Download Countries in Transition: Uganda: Change for the better?

Countries in Transition: Uganda: Change for the better?
Speaker: Alan Sverrisson, Caledonian University
IDF meeting held 3 March 1999
Popularly thought of as the epitome of Africa in crisis - war, poverty, dictatorship (Idi Amin,
though Obote's regime is said to have killed more people), famine, AIDS, and now kidnap of
tourists - Uganda can also be seen as an example of unfulfilled potential - the 'pearl of
Africa'.
Renaissance
in fact, the country has been stable since 1986, and has emerged as a beacon of hope - in
terms of economic recovery - in the eyes of Western donors, the World Bank in particular.
Growth figures remain among the highest in SSA. Uganda has been seen as the centre-piece
of a wider "African renaissance" - Museveni can claim to have led the first insurgent
movement to take effective power from an incumbent African government. However, there
are some ambiguities. Alan Sverrisson concentrated on four areas: economic recovery,
reducing poverty, resolving civil conflict and war, and democratisation.
Background
Before colonisation, the territory contained three broad 'ethnic' types. But there were
massive cultural and political differences between them - notably emnity between the two
biggest kingdoms, Bunyoro and Buganda. Racial ideology lay at the heart of British colonial
policy. The Baganda were seen as the best administrators, northerners, especially black
Sudanese as the best soldiers, easterners as ideal policemen and so on. The only petty
capitalists allowed were the Asians. These divisions remained after independence.
Economic recovery
The Ugandan economy collapsed between 1971 and 1980. Coffee and cotton exports
plummetted to a fraction of their former levels. In Kampala reverse migration occurred.
Things appeared to recover briefly under Obote, but in retrospect, things appear merely to be
bouncing on the bottom. Under Museveni, the economy has grown massively, with growth
reaching 10% in 1994-5. However, actual GDP per capita is no higher than when Amin took
power.
1970 1986 1997
GDP index
100
94
190
GDP index per capita 100
58
84
Expulsion of Asians in the early 1970s resulted in collapse of the petty bourgeois
economy - shops were closed or empty.
Marketing boards for cotton and coffee became increasingly predatory, and ultimately
useless. Farmers therefore returned to subsistence agriculture, growing staple crops for their
own survival - the easiest tactic during the terror was to keep oneself to oneself.
Under Amin, the formal economy collapsed, and the informal took over. Since
Museveni, the government's liberalisation policy has meant that the informal economy has
become the formal. Exchange rates are decided in foreign exchange bureaux in a small part of
downtown Kampala, and can vary hourly. There are several parallel economies operating in
Uganda. Much of the economy is fraudulent. Much is hidden, and difficult to regulate - it is
difficult to imagine investment or how developmental progress can be made.
Corruption is a major problem of this informalisation . Most earnings by public sector
employees are from informal activities, whether bribes, kick-backs, or outside business
interests. There is a proposal to bring in a living wage, but progress is very slow. Out of 85
countries in a survey of perceived corruption by Transparency International, Uganda came
73rd. A recent survey in Kampala showed that 64% of urban Ugandans considered the
current government to be the most corrupt in the country's history. However, this last survey
may be a result of resentment at the lack of distribution of the benefits of economic growth.
But, the informal economy works better than many other sectors: two good examples are
the shared taxi (in Kenya called matatu) businesses, and local breweries and distilleries: in
Kibaale District, local gin (waragi) - sold all over Uganda, and into Congo, and Sudan.
The principal economic problems faced by Uganda remain similar to those faced 25
years ago: small-holder agriculture, with cash crops as side concerns by subsistence farmers
resistant to diversification; dependence on a few commodities (coffee, cotton, tea); and low
quality.
Recent years have added more issues:
1. War, predatory government and AIDS have wiped out much of the productive
population;
2. Liberalisation has eliminated the monopoly agricultural marketing boards farm gate prices have increased, but marketing remains a problem;
3. ) Declining social provision: health and education have both been declining
since 1970, although recently more attention is being paid to them;
4. Uganda's debt problem and the decline of state sector means Uganda is now
highly dependent on external aid.
Reducing Poverty
Uganda remains one of the poorest countries in the world - many Ugandans live on less
than 50p a day. However, the percentage in absolute poverty is said to have fallen (1992 56%; 1996 - 46%).
Human development statistics show a relative and steady increase, albeit slow and
infant mortality has declined. The poverty discourse in government has moved from
alleviation in the early 1990s, to reduction in the mid 1990s, to the current strategy aimed at
poverty eradication. Poverty eradication is now the main priority of the Ugandan government.
In 1997 a Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) was produced. The PEAP has five basic
strategies to eradicate poverty: macro-economic growth; broad-based growth, focussing
public expenditure on increasing economic opportunities; basic social services; a quick
response to disaster or economic problems; the establishment of a secure, just and democratic
political order.
Solving civil and international conflict
Museveni has had to deal with political violence, and legacy of violent government,
international tension and emnity, ethnic tensions, alienation from government, and lack
of national identity. Political violence is both a cause and a symptom of the crisis.
symptom of Uganda's crisis. Sub-nationalisms have been partly appeased by the Museveni
government. The traditional kingdoms have been restored to some functions, and an element
of constitutional government has been introduced.
Democratisation: 'No party' politics vs participatory local democracy
Participatory local democracy
Museveni instigated system of resistance councils (RCs) - now known as local councils (LCs)
- during the bush war in Luweero. This allowed voice at local level, and was derived from
Maoist thought. However, although the lowest levels could influence the top with great
difficulty, the leaders were not in complete control, and the system has always allowed for
expression, and participation in politics. Every citizen is a member of their village local
council (LC1), and there are LCs at parish (LC2), sub-county (LC3), county (LC4) and
District level (LC5).
'No-party' democracy
The National Resistance Movement (NRM) system was designed to be all inclusive. Now it
is becoming a political party, rather than an all-embracing movement. Nevertheless, the
Movement remains the only organisation allowed to formally contest elections - although
there is tacit awareness of the party status of opposition candidates.
Conclusions
1. People tend to be either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic when
discussing Africa. In Uganda, although the country is in a much better
position today, and this appears to be the best government since independence,
that is not saying much, and there is clearly a long way to go.
2. Poverty, or the feeling of powerlessness is at the heart of Uganda's
problem. Addressing this is vital, but this paper argues that current policy,
and the liberal economic framework in place at the moment, makes the
eradication of poverty in Uganda unlikely..
[Reporter: Max Dixon]