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Statistics Descriptive Statistics – Numerical Measures 1/71 Contents Measures of location Measures of variability Measures of distribution shape, relative location, and detecting outliers Exploratory data analysis Measures of association between two variables The weighted mean and working with grouped data 2/71 Contents Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location, and Detecting Outliers Exploratory Data Analysis Measures of Association Between Two Variables The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data 3/71 STATISTICS in PRACTICE Small Fry Design is a toy and accessory company that designs and imports products for infants. Cash flow management is one of the most critical activities in the day-today operation of this company. STATISTICS in PRACTICE A critical factor in cash flow management is the analysis and control of accounts receivable. By measuring the average age and dollar value of outstanding invoices. The company set the following goals: the average age for outstanding invoices should not exceed 45 days, and the dollar value of invoices more than 60 days old should not exceed 5% of the dollar value of all accounts receivable. Measures of Location If the measures are computed for data from a sample, they are called sample statistics. If the measures are computed for data from a population, they are called population parameters. A sample statistic is referred to as the point estimator of the corresponding population parameter. Mean The mean of a data set is the average of all the data values. Population mean m. wi xi Sample mean x w x w i i i The sample mean x is the point estimator w of the population mean m. i Sample Mean x x x n i Sum of the values of the n observations Number of observationsin the sample Population Mean m x m Sum of the values of the N observations N Number of observations in the population i Sample Mean Example: Monthly Starting Salaries for a Sample of 12 Business School Graduates Data Sample Mean The mean monthly starting salary x x n i x1 x 2 x12 12 2850 2950 2880 12 35280 2940 12 Sample Mean Example: Apartment Rents Seventy efficiency apartments were randomly sampled in a small college town. The monthly rent prices for these apartments are listed in ascending order on the next slide. Sample Mean 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Sample Mean Median The median of a data set is the value in the middle when the data items are arranged in ascending order. Whenever a data set has extreme values, the median is the preferred measure of central location. Median The median is the measure of location most often reported for annual income and property value data. A few extremely large incomes or property values can inflate the mean. Median Example: Monthly Starting Salaries for a Sample of 12 Business School Graduates We first arrange the data in ascending order. 2710 2755 2850 2880 2880 2890 2920 2940 2950 3050 3130 3325 Middle Two Values Because n = 12 is even, we identify the middle two values: 2890 and 2920. 2890 2920 Median 2905 2 Median For an odd number of observations: 26 18 27 12 14 27 19 7 observations 12 14 18 19 26 27 27 in ascending order the median is the middle value. Median = 19 Median For an even number of observations: 26 18 27 12 14 27 30 19 8 observations 12 14 18 19 26 27 27 30 in ascending order the median is the average of the middle two values. Median = (19 + 26)/2 = 22.5 Mode Example: frequency distribution of 50 Soft Drink Purchases Soft Drink Coke Classic Diet Coke Dr. Pepper Pepsi-Cola Sprite Total Frequency 19 8 5 13 5 50 The mode, or most frequently purchased soft drink, is Coke Classic. Mode 450 occurred most frequently (7 times) Mode = 450 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Percentiles A percentile provides information about how the data are spread over the interval from the smallest value to the largest value. Admission test scores for colleges and universities are frequently reported in terms of percentiles. Percentiles The pth percentile of a data set is a value such that at least p percent of the items take on this value or less and at least (100 - p) percent of the items take on this value or more. Percentiles Example: Monthly Starting Salaries for a sample of 12 Business School Graduates Let us determine the 85th percentile for the starting salary data Percentiles Step 1. Arrange the data in ascending order. 