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Relatively small and underdeveloped region ◦ Less than 20 million people ◦ GDP is 68.9 billion EUR (7% of EU10, 0.5% of EU27) ◦ GDP in PPP p.c. 7850 EUR (49% of EU10, 31% of EU27 average) Size, population and level of economic development vary among the countries of the region _________ Western Balkans covers: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo* 1 Population (million) GDP GDP in EUR at PPP, GDP in EUR at (EUR bn) per capita, EU 27=100 PPP, per capita Albania 2.8 9.2 27 6800 Bosnia and Herzeg. 3.8 13.3 27 6800 2.1 0.6 7.2 1.7 7.5 3.3 30.9 4.7 38 42 35 n/a 9500 10500 8700 4810 18.3 68.9 34 7850 98.9 502.9 972 12630 63 100 15900 25100 Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* Western Balkans EU-10 EU-27 Figure 1.1: Real GDP growth (in %) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Albania BiH 2001-2003 Macedonia 2004-2006 Montenegro 2007 2008 Serbia 2009 Kosovo* 2010 2011 Western Balkans EU-10 2012 proj1 Strong economic growth in the pre crisis period, followed by sharp decline in 2009 and slow recovery after 2009 Figure 1.2: Current account deficit, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) The economic crisis resulted in the reduction of imports and current account deficits Figure 1.3: External debt, 2007-2001 (% of GDP) 120 100 80 2007 2008 60 2009 2010 40 2011 20 0 Albania BiH Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* Western Balkans •External debt recorded permanent growth in the pre-crisis period. •In spite of the reduced current account deficits in 2009 and 2010, foreign debt recorded further growth. Figure 1.4: Fiscal balance, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) •In 2007, the region had budget surplus of 0.3%. •In 2009, the regional budget deficit averaged 4.9 due to extensive borrowing from the IMF and other IFIs •It remained below the average for CEEB (5.4%) Figure 1.5: General government debt, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) •The general government debt increased from 37% of GDP in 2009 to 44% at the end of 2011 •Debt levels remain high compared to pre-crisis levels of around 30% Figure 1.6: Inflows of FDI in Western Balkan countries, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) •FDI inflows strongly affected by the crisis. •In the pre-crisis period, FDI 5.688 mil. EUR in 2007 (9.3% of GDP). •in 2008 the region experienced a decrease in FDI inflows, mostly due to the impact of the global economic crisis. STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES GDP growth remained positive during the crisis High exposure to the Eurozone crisis Contracting current account deficit High and growing general government debt Relatively low external debt (the lowest in the region) Contracting fiscal deficit STRENGTHS Contracting fiscal deficit Contracting current account deficit WEAKNESSES Current account deficit High and growing general government debt Slow recovery of GDP High exposure to the Eurozone crisis High external debt World Bank survey “Doing Business” is a comprehensive analysis of regulations and obstacles to starting, operating, and closing a business, compares the ease of doing business among more than 180 countries around the world Albania BiH Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo Western Balkans EU-10 EASE OF DOING BUSINESS RANK 85 126 23 51 86 98 78 47 Starting a Business 62 162 5 58 42 126 76 77 Dealing with construction permits 185 163 65 176 179 144 152 85 Registering Property 121 93 50 117 41 76 83 41 Getting electricity 154 158 101 69 76 116 112 103 Getting credit 23 70 23 4 40 23 31 39 Protecting Investors 17 100 19 32 82 100 58 72 Paying taxes 160 128 24 81 149 44 98 90 Trading Across Borders 79 103 76 42 94 124 86 56 Enforcing Contracts 85 120 59 135 103 138 107 49 Closing business 66 83 30 44 103 87 69 56 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red Country rank 95 Country CPI score 3.1 69 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia 66 Montenegro 4.0 86 Serbia 3.3 112 Kosovo* 2.9 87 55 Western Balkans EU-10 3.4 4.7 91 3.2 3.9 Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index measures the perceived levels of public sector corruption in more than 170 countries. 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red Regulatory quality Rule of law Control of corruption Albania 0.23 -0.44 -0.43 Bosnia and Herzegovina -0.1 -0.36 -0.32 Macedonia 0.28 -0.30 -0.06 Montenegro -0.06 -0.02 -0.33 Serbia -0.2 -0.39 -0.21 Kosovo* -0.04 -0.64 -0.64 Western Balkans 0.02 -0.36 -0.33 EU-10 0.97 0.61 0.25 WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons in governance as well as monitoring progress over time 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Western Balkans EU-10 Global Competitiveness Index - overall rankings 1. Basic requirements 2. Efficiency enhancers 3. Innovation and sophistication factors 89 88 80 72 95 85 54 87 92 81 97 71 84 74 74 95 88 82 87 55 47 113 99 110 69 124 103 61 The 2012/13 rank is out of 144 countries. The lower the rank number, the better 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red STRENGTHS Macroeconomic stability Reduced business