Download Recent Economic Developments in Singapore

17 September 2014
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN
SINGAPORE
4 September 2015
2014
Q3
Q4
2015
Full Year
Q1
Q2
Real Sector
Real GDP Growth, y-o-y %
2.8
2.1
2.9
2.8
1.8
Real GDP Growth, q-o-q saar %
2.6
4.9
-
4.1
−4.0
Index of Industrial Production, y-o-y %
1.7
−1.2
2.7
−2.6
−4.9
Non-oil Domestic Exports, y-o-y %
1.1
0.5
−0.7
4.8
2.1
Unemployment Rate, sa, % (Average)
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.8
2.0
CPI-All Items Inflation, y-o-y %
1.0
0.0
1.0
−0.3
−0.4
Wage Growth, y-o-y %
2.4
0.8
2.3
3.0
3.7
Labour Market and Prices
The Singapore economy contracted in Q2 2015
Singapore’s GDP declined by 4.0% q-o-q saar (quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted
annualised rate) in Q2 2015, following a 4.1% expansion in the previous quarter. The
contraction stemmed largely from the trade-related sectors, which were buffeted by
external headwinds arising from a moderation in regional growth, continued slowdown in
oil exploration activities and softer global demand for electronics.
Moderate global growth is expected in 2015, with risks tilted to
the downside
While the pace of growth in the G3 economies dipped slightly to 1.6% q-o-q saar in Q2 2015
from 1.8% in Q1, a gradual pickup in the coming quarters should help to counter-balance
the weaker performance expected in Asia-ex Japan. However, potential financial stresses
arising from US policy normalisation, as well as persistent weakness in the Chinese
economy, pose downside risks.
Singapore’s GDP growth is projected at 2–2.5% in 2015
Growth in the domestic economy is expected to keep to a modest pace for the rest of the
year. A gradual improvement in the advanced economies should provide some support to
pockets of trade-related industries, amid weakness in regional demand. Meanwhile,
domestic demand will remain broadly resilient despite ongoing supply-side constraints as
firms continue to take steps to boost productivity.
Inflation should remain subdued in the near term
Over the next few months, MAS Core Inflation is expected to hover around the current rate
while CPI-All Items inflation could ease further, given the dampening effects of car prices
and imputed rentals on owner-occupied accommodation. For 2015 as a whole, MAS Core
Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation are projected to come in at the lower half of the
forecast range of 0.5–1.5% and −0.5–0.5% respectively.
Is i
Monetary Authority of Singapore
Economic Policy Group
A. External Developments
G3 growth eased in Q2 2015
The pace of expansion in the G3 economies moderated slightly to 1.6% q-o-q saar in Q2
2015, from 1.8% in Q1, mainly on account of an output contraction in Japan.
Unsurprisingly, the US economy rebounded from an unusually weak first quarter, but the
Eurozone expanded slightly slower than expected. Economic activity in the G3 economies
should pick up from the underlying pace seen in H1 2015, lifting average GDP growth to
1.7% this year and 2.1% in 2016, from 1.3% in 2014.
The US economy posted a strong rebound
after a weak first quarter. GDP growth in Q2
12
2015 came in at 3.7% q-o-q saar, a marked
improvement from an upwardly revised 0.6%
8
in Q1, as the effects of one-off factors
US
4
dissipated. Reflecting some pent-up demand,
0
consumers increased their overall spending
Eurozone
by 3.1% q-o-q saar. Despite the stronger US
-4
dollar, the contribution of net exports to
Japan
-8
aggregate growth swung from −1.9% points in
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
Q1 to 0.2% point in Q2, buoyed by a sharp
Source: Datastream and CEIC
turnaround in goods exports, as the effects of
West Coast port disruptions in Q1 faded. However, gross private investment slackened
somewhat, chiefly due to a 0.4% retraction in equipment spending. Residential investment
growth also eased to 7.8% q-o-q saar in Q2, after posting double-digit rates of expansion in
the previous two quarters.
% QOQ SAAR
Growth in the US and Japan diverged in Q2.
The US economy is on track to achieve moderate growth for the rest of the year. Private
consumption spending will remain the lynchpin of economic activity, supported by a steady
decline in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in July. Retail sales increased by 0.6% m-o-m in
July, compared to an average 0.2% rise over H1 2015, marking a strong start to
consumption spending in Q3. However, relatively modest wage gains, as reflected in a 2.0%
y-o-y increase in the employment cost index in Q2, could limit the extent of the
consumption upswing. Meanwhile, the ongoing recovery in the housing market should
provide further support to both household spending and residential investment. Home
prices have continued to trend upwards, while housing starts and new home sales are at
healthy levels. On the downside, a sequential correction of the build-up of business
inventories in Q2 could weigh on growth in the near term. On balance, US GDP growth is
expected to come in at 2.3% in 2015, before rising to 2.7% in 2016.
The Eurozone performed slightly below expectations. The region’s growth in Q2 eased
marginally to 1.3% q-o-q saar from 1.5% in Q1, as domestic demand in Germany and France
slackened. In Germany, a rebound in exports led to faster growth, although the extent of
Monetary Authority of Singapore
2
Economic Policy Group
the improvement was mitigated by a pullback in construction investment and inventory
destocking. France’s economy stagnated in Q2 despite a positive contribution from net
exports, as consumption spending slowed sharply. Similarly, the pace of expansion in Italy
and the Netherlands decelerated, although both countries managed to maintain positive
growth. The Eurozone’s best performer was Spain, which chalked up robust growth of 4.0%
in Q2, driven by a strengthening labour market. Greece also posted an unexpectedly strong
expansion of 3.7%, in part because consumers and firms frontloaded spending in
anticipation of the imposition of capital controls, which became necessary as deposit flight
quickened towards the end of the quarter.
Economic conditions in the Eurozone will be buttressed by lower oil prices, improving
credit conditions and a stronger export performance. The fall in oil prices since May is
expected to provide additional support to consumption spending through a boost to real
incomes. Further, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) programme
has resulted in a narrowing of the gap between borrowing costs in Germany and the rest of
the Eurozone, which should stimulate credit creation in the peripheral economies. At the
same time, the impact of euro depreciation will continue to feed through, as shown by a
recent pickup in the Eurozone’s trade flows and a notable rise in export orders. However,
the slowdown in emerging market economies could partially neutralise the gains from a
weaker exchange rate. On balance, Eurozone growth is projected to firm to 1.5% in 2015
and 1.8% in 2016.
