Download Business Tendency Surveys

Twinning Project, component 6:
Business Trends Statistics
Business Tendency Surveys in
Statistics Denmark
Erik Slentoe (Slentø)
[email protected]
phone +45-39173088
Various short term tendency
Indicators in Statistics Denmark





National accounts (e.g. GDP, and Im- and Export)
Labour market (e.g., jobs, earnings)
Unemployment
Consumption (retail trade, cars, consumer confidence)
Tendency Survey (Construction, Industry, Services,
Retail and Industry investments)
 Property market
 Prices
 Interests and share rates
2
Business Tendency Surveys
All part of EU-project 50/50 financing
4-year framework contracts
 Monthly (and quarterly):





Industry
Construction/building
Services
Retail Trade incl.vehicles
(Consumer survey)
(Sample: 500 / 4.694) > 20 empl.
(Sample: 800 / 27.500 > 1 empl.)
(Sample: 2.950 / 6.832 > 10 empl.)
(Sample: 1.400 / 4.909) > 5 empl.)
 Biannual:

Industry Investments
(Sample:
750 / 5.475 > 20 empl.)
3
Ex.: Construction Tendency Survey (I)





Sample Universe 27.425 companies - 147.706
employees
Sample size: 800 companies – ca. 45000 employees
(about 1/3)
Cut-off limit: none (all companies including 1 mancompanies)
Voluntarily survey
Sample divided in three strata:
- Big companies > 50 employees: all companies are
chosen
- Medium companies 10 - 49 employees; random draw
- Small companies 1- 9 employees; random draw
4
Ex.: Construction Tendency Survey (II)




Panel-survey: companies stays in panel month after
months, year after year until they themselves ask to be
dismissed.
Sample update 1 or 2 times a year
- When sample below 65% (out of initial population)
Respond rate:
- Initially (updated sample): 76%
- After one year: 68 %
Respond channel (pr. January 2014)
- via online system: 39%
- via Paper questionnaire: 61%
5
Monthly Questionnaire
(translated)
Disregard
seasonal
variations
6
7
Division in industries EU vs. DK
F Construction
NACE.2EU demand
NACE.2 Statistics Denmark
41
42
41000 Construction of buildings
42000 Civil engineering
43
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
Specialised construction
activities
43201 Electrical installation etc.
Plumbing, heat and air-conditioning
432200 installation
43301 Joinery installation etc.
43302 Painting and Glazing etc.
439910 Bricklayers
Other specialized construction
43003 activities etc.
8
How we process the incoming data
Industries
41 Construction of buildings
42 Civil engineering
Number of companies in sample
1-9
10-49 >50
empl.
empl. empl
sum
23
31
60
114
Example: Painting and glazing
Comp
> 50installation
employees
43 Electrical
etc.
31
15
39
63
61
45
137
43 Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
31
39
14
84
43 Joinery installation etc.
78
53
30
161
43 Painting and Glazing etc.
43 Bricklayers
34
31
39
23
9
8
82
62
43 Other specialized construction
25
16
14
55
262
277
219
758
Total
9
9
Industry: Painting and Glazing etc. Strata: >50;
Question: Turnover past 3 month compared to previous 3 month
Company
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
Employees
73
55
109
152
99
286
65
59
176
Higher
*
unchanged
lower
no response
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Filling cells with number of employees
Company
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
Employees
73
55
109
152
99
286
65
59
176
Higher
73
unchanged
lower
no response
55
19
So, Answers are weighted by number152of employees
99
(EU also allow to weight
by income)
286
65
59
176
10
Summing the Painting industry
Company Employees Higher
a
73
73
b
55
c
109
d
152
e
99
99
f
286
g
65
65
h
59
i
176
sum
unchanged lower
no response
sum
55
19
152
286
59
176
235
237
450
152
235
839
1074
Up-scaling responses to total number of employees
Company Employees Higher
a
73
73
b
55
c
109
d
152
e
99
99
f
286
g
65
65
h
59
i
176
unchanged lower
no response
Non-response
Response
Total
sum
55
19
152
Ex:
237/839x 1074 = 303
286
59
176
235
sum
237
450
152
Up-scaled
303
576
195
235
839
1074
11
Upscaling the Painting industry from sample to total sector
Company Employees Higher
a
73
73
b
55
c
109
d
152
e
99
99
f
286
g
65
65
h
59
i
176
unchanged lower
no response
55
19
152
286
59
176
235
sum
237
450
152
Up-scaled
303
576
195
984
28%
1868
54%
631
18%
Upscaled
total industry
3482
sum
235
839
1074
100%
Ex:
303/1074 x 3482 = 984
12
Industries
41 Construction of buildings
Number of companies in sample
1-9
10-49 >50
empl.
empl. empl
sum
42 Civil engineering
√
√
√
√
√
√
43 Electrical installation etc.
√
√
√
43 Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
√
√
√
43 Joinery installation etc.
43 Painting and Glazing etc.
43 Bricklayers
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
43 Other specialized construction
√
√
√
Total
13
SUM High
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
Electrical installation etc.
Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
Joinery installation etc.
Painting and Glazing etc.
7749
Bricklayers
Other spec. construction
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
356
432
963
All empl
Unch. Low
SUM High
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
Electrical installation etc.
Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
Joinery installation etc.
Painting and Glazing etc.
7749
Bricklayers
Other spec. construction
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
1-9 empl
Unch. Low
1873
3169
High
533
SUM
2707
100%
10-49 empl
Unch. Low
869
High
1113
984
>50 empl
Unch.
Low
1868
631
All empl
Unch. Low
High
24%
41%
35%
Balance= higher - lower: 24 – 35 = -11
14
1-9 empl
Unch. Low
SUM High
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
Electrical installation etc.
Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
Joinery installation etc.
Painting and Glazing etc.
7749
Bricklayers
Other spec. construction
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
42879
356
432
High
963
533
869
>50 empl
Unch.
Low
High
1113
984
1868
631
3454
All empl
Unch. Low
SUM High
SUM
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
Electrical installation etc.
Plumbing, heat and air-cond.
Joinery installation etc.
Painting and Glazing etc.
27198
6217
12978
8003
Bricklayers
Other spec. construction Confidence indicator
Construction of buildings
Civil engineering
42604
10-49 empl
Unch. Low
6861
22220
100%
All empl
Unch. Low
High
23%
48%
29%
= higher - lower = 16 – 32 = -16
13523
16%
52%
32%
15
Composite confidence indicator
Composite confidence indicator =
Stock of order + employment expectations / 2
Ex:
(3 + (-23) / 2 = -10
Or, if seasonally adjusted:
7 + (-16) / 2 = -5 (rounded)
16
Composite confidence indicator
Nettotal
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
17
Monthly news letter
18
Seasonal Adjustion
 Seasonal adjustment (season, holydays + trading
days)
Using the software “Demetra”
 Method X12