2710 2755 2850 2880 2880 2890 2920 2940 2950 3050 3130 3325 Step 2. P 85 i n 12 10.2 100 100 Step 3. Because i is not an integer, round up. The position of the 85th percentile is the next integer greater than 10.2, the 11th position. Percentiles Arrange the data in ascending order. Compute index i, the position of the pth percentile. i = (p/100)n If i is not an integer, round up. The pth percentile is the value in the ith position. If i is an integer, the pth percentile is the average of the values in positions i and i +1. 90th Percentile i = (p/100)n = (90/100)70 = 63 Averaging the 63rd and 64th data values: 90th Percentile = (580 + 590)/2 = 585 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 90th Percentile “At least 90% of the items take on a value of 585 or less.” “At least 10% of the items take on a value of 585 or more.” 63/70 = .9 or 90% 7/70 = .1 or 10% Quartiles Quartiles are specific percentiles. First Quartile = 25th Percentile Second Quartile = 50th Percentile = Median Third Quartile = 75th Percentile Quartiles Third Quartile Third quartile = 75th percentile i = (p/100)n = (75/100)70 = 52.5 = 53 Third quartile = 525 Measures of Variability It is often desirable to consider measures of variability (dispersion), as well as measures of location. For example, in choosing supplier A or supplier B we might consider not only the average delivery time for each, but also the variability in delivery time for each. Measures of Variability Range Interquartile Range Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Range The range of a data set is the difference between the largest and smallest data values. It is the simplest measure of variability. It is very sensitive to the smallest and largest data values. Range Range = largest value - smallest value Range = 615 - 425 = 190 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Interquartile Range The interquartile range of a data set is the difference between the third quartile and the first quartile. It is the range for the middle 50% of the data. It overcomes the sensitivity to extreme data values. Interquartile Range 3rd Quartile (Q3) = 525 1st Quartile (Q1) = 445 Interquartile Range = Q3 - Q1 = 525 - 445 = 80 Variance The variance is a measure of variability that utilizes all the data. It is based on the difference between the value of each observation (xi) and the mean ( x for a sample, μ for a population). Variance The variance is the average of the squared differences between each data value and the mean. The variance is computed as follows: 2 ( xi x ) s n 1 2 for a sample 2 ( x m ) i 2 N for a population Standard Deviation The standard deviation of a data set is the positive square root of the variance. It is measured in the same units as the data, making it more easily interpreted than the variance. Standard Deviation The standard deviation is computed as follows: s s 2 for a sample 2 for a population Coefficient of Variation The coefficient of variation indicates how large the standard deviation is in relation to the mean. The coefficient of variation is computed as follows: s 100 % x for a sample 100 % m for a population Variance, Standard Deviation, And Coefficient of Variation Variance Standard Deviation s s 2 2996.47 54.74 Variance, Standard Deviation, And Coefficient of Variation Coefficient of Variation s 54.74 100 % 100 % 11.15% x 490.80 the standard deviation is about 11% of of the mean . Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location, and Detecting Outliers Distribution Shape z-Scores Chebyshev’s Theorem Empirical Rule Detecting Outliers Distribution Shape: Skewness(偏 度) An important measure of the shape of a distribution is called skewness. Skewness is a measure of symmetry, or more precisely, the lack of symmetry. The formula for computing skewness for a data set is somewhat complex. Note: The formula for the skewness of sample data 3 n xi x skewness (n 1)(n 2) s Distribution Shape: Skewness Skewness can be easily computed using statistical software. Distribution Shape: Skewness Symmetric (not skewed) Skewness is zero. Mean and median are equal. Distribution Shape: Skewness Relative Frequency .35 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 Skewness = 0 Distribution Shape: Skewness Moderately Skewed Left Skewness is negative. Mean will usually be less than the median. Distribution Shape: Skewness Relative Frequency .35 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 Skewness = - .31 Distribution Shape: Skewness Moderately Skewed Right Skewness is positive. Mean will usually be more than the median. .35 Relative Frequency .