barriers in the area of protecting investors, starting a business, and closing a business Quality of regulations above the regional average WEAKNESSES Level of competitiveness Capability for innovation Business barriers in the area of construction permits and registering property Corruption Market size Rule of law STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES Reduced business barriers in the area of Level of competitiveness protecting investors and closing a business Quality of regulations Capability for innovation Macroeconomic stability Business barriers in the area of construction permits, enforcing contracts and paying taxes Corruption Market size Rule of law BiH Macedonia Montenegro Serbia √ (RS) √ √ √ Kosovo* Albania √ 1.1. Systemic approach to a better regulation agenda Regulatory reform strategy √ (BiH state & FBiH) Segments of the regulatory reform strategy as a part of other country strategic documents √ 1.2. Main motive for the regulatory reform? Need to boost competitiveness and growth √ √ √ √ √ √ International commitment (e.g. EU integration commitment) √ √ √ √ √ √ Government reform agenda √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ (BiH state & FBiH) √ √ √ √ √ (RS) √ 1.3. Leadership of the regulatory reform implementation Government Businesses Citizens, national opinion √ NGOs √ √ Country Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina - BiH State - BiH Federation - Republic of Srpska Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* Central regulatory oversight authority Regulatory reform task force No oversight authority No oversight authority Council for regulatory reform Central body for better regulation and capacity building within the Ministry of Information Society and Administration (MIOA)1 Council for Regulatory Reform and Improvement of Business Environment Office for RIA and Regulatory Reform Council on Economic Development Montenegro Serbia √ √ √ Kosovo* Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Table 3.3: Better regulation agenda - use of Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) in the government 1. Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Formally introduced Initiated √ √ (BiH state, FBiH and RS) √ None 2. Regulatory Impact Analysis √ Government-wide For specific sectors or policy areas RIA pilots √ √ (BiH state & RS) 1 √ √ Kosovo* Serbia Macedonia √ Montenegro BiH Albania √ 1. Consultation with stakeholders in the government 1.1. Is consultation mandatory during the period of drafting laws? For all laws For complex and systematic laws 1 √ √ √ √ 1.2. Is public consultation with parties affected by regulations a part of developing draft laws? Always In most of the cases In some cases 1.3. What forms of public consultation are routinely used: Broad circulation of proposals for comment (e.g. through Internet) Public meetings, roundtables, focus groups Advisors or experts 2. Forward planning of regulatory activities 2.1. Plan of legislative activities Fully implemented/publicly available plan Partially implemented/not publicly available plan 2.2. Is there monitoring of the implementation of the legislative activities plan √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 2005 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK Regulatory reform Task Force Inter-ministerial Coordination Body Technical working groups, in 7 policy areas 2005 REGULATORY REFORM Two-pronged Regulatory reform - Reducing the existing barriers to businesses (business registration; licensing) -RIA 2009 REGULATORY REFORM CONTINUATION Two-pronged Regulatory reform - Reducing the existing barriers to businesses (Inspections) -RIA 2010 RIA IMPLEMENTATION -RIA pilots -RIA trainings -RIA guidelines - RIA strategy: (December 2010) STRENGTHS Strategic approach to regulatory reform Regulatory reform strategy as a separate strategic document Established Institutional framework – Regulatory reform Task Force Successfully implemented Program of reduction of administrative barriers to businesses licensing system and business registration. Publicly available plan of legislative activities WEAKNESSES Slow implementation of regulatory strategy Regulatory reform office abolished Public consultation obligatory only for complex and systemic laws RIA implementation still in its initial phase Insufficient cooperation between the Government and the Parliament in the implementation of regulatory reform. STRENGTHS Mostly strategic approach to regulatory reform WEAKNESSES Insufficient cooperation between the Government and the Parliament in the implementation of regulatory reform. Established Institutional framework Insufficient interface between sub-national and national level of government in the regulatory reform process. Implemented Program of reduction of Uniqual progress in RIA introduction and administrative barriers to businesses implementation Publicly available plan of legislative activities Lack of capacities for RIA implementation STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES 2nd Copenhagen economic criteria Broad political consensus on the essentials of EU candidate status not yet granted economic policy High private sector share in GDP