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Probability Print Activity
1.
What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
2.
What two things do you need to know about an event to determine its probability?
3.
In the Video Interactive, a snowboarder has a choice of runs at the top of a ski
hill.
a.
List all of the possible outcomes by filling in each of the following blanks.
b.
Determine the theoretical probability of choosing any of the runs listed
in Part a by filling in the following blanks.
Favorable Outcomes
Possible Outcomes
=
c.
When you toss a coin, the chance of getting a head or a tail is the same.
We say that the outcomes are equally likely. Are the outcomes listed in
Part a equally likely? Explain.
d.
When the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another
event, the two events are said to be independent events. Are the
outcomes listed in Part a independent events? Explain.
Junior High Math Interactives
2005 Alberta Education (www.LearnAlberta.ca)
Statistics and Probability / Probability / Video Interactive / Print Activity
Page 1 of 5
4.
To estimate some probabilities, we can simulate an experiment by performing a
different experiment that has the same probability. This simulation technique is
known as the Monte Carlo Method and is often completed using technology.
Using the Video Interactive, generate experimental probabilities for 10, 100, and
10 000 trials and fill in each of the following blanks.
a.
10 Trials
Run No.
Experimental Probability
10 Trials
Theoretical Probability
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Junior High Math Interactives
2005 Alberta Education (www.LearnAlberta.ca)
Statistics and Probability / Probability / Video Interactive / Print Activity
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Page 2 of 5
b.
100 Trials
Run No.
Experimental Probability
100 Trials
Theoretical Probability
1
2
3
4
5
6
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%
%
%
%
%
%
Junior High Math Interactives
2005 Alberta Education (www.LearnAlberta.ca)
Statistics and Probability / Probability / Video Interactive / Print Activity
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%
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Page 3 of 5
c.
10 000 Trials
Run No.
Experimental Probability
10 000 Trials
Theoretical Probability
1
2
3
4
5
6
=
=
=
=
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%
%
%
%
%
%
Junior High Math Interactives
2005 Alberta Education (www.LearnAlberta.ca)
Statistics and Probability / Probability / Video Interactive / Print Activity
=
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=
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%
%
%
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Page 4 of 5
5.
Compare the theoretical and experimental probabilities you collected in question
4 to answer the following questions.
a.
For which number of trials is the experimental probability closest to the
theoretical probability? Circle your answer in the following list.
10 Trials / 100 Trials / 10 000 Trials
b.
Using your knowledge of the Monte Carlo Method, complete the
following statement by filling in the blank.
It is better to simulate a
___ number of trials to obtain
(larger / smaller)
experimental probabilities that are extremely close to theoretical
probabilities.
c.
Suppose that the Video Interactive allowed you to simulate 1 000 000
trials. Describe what the bar graph would look like in the Graph view of
the video interactive:
Junior High Math Interactives
2005 Alberta Education (www.LearnAlberta.ca)
Statistics and Probability / Probability / Video Interactive / Print Activity
Page 5 of 5