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The Role of Governance Stability in Migration Pamela (Pam) E Kelrick & Tom G. Johnson Liaison officer (Rural Policy Learning Commons) Truman School of Public Affairs University of Missouri-Columbia © University of Missouri-Columbia Governance stability In this study, ‘governance stability’ refers to the quality of political and social functionality in a society. 2 Governance & international migration? Governance institutions are increasingly confronted by emergent influences on international migration Globalization (Grugel and Piper, 2007) Security (Hanson, 2010; Ibrahim, 2005; Taureck, 2006; Weiner 1992) Human rights (Crush 2000; IOM 2009) Climate Change (IOM 2003 #3; UNFPA/IIED 2009) Preferential trade agreements (Orefice, 2012) Yet…the focus has been to explain international migration dynamics in many countries using only economic factors. (Betts 2008) 3 Why governance? Inclusive image of a nation and emerging influences Sovereignty Nations are the standard political unit to define border security, establish and enforce migration policy National institutions and networks (e.g. unions, trade organizations, military) are stakeholders and influencers Quality barometer Government, strong political influencers, institutions, organizations National migration policy and regulation is responsive to political and social forces Exploiting the variation of governance may reveal the level of influence (if any) on international migration Accessible and actionable If governance influences migration, then policy implications are accessible and actionable. Not all governance is created equal…great variation exists 4 Governance Stability versus Migration for Countries Worldwide Emigration per capita immigration per capita 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 16.8 -0.005 19.3 22 27 36.2 42.1 49.3 56.2 61.5 71.4 81 88.2 50 -0.01 -0.015 N= 64 * Using Fund for Peace Stability Index Governance Stability where 1=stable and 10=unstable N= 49 5 This Study Cross-section time series with random effects to determine the influence of governance stability on immigration and emigration in 30 countries. 6 MODELS & RESULTS Comparison of governance metrics that affect emigration and immigration 7 Data Sources Annual data (2006-2009) TERMS DEPENDENT Emigration per capita Immigration per capita INDEPENDENT Governance Stability Metrics CONTROL Total labor per capita SOURCES UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div. UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div. Fund for Peace – 6 variables World Bank 8 Governance Stability Metrics FFP Failed States Index Indicator Indicator Description Presence of group grievance History of aggrieved communal groups (past institutionalized political exclusion and present); Legitimacy of the state Level of corrupting activity by elite groups, resistance to transparency Public services Basic services to citizens, including public safety (policing), health, education, sanitation, and transportation Human rights and rule of law Authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule at the expense of democratic institutions and constitutional practices Security apparatus A stable security apparatus operates with a monopoly on the use of legitimate force Factionalized elites Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions such that the country leadership does not represent the entire citizenry *Fund for Peace Stability Index 6 of 12 indicators 9 Generic Model 2 Model sets for comparison: Emigration model (6 versions): Y1 = emigration per capita Immigration model (6 versions): Y2 = immigration per capita Yit = α + β1Xit + β2Xit + β3Xit + εit X1 = lag term (emigration OR immigration) X2 = governance metric (6 versions from previous slide) X3 = Total labor per capita ε = error term where i= event and t = year of event - All independent terms are lagged 1 year 10 Emigration Model Set 5 models with presence of group grievance, security apparatus, legitimacy of the government, public services, presence of factional elites • No governance stability metrics were statistically significant. • Emigration per capita was statistically significant in all of these models, with R-sq values = 0.82 MODEL: Human rights and rule of law Coefficient P-value Emigration per capita 0.901 0.000**** Total labor per capita 0.001 0.781 Human rights and rule of law -0.00015 0.036* R2 (N=90) 0.827 Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust 11 Immigration Model Set All Models Model a Model b Model c Model d lag immigration per cap 0.788**** 0.729**** 0.709**** 0.739**** 0.778**** 0.773**** total labor per capita group grievance 0.0171*** 0.013*** 0.012** 0.016** Model e Model f 0.015*** 0.017**** -0.0002 legitimacy of the state public services human rights /rule of law -0.0003** -0.0006** -0.0004* security apparatus -.00024** factionalized elites R-sq -0.0002* .789 .794 .799 .795 .791 .791 Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust 12 Summary results – comparison Emigration Immigration legitimacy of the state public services human rights /rule of law security apparatus factionalized elites group grievance legitimacy of the state public services human rights /rule of law security apparatus factionalized elites group grievance * Bold variables were statistically significant 13 Summary results – conclusions Governance stability is important in international migration, but in different ways for emigration and immigration Emigration: Immigration: lots can and must go wrong before anyone will leave many factors are relevant to encourage immigration these factors are all relatively equivalent in influence Follow up: What happens at the subnational scale? Does this dynamic hold for longer periods of time? If we categorized the countries based on ranked stability, would the results look similar? 14 Policy implications Managing international migration is not simply an issue of economic condition, regulation, job opportunities, or status. Emigration: governance stability is not particularly influential Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential Immigration: Governance stability (real or perceived) may be a factor in decision-making Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential 15 Limitations National scale may not be relevant Only four years of available data available (200609) Extrapolation of results to other countries is not advised. Governance is not the same as government Confuses migration policy (national level) with implementation (usually at regional/local level) Measurement error (perpetual nemesis of studying migration) 16 Thank you Pamela (Pam) Kelrick Doctoral Student Truman School of Public Affairs Graduate Research Assistant Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC) Liaison Officer Rural Policy Learning Commons [email protected] © University of Missouri-Columbia