Underdeveloped non-banking sector High level of trade liberalization Legal system weaknesses, in the area of rule of law, property rights, and judicial independence High level of price liberalization Low share of R&D spending in GDP High level of trade integration with the EU Low level of state interference in the economy STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES nd 2 Copenhagen economic criteria Broad political consensus on the essentials of Moderate progress towards the EU economic policy Underdeveloped non-banking sector High level of trade liberalization Legal system weaknesses, in the area of rule of law, property rights, and judicial independence High level of price liberalization Low share of R&D spending in GDP High level of trade integration with the EU Unemployment rate Kosovo Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy related negotiating chapters of the EU acquis Albania 3rd Copenhagen Criteria – Acceptance of the Community acquis Chapter 1: Free movement of goods Chapter 5: Public procurement Chapter 6: Company law Chapter 8: Competition policy Chapter 9: Financial Services Chapter 11: Agriculture and rural development Chapter 15: Energy Chapter 16: Taxation Chapter 17: Economic and Monetary policy Chapter 18: Statistics Chapter 20: Enterprise and industrial policy Chapter 28: Consumer Protection Chapter 29: Customs Union Chapter 30: External Relations Yellow - the country has the capacity to comply with the requirements of the acquis in the medium term; Orange – additional efforts are needed to align with the EU acquis and to implement it effectively in the medium term Brown - considerable and sustained efforts are needed to align with the EU acquis and to implement it effectively in the medium term. Table 5.1: The structure of parliaments in Western Balkan countries Unicameral Albania Bicameral √ Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bosnia and Herzegovina – state level √ - Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina √ - Republika Srpska √ Macedonia √ Montenegro √ Serbia √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Kosovo* √ √ Serbia Montenegro Direct parliamentary oversight of the government activity Parliamentary questions and interpellations Government annual reports to the parliament Ministries’ quarterly reports to the related committees Budgetary scrutiny and financial control Parliamentary oversight over implementing public agencies Telecommunication regulatory body Agency submits reports to the parliamentary committees Parliament adopts the reports Parliament nominates executives Energy regulatory body Agency submits reports to the parliamentary committees Parliament adopts the reports Parliament nominates executives BiH √ √ Albania Macedonia Table 5.2: Parliamentary oversight of the government activity √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Table 5.3: Number of parliamentary committees in Western Balkan countries’ parliaments Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina: - Bosnia and Herzegovina – state level1 - Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina2 - Republika Srpska Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* Number of parliamentary committees 8 16 27 22 21 11 19+13 164 Table 5.4: Parliamentary Committees for Economy and Finance in Western Balkan Countries Country Parliamentary Committees for Economy and Finance Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy and Finance Committee 23 Bosnia and Herzegovina – state level Finances and Budget Committee Joint committee for economic reforms and development Committee for economic and financial policy Finances and Budget Committee Audit Committee Committee on Financing and Budget Committee on economy Committee on economy, finance and budget Committee on Finance, State Budget and Control of Public Spending Committee on the Economy, Regional Development, Trade, Tourism and Energy Committee for Budget and Finance The Committee on Oversight of Public Finances Committee on Economy, Trade, Industry, Energy, Transport and Telecommunication 9 Federation of BiH Republika Srpska Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* No. of committee members 11 11 9+21 9 14 12 12 17 17 11 9 11 Parliamentary Committees for Economy and Finance Economic policies State budget: consideration and execution State budget: oversight of implementation Public finances Financial and banking system Consideration of regulations in the field of budget and finance Consideration of regulations in the field of economy Albania: Economy and Finance Committee Macedonia: √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Committee on Financing and Budget Committee on economy Montenegro: Committee on economy, finance and budget √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Montenegro Serbia Kosovo* Research department x x (state level) Number of employees 3 5 Number of experts 3 1 Number of experts working for parliamentary department /committee(s) Department/ committee for Economy and Finance 3 (BiH state) Number of employees 4 10 (FBiH) x 17 4 6 2 x 10 7 x 6 4 4 4 13* 10 2 1 4* 8 11 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 6 5 7 3 1 1 6 3 