Download 27. Deterrence and Limited war

Review of Previous Lecture- Approaches in IR
• Approach: looking at the issue/problem from a particular angle
and explaining the phenomena from the same angle
• Classical Approach: to report and analyze current international
events, issues and problems and then to speculate on these
value of a work is judged by the reputation of the scholar, the
authenticity and reliability of the judgment, evidence for
extensive research, the clarity
• Scientific Approach: IR involve people and thus can be
understood, analyzed, explained and predicted just like other
science discipline
• Aims to develop theories and general principles to help in
understanding international phenomena and predicting events
• Concerned with the method than the substance
• Realism: anarchical world, State protect itself , by seeking
power, national interests only by power, moral principles are
different for individual and state
• Criticism: difficult to define power, difficult to measure power of
a state, states cooperate, State’s action are not solely governed
by seeking power, Unipolar, Arms control and disarmament,
against moral principles
• Idealism: Human being is not bad, mutual cooperation, power
politics and violence will be reformed, world would become a
safe and better place, through education and international
organizations, international law and reason, will form world
government, but far from reality,
Deterrence and Limited War
Dr. Fayyaz Ahmad Faize
Deterrence and Limited War
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Deterrence concept and definition
Forms of Deterrent Threats
Enforcing Deterrence
Types of deterrence
Direct deterrence Extended deterrence: Immediate deterrence
General deterrence
Dangers Behind Defending Protégé
Limited War
Examples of limited war
Why limited war?
Deterrence and Limited War
• In school, teacher punishment and failure in exam is deterrence;
if the student does not work, then punishment
• Parents sadness/anger on not working is deterrence
• In society, if person commit crime then punishment of
imprisonment in jail is a deterrence
• A weaker state will not launch an attack on stronger state due to
sure defeat
• The success of deterrence is thus
measured by how much are the actions that
it tries to prevent are actually stopped
http://changemakers123.blogspot.com/2012/04/surviving-twelfth-problems-atschool.html
Deterrence concept and definition (‫)باز رکھنا‬
• It is measures taken by a state or an alliance of states to prevent
another state from doing a hostile action
• In foreign affairs, deterrence is a strategy intended to prevent an
adversary (enemy) from undertaking an action not yet started.
• The concept of deterrence can be defined as the use of threats
by one party to convince another party to refrain from initiating
some course of action.
• In IR scholarship, a policy of deterrence generally refers to
threats of military retaliation directed by the leaders of one
country to the leaders of another in an attempt to prevent the
other country from resorting to threat or use of military force in
pursuit of its foreign policy goals.
Deterrence cont.
• Deterrence theory holds that nuclear weapons are intended to
deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons,
through the promise of retaliation and possibly Mutually Assured
Destruction(MAD).
• Throughout the Cold War, the US constantly worried about the
possibility of the USSR attacking Western Europe.
• The problem was that in conventional armaments, the Red Army
was much stronger
• A general war over Western Europe almost invariably meant that
the U.S. would have to resort to nuclear weapons. The
Americans could say “If you ever attack Western Europe, we
shall fight back with all we’ve got including nukes.”
http://media.nara.gov/stillpix/330-cfd/1983/DN-SC-83-07132.jpeg
Deterrence cont.
• It should be clear, however, that policies of deterrence in
international politics can include both military and non-military
threats that are intended to prevent both military and nonmilitary courses of action by other states
• Deterrence theory gained popularity as a military strategy
during the cold war with regard to the use of nuclear weapons.
http://rbth.com/articles/2010/10/28/from_nuclear_deterrence_universal_security05073.html
http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2011/03/28/how-risky-is-a-nuclear-doomsday-machine/
Forms of Deterrent Threats
1. Deterrent threats can be military (use of nuclear weapons, air
strikes, bombarding coastal area, hitting strategic sites, no fly
zone etc.)
2. diplomatic (e.g. recall of ambassadors, breaking diplomatic
relations, expelling Diplomats etc.)
3. economic (e.g. denying loans, freezing bank accounts, trade
embargo, blockade)
4. Cultural (e.g. boycotting an event such as Olympic Games).
Situation of India and Pakistan
• India has larger army than Pakistan
• Possesses superiority in conventional
weapons
• Pakistan Nuclear tests in 1998
• Now Nuclear weapon of Pakistan is a deterrence against India’s
expansionist design
• India offered Pakistan to sign for not using nuclear weapons in
case of a war
• Pakistan’s No: Nuclear Weapons is a deterrence and can be
used for territorial integrity
http://www.timelinepakistan.com/pakistan-is-nuclear-power-five-successful-tests-atchaghi/
Enforcing Deterrence
• Deterrence aims to persuade the opponent not to initiate action.
• The demand is made, the consequences of acting are explained
• if the opponent “crosses the line drawn”, then punitive action is
taken
• Deterrence may involve the use of threat to hurt or promise to
reward
• A threat is a pledge to impose costs if the opponent acts
contrary to one’s wishes.
• A promise is a pledge to provide benefits to the opponent if he
acts in accordance with other’s wishes.
• Carrot and Stick Policy
Reward & Threat
https://erakablog.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/the-carrot-or-the-stick/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6416285269/
Both are Costly- Threat and War
• Both can cause change in behavior
• However, both threats and promises are costly to the one
making them
• Threats are costly if the player fails (opponent disobeys)
• And promises are costly, if the plays wins (opponent obeys)
• Example: Suppose US wishes to compel North Korea to
abandon their nuclear program
• Threat is cutting off economic aid, limited air strikes on the
power plants
• Promise is reward to invest in the country, give economic aid,
build other plants
• Deterrence is conservative: it seeks to protect the status quo.
Types of deterrence
i. Direct deterrence: The defender issues a deterrence threat that
prevents the challenger from attacking her. During the Cold War,
both the U.S. and the USSR engaged in direct deterrence with
respect to each other and thus status quo was maintained;
Pakistan Nuclear weapons against India
Summary
• Deterrence concept and definition
• Enforcing Deterrence: Threat and Reward
• Types of deterrence: Direct deterrence,