Download First quarter economic growth 0.9 percent in 2004

Statistics Netherlands
Press release
PB04-103
1 July 2004
9:30 AM
First quarter economic growth 0.9 percent in
2004
The Dutch economy grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2004. For the first
time since December 2002, the volume of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
exceeded that of the previous year. This is what the second estimate of the
Quarterly Accounts at Statistics Netherlands show. The result is up 0.1
percentage point on the first estimate in May.
The slight GDP increase in the first quarter of 2004 can be attributed to an
increase in exports and investments. Household and government consumption
were about the same as the year before.
The economic growth rates of the previous three years are adjusted on the
basis of more and better information, as happens every year.
Quarter-on-quarter growth improved
The first quarter of 2004 had and extra working day because 2004 is a leap
year. The volume of GDP in the first quarter of 2004, corrected for calendar
and other seasonal influences, was up 0.7 percent on the fourth quarter of
2003. The quarter-on-quarter growth was upwardly adjusted from the first
estimate in May, when the growth rate was estimated at 0.4 percent.
The first quarter of 2004 is the third quarter in a row in which the Dutch
economy showed positive growth. A growth rate of this magnitude has not
occurred for four years. The quarter-on-quarter figures show the recovery of
the economy after a period of negative growth much faster than the year-onyear changes.
www.cbs.nl
Increase in exports and imports
The volume of the exports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2004
increased by 2.3 percent on the same quarter of 2003. The increase occurred
in Dutch manufactured goods and in re-exports. The volume of imports was up
by 2.1 percent.
Investments rising
In the first quarter of 2004 the volume of investments in fixed capital formation
was up 4.3 percent on the previous year. This is partly because a larger
number of airplanes was delivered to Dutch companies. The good weather
helped raise investments in construction. There were more investments in
computers and commercial vehicles, but less in machinery and installations.
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 1 of 6
Growth of government consumption slowing down
In the first quarter of 2004 the volume of government consumption was slightly
lower than in the same quarter of 2003. This is a break in the upward trend of
previous years. Part of the decrease is due to the shift of care expenditure
from government to private households. Without this shift, government
consumption would have increased by 0.5 percent. However, this is still
substantially lower than real growth in 2003. Real expenditure on public
government and education in the first quarter of 2004 was about the same as
the year before.
Household consumption stable
Households spent about the same in the first quarter of 2004 as in the first
quarter of 2003. In the previous three quarters consumption was down. The
volume of the consumption of services increased slightly in the first quarter
partly because the increase in the contribution to care.
Expenditure on goods was down on the previous year. The largest decrease
was in the expenditure on durables. The purchase of furniture and other
household furnishings lagged behind.
Recovery of production mainly among producers of goods
In most commercial branches of industry the production was higher in the first
quarter of 2004 than of 2003. The change from falling to rising production is
most evident in the manufacturing industry and construction, but also trade
and transport showed a slight recovery in production. Within manufacturing it
was again the chemical industry that realised the largest increase. Production
in the metal industry grew for the first time in two and a half years.
Production was positively influenced across the board by the one extra
working day, and in construction there was also the good weather.
Outside the commercial sector growth diminished substantially. Production in
care grew less than before and government production was actually down
Upwardly adjusted economic growth for 2001 and 2002,
downwardly adjusted in 2003
In July of each year the figures of the three previous years are adjusted on the
basis of more and better information. Dutch economic growth for 2001 and
2002 were adjusted to 1.4 and 0.6 percent. From the previously published
figures of 1.2 and 0.2 percent. The negative growth for 2003, however, was
adjusted to 0.9 percent instead of the previously published 0.7 percent.
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 2 of 6
Bruto binnenlands product: volume
mld euro
%
7
94
6
93
5
92
4
91
3
90
2
89
1
88
0
87
-1
86
-2
85
-3
84
I
II
III IV
1999
I
II
III IV
I
2000
II
III IV
2001
I
II
III IV
I
2002
II
III IV
2003
I
2004
%-mutatie t.o.v. dezelfde periode een jaar eerder (links)
seizoengecorrigeerd, mld euro in prijzen 1995 (rechts)
GDP volume
Percentage - billion euros
Year on year percentage changes
Seasonally corrected figures, billion euro in 1995 prices
Source: CBS
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 3 of 6
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product (market prices)
Changes on
Same period last year
Previous period 1)
Volume changes in %
2001
2002
2003
1.4
0.6
-0.9
.
.
.
2001-I
II
III
IV
2002-I
II
III
IV
2003-I
II
III
IV
2004-I
1.8
1.9
1.3
0.7
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.5
-0.2
-1.4
-1.4
-0.5
0.9
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.8
0.2
0.6
0.7
1) Corrected for seasonal and calendar influences.
Source: CBS
Table 2: Goods and services totals, annual figures
2003
2000
2001
billion
euro
2002
2003
Year-on-year volume changes %
Consumption expenditure
of which by households
by government
Fixed capital formation
Changes in stocks
339.6
224.3
115.3
91.6
0.1
3.1
3.5
2.0
1.4
.
2.4
1.4
4.8
0.2
.
2.0
1.3
3.6
-3.6
.
0.0
-0.9
1.8
-3.1
.
National expenditure
431.4
2.6
1.8
0.5
-0.5
Exports goods and services
Imports goods and services
279.4
256.6
11.3
10.5
1.6
2.2
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.6
Gross Domestic Product
454.3
3.5
1.4
0.6
-0.9
Source: CBS
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 4 of 6
Table 3: Goods and services totals
2003
2003
I
II
III
2004
I
IV
Year-on-year volume changes %
Consumption expenditure
of which by households
by government
Fixed capital formation
Changes in stocks 1)
0.0
-0.9
1.8
-3.1
0.0
0.7
0.2
1.9
-5.0
0.5
-0.1
-0.8
1.2
-4.8
-0.9
-0.6
-1.5
1.4
-3.9
1.1
-0.2
-1.6
2.6
1.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
4.3
0.4
National expenditure
-0.5
-0.2
-0.9
-1.2
0.2
0.8
0.0
0.6
0.9
1.0
-1.2
-0.2
-0.9
-0.6
1.0
2.3
2.3
2.1
-0.9
-0.2
-1.4
-1.4
-0.5
0.9
Exports goods and services
Imports goods and services
Gross Domestic Product
1) As a percentage of GDP in constant prices.
Source: CBS
Table 4: Value end price developments of GDP (market prices)
Value
Value change
Price change
Billion
euro
year-on-year %
2001
2002
2003
429.3
445.2
454.3
6.7
3.7
2.0
5.2
3.1
3.0
2001-I
II
III
IV
2002-I
II
III
IV
2003-I
II
III
IV
2004-I
104.8
109.6
104.5
110.5
108.2
113.3
109.1
114.5
111.6
116.1
109.9
116.6
113.9
8.0
7.2
6.4
5.4
3.3
3.4
4.5
3.6
3.1
2.5
0.8
1.8
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.1
4.6
2.9
3.0
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.9
2.2
2.4
1.1
Source: CBS
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 5 of 6
Statistics Netherlands Press release PB04-103
page 6 of 6