The wave is linear, i.e. return time doesn`t depend on water amount.
• Lots of energy: Antarctica is the windiest place on the planet.
• Small damage: There is almost no ecosystem in Antarctica‘s interior.
Bad news
• Lots of energy: 10% of global energy production required to pump
enough water up to 4000-meter-high Antarctic ice sheet.
• Damage: There is an ecosystem at the coast.
Conclusion
• Let‘s perhaps not do it?!
… or should we?
@SeaLevelDelay
#7
Frieler, Mengel, Levermann, Earth System Dynamics, 2016.
4
Extreme events: Summer heat in Europe
Courtesy: Dim Coumou
#8
Extrem events: a changing jetstream?
#9
Source: NASA
Courtesy: Dim Coumou
5
Eurasian, Summer 2010
Pakistan Flood
Courtesy: Dim Coumou
#10
zeean – the economic flow database
• Global economic network for static analysis and as basis for
damage propagation.
www.zeean.net
• Refinement to 400 sub-national sectors still running.
#11
@zeeanIT
Wenz et al.; Economic
Systems Research (2015).
Sven Willner, Robert Bierkandt, Leonie Wenz, Anders Levermann
6
acclimate – the damage propagation model
• Basic damage propagation along supply chains:
Bierkandt et al., ES&D (2014) & Wenz et al., ES&D (2014).
Agent-based model:
each production site is an agent
with universal decision rational
Decision rational:
• Each production site manages
purchase & sale to get back to
initial state which is assumed
to be optimal.
acclimate 1.0
• Decisions based on profit optimization:
Decision rational:
• Each production site manages
purchase & sale to maximize its
profit.
• No foresight & no oversight, i.e.
minimal info on competitors
(local in time and space)
Otto, Willner et al., Economic Modeling, submitted.
Maximum
profit
acclimate 2.0
#12
acclimate 2.0 – market adaptation
+0.1
Daily production
change
Value of production
change [bn US$]
+0.05
-0.5
Daily loss [bn US$]
-0.25
0.5
Production network adapts
to reduce the loss
Direct loss due
to flooding
Total loss due
to flooding
0
0
#13
Price dynamics is central in
this adaptation.
1000
days
0
1000
days
Otto, Willner et al., Economic Modeling, submitted.
7
acclimate 2.0 – long-term repercussions
20-day failure of machinery in Japan: long-term global repercussions
#14
Otto, Willner et al., Economic Modeling, submitted.
acclimate 2.0 – global effects
20-day failure of machinery in Japan: cumulative consumption change
#15
Otto, Willner et al., Economic Modeling, submitted.
8
acclimate – future plans
• Adapting the network structure (Sven Willner)
new supplier
repeated failure
Decision rational:
• Maximum profit
• Limited controlled time
horizon, i.e. some foresight
• Some information about competitors, i.e. some oversight
• Include capital stocks and investment (Nicole Glanemann)
$
#16
Decision rational:
• Maximum profit
• Limited but finite time horizon
• Some information about
competitors (spatial horizon)
• Long-term investment strategy
Observed reduction in productivity under heat stress
Depending on the sector Solomon Hsiang finds ~2% reduction of
productivity for each degree of warming above 27C.
#17
Hsiang, PNAS, 2010.
9
Production failure propagation: heat stress
Production failure increases with global mean temperature
and the economic structure.
#18
Wenz & Levermann, Science Advances, under review.
Sensitivity of the production to warming
Loss sensitivity depends on the network structure.
1991 – 2000: Stable at 0.2 tr USD / C
2001 – 2010: increase by 400-500%.
#19
Wenz & Levermann, Science Advances, under review.
10
Supply Propagation Connectivity
The sensitivity of the network is directly proportional to the
Supply Propagation Connectivity.
For economic network Zir→js
Glanemann, Willner, Bierkandt,
Wenz, Levermann, J Economic
Geography, 2016, submitted.
www.zeean.net
@zeeanIT
#20
Wenz & Levermann, Science Advances, under review.
The Frieler
connection
Thank you!
zeean – a global perspective on
supply chain disruption
Katja Frieler
Nicole Glanemann
Leonie Wenz
Sven Willner
Anders Levermann
Christian Otto
[email protected]
@ALevermann
11