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North Korea Case Study
Informative Data
• GDP: 40 Billion US$
o GDP per Capita: 1,700 US$. Ranked comparison to the world: 191
(approximately 193 countries in the world)
• Economy is centralized and focused on self-sufficiency
• Defense Budget: 5.5 billion US$
o Percentage of GDP: 12.5%
• Up to 3 million deaths due to famine between 1995 - 1998
• Exports: 1.684 billion US$ (world ranking in exports: 137)
o Export partners: South Korea 45%, China 35%, Thailand 5%
• Highest percentage of military personnel per capita in the world, and the 5th
largest army in the world.
National Interests
General Goals
• Economic self-sufficiency and growth (linked to Juche ideology)
• Maintaining sovereignty
• Strengthening military power and thus security (Songun ideology: military as the
supreme power)
• Remaining true to communist ideology
• Being open to diplomatic talks on issues and improving international standing (Six
Party Talks)
• Reunification with South Korea (on their terms of no foreign intervention)
Specific Strategies
• Developing nuclear weapon program, and appearing to possess nuclear weapon
strike capability (nuclear reactors capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium
and ballistic missile programs)
•Maintaining Kim Jong-Il’s personality cult, as well as finding a feasibly way to find an
eventual successor to maintain stability in the country.
• Keeping ties with China, mainly because of economic support and China’s large
influence and power in the Asia-Pacific. Important to note China supplies the DPRK
with 70-80% of its fuel.
• Farming opium to then produce heroin which is sold illegally overseas, bringing
revenue for the government
Nature of Power
North Korea’s power lies within their unpredictable nature, and this
promotes fear among the international community as the DPRK is
willing to do anything to survive, and Kim Jong-Il will hold onto power
by any means necessary. The fact that they have the capability for a
nuclear bomb and then coupled with the ability to deliver that payload
using a ballistic missile, poses a major threat to states such as Japan,
South Korea and the US. Because of this, the DPRK can use
brinkmanship as an instrument of power to achieve their goals. This
shows the DPRK’s considerable political and military power, and how
they use both in conjunction to assert themselves in the international
community. In addition to their nuclear capability, North Korea has a
considerably large military, as much of the government spending
(12.5% of their relatively small GDP) is focused on this sector. However
the effectiveness of their forces is limited due to their economic
weakness and lack of resources, such as fuel.
Nature of Power continued…
The secretive nature of North Korea is maintained via its tight control over its
society and who enters or leaves. This means external influence is limited
within the countries borders, making political stability easy to sustain within
the nation. This also creates difficulties for states dealing with the DPRK as
they must only deal with the North Korea Government, all controlled by Kim
Jong-Il himself. Kim Jong-Il is known for regularly rejecting agreements or
even pulling out after agreeing earlier, such as their withdrawal from the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Additionally, the DPRK’s isolationist policies
means they are not apart of many multilateral forums and do not have very
close relations with many states. In export rates, they are currently ranked
137 in world, and only have trade partnerships with 3 countries, showing they
have very few connections and a low flow of capital outside their borders. In
conclusion, North Korea’s power lies within the difficulty to bring them to the
negotiating table as it is incredibly hard to influence them through subtle
forms of power, and their unpredictable nature requires caution when dealing
with them, especially so because they have the capacity for nuclear weapons.
Security and Survival
North Korea’s current situation of an economy which is crumbling and the
resulting humanitarian crisis does not bode well for their future. Millions of
people are starving and live in poor conditions. Fuel and electricity is in short
supply meaning black outs are common even in the capital Pyongyang and cars
are rarely seen. The collapse of the Soviet Union left North Korea without a major
ally who was giving them substantial resources to prop up the communist country.
This collapse followed by devastating floods led to widespread famine and up to 3
million deaths between 1995 and 1998. Only North Korea’s neighbour, China, is
the major communist power left in the Asia Pacific. China has successfully
integrated itself into the capitalist-dominated world economy, and grown
exponentially. However, North Korea has failed to do this and remained isolated,
leading them to a point where they cannot support their own population
adequately. Along with these very real issues for North Korea is the fear of
Western influence impacting upon their sovereignty or even a direct invasion and
removal of Kim Jong-Il’s government by the US. As a communist nation, North
Korea feels threatened by the capitalist neighbors of South Korea and Japan and
their US ties. This combination of the need for resources to bring North Korea out
of economic ruin and the fear of US influence and possible compromise of
security has led to the DPRK’s recent actions attracting criticism from the
international community.
Strategies, instruments and foreign policies
promoting the national interest
To survive in the Post-Cold War period, North Korea has developed it’s own nuclear
weapons program. Beginning with the construction of two nuclear reactors, North Korea
started to produce weapons-grade plutonium. These moves were made soon after the
complete collapse of the Soviet Union, as North Korea felt they needed to establish
themselves in the changing political landscape and protect their interests. The nuclear
weapons program is a safeguard for North Korea, negating the chance for any state to use
direct military force, such as invasion by the United States. This invasion fear is warranted
by North Korea as President Bush declared them apart of the ‘axis of evil’ and have since
invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. In 1994, North Korea’s intentions became apparent when
they agreed to the aid-for-disarmament agreement. This meant that the DPRK were using,
and still are today, the development of nuclear weapons as a tool to receive aid such as fuel
and light-water nuclear reactors to produce electricity. Publicizing nuclear tests as well as
long range missile tests further reinforces the fact to the international community that they
can create nuclear weapons. This reinforcement provokes fear in the international
community and in turn states like the US approach North Korea to stop the program, and
the DPRK responds by demanding aid. This strategy using the nuclear weapon program at
its centre, combines military, political and economic instruments of power to achieve its
aims. Interestingly, this strategy North Korea has adopted goes against there strong
nationalist ideology of ‘Juche’, that is, self-reliance in many forms, including the economy.
Annotated timeline of events and
prediction of future events in the DPRK
nuclear crisis.
See Word doc “DPRK Nuclear Timeline”