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 Skewness = .31 Distribution Shape: Skewness Highly Skewed Right Skewness is positive (often above 1.0). Mean will usually be more than the median. Distribution Shape: Skewness Relative Frequency .35 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 Skewness = 1.25 Distribution Shape: Skewness Distribution Shape: Skewness Example: Apartment Rents Seventy efficiency apartments were randomly sampled in a small college town. The monthly rent prices for these apartments are listed in ascending order on the next slide. Distribution Shape: Skewness 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Distribution Shape: Skewness Relative Frequency .35 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 Skewness = .92 z-Scores The z-score is often called the standardized value. It denotes the number of standard deviations a data value xi is from the mean. xi x zi s z-Scores An observation’s z-score is a measure of the relative location of the observation in a data set. A data value less than the sample mean will have a z-score less than zero. A data value greater than the sample mean will have a z-score greater than zero. A data value equal to the sample mean will have a z-score of zero. z-Scores z-Score of Smallest Value (425) Standardized Values for Apartment Rents -1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.11 0.44 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.01 0.62 1.63 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.34 -0.01 0.62 1.81 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.29 -0.01 0.62 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 0.81 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 1.06 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.20 0.17 1.08 1.99 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.17 1.45 2.27 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.45 2.27 Chebyshev’s Theorem At least (1 - 1/z2) of the items in any data set will be within z standard deviations of the mean, where z is any value greater than 1. Chebyshev’s Theorem At least 75% of the data values must be within z = 2 standard deviations of the mean. At least 89% of the data values must be within z = 3 standard deviations of the mean. At least 94% of the data values must be within z = 4 standard deviations of the mean. Chebyshev’s Theorem For example: wi xi Let z = 1.5 with x = 490.80 and s = 54.74 w i At least (1 - 1/(1.5)2) = 1 - 0.44 = 0.56 or 56% of the rent values must be between wx x - z(s) = 490.80 - 1.5(54.74) = 409 w w and x x + z(s) = 490.80 + 1.5(54.74) = 573 w i i i i i i (Actually, 86% of the rent values are between 409 and 573.) Empirical Rule For data having a bell-shaped distribution: 68.26% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean. 95.44% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean. 99.72% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean. Empirical Rule 99.72% 95.44% 68.26% m – 3 m – 1 m – 2 m m + 3 m + 1 m + 2 x Detecting Outliers An outlier is an unusually small or unusually large value in a data set. A data value with a z-score less than -3 or greater than +3 might be considered an outlier. Detecting Outliers It might be: an incorrectly recorded data value a data value that was incorrectly included in the data set a correctly recorded data value that belongs in the data set Detecting Outliers The most extreme z-scores are -1.20 and 2.27 Using |z| > 3 as the criterion for an outlier, there are no outliers in this data set. Exploratory Data Analysis Five-Number Summary Box Plot Five-Number Summary 1 Smallest Value 2 First Quartile 3 Median 4 Third Quartile 5 Largest Value Five-Number Summary Example: Monthly Starting Salaries for a sample of 12 Business School Graduates Five-Number Summary 2710 2755 2850 2880 2880 2890 2920 2940 2950 3050 3130 3325 Q1=2865 Q2=2905 Q3=3000 (Median) Five-Number Summary Lowest Value = 425 First Quartile = 445 Median = 475 Third Quartile = 525 Largest Value = 615 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Box Plot A box is drawn with its ends located at the first and third quartiles. A vertical line is drawn in the box at the location of the median (second quartile). Box Plot 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 Q1 = 445 Q3 = 525 Q2 = 475 Box Plot Limits are located (not drawn) using the interquartile range (IQR). Data outside these limits are considered outliers. The locations of each outlier is shown with the symbol * . … continued Box Plot The lower limit is located 1.5(IQR) below Q1. Lower Limit: Q1 - 1.5(IQR) = 445 - 1.5(75) =332.5 The upper limit is located 1.5(IQR) above Q3. Upper Limit: Q3 + 1.5(IQR) = 525 + 1.5(75) = 637.5 There are no outliers (values less than 332.5 or greater than 637.5) in the apartment rent data. Box Plot Whiskers (dashed lines) are drawn from the ends of the box to the smallest and largest data values inside the limits. 