The Japanese economy contracted in Q2 2015 following a strong first quarter. Growth fell
to −1.6% q-o-q saar in Q2 2015 from 4.5% in Q1, largely due to a cutback in private
consumption and a decline in net exports. After expanding for three straight quarters,
household spending fell by 3.0% due in part to unseasonable weather, subtracting 1.8%
points from GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, exports plunged by 16.5% in
Q2 amid lacklustre external demand, particularly from the region. Nonetheless, both public
investment and private residential investment growth provided some offsetting support,
with the former surging by 10.7% q-o-q saar and the latter expanding at a firm clip of 8%.
After a double-digit increase in the previous quarter, non-residential investment languished
in Q2.
In the second half of the year, a gradual pickup in domestic demand should support a
modest recovery in Japan. While incomes have not picked up discernibly so far despite a
decline in the unemployment rate, continued tightness in the labour market and higher
pay-outs from this year’s wage negotiations should provide support to private consumption
in the next few quarters. Nonetheless, the Japanese economy faces near-term downside
risks and strong regional headwinds. Industrial production in Q3 2015 will be hampered by
the build-up in inventories in earlier quarters, while subdued growth in China and the
ASEAN economies—major markets for Japan—could pose a drag on exports. Overall, the
Japanese economy is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
CPI inflation in the G3 economies remained
at 0.1% y-o-y in Q2 2015, unchanged from
4
Q1. US consumer prices were flat on a y-o-y
Japan
3
Eurozone
basis in Q2, after a small decline in Q1. Core
2
inflation was stable at 1.8%, reflecting
US
diminishing spare capacity in light of a
1
tightening labour market. In the Eurozone,
0
headline inflation rose to 0.2% y-o-y in Q2,
-1
from −0.3% in Q1, as the negaƟve impact of
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
low fuel prices were offset by the euro’s
Q2
depreciation. In comparison, core inflation
Source: Datastream and CEIC
ticked up only slightly to 0.8% from 0.7%,
suggesting that substantial slack remains in the region. In Japan, headline CPI inflation fell
sharply to 0.5% y-o-y in Q2 from 2.3% in Q1, largely on account of high base effects from
the April 2014 consumption tax hike. Stripping out the effects of the tax increase, inflation
on a year-ago basis in Q2 rose by 0.2% point from the preceding quarter. With global oil
prices likely to remain below 2014 levels for some time, the headline inflation rate in the G3
economies is projected to average 0.4% in 2015, with an increase to 1.6% seen in 2016.
% YOY
G3 inflation remained low in Q2.
Asia ex-Japan growth softened in Q2 2015
Economic activity in Asia ex-Japan slowed to
4.7% y-o-y in Q2 2015 from 5.0% in Q1. The
14
lacklustre Chinese economy and slumping
12
global commodity prices depressed trade
10
flows within the region, which accentuated
India
China
8
subdued demand from the advanced
6
ASEAN-4*
economies. Weak exports in turn weighed on
4
domestic demand in the ASEAN-4 economies,
2
NEA-3*
even as country-specific factors posed further
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
drags. In the second half of 2015, the region
Q2
will have to confront additional growth
Source: CEIC and EPG, MAS estimates
* Regional groupings are weighted by Singapore's non-oil dampeners and risk factors such as a rise in
domestic exports (2009–13 average).
borrowing costs, capital outflows, and
Note: NEA-3 refers to Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan while
ASEAN-4 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the possible financial stresses arising from high
Philippines.
debt levels. Taking these into account,
growth in Asia ex-Japan is expected to come in lower at 4.8% for 2015, compared to 5.2% in
2014.
% YOY
Growth in Asia ex-Japan eased in Q2.
China’s GDP grew by 7.0% y-o-y in Q2 2015, the same pace as in Q1. In sequential terms,
growth accelerated to 1.7% q-o-q sa, from 1.4% in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, the
expansion was uneven and primarily driven by the services sector, with a large contribution
from financial services. In Q2, as China’s stock market was reaching its peak, equity trading
raised financial sector value-added by 17.4% y-o-y year-to-date, fuelling an 8.4% rise in the
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
output of the tertiary sector. Meanwhile, industrial production growth edged down further
to 6.3% y-o-y in the second quarter, weighed down by excess capacity and flagging orders.
However, there are tentative signs that China’s property market is beginning to recover, as
commodity real estate sales posted growth of 13.3% y-o-y in Q2 2015—the first expansion
in six quarters. Still, construction starts declined in the quarter, as developers cleared their
housing stocks instead of building new units. Consequently, fixed asset investment growth
continued to downshift, falling from 13.5% y-o-y year-to-date in Q1 this year to 11.4% in
Q2, in spite of robust infrastructure spending. Growth in retail spending also slipped to
10.2% y-o-y from 10.6% in the preceding quarter, alongside an easing of labour market
conditions.
Negative sentiment in the wake of the recent stock market turbulence will cloud China’s
growth outlook in H2 2015. While direct effects on consumer spending and private sector
investment are not expected to be sizeable, the slump in stock prices will further dent
already fragile sentiment and reduce the contribution of financial services to GDP growth.
The concurrent declines in the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in August, to 49.7 and
47.3 respectively, point to further production weakness and sluggish domestic and external
demand. Nonetheless, the Chinese authorities are expected to continue with policy
support to stabilise growth. In addition to successive rate cuts and reductions in reserve
requirements since late 2014, the government has been steadily ramping up infrastructure
investment, tapping on policy bank lending and seeking to ease local governments’
financing constraints. As a result, China’s GDP growth is projected to be 6.9% this year,
close to the official target, before dipping to 6.7% next year.
India’s GDP growth remained firm in Q2 2015, driven by strong domestic demand. The
economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the second quarter, slower than the 7.5% registered in Q1.
Private consumption made the largest contribution of 4.3% points to overall growth.
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation growth picked up to 4.9% y-o-y in Q2, from 4.1%
in the previous quarter, in tandem with the Modi administration’s measures to raise
infrastructure spending. With the start of the new financial year, government expenditure
increased by 1.2% y-o-y in Q2 2015, following a contraction in Q1 when the government cut
back on spending to meet the full-year fiscal target. Looking ahead, the momentum in the
Indian economy is expected to be sustained, with growth projected at 7.7% in FY20161 and
picking up further to 8.0% in the following year.
