Download Understanding the Factors of Animal Disease Emergence: A World

Understanding the Factors of
Animal Disease Emergence: A
World of One Health
Brussels, Belgium
October 17, 2008
Emerging Animal Diseases
LONNIE J KING DVM, MS, MPA, DACVPM
DIRECTOR, NATIONAL CENTER FOR ZOONOTIC, VECTOR--BORNE, &
ENTERIC DISEASES
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION
Convergence Model
Genetic and
Biological
Factors
Physical and
Environmental
Factors
Animals
EID
Humans
Wildlife
Social, Political,
and Economic
Factors
Ecological
Factors
Why Diseases Emerge
Genetic and biological factors
– Microbial adaptation and change
– Human susceptibility to Infection
Physical environmental factors
– Climate and weather
– Economic development and land use
Ecological factors
– Changing ecosystems
– Human demographics and behavior
Social, political, and economic factors
–
–
–
–
–
International Travel and commerce
Poverty and Social inequity
War and Famine
Lack of political will
Intent to harm
Factors Contributing to Emerging
Animal Diseases
Movements of animals and people
Disruption of the environment
Crossing species boundaries
Invasive Species
Human lifestyle changes
Husbandry and production systems
Global food system
Climate change
Global Trends in Emerging Infection Diseases (EID)
335 EID events: 1940-2004
Steady increase with peak decade in 1980
20.9% drug-resistant microbes
22.8% vector-borne (28.8% in the last decade)
Jones, K.E. et al Global trends in emerging infectious disease Nature 451:21 2/2008
Stages of Pathogen Evolution
Source: Wolfe, ND, et al. Nature. May 2007.
Foresight Analysis
EID are the “New normal”
Expect 3-4 new EID annually; 8-34 by 2015
87 new EID since 1980
- 58 viruses… 49 RNA
- mostly zoonotic
Found worldwide but proximity to animal
populations or products is the key risk factor
Change in the host-pathogen ecology will be the
most important single driver
The Convergence: A New Public Health Kaleidoscope
Emphasizing One Health
Human Health
Animal Health
Environmental
Health
ONE HEALTH
One Health is the collaborative effort of
multiple disciplines – working locally,
nationally and globally - to attain optimal
health of humans, animals and our
environment.
•Translocation
•Encroachment
•Introduction
•“Spill over”
&
•“Spill back”
•Wildlife
•Domestic
•Animal
•Agricultural
•Extensive Production
Triple Threat—
Infectious Diseases
•Human
•Human encroachment
•Ex situ contact
•Ecological manipulation
•Human behaviors
•Global travel
•Urbanization
•Biomedical
•manipulation
•Food processing/distribution
•Technology and
•After Daszak P. et.al.
•Industry
•Science 2000 287:443
Concepts of (Re)Emergence
Microbes in search of disease
“Spill-over” phenomenon
Translocation
Invasive species
Anti-microbial resistance
Pathogen pollution
Signalment: microbial chatter
The Convergence: A New Public Health Kaleidoscope
Emphasizing One Health
Human
Health
Animal
Health
Environmental
Health
Through the Lens of Human Health
Trends in Global Population
Global Population: 1950-2015
Total
Less developed countries
More developed countries
Billions
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 1950
55
60
65
70
75
Source: US Bureau of the Census
80
85
90
95 2000 05
10
15
PNAS, 2004
Human Demographics
Migration and Translocation is unparalleled
Peri-Urban centers
Immuno-compromised population
Aging population- “baby boomers”
Rapid growth in developing world
Exposures to wildlife and vectors
Recreational practices
Shift to foods from animal-proteins
Under-nutrition vs. Over-nutrition
Healthcare vs. health promotion and
prevention
Health disparities and exposure bias
The Convergence: A New Public Health Kaleidoscope
Emphasizing One Health
Human
Health
Animal
Health
Environmental
Health
Through the Lens of Animal Health
Concentrated Animal Feeding
Operations (CAFOs)
Their Impact on Food Safety and
Healthy Environments
Livestock 2020 –
The Next Food Revolution
Global increase and demand for protein and
food of animal origin
Shift from poverty of 1-2 billion people to
middle class
“Westernization” of Asia and Latin America
Concerns with sustainability
Increases in emerging zoonoses through the
concentration of people and animals
Last year, over 21 billion food
animals were produced to help feed
a population of over 6 billion people
resulting in trillions of pounds of
products distributed worldwide.