19
weighted Response rate
unweighted Response rate
Dissemination to EU (not seas. adj.)
/
NACE2
1
/
Construction of buildings
41
/
/ 17,7 70,0 12,3 / 63,218,6 5,2 5,5 0,0 4,0 5,9 / 12,8 65,5 21,7 /
9,7 64,2 26,1 /
2,7 80,6 16,7 /
7,9
Civil engineering
42
/
/ 24,3 56,2 19,5 / 69,022,2 3,8 1,2 0,0 5,0 3,0 / 12,5 78,2 9,3 / 18,0 51,6 30,4 /
2,0 80,7 17,3 /
7,4
Specialised construction activities
43
/
/ 20,3 64,2 15,5 / 62,129,2 7,2 2,3 0,7 6,2 1,1 / 13,8 55,6 30,6 / 10,9 64,2 24,9 /
3,3 78,6 18,1 /
3,4
TOTAL
TOTF
/ 20,3 64,3 15,4 / 62,926,8 6,6 2,7 0,5 5,8 2,1 / 13,5 59,3 27,2 / 11,3 63,1 25,6 /
3,1 79,1 17,8 /
4,5
/ 27425
sample size
2014
population
DK
771 72,9
/
/
Q1
+
=
/
-
/ F1
Q2
F2
F3
F4
/
F5
F7
F6 /
Q3
+
=
/
-
/
Q4
+
=
/
-
/
Q5
+
=
/
-
Q6
/ months
20
weighted Response rate
unweighted Response rate
Dissemination to EU
/
NACE2
1
/
Construction of buildings
41
/
/
17,7 70,0 12,3
Civil engineering
42
/
/
24,3 56,2 19,5
Specialised construction
activities
43
/
/
20,3 64,2 15,5
TOTAL
TOTF
/
20,3 64,3 15,4
/
sample size
2014
population
DK
27425 771 72,9
/
/
Q1
+
=
-
21
Survey principles
 Make the Questionnaire simple
 Phrase the questions non-specific

E.g. “turnover” do not go into detail defining what kind of
turnover you mean; rely on “common sense”
 Respondents (managers in the company) should
only use 1 minute to fill the questionnaire
22
Respondent interaction
 Companies in survey are part of panel, i.e.
answering every month

Big companies (> 50 employees) are forced into panel
 Minor and small companies (1-9; 10-49) are chosen
randomly.
 However survey is voluntarily, so…

…If they ask we dismiss them from the survey, however try
to persuade to continue with good arguments:
- For public benefit
- In need of respondents
- You can use the results yourself: read newsletter, extract data from
Statbank
23
The February Survey
 21. January: Send questionnaire by post