Economic activity in the NEA-3 economies shrank in Q2 2015, as exports were hit by
China’s manufacturing slowdown. The combined GDP of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong
contracted by 0.9% q-o-q saar in Q2, after expanding by 2.9% in Q1. Despite resilient
domestic demand in Taiwan and Hong Kong, sagging trade with China depressed growth
outturns in both economies. Taiwan’s GDP contracted by 6.6% q-o-q saar after an increase
of 2.3% in Q1, while Hong Kong’s economic growth eased to 1.6% q-o-q saar from 3.0% in
1
India reports its economic figures on a Financial Year basis. FY2016 refers to the period from April 2015 to March 2016.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
the preceding quarter. In Korea, the onset of the MERS pandemic in June compounded the
retrenchment in external demand, dragging growth in Q2 down to 1.3% q-o-q saar. Looking
ahead, the expected strengthening of demand from the advanced economies and consumer
IT product launches in Q3 should boost shipments modestly in Korea and Taiwan, and
provide some support to manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, favourable labour market
conditions in Hong Kong should underpin private consumption growth. However, a sharper
deceleration in China’s economy and currency adjustments in Asia following the recent
RMB devaluation pose downside risks to the NEA’s near-term economic outlook. On the
whole, the region’s growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2015, before rising to 3.0% in 2016.
In the ASEAN-4 economies, domestic demand has begun to moderate in the face of
persistent external headwinds and country-specific factors. Slowing demand from China
and the global slump in commodity markets have severely dampened exports of
commodities and manufactured products, with outright contractions in goods exports
registered by most countries. The weak export performance over the past few quarters has
also started to exert a drag on domestic spending. In Malaysia and Thailand, private
consumption growth moderated sharply in Q2 due to weak wage and farm income growth,
as well as poor consumer sentiment. Household spending in Indonesia stayed fairly
resilient in Q2, but its growth has downshifted compared to a year ago. In line with the
deceleration in manufacturing and mining activities, businesses in most ASEAN-4 countries
have held back capital expenditures on machinery and equipment. Nevertheless, public
spending has picked up in most economies, providing some offset to the weakness in
private domestic demand and exports. There was a ramp-up in investment spending in
Thailand as well as higher public consumption expenditures in Malaysia, Thailand and the
Philippines. Among the ASEAN-4 countries, Malaysia saw the largest pullback in growth,
from 5.6% y-o-y in Q1 2015 to 4.9% in Q2, reflecting the highly open nature of its economy,
its heavy exposure to commodities, as well as the effect of idiosyncratic factors such as the
implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April this year. Indonesia registered
stable GDP growth of 4.7% y-o-y in Q2 in spite of subdued domestic demand, owing to
severe import compression, particularly in capital goods. In Thailand, GDP growth dipped
marginally from 3.0% y-o-y in Q1 to 2.8% in Q2, even though the economy was supported
by buoyant tourism-related activities. The Philippines saw a pickup in GDP growth, from
5.0% y-o-y in Q1 to 5.6% in Q2, although the improvement was mainly due to stronger
inventory accumulation.
The ASEAN-4 economies are projected to grow by 4.5% in 2015, slightly weaker than last
year’s 4.7%. Within the region, growth outcomes are expected to diverge significantly.
Malaysia is expected to see a sharper deceleration in growth, from 6.0% in 2014 to
4.5–5% this year. Oil and gas exports are expected to stay flaccid, even as private sector
activity softens with elevated household indebtedness and weakening consumer and
business confidence. In Indonesia, GDP growth will stay at around 5% for the second year
in a row, a step-down from the historical average of 6% in 2010–13. The country’s
commodity-related industries are being negatively affected by prolonged price weakness
and muted demand, particularly from China. The Philippines is projected to turn in the best
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
performance in the region, growing by 5.5–6%, on the back of sustained strength in private
consumption and the ongoing construction of basic infrastructure. GDP growth in Thailand
is also expected to improve this year, but stay sub-par at around 2.5–3%. Economic activity
will be increasingly driven by public sector construction, as growth in tourist arrivals
moderates following a strong surge in H1 2015. Positive spillovers on private spending may
come through only with a considerable lag, given subdued investor sentiment and the
highly leveraged household sector.
Headline inflation in Asia ex-Japan was
largely contained in Q2 2015. CPI inflation
16
for the region as a whole rose marginally to
2.3% y-o-y in Q2 from 2.2% the quarter
12
before. Headline inflation in the ASEAN-4
India**
economies rose slightly to 4.2% y-o-y in Q2
8
ASEAN-4*
from 3.9% in Q1, owing chiefly to the
4
introduction of the GST in Malaysia and
China
NEA-3*
higher food prices in Indonesia, which more
0
than offset lower inflation prints in Thailand
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
and the Philippines due to benign energy
Source: CEIC and EPG, MAS estimates
prices.
China’s headline inflation also
* Regional groupings are weighted by 2013 nominal GDP.
** India’s series uses CPI (Industrial Workers) prior to 2012. increased slightly in Q2 but remained mild at
1.4%, even as food prices rose at a faster pace as a result of resurgent pork prices. CPI
inflation in the NEA-3 declined to 0.6% y-o-y in Q2 on the back of restrained oil prices, while
headline inflation in India also eased to 5.1% on lower food inflation. Given developments
to date and easing growth momentum, headline inflation in Asia ex-Japan is projected to
moderate to 2.3% in 2015, before rising to 2.9% next year.
% YOY
CPI inflation stayed subdued in Asia ex-Japan.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
7
Economic Policy Group
Table 1: Consensus Forecasts of GDP Growth
Industrial
US
Japan
Eurozone
UK
NEA-3
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
ASEAN-4
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
China
India*
Forecast
2015
2016
Percent
2013
2014
1.5
1.6
−0.3
1.7
2.4
−0.1
0.9
3.0
2.3
0.8
1.5
2.6
2.7
1.7
1.8
2.5
3.1
2.9
2.2
2.5
3.3
3.8
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.3
3.3
5.6
4.7
2.8
7.1
7.7
5.1
5.0
6.0
0.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
4.8
4.8
2.9
5.8
6.9
7.3**
5.2
5.0
3.6
6.0
6.7
7.7
Source: CEIC and Consensus Economics, Aug 2015
*Refers to fiscal year ending Mar.