Projections toward 2020 indicate
that the demand for animal protein
will increase by 50%, especially in
developing countries.
“Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron
bubble.”
William Shakespeare
Commerce and Trade - A New
Built Environment of Global
Enterprises
World of “collapsed space” – smaller, faster and
progressively more interconnected
Annual global trade (2006) - $12 trillion
6% annual growth projected
90% of global trade is between private
corporations
Of the top 100 global economies, over half are
private international companies
6 million food shipments come into the U.S.
each year with a small % inspected
Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated
Worldwide Ship Traffic
Nipah Virus
Virus Carriers
Fruit bats
Peri-urban Slums
Human population density
Poultry population density
Source: FAO, WHO, Rimsa,
Rimsa, Mexico City April 2005
Human and animal density
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Distance to Bangkok (km)
human population (nb/km2/10)
soybean (10 tons/km2)
maize (tons/km2)
chicken (nb/km2/10)
pigs (nb/km2/10)
cassava (tons/km2/2)
Source: Gerber and others 2005.
500
Mean normalized crop production
Human and livestock densities, and main feed production
areas as affected by the distance to Bangkok
Microbial View
Annual Global Trade in Exotic
Animals
4 million birds
640,000 reptiles
40,000 primates
Illegal trade unknown – estimate $4-6 billion
Wildlife Conservation Society
Foodborne illness Top 10
infections
Image source: CDC/Google
Campylobacter
Salmonella
Clostridium
perfringens
Giardia lamblia
Staphylococcus
Toxoplasma gondii
Shigella
Yersinia
enterocolitica
E coli O157:H7
Ecosystem
• 1/3 of the world’s population lives in scarce fresh water areas.
• By 2025 2/3 of the world’s population will live in scarce fresh
water areas.
• 70% of our planet’s surface represents total water resources
yet only 2.5% is fresh water.
• Every year more than 3.4 million people die as a result of water
related diseases.
• 4,000 children die every day of diseases from ingestion of filthy
water.
Ecotone
The edge or transition zone between
two adjacent ecological systems
Man-made Ecotone
Along Route 3 in Laos
• Winding through rice
paddies, tea plantation, and
villages in Malaysia, Thailand,
Laos, and China, the road
mirrors an ancient trade route
linking Southeast Asia to the
southern branches of the Silk
Road.
Route 3 makes it possible to
drive from Singapore to
Beijing.
The road rarely follows a straight line as
it meanders through rice fields and tea
plantations.
Challenges of transboundary transmission of
communicable diseases,
environmental degradation,
and illegal migration are being
addressed.
Photo: Justin Mott for The New York Times
C. gattii on Vancouver Island*
First detected in animals
High incidence of human
infection (27.9 cases per
million per year)
Isolated from numerous
environmental samples
Continues to infect wild
(Including marine) and
companion animals as
well as humans
Human Cases
Animal Cases
*http://www.bccdc.org/downloads/pdf/epid/reports/C.gattii%20Surveillance%20Summary%
20BC%201999-2006.pdf
Threats to Biodiversity
Sixth Mass Extinction: 4 Billion Yr?
Human destruction of ecosytems
Overexploitation of species
Human overpopulation
Spread of agriculture: animal agriculture is
70% of total carbon footprint
Pollution
National Ecological Observatory
Network (NEON)
A continental-scale research
platform for discovering and
understanding the impacts
of climate change, land-use
change, and invasive
species on ecology.
Gathers long-term data on
ecological responses of the
biosphere to changes in land
use and climate, and on
feedbacks with the
geosphere, hydrosphere,
and atmosphere.
Nature watch: a network of stations will measure the impact of human
activity and invasive species on ecosystems on a huge scale.
Past Challenges:
Lessons Learned
West Nile virus
H5N1 avian influenza
Ebola virus in gorillas
SARS
Nipah virus
Lyme disease
Whirling disease
Chytridicomycosis
MRSA
One Health
Integration of Professionals: Multiple disciplines working together
toward the goal of optimal health for all.