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 Smallest value inside limits = 425 Largest value inside limits = 615 Box Plot Example: Monthly Starting Salaries for a Sample of 12 Business School Graduates Box Plot Measures of Association Between Two Variables Covariance Correlation Coefficient Covariance The covariance is a measure of the linear association between two variables. Positive values indicate a positive relationship. Negative values indicate a negative relationship. Covariance The covariance is computed as follows: sxy xy ( xi x )( yi y ) n 1 ( xi m x )( yi m y ) N for samples for populations Covariance Example: Sample Data for the Stereo and Sound Equipment Store Data Covariance Scatter Diagram for the Stereo and Sound Equipment Store Sample Covariance S xy (x i x )( y i y ) n 1 99 11 9 Covariance Partitioned Scatter Diagram for the Stereo and Sound Equipment Store Correlation Coefficient The coefficient can take on values between -1 and +1. Values near -1 indicate a strong negative linear relationship. Values near +1 indicate a strong positive linear relationship. Correlation Coefficient The correlation coefficient is computed as follows: rxy sxy sx s y for samples where Sx x x xy for populations 2 i n 1 xy x y Sy y y 2 i n 1 Correlation Coefficient Correlation is a measure of linear association and not necessarily causation. Just because two variables are highly correlated, it does not mean that one variable is the cause of the other. Covariance and Correlation Coefficient A golfer is interested in investigating the relationship, if any, between driving distance and 18-hole score. Average Driving Average Distance (yds.) 18-Hole Score 277.6 259.5 269.1 267.0 255.6 272.9 69 71 70 70 71 69 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient x 277.6 259.5 269.1 267.0 255.6 272.9 y 69 71 70 70 71 69 Average 267.0 70.0 Std. Dev. 8.2192 .8944 10.65 -7.45 2.15 0.05 -11.35 5.95 -1.0 1.0 0 0 1.0 -1.0 -10.65 -7.45 0 0 -11.35 -5.95 Total -35.40 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Sample Covariance sxy (x x )( y y ) 35.40 i i n1 61 7.08 Sample Correlation Coefficient sxy 7.08 rxy -.9631 sx sy (8.2192)(.8944) The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data Weighted Mean Mean for Grouped Data Variance for Grouped Data Standard Deviation for Grouped Data Weighted Mean When the mean is computed by giving each data value a weight that reflects its importance, it is referred to as a weighted mean. In the computation of a grade point average (GPA), the weights are the number of credit hours earned for each grade. When data values vary in importance, the analyst must choose the weight that best reflects the importance of each value. Weighted Mean wx x w i i where: i xi = value of observation i wi = weight for observation i Grouped Data The weighted mean computation can be used to obtain approximations of the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the grouped data. To compute the weighted mean, we treat the midpoint of each class as though it were the mean of all items in the class. Grouped Data We compute a weighted mean of the class midpoints using the class frequencies as weights. Similarly, in computing the variance and standard deviation, the class frequencies are used as weights. Mean for Grouped Data Sample Data fM x i i n Population Data fM m i i N where: fi = frequency of class i Mi = midpoint of class i Sample Mean for Grouped Data Given below is the previous sample of monthly rents for 70 efficiency apartments, presented here as grouped Rent ($) Frequency 420-439 8 data in the form of a 440-459 17 460-479 12 frequency distribution. 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 Sample Mean for Grouped Data Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total fi 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 70 Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total 34, 525 x 493.21 70 This approximation differs by $2.41 from the actual sample mean of $490.80. Variance for Grouped Data For sample data 2 f ( M x ) i i s2 n 1 2 For population data 2 f ( M m ) i i 2 N 2 Sample Variance for Grouped Data Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total fi 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 70 Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total Mi - x -63.7 -43.7 -23.7 -3.7 16.3 36.3 56.3 76.3 96.3 116.3 (M i - x )2 f i (M i - x )2 4058.96 32471.71 1910.56 32479.59 562.16 6745.97 13.76 110.11 265.36 1857.55 1316.96 5267.86 3168.56 6337.13 5820.16 23280.66 9271.76 18543.53 13523.36 81140.18 208234.29 continued Sample Variance for Grouped Data Sample Variance s2 = 208,234.29/(70 – 1) = 3,017.89 Sample Standard Deviation s 3,017.89 54.94 This approximation differs by only $.20 from the actual standard deviation of $54.74.