**Actual GDP growth.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
B. Domestic Developments
Weakness in the trade-related
Singapore economy in Q2 2015
industries
weighed
on
the
The Singapore economy saw some pullback in Q2 2015, with GDP falling by 4.0% q-o-q saar,
following a 4.1% expansion in the preceding quarter. The weak outcome was largely on
account of the trade-related industries. Notably, the manufacturing sector registered its
largest decline since Q2 2011, against cyclical headwinds arising from cutbacks in global oil
exploration activities and some softening in global demand for electronics. Trade-related
services were also buffeted by a slowdown in the region.
% Point Contribution to IIP
QOQ SA Growth
The manufacturing sector recorded a steep
contraction of 18.3% q-o-q saar in Q2 2015. Manufacturing activities saw a broad-based
retraction in Q2 2015.
Apart from the chemicals industry, all other
Electronics
Chemicals
Biomedical
Precision Eng
clusters experienced sharp declines, with the
Transport Eng
General Mfg
Overall IIP
transport engineering and biomedical sectors
9
6
accounting for around two-thirds of the
3
slump in overall production. While the
0
marine & offshore engineering segment
-3
continued to be hampered by postponed rig
-6
deliveries amid falling oil prices, a switch in
-9
product-mix towards lower value-added
2012
2013
2014
2015 Q2
products posed a drag on pharmaceuticals
output.
Electronics-related output was likewise subdued—particularly in the
semiconductor segment—on the back of a slowdown in global PC sales.
Sluggish industrial production in turn impinged on activity in the trade-related service
industries, as evident from the 4.1% q-o-q sa decline in total export volumes in Q2 2015.
The pullback in intra-regional trade flows during the quarter further compounded the
downshift in wholesale trade performance. Muted Asian import demand for capital goods,
arising from weaker regional growth prospects, took a toll on Singapore’s wholesale trade
in industrial machinery and transport equipment. Amid these regional headwinds, the
transportation & storage sector registered a fall-off in activity. The decline was most
pronounced in the water transport segment, where sea cargo volumes across both the
container and bulk cargo categories contracted sharply.
Following a lacklustre outturn in Q1 2015, activities in the financial services sector picked
up in the recent quarter and expanded by 2.5% q-o-q saar. The support came largely from
the sentiment-sensitive cluster, with the fund management industry recording strong
growth. Concomitantly, average daily turnover on the local bourse rose by 29.7% q-o-q, its
first expansion since Q1 2014, bolstered by a spurt of trading interest in April. However,
investor sentiment was tempered in the latter half of the quarter as the escalation of the
Greek debt crisis and the Chinese stock market rout triggered risk-off jitters. On the
financial intermediation front, sluggish offshore non-bank lending was a dampener on
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
growth. ACU non-bank lending contracted by 0.3% q-o-q during the quarter, in part due to
lacklustre credit demand from East Asia. Notably, trade financing extended to East Asian
customers eased significantly, alongside the general slowdown in regional trade.
Tourism-related activities saw a marginal improvement in Q2 2015, led by an uptick in
visitor arrivals from the Southeast Asian economies. Nonetheless, arrivals from other major
markets such as Europe and China fell across the board during the quarter, as compared to
Q1. More broadly, the domestic tourism sector continues to be hampered by currency
weakness in some regional economies. Consequently, accommodation & food services
posted a sequential contraction of 1.4% q-o-q saar in Q2, after declining by 6.5% in the
preceding quarter.
Index (Q1 2010=100), SA
Meanwhile, the domestic-oriented sector
remained largely supportive of overall Construction activities remained firm in Q2.
180
growth, on the back of resilient building
Residential Certified
Payments
activities. The construction sector recorded
160
its fourth consecutive quarter of growth,
Civil Engineering
140
Certified Payments
rising by 2.9% q-o-q saar in Q2 2015. The
120
increase in activity was driven mainly by the
civil engineering segment as transport
100
Non-residential
infrastructural works, such as the land
Certified Payments
80
preparation works for Changi Airport
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
Terminal 5, continued apace. In the non- Source: EPG, MAS estimates
residential segment, works on commercial
projects—such as the CapitaGreen office tower and South Beach mixed used
development—also gathered momentum. However, certified payments in the residential
segment eased, with weak activity spilling over into real estate services growth, which
stalled in Q2.
Consumer-facing services turned in another quarter of modest growth, with overall retail
sales volume expanding by 0.8% q-o-q sa in Q2 2015. The increase was driven by buoyant
motor vehicle sales, which surged by 23.5% q-o-q sa on the back of sustained replacement
demand for cars nearing the 10-year COE expiry mark. Retail sales excluding motor vehicle
sales, however, fell for the second consecutive quarter, by 2.6% q-o-q sa, weighed down by
declines in both the discretionary and sentiment-sensitive segments.
The domestic economy is expected to expand by 2–2.5% in 2015
The Singapore economy is likely to be on a modest growth trajectory for the rest of the
year. GDP growth is forecast to come in at 2–2.5% in 2015. Gradual improvements in the
advanced economies, particularly the US, should impart some impetus to Singapore’s
external-oriented industries. Expansions in the global IT industry, on the back of the launch
of newer versions of smartphones and Windows 10 in Q3 this year, will also benefit certain
pockets of the domestic electronics cluster. However, the extent to which the local IT
Monetary Authority of Singapore
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Economic Policy Group
industry is able to leverage on such cyclical upticks will be capped by the ongoing transitions
taking place, as some firms move towards higher margin activities such as chip design and
delivery of IT services.
At the same time, the synchronised slowdown in China and the ASEAN economies could
weigh on demand for external-facing services, such as merchanting trade, transport &
storage and accommodation & food services. More recently, the Bangkok bombings on 17
August could crimp demand for Southeast Asian tours with negative spillovers to
Singapore’s tourism industry. Subdued growth prospects in the region may also dampen
growth in offshore lending in the near term. The transport engineering segment continues
to be buffeted by the downshift in global oil exploration activities amid sustained weakness
in oil prices.
The domestic-oriented sectors should continue to buttress overall growth for the rest of the
year. In particular, the construction sector has a pipeline of public sector-driven projects in
healthcare and education, as well as in transport infrastructure. Demand for information &
communications services is also expected to be firm, underpinned by the government’s
“Smart Nation” initiative, which includes procurement of a wide range of IT services and
infrastructure.2
There are potential external and domestic headwinds to growth. Transitional drags in
China from ongoing reforms and persistent weakness in residential construction activity
could weigh on prospects in the region. Recent volatility in the Chinese stock and currency
markets may also dampen investor and business sentiments in the near term. Further, the
regional economies face the risk of capital outflows on account of the Fed’s impending
interest rate hike, alongside a strengthening US dollar. In Europe, the issues surrounding
the Greek bailout programme have not been resolved and policy missteps could still pose a
setback to short-term growth in the Eurozone region.