Or by email if online-respondent, telling it is time to respond
6th February: Ordinary deadline
13th February: Reminder is send by post/email
20th February: Ultimate deadline
24th February: Dissemination of data to EU
27th February (second last work-day in month)
- Publication of Newsletter
- Publication of data in StatBank
 No revisions
24
Error check
 If figures varies much from last month, the reason is
investigated

Most often, cause is big companies changing answer
 Uncertainty Analyses is performed, however difficult,
since uncertainty varies from month to month
25
STRUCTURE of EU Business and
Consumer Surveys
ECFIN = Directorate General Economic
and Financial Affairs (Brussels)
50/50 partnership
financing
DK
European Union
Montenegro
f.y.r Macedonia
Turkey
26
Pending issue for Denmark (I):
How to ask questions about periods:
True to EU-phrasing AND/OR true to own history?
 We ask “How do you estimate the development has been
for you company in April-June compared to JanuaryMarch”
 EU: “How has your building activity developed over the
past 3 month?”
 We send uniform questionnaires targeting commercial
companies, brings difficulties for public institutions and
non-commercial companies, unions, clubs etc. We ask
them to view the questionnaire abstractly, and. Eg.
translate “turnover” to “member fees” or “grant”
27
Pending issue for Denmark (II):
 We send uniform questionnaires targeting
commercial companies. This brings difficulties for
public institutions and non-commercial companies,
unions, clubs etc. We ask them to view the
questionnaire abstractly, and perceive e.g. “turnover”
to “member fees” or “grant”
28
END
29
Illustrerer med hvilken hastighed (md-til-md) konjunkturerne
bevæger sig opad eller nedad
30
20
Nettotal
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
31
004
003
003
002
002
001
001
000
000
x
-001
-001
y
-002
-002
2012M01
2011M07
2011M01
2010M07
2010M01
2009M07
2009M01
2008M07
2008M01
2007M07
2007M01
2006M07
-004
2006M01
-004
2005M07
-003
2005M01
-003
000
000
000
000
000
Konkret bevares y-værdierne,
mens x-værdierne er udviklingen i y-værdier fra måned til måned
Punkterne angiver måneder
32
Illustrerer med hvilken hastighed (md-til-md) konjunkturerne
bevæger sig opad eller nedad
33
Universe:
- Companies 27.425
- Employees 147.706
Sample (February 2014):
- Companies
758 (initail 800)
- Employees 42.790 (~ 1/3 of universe)
34
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Surveys :
European / not European (in France, some are « French only »)
sectors covered : retail trade, industry, investment, services, building, others ?
are they mandatory ?
in France we have the Cnis (National Council for Statistical Information), a body that represents social partners and statistics users. It expresses their requests and their
needs in terms of production and dissemination and verifies that the rules are applied (obligation to respond and confidentiality). Is there something in Ukraine?
frequency of the surveys : monthly, quarterly… ?
they are conducted among ?? company chiefs like in France ?
Questionnaires :
are they identical each month (in France, they can change in order to reduce the charge for enterprises)?
in France : for one survey, one color (to ease the communication with the surveyed companies)
questions (only the European mandatory ? or others ?)
Management :
The way to collect data : interviewers ? questionnaires sent by Post Office ? internet collection ? several ways ?
How many days have the enterprises to send back the questionnaire ?
Response rate / response rate by survey
If internet is used : response rate ?
Are there” reminder of due date” ? Automatic ?
Are there data control ? who chooses the controls ? how are they performed ?
Non-response : what is done ? If a part of a questionnaire is missing, is there “correction” of this part ?
For the biggest companies which do not answer, is there a fine ?
Can they know “day by day” the response rate, the units to be corrected ?
Use of administrative data to get the turnover (if turnover is used)?
what about profiled units ?
Samples :
How are they chosen : Business register ? Administrative/Statistical register ? Another survey as baisis of sampling ?
Renewal of samples : frequency ? how (exhaustive for the biggest and sampling the smallest)? attrition ?
Dissemination : Publications ? Microdata files ? Do they use different weights ?
35
Monthly Questions
COF
Confidence Indicator (Q3 + Q4) / 2
1
Building activity development over the past 3 months
2
Main factors currently limiting your building activity
3
Evolution of your current overall order books
4
Employment expectations over the next 3 months
5
Prices expectations over the next 3 months
Quarterly Questions
6
Operating time ensured by current backlog (in months)
Answers
B
Balance not seasonally adjusted (not s.a)
F1
None (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F2
Insufficient demand (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F3
Weather conditions (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F4
Shortage of labour force (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F5
Shortage of material and/or equipment (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F6
Other factors (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
F7
Financial constraints (% n.s.a. - monthly question 2)
QM
Number of months (n.s.a. - quarterly question 6)
Frequency
M
Monthly
Q
Quarterly
36