Download Pamela-Kelrick - Rural Policy Research Institute

The Role of Governance Stability
in Migration
Pamela (Pam) E Kelrick & Tom G. Johnson
Liaison officer (Rural Policy Learning Commons)
Truman School of Public Affairs
University of Missouri-Columbia
© University of Missouri-Columbia
Governance stability
In this study, ‘governance stability’ refers to
the quality of political and social
functionality in a society.
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Governance & international migration?
Governance institutions are increasingly
confronted by emergent influences on
international migration
Globalization (Grugel and Piper, 2007)
 Security (Hanson, 2010; Ibrahim, 2005; Taureck, 2006; Weiner 1992)
 Human rights (Crush 2000; IOM 2009)
 Climate Change (IOM 2003 #3; UNFPA/IIED 2009)
 Preferential trade agreements (Orefice, 2012)

Yet…the focus has been to explain international
migration dynamics in many countries using
only economic factors. (Betts 2008)
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Why governance?

Inclusive image of a nation and emerging influences
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Sovereignty

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Nations are the standard political unit to define border security, establish
and enforce migration policy
National institutions and networks (e.g. unions, trade organizations,
military) are stakeholders and influencers
Quality barometer

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Government, strong political influencers, institutions, organizations
National migration policy and regulation is responsive to political and
social forces
Exploiting the variation of governance may reveal the level of influence
(if any) on international migration
Accessible and actionable

If governance influences migration, then policy implications are
accessible and actionable.
Not all governance is created equal…great variation exists
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Governance Stability versus Migration for Countries Worldwide
Emigration per capita
immigration per capita
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
16.8
-0.005
19.3
22
27
36.2
42.1
49.3
56.2
61.5
71.4
81
88.2
50
-0.01
-0.015
N= 64
* Using Fund for Peace Stability Index
Governance Stability
where 1=stable and 10=unstable
N= 49
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This Study
Cross-section time series with
random effects to determine the
influence of governance stability
on immigration and emigration in
30 countries.
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MODELS & RESULTS
Comparison of governance metrics that
affect emigration and immigration
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Data Sources
Annual data (2006-2009)
TERMS
DEPENDENT
Emigration per capita
Immigration per capita
INDEPENDENT
Governance Stability Metrics
CONTROL
Total labor per capita
SOURCES
UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div.
UN, Econ and Soc Affairs, Pop Div.
Fund for Peace – 6 variables
World Bank
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Governance Stability Metrics
FFP Failed States Index
Indicator
Indicator Description
Presence of group grievance
History of aggrieved communal groups (past
institutionalized political exclusion
and present);
Legitimacy of the state
Level of corrupting activity by elite groups, resistance to transparency
Public services
Basic services to citizens, including public safety (policing), health,
education, sanitation, and transportation
Human rights and rule of law
Authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule at the expense of democratic
institutions and constitutional practices
Security apparatus
A stable security apparatus operates with a monopoly on the use of
legitimate force
Factionalized elites
Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions such that the
country leadership does not represent the entire citizenry
*Fund for Peace Stability Index 6 of 12 indicators
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Generic Model
2 Model sets for comparison:
Emigration model (6 versions): Y1 = emigration per capita
Immigration model (6 versions): Y2 = immigration per capita
Yit = α + β1Xit + β2Xit + β3Xit + εit
X1 = lag term (emigration OR immigration)
X2 = governance metric (6 versions from previous slide)
X3 = Total labor per capita
ε = error term
where i= event and t = year of event
- All independent terms are lagged 1 year
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Emigration Model Set
5 models with presence of group grievance, security apparatus,
legitimacy of the government, public services, presence of
factional elites
• No governance stability metrics were statistically significant.
• Emigration per capita was statistically significant in all of these models, with
R-sq values = 0.82
MODEL: Human rights and rule of law
Coefficient
P-value
Emigration per capita
0.901
0.000****
Total labor per capita
0.001
0.781
Human rights and rule of law
-0.00015
0.036*
R2 (N=90)
0.827
Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust
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Immigration Model Set
All Models
Model a Model b Model c Model d
lag immigration per cap
0.788**** 0.729**** 0.709**** 0.739**** 0.778**** 0.773****
total labor per capita
group grievance
0.0171*** 0.013***
0.012**
0.016**
Model e Model f
0.015*** 0.017****
-0.0002
legitimacy of the state
public services
human rights /rule of law
-0.0003**
-0.0006**
-0.0004*
security apparatus
-.00024**
factionalized elites
R-sq
-0.0002*
.789
.794
.799
.795
.791
.791
Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust
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Summary results – comparison
Emigration
Immigration
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legitimacy of the state
public services
human rights /rule of law
security apparatus
factionalized elites
group grievance
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legitimacy of the state
public services
human rights /rule of law
security apparatus
factionalized elites
group grievance
* Bold variables were statistically significant
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Summary results – conclusions
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Governance stability is important in international
migration, but in different ways for emigration and
immigration
Emigration:
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Immigration:
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lots can and must go wrong before anyone will leave
many factors are relevant to encourage immigration
these factors are all relatively equivalent in influence
Follow up:
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What happens at the subnational scale?
Does this dynamic hold for longer periods of time?
If we categorized the countries based on ranked stability,
would the results look similar?
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Policy implications


Managing international migration is not simply an issue
of economic condition, regulation, job opportunities, or
status.
Emigration:

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governance stability is not particularly influential
Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential
Immigration:

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Governance stability (real or perceived) may be a factor in
decision-making
Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential
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Limitations
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National scale may not be relevant
Only four years of available data available (200609)
Extrapolation of results to other countries is not
advised.
Governance is not the same as government
Confuses migration policy (national level) with
implementation (usually at regional/local level)
Measurement error (perpetual nemesis of
studying migration)
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Thank you
Pamela (Pam) Kelrick
Doctoral Student
Truman School of Public Affairs
Graduate Research
Assistant
Community Policy Analysis Center
(CPAC)
Liaison Officer
Rural Policy Learning Commons
[email protected]
© University of Missouri-Columbia