Download How Arizona Became Ground Zero in the Nation*s War on Immigrants

Reacción en Cadena:
Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra
Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos
Douglas S. Massey
Woodrow Wilson School
Princeton University
Origines de la Guerra Anti-inmigrante
Epocas Importantes
1.
2.
3.
4.
La Paz Bracera 1954-1964
El Ascenso de la Ameneza Latina 1965-1995
Tiempos de Guerra 1996-2006
Punto Muerto 2007-2011
Rise of Latino Threat Narrative
Distribution of Alarmist Covers by Period
50
45
45
40
37
Percentage
35
30
25
20
18
15
10
5
0
1970s
1980s
Decade
1990s
Correspondence Between Apprehensions and Threatening Metaphors
Apprehensions
Metaphors
1
Ratio of Value Relative to 1986
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995
Year
Predicting Conservatism
β
SE
Demographic Background
Age
Age-squared
Female
White
U.S. Born
Currently married
No. of minors in household
General Human Capital
Education
Specific Human Capital
Income
Skilled occupation
Professional occupation
Service occupation
Farm occupation
U.S. Region
West
Northeast
Midwest
South
Size of City
Rural
Large urban city
Medium urban city
Small urban city
U.S. Economic Context
Expected earnings
U.S. Policy Context
Mexican Apprehensions
Total number of observations
*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001
0.0113
0.0000
-0.1818
0.3532
0.0139
0.2479
0.0552
***
***
0.0035
0.0000
0.0215
0.0287
0.0289
0.0214
0.0094
0.0329 ***
0.0037
0.0021 ***
--0.0422
0.0269
0.0365
0.0003
**
***
***
0.0273
0.0250
0.0676
--0.2168 ***
-0.0218
0.1734 ***
0.0323
0.0295
0.0279
--0.2395 ***
-0.1140 ***
-0.0078
0.0412
0.0309
0.0240
-0.0027 ***
0.0004
0.1680 ***
0.0315
51,981
Support Exclusionist Policy
Both: 1996 & 2004
β
Demographic Background
0.0351
Age
-0.0002
Age-squared
-0.1113
Female
0.5176
White
0.2474
Currently married
-0.0150
No. of minors in household
General Human Capital
-0.0793
Education
Specific Human Capital
-0.0016
Income (x1000)
Skilled occupation
-0.1017
Professional occupation
0.0235
Service occupation
-0.0526
Farm occupation
U.S. Region
West
0.1012
Northeast
0.1187
Midwest
0.2608
South
Size of City
Rural
-0.3992
Large urban city
-0.1258
Medium urban city
-0.1302
Small urban city
U.S. Policy Context
Identified Self as not conservative
Identified S+elf as slightly conservative 0.3959
Identified Self as extremely conservative0.5572
SE
**
*
**
**
***
0.0183
0.0013
-0.0885
0.0852
0.3130
--
**
-**
--***
**
Anti-immigrant sentiment
Support fo exclusionist policies index
Total number of observations
*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001
0.0138
0.0001
0.0918
0.1597
0.1094
0.0403
5,194
0.1512
0.0982
0.1062
0.1667
0.0784
0.1056
0.1018
0.1520
RESTRICTIVE LEGISLATION
1965 Hart-Cellar Act
Imposed first-ever annual cap of 120,000 visas for immigrants from western hemisphere
1976 Amendments to Immigration and Nationality Act
Put western hemisphere under preference system and country quotas
1978 Amendments to Immigration and Nationality Act
Combined separate hemispheric caps into single worldwide ceiling of 290,000
1980 Refugee Act
Abolished refugee preference and reduced worldwide ceiling to 270,000
1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act
Criminalized undocumented hiring and authorized expansion of Border Patrol
1990 Amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act
Sought to cap visas going to spouse and children of resident aliens
1996 Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
Authorized expedited removal of aliens and deportation of aggravated felons
1996 Illegal Immigrant Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act
Increased resources for border enforcement, narrowed criteria for asylum, and increased
income threshold required to sponsor immigrants
1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act
Declared documented and undocumented migrants ineligible for certain entitlements
1997 Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act
Allowed registered asylum seekers from Central America (mostly Nicaraguans) in the US
for at least 5 years since December 1, 1995 to obtain legal status; but prohibited
legalization and order deportation for those who lacked a valid visa or who previously
violated US immigration laws (mostly Hondurans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans)
2001 USA Patriot Act
Created Department of Homeland Security, increased funding for surveillance and
deportation of foreigners; authorized deportation of aliens without due process
2004 National Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Protection Act
Funded new equipment, aircraft, border patrol agents, immigration investigators, and
detention centers for border enforcement
2005 Real ID Act
Dramatically increased the data requirements, documentation, and verification procedures
for state issuance of drivers licences
2006 Secure Fence Act
Authorized construction of additional fencing, vehicle barriers, checkpoints, lighting and
funding for new cameras, satellites, and unmanned drones for border enforcement
2010 Border Security Act
Funded hiring 3,000 more Border Patrol agents and increased BP budget by $244 million
Tiempos de Guerra
1992 Primero Ataque en NY
1995 Bombardeo en Oklahoma
1996 Anti-Terrorism and Effective
Death Penalty Act
1998 Bombardeo de USS Cole en Yemen
2000 Bombardeo de las Embajadas en Africa
2001 9-11 Ataques en NY y Washington
2001 USA PATRIOT Act
RESTRICTIVE OPERATIONS
1993
1994
1998
1999
2003
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2010
Operation Blockade (El Paso)
Operation Gatekeeper (San Diego)
Operation Rio Grande (Brownsville)
Operation Safeguard (Tucson)
Operation Endgame (Internal)