Macedonia BiH Albania Table 5.8: Parliamentary research departments and experts in WBCs 3 (RS) Number of experts 4 3 (BiH state) 6 (FBiH) 1 (+2)3 (RS) Department / committee for legislation Number of employees 5 Number of experts 5 3 (BiH state) 5 (FBiH) 1 (RS) 3 (BiH state) 5 (FBH) 1 (+2) (RS) EU integrations department Number of employees 5 Number of experts 5 2 (BiH state) 2 (FBiH) 1 (RS) 2 (BiH state) 8 (FBiH) 1 (+2) (RS) 1. Budgetary independence of the parliament Budget of the parliament as a segment of √ √ the government budget Partial budgetary independence - Budget Council Full budgetary independence 2. Available financial resources for drafting laws Sufficient Limited √ √ √ Kosovo* Serbia Montenegro Macedonia BiH Albania Table 5.9: Budgetary independence of parliaments √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Kosovo* Serbia Montenegro Kosovo* Serbia Macedonia Montenegro Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina 1. Public hearing with stakeholders Albania Albania Table 5.10: Use of better regulation: regulatory quality tools related to transparency in the legislation process in Western Balkan parliaments 1. Public hearing with stakeholders 1.1. Is public hearing in the parliament mandatory? conducted during the consideration of laws in the parliament? 1.1. Is public hearing in the parliament mandatory? conducted during the consideration of laws in the parliament? Yes No Yes No √ √ √ √√ √ √ √ √√ √ √ √ √ √ √ 1.2. Is public hearing conducted during the consideration of laws in the parliament? 1.2. Is public hearing conducted during the consideration of laws in the parliament? For all laws For some laws 2. Forward planning of regulatory activities For all laws For some laws 2.1. Plan of legislative activities 2. Forward planning ofFully regulatory activities implemented/publicly available plan Partially implemented/not publicly available plan 2.1. Plan of legislative activities 2.2 . Harmonization of forward planning of Fully implemented/publicly available plan regulatory activities between government and parliament Partially implemented/not publicly available plan √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 3. Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) 2.2 . Harmonization of forward planning regulatory Formally introduced RIA asof a part of explanatory note of the draft law (in the Rules of Procedure of activities between government and parliament the Parliament) Initiated Impact Analysis (RIA) None 3. Regulatory Formally introduced RIA as a part of explanatory note of the draft law (in the Rules of Procedure of the Parliament) Initiated None √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Albania: Economy and Finance Committee 1. Role of the committee in the consideration, execution and oversight of the implementation of the state budget: 2. reports of the ministry of finance active role of the committee in the budget decision-making role monitoring of the implementation of the state budget state audit institution report Strengthening the role of the committee in economic policy creation Documents related to the effect of the crisis and external shocks National development plans and strategies 3. Reports of the regulatory bodies/agencies that report to this committee - State audit institution - Competition Agency 4. Cooperation of the Economy and Finance Committee with the EU Integrations Committee in the following areas: - progress in the EU integrations process State budget: consideration, execution and oversight of implementation harmonization of the legislation with the EU acquis Albania: Economy and Finance Committee 5. Types of analysis to be prepared in order to improve the efficiency of the Economy and finance committee - consideration, execution and oversight of implementation of the state budget - economic policy analysis - fiscal policy analysis - sharing the knowledge and experience with the relevant committees from the region in the areas of common interest 6. Cooperation with the private sector and NGOs - Chambers of commerce - Foreign investors council - SMEs - NGOs 7. Improving the control function of the parliaments over executives: - annual government reports - reports of the relevant ministries related to their work - questions and interpellations Albania: EU integrations committee 1. Cooperation of the EU Integrations Committee with other committees (Economy and Finance Committee) in the following areas: - EU integrations and their influence on the state budget 2. Types of analysis to be prepared in order to improve the efficiency of the EU Integrations Committee - achieved progress in the EU integrations process - progress in the acceptance of the EU acquis - sharing the knowledge and experience with the relevant committees from the region in the area of the EU integration process - initiatives of the committee related to EU integrations 3. Cooperation with the private sector and NGOs - Chambers of commerce - Foreign investors council - NGOs 4. Improving the control function of the parliaments over executives: - reports of the EU integration office related to its work - questions and interpellations related to the EU integration process