On the domestic front, there are challenges as the restructuring towards productivity-led
growth proceeds apace. Notably, companies will face continued margin pressures amid the
tight labour market environment. Notwithstanding the short-term challenges to growth,
the restructuring exercise would facilitate Singapore’s transformation into a knowledgeand skills-intensive economy over the medium term, characterised by productivity-led
growth. This is in line with Singapore’s evolving comparative advantage and will set the
stage for a new phase of sustainable growth for a mature economy with binding resource
constraints.
2
In May 2015, the government announced that it will be launching $2.2 billion worth of ICT tenders in FY2015 to procure
digital and data services, web services, and information communications infrastructure to develop the Smart Nation Platform.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
11
Economic Policy Group
C. Labour Market and Consumer Prices
Overall employment grew by 15,700 in Q2 2015
Preliminary estimates showed that overall employment expanded by 15,700 in Q2 2015,
after contracting by 6,100 in the preceding quarter. The pickup reflected increased hiring in
the construction and services sectors, and fewer job losses in the manufacturing sector.
In line with the stronger expansion in public sector construction activities, headcount in
construction grew by 7,800 in Q2 2015, after declining by 3,600 in the previous quarter. The
services industries added 11,400 workers in the same quarter, significantly more than the
4,300 jobs created in the previous three months. The step-up in services employment was
supported by the expansion in healthcare and social services, as well as the hiring of
temporary workers due to the hosting of the SEA Games in June.
The manufacturing cluster cut 3,500 jobs in Q2 2015, after shedding 6,900 workers in the
previous quarter. The contraction in manufacturing employment reflected the ongoing
restructuring in the electronics industry, while concurrently, lower oil prices continued to
weigh down activity and hiring in the transport equipment segment, including the offshore &
marine industry.
Per Cent, SA
Changes in Employment ('000)
The unemployment rate picked up slightly in
Q2 2015. Although the overall seasonally- The overall unemployment rate stayed low in
adjusted unemployment rate rose from three Q2 2015.
Construction
Services Industry
months ago, it stayed low at 2.0% in Q2 2015,
Manufacturing
Overall Unemployment Rate (RHS)
60
2.4
the same level as that a year ago. At the same
time, the job vacancy rate remained high and
40
2.2
the incidence of redundancy fell. The number
20
2.0
of layoffs declined to 3,100 in Q2, compared to
3,500 in the preceding quarter. Reflecting the
0
1.8
tight labour market, wage growth rose to 3.7%
-20
1.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
y-o-y in Q2 2015, from 3.0% in the previous
Q2
quarter. However, the wage gain was uneven
across sectors, being stronger in transport & storage, retail trade and community, social &
personal (CSP) services, while weaker in professional services and information &
communications.
Looking ahead, the labour market will remain generally tight, with the vacancy rate
elevated and the unemployment rate low. Wage pressures could be sustained in pockets of
industries where manpower shortages are more acute, such as CSP, and in sectors facing
relatively firmer demand conditions, such as construction.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
12
Economic Policy Group
CPI Inflation eased further in Q2 2015
% YOY
Inflation has remained subdued, mainly
reflecting the impact of sharply lower global MAS Core Inflation rose in July 2015, while CPIAll Items inflation eased.
oil prices and Budget measures to help
6
CPI-All Items Inflation
households cope with the cost of living. At
the same time, the pass-through of domestic
4
costs to consumer prices was moderate, given
the slower growth environment. As a result,
2
MAS Core Inflation
MAS Core Inflation, which excludes the costs of
0
accommodation and private road transport,
eased from 1.1% y-o-y in Q1 2015 to 0.2% in
-2
Q2, before picking up slightly to 0.4% in July.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 Jul
CPI-All Items inflation was further dampened
by the decline in housing rentals, edging down to −0.4% in Q2 2015 and July, from −0.3% in
Q1.
External price pressures continued to be weak. Prices of direct oil-related items3 fell by
10.4% in Q2 2015 following the 11.2% drop in Q1, due to a smaller decline in petrol pump
prices as petrol duty rates increased. The overall decline in the prices of oil-related items
moderated further to 8.0% in July, owing to a smaller reduction in electricity tariffs on a yearago basis.4 Meanwhile, food inflation eased to 1.9% in Q2 2015 and July, from 2.3% in Q1, as
the impact of supply disruptions on regional food prices abated, and various temporary
supermarket price discounts kicked in.
Services inflation slowed to 0.7% in Q2 2015 and 0.6% in July, from 1.4% in Q1, as Budget
measures, including the reduction in the concessionary foreign domestic worker levy and the
waiver of national examination fees, dampened price increases in domestic services and
education.5 Recreational & cultural services fees also fell in July on account of SG50-related
price discounts for admission to some places of interest.
Accommodation cost eased further, while private road transport cost fell slightly in July.
Accommodation cost declined by 2.5% and 2.8% in Q2 2015 and July respectively, extending
the 2.1% fall in Q1, reflecting the continued softening of the housing rental market. Private
road transport cost rose by 0.1% in Q2 2015 and fell by 0.1% in July, compared to the 4.9%
drop in Q1, mainly on account of fluctuations in COE premiums.
3
Direct oil-related items include electricity, liquefied petroleum gas and gas for domestic use, as well as fuels & lubricants
(including petrol).
4
Compared to Apr–Jun 2015, electricity tariffs rose in July, given the increase in global oil prices in the previous quarter. The
fuel cost component of the electricity tariff is based on the average forward fuel oil and dated Brent prices in the first two and
a half months in the preceding quarter, and makes up approximately half of the electricity tariff.
5
As announced in Budget 2015, examination fees have been waived for Singaporeans in Government-funded schools taking
the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE), Singapore-Cambridge General Certificate of Education (GCE) ‘N’, ‘O’ and ‘A’
levels, as well as for Singaporeans enrolled full-time in Polytechnics and Institutes of Technical Education (ITE).
Monetary Authority of Singapore
13
Economic Policy Group
External sources of inflation are expected to stay generally benign, given ample supply
buffers in the major commodity markets. Notably, global oil prices are likely to be subdued
and come in much lower for the whole of 2015 compared to the US$93 average recorded last
year. Similarly, global food commodity prices should remain soft in the near term owing to
abundant stockpiles, but they could recover subsequently given the risks to global food
harvests from the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Domestic price influences are likely to be contained. While some domestic cost pressures
could persist due to the tight labour market, the extent to which businesses pass on
accumulated costs to consumer prices could be tempered by the modest economic growth
environment. At the same time, Budget measures6 will help to alleviate some of the price
pressures faced by consumers.