Operation Frontline (Internal)
Arizona Border Control Initiative (Arizona)
Operation Stonegarden (Entire Border)
Secure Borders Initiative (Entire Border)
Operation Streamline (Entire Border)
Operation Return to Sender (Internal)
Operation Jump Start (Entire Border)
Secure Communities Program (Internal)
Operation Rapid REPAT (Internal)
Operation Scheduled Departure (Internal)
Operation Copper Cactus (Arizona)
Punto Muerto
• Tasa de Salida Indocumentada a EEUU: 0
• Tasa de Retorno a México: 0
• Población Permanente de Indocumentados
• 11 milliones en total
• 6.5 millones de Mexicanos
• Más represión del estado norteamericano
• Mas exclusión del pueblo estadonidense
Average Daily Number of Immigrants in Detention
35000
31,345
30000
Number
25000
20,032
20000
15000
10000
6259
5000
0
1992
2000
Year
2008
Immigration-Related Legislation in State Legislatures
1600
1404
1400
1405
1305
1200
Bills Considered
Number
1000
800
600
570
Bills Enacted
400
200
300
36
170
206
2007
2008
259
84
0
2005
2006
Year
2009
Anti-Hispanic Hate Crimes Since 9/11
650
600
595
Number
576
550
522
500
480
475
450
426
400
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
Consequences of the War: Public Opinion
2006 Pew Survey of American Adults
70
60
60
54
50
48
40
30
20
10
0
Immigrants Threaten American
Values
Americans Need to Be Protected
Against Foreign Influence
Approve of Minutemen
Probability of Undocumented Migration to United States
First Trip
Later Trip
0.1200
Bracero Program Cancelled
& Numerical Quotas Imposed
Operation
Wetback
Economic
Crisis in US
Probability of Departure
0.1000
IRCA
0.0800
Operation
Blockade
PATRIOT
Act
0.0600
0.0400
0.0200
0.0000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Model to Predict Probability of
Undocumented Migration
Demographic Background
Age
Age-squared
Married
No. of minors in household
General Human Capital
Labor force experience
Education
Specific Human Capital
Months of prior U.S. experience
Number of prios U.S. trips
Unskilled urban job
Skilled urban job
General Social Capital
Parent a U.S. Migrant
No of U.S. migrant siblings
Prop U.S. Migrants in Community
Specific Social Capital
Spouse a U.S. migrant
No. of U.S. migrant children
No. of U.S. born children
Physical Capital
Land
Home
Business
U.S. Social Context
Frequency of Threatening Media References
Expected earnings
Consumer confidence index
U.S. Policy Context
Availability of Legal Visas
Border enforcement factor
Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of
Undocumented Migration
First Undocumented Trip to the
U.S.
β
SE
Additional Undocumented Trips to
the U.S.
β
SE
U.S. Socioeconomic Context
Frequency of Threatening Media References
-0.0026 **
0.0013
0.0024
0.0015
Expected earnings
0.0004 ***
0.0004
-0.0045 ***
0.0005
Consumer confidence index
0.0048 ***
0.0010
0.0055 ***
0.0012
-4.5095 ***
0.3315
-4.3981 ***
0.4328
0.1682 ***
0.0412
0.0959 **
0.0392
-7.1785 ***
0.2598
1.8144 ***
0.3735
U.S. Policy Context
Availability of Legal Visas
Border Enforcement Factor
Intercept
Likelihood Ratio
4740.5351 ***
3889.1290 ***
Wald
3291.3784 ***
2745.6100 ***
Total number of person-years
*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01
684,128
82,735
Cost of Border Crossing in 2010 US Dollars
$3,000.00
Border
Blockades
$2,500.00
Cost in US Dollars
1965 Act
IRCA
$2,000.00
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
$500.00
$0.00
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure,
and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0.07
Rate per 1,000 Entries
0.06
Operation Blockade
Launched In El Paso
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Probability of Returning to Mexico within 12 Months
First Trip
Later Trip
0.9
0.8
0.7
Probability
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Bracero Program Ends
WH Quotas Imposed
IRCA Passes
1996 Acts
0.2
PATRIOT Act
0.1
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of
Return Migration
First Return from U.S. Trip within 12
months
β
SE
Additional Returns from U.S.
Trip within 12 months
β
SE
U.S. Social Context
Frequency of Threatening Media References
0.0022
0.0021
0.0038 **
0.0018
Expected earnings
0.0004 **
0.0007
-0.0036 ***
0.0006
-0.0035 **
0.0017
-0.0004
0.0014
Availability of Legal Visas
-2.3915 ***
0.5821
-3.2181 ***
0.5258
Border enforcement factor
-0.2093 ***
0.0727
0.3312 ***
0.0492
-8.0701 ***
0.4327
0.9421 **
0.4549
Consumer confidence index
U.S. Policy Context
Intercept
Likelihood Ratio
Wald
Total number of person-years
*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01
8390.8329 ***
3252.6061 ***
10050.2181 ***
2670.5435 ***
679,488
66,312
Back to the Future:
Flows Then and Now
• 1956-1957
–
–
–
–
57,000 Documented Migrants per Year
441,000 Guestworkers per Year
498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year
Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling
• 2008-2009
–
–
–
–
177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year
331,000 Guestworkers per Year
508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year
Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling
Major Difference Between Then and Now:
Resident Undocumented Population
– 1956-1957
• Effectively Zero
– 2007-2008
• Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million
• 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican
• 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented
– Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants
• 3+ Million Entered as children
• 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status
Reacción en Cadena:
Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra
Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos
Douglas S. Massey
Woodrow Wilson School
Princeton University