Going forward, MAS Core Inflation is expected to remain subdued in the near term. CPI-All
Items inflation could ease further, given the dampening effects of car prices and imputed
rentals on owner-occupied accommodation amid the anticipated increase in the supply of
COEs and newly-completed housing units.7 MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation
could rise towards the end of the year and are expected to pick up further in 2016, as the
effects of the budgetary measures and the drag from the earlier fall in global oil prices
dissipate on a year-ago basis. For 2015 as a whole, MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items
inflation are projected to come in at the lower half of the forecast range of 0.5–1.5% and
−0.5–0.5% respectively.
6
The recent budgetary measures include the reduction in the concessionary foreign domestic helper levy, the one-year road
tax rebates, and the abolition of national examination fees for Singaporeans. These are on top of the increase in medical
subsidies, which will continue to dampen inflation on a year-ago basis until early 2016.
7
CPI-All Items inflation is expected to be lower in August 2015, largely due to the significantly higher base in August last year
when COE premiums surged.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
14
Economic Policy Group
D. Macroeconomic Policies
Monetary Policy: MAS maintained the policy stance in April 2015
Index (2–5 Apr 2012 Average =100)
In April 2015, MAS kept the S$NEER policy
band on a modest and gradual appreciation MAS maintained the modest and gradual
appreciation path of the S$NEER policy band in
path, with no change to the slope, width and
April 2015.
level at which it was centred. This policy
106
Appreciation
stance was assessed to be consistent with the
104
benign inflation outlook and moderate
growth prospects in 2015, as well as
102
appropriate for ensuring medium-term price
100
stability in the economy.
Depreciation
98
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
The Singapore economy is on track to grow
2015
2012
2013
2014
at a modest pace in 2015. Global growth
indicates release of Monetary Policy Statement
prospects remain uneven, with the recovery
in the G3 providing some support to Singapore’s external-oriented sectors. However, the
latter’s expansion could be capped by ongoing reconfigurations in the electronics industry.
In comparison, the domestic-oriented sectors, especially those with firm underlying
demand, such as healthcare and education, should stay broadly resilient. In August 2015,
the Ministry of Trade & Industry narrowed the GDP growth forecast for the full year to
2–2.5%.
Inflationary pressures are expected to be muted in the near term. MAS Core Inflation is
expected to remain subdued as external price pressures should be contained due to
favourable supply conditions in key commodity markets. CPI-All Items inflation could ease
further, given the dampening effects of car prices and imputed rentals on owner-occupied
accommodation amid the anticipated increase in the supply of COEs and newly-completed
housing units respectively. MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation could rise towards
the end of the year and are expected to pick up further in 2016, as the effects of the
budgetary measures and the drag from the earlier fall in global oil prices dissipate on a
year-ago basis. For 2015 as a whole, MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation are
projected to come in at the lower half of the forecast ranges of 0.5–1.5% and −0.5–0.5%
respectively. However, given the supply constraints in the labour market, underlying cost
pressures risk mounting and passing through more strongly to consumer prices over the
medium term.
In August 2015, MAS reaffirmed the monetary policy stance that was announced in April
2015. Amid the global foreign exchange market volatility following the shift in China’s
Monetary Authority of Singapore
15
Economic Policy Group
exchange rate policy, MAS reiterated that the domestic monetary policy stance remained
appropriate from the perspective of overall macroeconomic conditions.8
Fiscal Policy: The FY2015 Budget focused on laying the
foundations for future growth and strengthening social security
The FY2014 Budget outcome was a smaller deficit of $0.1 billion (0.0% of GDP), compared
to the $1.2 billion shortfall projected earlier. This was mainly due to higher-than-expected
revenue from motor vehicle taxes, vehicle quota premiums and corporate income tax,
which more than offset a slightly larger expenditure outturn on manpower.
Budget 2015 was centred on building Singapore’s future in four major areas. First, it
focused on developing human capital. Details of the SkillsFuture initiative were unveiled,
encompassing credits for work skills-related courses, awards to develop mastery in
specialist skills in identified growth clusters, training support for mid-career workers, and
stronger industry collaboration, among other measures. The wide range of measures would
help Singaporeans develop deep skills and expertise, with the government playing the role
of an active enabler.
Second, the Budget aimed to entrench the impact of past restructuring initiatives by
expanding on previous measures to boost innovation and internationalisation. Financial
support to encourage firms to innovate and venture abroad was increased. Budget 2015
also introduced concessionary tax rates for internationalising firms, and piloted a new risksharing scheme to provide young and fast-growing companies with alternative financing
options. To give businesses more time to adjust to rising costs as they restructure, the
Transition Support Package, which was due to lapse in 2015, would instead be phased out
gradually—the Wage Credit Scheme and Corporate Income Tax Rebate were extended,
although the Productivity and Innovation Credit Bonus was allowed to expire. There was
also a deferment in the previously announced foreign worker levy increases, to help firms
gradually adapt to a permanently tight labour market.
Third, major infrastructural investments were committed to meet Singapore’s future
economic and social needs. These included the development of Changi Airport’s new
terminal T5, improvements in housing estates and the public transport system, as well as
the expansion in the capacity of hospitals and nursing homes.
Fourth, Budget 2015 made further strides in strengthening social security for lower- and
middle-income Singaporeans. Building on existing measures in our social security
framework, such as Workfare and enhanced medical subsidies for the elderly, this Budget
introduced the Silver Support Scheme, which provides an income supplement for the
bottom 20–30% of Singaporeans aged 65 and above based on their lifetime income, extent
8
Please refer to the 12 August 2015 MAS media release “Singapore Dollar Remains Within Policy Band in Face of Market
Volatility” at http://www.mas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Media-Releases/2015/MAS-Singapore-Dollar-Remains-WithinPolicy-Band-in-Face-of-Market-Volatility.aspx
Monetary Authority of Singapore
16
Economic Policy Group
of family support, and housing type. The Budget also aimed to enhance CPF savings by
raising the salary ceiling to benefit middle-income workers, and increasing CPF contribution
rates as well as interest rates earned on CPF balances for Singaporeans aged 55 and above.
In order to meet increased government spending over the medium term, Budget 2015
introduced two measures to strengthen the revenue base. The first was the proposal to
allow the government to spend up to 50% of the expected long-term real returns on its net
assets managed by Temasek, on top of that by MAS and GIC. Second, personal income tax
rates were raised by 1–2% points for the top 5% of income earners. This also had the effect
of making the tax regime more progressive and thus more equitable.
For FY2015, the government has projected an overall budget deficit of $6.7 billion (1.7%
of GDP). This includes special transfers, top-ups to trust and endowment funds, and
revenue from net investment returns. The basic balance, which includes special transfers
only (excluding top-ups to endowment and trust funds), is projected to record a deficit of
$9.6 billion (2.4% of GDP).
Monetary Authority of Singapore
17
Economic Policy Group
Summary of Fiscal Position
FY 2013
FY 2014 Revised
FY 2015 Budgeted
$billion
% of GDP
$billion
% of GDP
$billion
% of GDP
Operating Revenue
57.0
14.9
61.3
15.7
64.3
16.0
Total Expenditure
51.7
13.5
57.2
14.6
68.2
17.0
Operating
Expenditure
39.7
10.4
43.3
11.1
48.7
12.1
Development
Expenditure
12.0
3.1
13.9
3.5
19.5
4.8
Primary
Surplus/Deficit (-)
5.3
1.4
4.2
1.1
(3.9)
(1.0)
Less: Special Transfers
Excluding Top-ups to
Endowment and Trust
Funds
3.0
0.8
4.3
1.1
5.7
1.4
Basic
Surplus/Deficit (-)
2.3
0.6
(0.2)
(0.0)
(9.6)
(2.4)
Less: Top-ups to
Endowment and Trust
Funds
5.6
1.5
8.5
2.2
6.0
1.5
Add: NIR Contribution
8.3
2.2
8.6
2.2
8.9
2.2
Budget
Surplus/Deficit (-)
5.0
1.3
(0.1)
(0.0)
(6.7)
(1.7)
Note: Figures may not tally due to rounding.
Source: Ministry of Finance
____________________________
Note: Labour market statistics were obtained from the Ministry of Manpower, while trade and index of industrial production
(IIP) data were provided by IE Singapore and EDB respectively. All other data in this document were obtained from the
Building and Construction Authority, Department of Statistics, or Ministry of Trade and Industry, unless otherwise stated.
Monetary Authority of Singapore
18
Economic Policy Group
Selected Indicators
GENERAL INDICATORS, 2014
Land Area (Sq km)
718.3
Li teracy Rate* (%)
Tota l Popul ati on ('000)
5,469.7
Real Per Capi ta GDP (US$)
Labour Force ('000)
3,530.8
Gross Nati onal Sa vi ngs (% of GNI)
Resi dent Labour Force Pa rti ci pa ti on Rate (%)
96.7
54,915
48.2
67.0
* Refers to resident population aged 15 years and over.
COMPONENTS OF NOMINAL GDP
SECTORAL (% of GDP), 2014
COMPONENTS OF NOMINAL GDP
EXPENDITURE (% of GDP), 2014
Manufacturi ng
18.4
Pri vate Cons umpti on
37.2
Whol esa l e & Retai l Trade
17.5
Publ i c Cons umpti on
10.1
Busi nes s Servi ces
15.8
Pri vate Gross Fi xed Capi tal Forma ti on
20.8
Fi na nce & Insurance
12.5
Publ i c Gross Fi xed Capi tal Forma ti on
4.9
6.9
Increas e i n Stocks
2.3
Cons tructi on
5.1
Net Exports of Goods & Servi ces
Informati on & Communi ca ti ons
4.0
Accommodati on & Food Servi ces
2.2
Transporta ti on & Storage
MAJOR EXPORT DESTINATIONS
(% SHARE), 2014
Tota l Exports (S$ Bi l l i on)
24.7
MAJOR ORIGINS OF IMPORTS
(% SHARE), 2014
518.9
Total Imports (S$ Bi l l i on)
463.8
Chi na
12.6
Chi na
12.1
Ma l ays i a
12.0
Mal ays i a
10.7
Hong Kong
11.0
US
10.3
Indonesi a
9.4
Ta i wan
8.2
US
5.6
South Korea
5.9
ASEAN
31.2
ASEAN
20.6
NEA-3
19.0
NEA-3
15.0
EU
11.7
EU
7.8
Source: IE Singapore
MAJOR DOMESTIC EXPORTS
BY COMMODITY (% SHARE), 2014
Domes ti c Exports (S$ Bi l l i on)
MAJOR IMPORTS
BY COMMODITY (% SHARE), 2014
273.5
Total Imports (S$ Bi l l i on)
463.8
Mi nera l Fuel s
39.1
Mi neral Fuel s
31.0
Chemi cal s
18.1
El ectroni cs
25.6
El ectroni cs
17.6
Machi nery & Trans port Equi pment (ex. El ectroni cs )
15.8
Ma chi nery & Tra ns port Equi pment (ex. El ectroni cs )
9.3
Manufactured Arti cl es
7.6
Ma nufactured Arti cl es
9.2
Chemi cal s
7.1
Ma nufactured Goods
2.4
Manufactured Goods
6.9
Source: IE Singapore
Monetary Authority of Singapore
19
Economic Policy Group
OVERALL ECONOMY
GDP at current prices (S$ bil)
GDP (US$ bil)
Real GDP Growth (YOY % change)
Real GDP Growth (QOQ SAAR % change)
By Sector (YOY % change):
1/
Manufacturing
1/
Electronics
1/
Non-electronics
Finance & Insurance
Business Services
Construction
Transportation & Storage
Information & Communications
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Services
By Expenditure Component (YOY % change):
Consumption
Private
Public
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Private
Public
External Demand
TRADE
Total Exports, fob (YOY % change)
Non-Oil Domestic Exports
Re-Exports
Total Imports, cif (YOY % change)
WAGE-PRICE INDICATORS
Unemployment Rate (SA,%)
Average Nominal Wages (S$ per month)
Consumer Price Index Inflation (YOY % change)
MAS Core Inflation (YOY % change)
2013
378.2
302.2
4.4
na
2014
390.1
307.9
2.9
na
2014 Q1
96.4
75.9
4.6
1.8
2014 Q2
96.8
77.3
2.3
-0.5
2014 Q3
97.4
77.8
2.8
2.6
2014 Q4
99.5
76.9
2.1
4.9
2015 Q1
99.1
73.1
2.8
4.1
2015 Q2
98.5
73.3
1.8
-4.0
Jun-15
na
na
na
na
Jul-15
na
na
na
na
1.7
3.5
0.9
12.2
4.9
6.3
3.5
7.6
6.7
3.3
2.6
-0.2
3.9
7.7
2.9
3.0
1.7
3.6
1.7
1.1
9.6
9.1
9.8
5.4
3.9
7.4
5.4
2.8
2.7
2.0
1.3
-5.8
4.4
5.1
2.2
3.0
2.0
3.2
1.6
0.1
1.7
0.0
2.4
9.9
2.6
1.1
0.1
4.0
2.1
1.0
-1.3
-2.8
-0.4
10.3
2.9
0.7
-0.4
4.4
0.6
1.3
-2.4
-3.6
-2.2
7.8
3.2
1.1
1.4
4.9
5.3
-0.1
-4.9
0.3
-6.9
7.1
2.0
2.5
-0.9
4.5
5.0
-0.6
-4.0
-1.8
-4.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
-6.1
-5.8
-6.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.2
3.6
11.5
1.1
1.2
0.7
4.5
2.0
2.5
0.1
-1.9
-4.5
10.4
2.1
-0.6
2.8
-9.8
-0.7
-4.1
13.4
6.9
4.9
3.1
13.6
-2.4
-5.1
11.6
2.0
1.5
1.9
-0.2
-5.6
-8.5
9.5
-0.3
2.4
2.2
3.3
1.2
-0.1
7.3
0.2
3.6
3.3
4.6
-1.0
0.2
-5.0
3.9
3.0
3.8
-0.4
4.1
2.3
12.3
0.6
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.6
-6.0
6.2
-1.6
1.1
-0.7
2.6
-0.6
7.4
-1.0
12.5
6.8
2.7
-3.4
2.3
3.0
-1.4
1.1
-2.3
-5.7
-3.8
0.5
-0.6
-6.0
-5.4
4.8
1.5
-16.1
-8.6
2.1
-5.2
-13.0
-6.2
4.5
-4.7
-4.5
-4.0
-0.8
1.6
-9.2
1.9
4,622
2.4
1.7
2.0
4,727
1.0
1.9
2.0
5,108
1.0
2.0
2.0
4,445
2.2
2.2
1.9
4,314
1.0
2.0
1.9
5,040
0.0
1.6
1.8
5,259
-0.3
1.1
2.0
4,611
-0.4
0.2
na
na
-0.3
0.2
na
na
-0.4
0.4
1.2653
1.2061
1.7452
1.3213
1.1060
1.6072
1.2605
1.2252
1.7328
1.2490
1.2326
1.7041
1.2728
1.1643
1.6157
1.3213
1.1060
1.6072
1.3765
1.1447
1.4876
1.3474
1.1014
1.5080
1.3474
1.1014
1.5080
1.3728
1.1077
1.5028
0.14
0.40
5.38
0.14
0.46
5.35
0.15
0.41
5.35
0.14
0.40
5.35
0.14
0.41
5.35
0.14
0.46
5.35
0.17
1.01
5.35
0.16
0.82
5.35
0.16
0.82
5.35
0.16
0.88
5.35
4.3
3,167.4
0.0
3.3
3,365.2
6.2
2.0
3,188.6
-3.6
0.6
3,255.7
3.3
1.9
3,276.7
3.4
3.3
3,365.2
6.2
3.9
3,447.0
8.1
3.5
3,317.3
1.9
3.5
3,317.3
1.9
2.6
3,202.5
-5.1
57,054
52,329
40,390
11,939
4,725
1.2
59,995
54,805
41,758
13,047
5,190
1.3
13,498
16,722
13,033
3,689
-3,224
-3.3
15,868
10,920
7,698
3,222
4,948
5.1
16,595
12,950
9,702
3,248
3,645
3.7
14,034
14,214
11,326
2,888
-179
-0.2
14,340
18,565
13,960
4,605
-4,224
-4.3
16,857
12,127
7,988
4,140
4,730
4.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
17.9
24.6
-1.4
-3.1
-2.3
-11.9
11.9
-21.8
4.4
-6.4
6.0
273,065
8.8
19.1
24.8
-0.4
-3.0
-2.3
-16.1
8.7
-17.2
4.0
-11.7
2.2
256,860
8.4
16.2
21.8
0.0
-3.2
-2.4
-14.5
7.7
-27.6
2.9
2.5
0.5
272,941
8.7
18.4
25.5
-1.4
-3.3
-2.3
-12.4
8.4
-37.4
3.1
13.4
4.8
277,967
8.8
22.4
26.6
0.5
-2.3
-2.3
-19.8
5.6
-4.9
3.7
-24.3
3.5
266,142
8.5
19.2
25.3
-0.6
-3.1
-2.3
-17.6
13.1
0.5
6.2
-37.5
0.1
256,860
8.4
27.4
31.8
0.4
-2.4
-2.4
-30.8
9.2
-17.3
5.0
-27.7
-1.3
248,404
8.6
23.4
27.7
0.5
-2.4
-2.4
-19.3
6.7
-12.6
7.4
-20.8
2.7
253,280
9.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
253,280
9.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
250,116
9.3
2/
FINANCIAL INDICATORS
S$ Exchange Rate Against: (end-period)
US Dollar
100 Japanese Yen
Euro
Interest Rates (end-period, % p.a.)
3-month Fixed Deposit Rate
3-month S$ SIBOR
Prime Lending Rate
Money Supply (end-period)
Broad Money, M2 (YOY % change)
Straits Times Index (end-period)
YOY % change
3/
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
Operating Revenue (S$ mil)
Total Expenditure (S$ mil)
Operating Expenditure
Development Expenditure
Primary Surplus/Deficit (S$ mil)
% of GDP
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Goods Balance
Services Balance
Primary Income Balance
Secondary Income Balance
Capital & Fin Account Balance (% of GDP)
Direct Investment
Portfolio Investment
Financial Derivatives
Other Investment
Overall Balance (% of GDP)
4/
Official Foreign Reserves (US$ mil)
Months of Imports
Source:
1/
Index of Industrial Production from EDB.
2/
3/
4/
Straits Times Index from SGX. All other indicators from MAS.
Ministry of Finance
MAS
na : Not a va i l a bl e
Monetary Authority of Singapore
20
Economic Policy Group